Renewable Energy and California’s Future Energy C… · Rethinking Renewables Technology Development – Deployment Venues. California Energy Commission – PIER C = Commercial

California Energy Commission – PIER

Renewable Energy and California’s Future

Martha Krebs Ph.D.Public Interest Energy Research Program

California Energy Commission

at the

Dan David SymposiumUC Merced, CA

September 26, 2008

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California Has Aggressive Goals for Greenhouse Gas Reduction

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Energy Consumption in CA

Source: CA Energy Commission, Integrated Energy Policy Report 2007,Dec. 2007


California Has Been Committed to Clean,Low Carbon Electricity for More than 30 Years

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CaliforniaUnited States

The Electricity Picture


• Launch pad of modern global RE industries• RE “resource rich”:

– Best direct and total solar radiation– Best geothermal– Major wind hot spots– Substantial agricultural and forestry waste streams

• RE R&D rich:– Source of one third of all clean energy venture capital– Legacy of ratepayer funded RE RD&D

• RE incentives and mandates:– $1/W buy-down for solar PV averaged over 3 GW– 33% RPS for 2020

Renewables in California


2007 IEPR

California Renewable Energy Goals


Investor-Owned Utilities Falling Shorton RPS Goals


• Central Station (“utility scale”) Renewables – large power plants storing and/or delivering renewable electricity to the electric system, including:– Wind Farms– Geothermal– Solar Thermal Power and Molten Nitrate Salt Storage– Compressed Air Energy Storage

• Community Scale Renewables – smaller power plants exploiting high quality local resources, including:– Bio-power, i.e. combustion or bio-chemical conversion of agricultural,

forestry and urban wastes to low to medium BTU gas, followed by conversion of heat and/or gas to electricity using thermal power plants, engine-generators, micro-turbines or fuel cells

– Moving water, i.e. tides, waves and currents• Building Scale Renewables – modular systems for building power, heat,

cooling, and lighting, e.g.– Residential Solar– Commercial Solar– Modular Wind

• Bio-refineries – Plants for production of fuel and/or electricity from wastes and crops

Rethinking Renewables TechnologyDevelopment – Deployment Venues


C = Commercial E = Emerging Utility-Scale Renewables RE Secure Communities RE Secure Buildings

Technology/ Resource Utility-scale power plants and bio-refineries

Smaller energy plants exploiting high-quality local

resources

Modular systems for building and industrial power, heat,

cooling and lighting

Wind Power Plants C CGeothermal Power C C

Hi Temp Solar Thermal C/E C/E E

Biomass Power/CHP C C C

Ocean/Wave E ESolar PV E C/E CDG Wind C/E C/ESolar Heat & Cooling C/E C/EDirect Geothermal C C

Geothermal Heat Pumps C CCellulosic Biofuels E E E

Deployment Venues

Commercial vs. Emerging –Technology Perspective


C = Capable

D = Developing Utility-Scale Renewables RE Secure Communities RE Secure Buildings



resources



Wind Power Plants C DGeothermal Power C D

Hi Temp Solar Thermal C/D D D

Biomass Power/CHP D C/D D

Ocean/Wave D DSolar PV D C CDG Wind D DSolar Heat & Cooling D DDirect Geothermal D D

Geothermal Heat Pumps D DCellulosic Biofuels D D D

Deployment Venues

Commercial vs. Emerging –California Industry Capability Perspective



Total Global Investment in Clean Energy (2004-2007)


RE Capacity Growth Rates, 2002-2006

California Energy Commission – PIERBiogas Plants in Germany, 1992-2006


Share of Solar Water Heating Capacity, 2006

California Energy Commission – PIERSpain Solar Water Heating Ordinances




California Energy Commission – PIERGerman Ground Source Heat Pump Market

California Energy Commission – PIERRE Jobs in Germany

California Energy Commission – PIERInland Empire Utility Agency

• Municipal water district serving 800,000 people in western San Bernardino County

• Installing 2.5MW of solar electricity generation capacity at by December 2008

• Complements biomass digesters converting dairy and food waste, producing 3MW of bio-power

• Goal is to generate 100% of power for agency operations from RE

• RE efforts started seven years ago with CEC RD&D grant support

California Energy Commission – PIERCalifornia RE Collaboratives

• Statewide networks of government, industry, environmental groups, and educational institutions.

• Sponsored by the Energy Commission • Technical staffs execute collaborative research addressing

program and stakeholder priorities.

• A fourth collaborative (solar) is in the formation stage.• Research agendas of the RE collaboratives will increasingly

favor project that directly involve collaborative members and are co-funded by multiple stakeholders

California Energy Commission – PIERRD&D program: Utility Scale Renewables

• Technical issues:– Proliferation of solar thermal power technical solutions– Integration of thermal storage and natural gas– Integration of renewable sources– Real time resource forecasts

• RD&D targets:– Enabling technologies and tools, e.g. thermal storage and

solar and wind forecasting– High value integrated solutions, e.g. solar/storage/NG

hybrids

California Energy Commission – PIERRD&D Solicitation: RE Secure Buildings

• Technical Gaps:– In state laboratory testing, evaluation and rating capability – Product innovation– Field test and demonstration of emerging technologies– Codes and standards support– Technical assistance to architects and builders

• RD&D Targets:– Outdoor testing of next generation PV technology– Transfer of emerging and commercial RE heating and cooling

technology to California market– Market support, e.g. California RE product technology center


Renewable Energy Secure Communities (RESCOs)

Goals• Support California climate leadership• Bring full menu of RE technologies and California RE

resources into play• Support local government efforts to address climate and

energy in their master plans• Provide RD&D support to communities committed to a

clean energy future and its public benefits:– Stabilize energy costs for families and local businesses– Create local jobs and internalize economic benefits of energy

purchases– Tap high quality local energy resources– Reduce need for new centralized energy supply and delivery

infrastructure


• Progress of utility scale RE deployment apparently stalled

• Policy support exists to explore other promising venues for RE deployment

• European precedent for successful “full menu” approach• May off-set part of multi-billion dollar investment in T&D• Synergies with energy efficiency programs off-set costs

on both sides• Engages the public and public resources effectively in

support of public interest goals• Provides state support for already-committed California

communities and institutions

RESCO Rationale

California Energy Commission – PIERSuggested RESCO Strategies

• Learn by doing…and from others’ experience– Deploy proven products and capabilities

– Pilot innovative solutions and capabilities

• Fit infrastructure development to local RE resource and business base

• Balanced portfolio:– local RE and efficiency measures– Local RE resources and purchased RE energy– public and private investment

• Leverage state and national programs and technical assistance

• Fit infrastructure development to local RE resource and business base

• Lay groundwork for future RE capacity expansion


For Our Communities

• Stabilize energy costs• Keep more dollars in local communities• Preserve local energy independence• Tax revenues• Protect the environment

Benefits to California


Thank You

for more information aboutCalifornia’s energy system

go to

http://www.energy.ca.gov/


Heavy Reliance on Natural Gas for Energy Production

• Since 1998, 62 power plants (24,000 megawatts) licensed by the Energy Commission

• Through December 2007, 38 plants (13,870 megawatts) built

• Licensed plants are natural gas-fired, except for two geothermal facilities

• 20 plants in active review at the CEC, 3 are solar-thermal

• Peak demand growth projected at 1.6% per year


√ = primary application √ = secondary application Utility-Scale Renewables RE Secure Communities RE Secure Buildings



resources



Wind Power Plants √ √Geothermal Power √ √

Hi Temp Solar Thermal √ √ √

Biomass Power √ √ √

Ocean/Wave √ √Solar PV √ √ √DG Wind √ √Solar Heat & Cooling √ √Direct Geothermal √ √

Geothermal Heat Pumps √ √Biofuels √ √ √

Deployment Venues

Renewable Energy Technology Menu

California Energy Commission – PIERDevelopment and Demonstration

• Potential Strategies:– Create new options– Improve existing options– Enable deployment

• In the AB 32 context:– Enable deployment– Emphasize RE integration

• RD&D can help:– Fill technology gaps– Optimize economic value of RE supply – Pilot mechanisms to deploy all cost-effective RE options


10 MW of Community Wind


Source: http://www.windustry.com

4% of Wind Installed in US is Community Owned

California Energy Commission – PIERRE Heat Supply in Germany


California Has Aggressive Goals for Greenhouse Gas Reduction

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Documents

Renewable Energy and California’s Future Energy C… · Rethinking Renewables Technology Development – Deployment Venues. California Energy Commission – PIER C = Commercial