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MOBILE USAGE BASKETS TO MEASURE ICT SECTOR PERFORMANCE
Research ICT Solutions
ITS SEOUL 2018
REGULATION IS ALL ABOUT FAIR COMPETITION
RIS
Prices = indicator for competition
Cost based termination rates = fair competition + lower retail prices
Market studies & dominance determination
to safeguard fair competition and
reasonable retail prices
Price matches demand & supply
High prices = ineffective
competition
Prices below cost= predatory prices
GLOBAL INDICES ARE NOT SUITABLE TO MEASURE ICT SECTOR PERFORMANCE
• They are not being collected frequently enough - annually with huge time lag
• They mostly capture GDP per capita • Affordability indices cannot explain price differences
between countries • Highly correlated to prices as a share of GDP per capita • A change in affordability index is result of changes in
GDP per capita or foreign exchange fluctuations or both not sector performance
RIS
ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT -3I (2017)
RIS
GD
P pe
r Cap
ita in
USD
(cur
rent
pric
es)
0
15,000
30,000
45,000
60,000
3i Index points
0 25 50 75 100
R² = 0.8479
85% of index variation explained by GDP per capita
GSMA - MOBILE CONNECTIVITY INDEX (2017)
RIS
GD
P pe
r Cap
ita in
USD
(cur
rent
pric
es)
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
MCI Index points
0 22.5 45 67.5 90
R² = 0.8673
87% of index variation explained by GDP per capita
OECD 30 CALLS 100 SMS BASKET
RIS
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Q4 2015
Q1 2016
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Q4 2016
Q1 2017
Q2 2017
14.414.814.1
12.4
9.0 8.6 8.5 8.1 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.4 5.9 5.9
7.9
4.3 3.9 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.6
3.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2
Cheapest in Africa USD Cheapest in Namibia USD
https://www.cran.na/images/docs/economics/CRAN_Quarterly_Newsletter_Q2_2017.pdf
GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATION TRENDS
RIS
GLOBAL TREND 1: SMARTPHONES ARE REPLACING PCS
RIS
Smar
t pho
nes
sales
to e
nd u
sers
in m
illion
0
400
800
1200
1600
Unit
sales
to g
loba
l PC
mar
ket i
n m
illion
0
90
180
270
360
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Unit sales to global PC market (millions)Smartphones sales to end users (millions)
153714961424
1245
968
680
472
297172139122
SEPARATION OF MOBILE ACCESS AND SERVICE PLATFORMS
RIS
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
100%40%30%20%
60%70%
80%
100%Voice + SMS Data
TRENDS IN MOBILE DATA• Because voice and SMS revenues are declining, operators are
looking at mechanisms to drive data usage • In Q3 2015, Digi Malaysia introduced free basic internet • All subscribers get 500MB of data for free throttled at 64kpbs • Data usage has grown by 257% between 2015 and 2017
RIS
2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1
5
3.93.2
2.82.3
1.81.51.41.4
Data usage in GB (Source: Digi Malaysia, annual reports)
TRENDS IN MOBILE DATA
• Bundling different flavours of data: • Uncapped slow data (64-640 Kbps) • Social media data • Video streaming • Late night access • Wifi access • Purpose linked data for specific applications, often
operator developed OTTs
RIS
ACTUAL USER BEHAVIOUR• Mobile user in Global South combine packages of their
operator: Best prepaid package + top up bundle (voice, SMS and data)
• Or even use different packages (SIM cards) across operators:1 SIM for voice and 1 for data
• Out of bundles calling, texting and data use often only for emergencies
• RIS captures all bundles and top up products that contain data or an MNO and combines it with the best prepaid package available for that MNO
RIS
RIS PRICE MONITORING• Database currently covers Africa, Latin America and
South- and South-East Asia (+ 8: China, Jamaica, Haiti, Yemen, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Dominican Republic and Jordan)
• Monthly data, prepaid, top-ups and bundles
RIS
Countries Operators Total products Active productsAfrica 53 265 2472 1482
Southern Asia 9 65 389 297South-Eastern Asia 11 90 504 379Southern America 12 77 245 140Central America 8 27 328 216
Additional 8 23 172 172Total 101 547 4110 2686
OECD BASKETS DEC 2017• The new mobile OECD basket definitions from December 2017:
• No data use (2 baskets) • Low data and message use (5 baskets) • High data and message use (5 baskets)
• Various call durations • On-net, off-net and fixed line calls • Peak, off peak and off off peak
• SMS split between destination and time of day • 7 new mobile data baskets, ranging in volume from 0.5 GB to 50 GB • The default validity is 30 days, but shorter validities can be included
by multiplying the price per period with the number of periods in a 30 day month
RIS
RIS
Minutes 50 50 50 188 188 188 577 577 1795 1795
SMS 10 20 10 20 40 20 80 40 160 80
Data GB 0.1 0.5 0.5 2 1 5 2 10
Iran 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 6.25 13.03 15.01 33.94 42.70
Indonesia 0.33 1.99 1.88 1.05 2.82 2.60 4.97 4.78 6.11 5.22
Bangladesh 0.40 1.48 1.87 1.21 3.02 4.52 4.97 9.49 14.33 24.37
Sri Lanka 0.63 1.26 1.26 1.85 2.50 4.00 6.87 12.10 24.09 27.80
Nepal 0.64 1.19 1.11 1.78 2.37 2.23 9.47 9.18 30.83 30.77
India 0.68 1.32 1.40 2.30 2.85 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30 3.30
Myanmar 0.87 1.40 1.47 2.96 3.88 5.48 10.95 15.37 31.26 40.54
Pakistan 1.10 1.70 2.62 2.70 4.50 4.50 11.31 11.02 32.17 39.19
Malaysia 1.37 7.51 7.32 4.77 11.71 10.69 18.33 16.81 21.39 22.13
Bhutan 1.45 3.19 3.15 5.34 7.58 10.01 19.62 24.06 55.50 61.26
Afghanistan 1.49 2.87 2.66 5.08 7.08 11.21 17.55 26.57 66.82 70.27
Thailand 1.51 3.01 2.33 4.25 6.70 10.82 19.88 21.95 47.70 45.32
Vietnam 1.65 4.22 5.15 5.99 11.46 12.13 28.44 33.71 82.05 112.43
Jordan 1.83 4.23 4.23 6.15 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 12.93 12.93
Kazakhstan 1.99 4.44 4.16 6.98 10.27 9.72 26.51 25.40 70.34 69.54
Maldives 2.49 11.39 11.25 8.53 23.07 22.72 41.76 51.36 99.49 149.61
Cambodia 2.80 4.05 3.75 10.00 11.55 13.00 32.20 34.34 97.55 120.48
Yemen 3.23 3.99 7.98 3.99 7.98 29.68 48.01 71.38 129.18
China 4.32 4.32 4.32
Singapore 4.42 8.59 12.00 14.40 14.40 22.74 20.63 69.39 87.01
Laos 4.98 6.36 8.58 11.88 11.88 22.01 43.27 59.71 161.28 178.90
Brunei Darussalam 5.43 13.39 13.01 15.15 22.73 22.73 22.73 68.19 22.73 68.19
Turkey 6.56 6.56 6.56 6.56 6.56 6.82 7.09 9.97 69.69 75.73
Timor-Leste 7.03 11.85 11.15 15.00 30.27 34.59 86.76 102.11 242.58 266.98
Philippines 7.16 11.73 11.54 26.58 31.35 32.40 87.77 89.42 258.36
ASIA Q1 2018
OECD BASKETS (2017 DEF) IN USD
GREEN = 2 CHEAPEST
RED = 2 MOST EXPENSIVE
RIS
100MB 500MB 1GB 2GB 5GB 10GB 20GB
Iran 0.15 0.15 3.00 3.00 5.10 12.00 16.50
Myanmar 0.39 0.60 1.18 2.37 6.24 12.49 31.61
Indonesia 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 2.21 2.21 2.21
India 0.47 0.82 0.82 1.62 2.48 2.48 2.48
Bangladesh 0.56 1.43 1.45 3.05 5.09 10.91 15.27
Pakistan 0.60 1.44 1.44 1.44 4.50 6.17
Afghanistan 0.72 0.72 1.42 4.31 6.90 10.35 14.37
Thailand 0.81 0.81 4.75 5.64 9.46 9.46 9.46
Sri Lanka 0.82 0.82 1.15 1.64 6.45 10.92 16.09
Cambodia 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Nepal 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04
Vietnam 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09
Laos 1.20 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.60 5.14 18.00
Bhutan 1.55 1.55 3.11 4.67 7.80 10.92 15.61
Kazakhstan 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 4.30 6.15 9.24
Yemen 2.79 5.98 9.97 15.96 35.90
Turkey 3.67 3.94 5.77 6.82 9.97 13.12 47.25
Singapore 3.79 7.58 7.58 10.61 21.22
China 3.93 3.93 3.93 5.50 12.58 37.42 61.00
Malaysia 4.05 4.05 4.05 6.75 6.75 8.10 8.10
Jordan 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.23 4.23 7.05 13.08
Timor-Leste 4.29 4.29 7.50 7.50 25.00 40.00 100.00
Philippines 4.37 4.37 5.81 5.81 8.25
Maldives 6.80 6.80 10.23 13.67 23.97 61.75 68.62
Brunei Darussalam 7.58 7.58 7.58 15.15 26.52 37.88 49.25
ASIA Q1 2018
MOBILE PREPAID DATA COSTS FOR MONTHLY USE IN USD
GREEN = 2 CHEAPEST
RED = 2 MOST EXPENSIVE
OECD 2017 DEFINITIONS• Cover a broad range of user profiles • Ranking mostly changes with the cost of data, it would be
possible to reduce the number of baskets • The highest usage baskets for data also contain large allocations
of voice minutes • It would be unlikely for someone that uses 10GB of data to
also use 1795 voice minutes • OECD prices may be too high:
• Cheaper to purchase multiples of smaller packages to make up a larger data package.
• OECD baskets do not capture how people actually use the internet
• Baskets are not able to capture trends such as separation of access and service platforms
RIS
ASIAN COUNTRIES WITH DIFFERING AVERAGE MB PRICE FOR REGULAR DATA AND PURPOSE LINKED DATA
RIS
Indonesia
Iran
Sri Lanka
Maldives
Malaysia
Philippines
Singapore
Thailand 0.57
1.54
0.56
0.15
0.51
0.12
0.2
0.12
0.22
0.85
0.52
0.1
0.49
0.06
0.1
0.05
Lowest cost per MB in US cents for all types of dataLowest cost per MB in US cents for regular data (not purpose linked)
RIS
Sri Lanka
Iran
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Bhutan
Nepal
Myanmar
Vietnam
Indonesia
Maldives
Malaysia
India
Laos
Philippines
Afghanistan
Kazakhstan
Cambodia
Thailand
Brunei Darussalam
Singapore
Timor-Leste 5.25
3.79
3.79
3.17
3.00
2.78
2.16
1.94
1.80
1.55
1.40
1.30
1.10
0.98
0.75
0.73
0.47
0.45
0.42
0.30
0.13
ASIA Q1 2018
CHEAPEST RATE FOR 1 SMS IN US CENTS
Indonesia
India
Bangladesh
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Myanmar
Pakistan
Thailand
Iran
Malaysia
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Vietnam
Kazakhstan
Maldives
Cambodia
Singapore
Laos
Brunei Darussalam
Timor-Leste
Philippines 13.93
12.33
10.10
9.60
8.08
5.00
4.36
3.40
3.05
2.78
2.40
2.29
1.70
1.58
1.49
1.46
0.97
0.84
0.60
0.54
0.44
CHEAPEST RATE FOR 1 MINUTE IN US CENTS
India
Bhutan
Sri Lanka
Myanmar
Indonesia
Cambodia
Kazakhstan
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Iran
Malaysia
Vietnam
Nepal
Afghanistan
Laos
Thailand
Brunei Darussalam
Maldives
Philippines
Timor-Leste
Singapore 1.54
1.20
0.56
0.51
0.49
0.45
0.43
0.41
0.39
0.25
0.24
0.24
0.23
0.19
0.19
0.14
0.13
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
CHEAPEST AVERAGE 1 MB RATE FOR 1 MB BASED ON OPERATOR AVERAGE RATES
SEPARATION OF ACCESS AND SERVICE PLATFORMS INDEX: SASP
RIS
SASP Index = (Price for 1 SMS + Price 1 minute) / Price 1 MB
MEASURING SEPARATION OF ACCESS AND SERVICE PLATFORMS
• Measure progress towards the separation of mobile access and service platforms
• If 1 MB of data is vastly cheaper than 1 voice minute or 1 SMS, then OTT use is encouraged
• The index is calculated on country level, based on the cheapest rate in the country so that the data can be easily compiled based on existing ITU data
• RIS can also compute it for all operators within a country to analyse business model
RIS
RIS
South and South East Asia - cheapest rates available in a country for Q1 2018 US cents Number of MBs
per 1 SMSNumber of MBs
per 1 minute
SASP (Price for 1 SMS + Price 1
minute) / Price 1 MB1 SMS 1 Minute 1 MB
Afghanistan 2.16 2.40 0.41 5.3 5.9 11.1
Bangladesh 0.42 0.60 0.19 7.5 3.2 5.4
Bhutan 0.47 2.78 0.12 3.9 23.2 27.1
Brunei 3.79 10.10 0.49 7.7 20.6 28.3
Cambodia 3.00 5.00 0.14 21.4 35.7 57.1
India 1.55 0.54 0.12 12.9 4.5 17.4
Indonesia 1.10 0.44 0.13 8.5 3.4 11.8
Iran 0.30 1.70 0.24 1.3 7.1 8.3
Laos 1.80 9.60 0.43 4.2 22.3 26.5
Malaysia 1.40 2.29 0.24 5.8 9.5 15.4
Maldives 1.30 4.36 0.51 2.5 8.5 11.1
Myanmar 0.75 1.46 0.12 6.3 12.2 18.4
Nepal 0.73 0.84 0.39 1.9 2.2 4.0
Pakistan 0.45 1.49 0.23 2.0 6.5 8.4
Philippines 1.94 13.93 0.56 3.5 24.9 28.3
Singapore 3.79 8.08 1.54 2.5 5.2 7.7
Sri Lanka 0.13 0.97 0.12 1.1 8.1 9.2
Thailand 3.17 1.58 0.45 7.0 3.5 10.6
Timor-Leste 5.25 12.33 1.20 4.4 10.3 14.7
Vietnam 0.98 3.05 0.25 3.9 12.2 16.1
CONCLUSION• The 2017 OECD baskets are a welcomed
modification • The new baskets acknowledge the importance of
mobile data • However, OECD baskets prices look more expensive
than they actually are • When affordability is the prime motivation, OTTs are
dominant and therefore data baskets are the key metric
• We propose a simple index, SASP, that can be compiled using ITU data, to measure the drivers of the separation of mobile access and service platforms
RIS
RIS
Research ICT Solutions
STEVE ESSELAAR PARTNER, RIS
MBA +1 778 865 5695
DR. CHRISTOPH STORK PARTNER, RIS
PHD, ECONOMICS +27 84 999 000 2
www.researchictsolutions.com
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