Religare Morning Digest · Scrip CMP Recommendation Price Target Duration ... 3 Religare Morning Digest ... CEAT LTD. GODREJ CONSUMER

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Religare Morning Digest

November 11, 2016

Nifty Outlook

VWAP (Expiry till date) Max OI (Call) Max OI (Put)

NIFTY 8575 9000 8200

Nifty managed to gain over a percent on Thursday, tracking upbeat global markets. After gap up start, it inched gradually higher and almost tested 8600 mark in the first half, thanks to strong buying interest in index majors, largely from banking and metal space. However, profit taking in the later half trimmed the gains and it finally settled at 8525.75.

Today's recovery indicates apprehension linked to newly elected US President, Donald Trump, has subsided now and markets are taking its own course, by focusing on positive domestic and global factors.

Despite all the recent developments, we suggest maintaining cautious stance as upside seems capped in Nifty. We feel possibility of further consolidation in quite high in index; however, traders will continue to find ample opportunity on stock specific front.

Sectors to watch

Sector Name Outlook

FINANCIAL STABLE

METAL STABLE

FMCG STABLE

News Religare Super Ideas**

FII & DII Cash Segment (Rs. in Cr.) Trade Stats

Category Amt. MTD YTD

FII -2095 -3538 37698

DII 1116 4414 6499

NO OF CON-

TRACTS

TURNOVER IN CR

IDXFUTS 344087 24534

IDXOPT 8553607 638251

STKFUTS 714767 50992

Derivative Ideas **

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries doubled its net profit to Rs. 2,235.1 Cr in Q2 as against Rs. 1,028.8 Cr in the corresponding quarter last fiscal. Revenue grew by 20.2% to Rs. 8,265.1 Cr compared to Rs. 6,873.3 Cr previously. Operating Income increased 69.1% to Rs. 3,167.7 Cr in Q2 and the margin expanded 1110 basis points to 38.3%.

Motherson Sumi Systems reported a 26.3% increase in Net Profit to Rs. 479.9 Cr in Q2FY17 as against Rs. 380.3 Cr in the corresponding quarter last year. The company reported a 14.3% in Net Revenue to Rs. 10,332.6 Cr as against Rs. 9,038.8 Cr previously. EBITDA was up by 14.6% and the operating margin expanded by 20 basis points to 9.9%.

City Union Bank reported a 15% rise in Net Profits to Rs. 123.7 Cr in Q2FY17, against Rs. 107.8 Cr in the corresponding quarter last year. Total income of the bank rose by 7.9% to Rs. 894.9 Cr during Q2 as against Rs. 829.5 Cr previously. Gross NPAs stood at 2.69% of advances as compared to 2.62% in Q1. Net NPAs stood at 1.63% as against 1.59% previously.

*FII & DII data as on 9th November 2016

Scrip Buy/Sell CMP Initiation

Range SL* Target

CROMPGREAV BUY 81.90 80-81 77 89

BHARATFORG BUY 880.85 870-875 840 950

**Please note that the given technical and derivative recommendations are

"valid for taking position" only on recommended date and in the given range.

*Please note - Stoploss is on closing basis for delivery recommendation and intraday basis for futures recommendation.

Instrument B/S Lot INITIATION

RANGE SL

TAR-GET

AMBUJACEM

NOV FUTS BUY 2500 227-229 221 245



November 11, 2016

Religare Super Ideas

Investment Pick - Arman Financial Services Ltd.

Incorporated in 1992, Ahmedabad based Arman Financial Services (ARFL) lends primarily in the micro-finance and two wheeler space. ARFL operates in

micro-finance through its subsidiary Namra Finance (Rs 117cr, 68% of AUM) while Vehicle financing amounts to Rs 55cr (32% of AUM).

Key rationales: i) Multi-year growth in micro-finance business ii) Value creating opportunities in newer geographies in micro-finance and foray into SME lending iii)

Steady AUM growth of 35% CAGR over FY12-FY16 iv) Stable asset quality, High NIMs and Strong ROAAs. We feel the gradual and focused growth in micro-finance, conservative lending and focus on newer geographies will drive ARFL’s AUMs while sustained NIMs and controlled costs will improve profitability.

Scrip CMP Target Duration Recommendation Price

ARMANFIN 241.05 338 9-12 Months 260

AMBUJACEM added 9.1% of open interest as long

positions. It has a price support around 221 levels

and Fibonacci support is placed at 223 levels. We

expect it to rally till 245 levels.

Strategy: BUY AMBUJACEM NOV FUTS BETWEEN

227-229, SL 221, TARGET 245.

Derivative Ideas

Crompton Greaves Limited (CROMPGREAV) Bharat Forge Limited (BHARATFORG)

We reiterate buy call of CROMPGREAV as it was

not initiated in previous trading session.

Post recent decline (978-850), BHARATFORG is

now trading close to the confluence support zone

of its 100-200 EMA’s (850) on daily chart. We

strongly believe, near-term bias will be positive till

it is trading above these medium and long-term

averages. Hence, it makes sense buying in

mentioned range.



November 11, 2016

Religare Investment Calls

Name of the Company Reco Date Reco Price Target Price Upside % Previous day Closing Price

Tech Mahindra 7-Aug-15 534 600 12.4% 442.3

Kotak Mahindra Bank 19-Aug-15 688 900 30.8% 819.3

Glenmark Pharma 10-Sep-15 1,017 1,370 34.7% 915.5

Dabur India 10-Sep-15 275 325 18.1% 297.5

HUL 10-Sep-15 803 1,050 30.8% 828.3

Bajaj Corp 3-Nov-15 416 500 20.3% 399.5

Britannia Inds 23-Dec-15 2,896 3,600 24.3% 3,204.2

Nandan Denim 5-Jan-16 150 183 22.0% 134.6

Atul Auto 22-Mar-16 506 580 14.6% 478.5

Century Plyboards 5-Jul-16 207 271 30.9% 220.4

Greenply Industries 5-Jul-16 248 322 29.8% 275.5

Talwalkars Better Valkue Fitness 22-Aug-16 252 328 30.2% 270.7

Tv Today Network 29-Aug-16 300 388 29.3% 337.4

Jamna Auto 2-Sep-16 217 272 25.3% 209.5

SML Isuzu 26-Sep-16 1,300 1,560 20.0% 1,286.1

Swaraj Engines Ltd. 3-Oct-16 1,184 1,535 29.6% 1,384.1

Cigniti Technologies Ltd. 5-Oct-16 419 538 28.3% 406.3

Arman Financial Services 14-Oct-16 260 338 30.0% 241.1



November 11, 2016

Result Calendar—November 2016

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

06 07

8K MILES SOFTWARE SERVICES LTD.

ABAN OFFSHORE LTD.

AEGIS LOGISTICS LTD.

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD.

Bansal Roofing Products Ltd

BSL LTD.

CEAT LTD.

GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD.

HSIL LTD.

ICICI BANK LTD.

INDIA CEMENTS CAPITAL LTD.

J.J.FINANCE CORPORATION LTD.

Minda Finance Ltd

PTL ENTERPRISES LTD.-$

Surana Telecom And Power Lim-ited

Ultracab (India) Ltd

UNITED BANK OF INDIA

UNIVERSAL PRIME ALUMINIUM LTD.

Vakrangee Limited-$

VAMSHI RUBBER LTD.

WINRO COMMERCIAL (INDIA) LTD.

ZEN TECHNOLOGIES LTD.

HINDUSTAN HOUSING CO.LTD.

SARASWATI COMMERCIAL (INDIA) LTD.

08

ASHOK LEYLAND LTD.

BHARAT FORGE LTD.

BHARAT HEAVY ELECTRI-CALS LTD.

BOMBAY DYEING & MFG.CO.LTD.

LLOYD ROCKFIBRES LTD.

NESCO LTD.

SML ISUZU LIMITED

TATA COMMUNICATIONS LTD.

VINYL CHEMICALS (INDIA) LTD.

VISHVPRABHA TRADING LTD.

VA TECH WABAG LTD.

WABCO INDIA LTD.

WALCHAND PEOPLEFIRST LTD.

WANBURY LTD.

WILLIAMSON MAGOR & COMPANY LTD.

WILLIAMSON FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD.

Z.F.STEERING GEAR (INDIA) LTD.-$

09

AARTI DRUGS LTD.

APOLLO TYRES LTD.

BOSCH LTD.

CIPLA LTD.

EMAMI INFRASTRUCTURE LTD.

EMKAY GLOBAL FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD.

EVEREADY INDUSTRIES INDIA LTD.

Godrej Properties Ltd

INDIAN BANK

JAMNA AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD.

JK TYRE & INDUSTRIES LTD.

KESORAM INDUSTRIES LTD.

Larsen & Toubro Infotech Ltd

LUPIN LTD.

NCC Limited

Parag Milk Foods Ltd

POWER GRID CORPORA-TION OF INDIA LTD.

PUNJAB & SIND BANK

Snowman Logistics Ltd

UCO BANK

V.I.P.INDUSTRIES LTD.-$

10

ADITYA BIRLA NUVO LTD.

BLUE STAR LTD.

FINOLEX CABLES LTD.

L&T Technology Services Ltd

MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS LTD.

SUN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LTD.

Talwalkars Better Value Fitness Ltd

TATA CHEMICALS LTD.

TCFC FINANCE LTD.

THERMAX LTD.

TIMEX GROUP INDIA LTD.-$

TIPS INDUSTRIES LTD.

VOLTAIRE LEASING & FINANCE LTD.

WOCKHARDT LTD.

CHANAKYA INVESTMENTS LTD.

KHANDELWAL EXTRACTION LTD.

MANSOON TRADING CO.LTD.

11

AARTI INDUSTRIES LTD.

ANDHRA BANK

BANK OF BARODA

BHARAT PETROLEUM COR-PORATION LTD.

GABRIEL INDIA LTD.-$

IPCA LABORATORIES LTD.

LIBERTY SHOES LTD.

MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTD.

MT EDUCARE LTD.

MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD.

Quick Heal Technologies Ltd

RMG Alloy Steel Limited

SUN TV NETWORK LTD.

12

ABC INDIA LTD.-$

APOLLO FINVEST (INDIA) LTD.

ASIAN FERTILIZERS LTD.

ATUL AUTO LTD.-$

PTC INDIA LTD.

ZENITH FIBRES LTD.-$

ZENITH HEALTH CARE LTD.

GOVIND POY OXYGEN LTD.

KOVALAM INVEST-MENT & TRADING CO.LTD.

ZODIAC CLOTHING CO.LTD.

SARVAMANGAL MERCANTILE CO.LTD.

SATYAM SILK MILLS LTD.

SHERATON PROPER-TIES & FINANCE LTD.

SPEEDAGE COMMERCIALS LTD.

WELCAST STEELS LTD.



November 11, 2016

Corporate Action Calendar — November 2016 (Cash Dividend)


06 07

Supreme Industries Ltd

Vedanta Ltd

08

Colgate-Palmolive India Ltd

PI Industries Ltd

09

Astral Polytechnik Ltd

Sonata Software Ltd

10

Sundaram-Clayton Ltd

Transport Corp of India Ltd

11

12

Corporate Action Calendar — November 2016 (Stock Buyback)


06 07

R Systems International Ltd

08 09 10 11 12

Corporate Action Calendar — November 2016 (Stock Split)


06 07

08 09 10 11

Indo Count Industries Ltd

12



November 11, 2016

Economic Calendar — November 2016


06 07 08 09

Local Car Sales

10

Trade Balance

Imports YoY

Exports YoY

11

Industrial Production YoY

12

Corporate Action Calendar — November 2016 (Acquisition)

Date Target Company Acquirer Company

10/30/2016 Yatra Online Inc Terrapin 3 Acquisition Corp

10/31/2016 One97 Communications Ltd Multiple acquirers

10/31/2016 Spirotech Heat Exchangers Pvt Ltd LU-VE SpA

10/31/2016 IIInspection & Export Pvt Ltd Iii Co Ltd

10/31/2016 Discountseniorsupply.com domain Health Advance Inc

11/2/2016 Anka India Ltd Private Investor

11/10/2016 BCC Fuba India Ltd Private Investor

11/10/2016 Kwality Credit & Leasing Ltd Private Investor



November 11, 2016

Current Portfolio and Performance Summary as on 10th November’16

Stock Sector Entry Date Weight Reco price (`) CMP (`)

Bajaj Corp Consumer Goods May 13, 2016 9.1% 393 400

Magma Fincorp Financial Services June 30, 2016 8.9% 109 105

Apollo Hospitals

Enterprises Healthcare Services July 29, 2016 9.5% 1,362 1,305

Emami Consumer Goods August 3, 2016 10.2% 1,151 1,186

Castrol India Energy August 5, 2016 10.0% 425 433

Indiabulls Housing

Finance Financial Services August 8, 2016 8.6% 808 701

Punjab National Bank Financial Services October 3, 2016 11.2% 143 159

Minda Corporation Auto Ancillaries October 10, 2016 10.2% 109 106

Cash 22.3%

Total Total 100%



November 11, 2016

Historical Performance as on 10th November’16

Performance Matrix 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year Since Inception

Religare Alpha -4.1% 3.0% 11.4% 12.3% 29.3%

Nifty -2.1% -0.6% 9.1% 9.5% 8.1%

Outperformance -2.0% 3.6% 2.3% 2.8% 21.1%



November 11, 2016

Research Product Basket

For cash market trading

Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated

Intraday Calls Intraday 2 - 3 < 1 day 25%

Live / RMD Calls Daily 3 - 4 3 - 4 days 30%

Master Pick Weekly 1 1 month 15%

Religare Alpha Opportunity NA 2 - 3 months 20%

Cash NA 10%

For 1L margin*

Total Per Call

25,000 8,000

30,000 4,000

15,000 5,000

20,000 As per weightage

10,000

Intraday Calls These calls are flashed live on Ms Lync and ODIN with the purpose of squaring off positions on the same day. As a policy, we restrict our

intraday cash market calls to less than 4 calls a day. Hence, funds should be allocated accordingly to have provision to trade in all calls.

Live / RMD Calls 2 super ideas are flashed in RMD daily with a view of 3-4 days. Additionally as per market opportunity, we flash live calls during the day

(including BTST calls). 3-4 such calls are made on a daily basis which might be open for 3-4 days. Funds should be allocated keeping in mind that

there will be 7-8 such open calls daily.

Master Pick This is our weekly recommendation shortlisted on the basis of techno-funda analysis. 15% of funds is recommended to be allocated for Master

Pick considering that there will be 3 open calls. The average open duration for this call will be 1 month.

Religare Alpha This is a portfolio of 8-10 stocks which are held with a view of 2-3 months. It is recommended to allocate 20% of funds for building this portfolio

which will provide stability to the overall trading portfolio.

Cash 10% surplus cash in the portfolio should be kept for the purposes of allocating it to opportunities as and when they arrive.

For derivative market trading

Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated

Derivative Ideas Daily 1 - 2 1 - 3 days 40%

Live calls Intraday / Daily 1 - 2 3 - 4 days 50%

Cash NA 10%

For 1L margin*

Total Per Call

40,000 40,000

50,000 50,000

10,000

Derivative Ideas 1 derivative idea is shared in RMD daily. It can be a plain vanilla F&O buy/sell call or an option strategy. Funds should be allocated assuming 2

such calls will be open at any time. These calls are open for 3-4 days on an average.

Live Calls These calls are flashed on MS Lync and ODIN during live market hours. These calls can be intraday or with a view of 2-3 days. Funds should be

allocated considering 2 such calls will be open at any time. 3/4 times, these calls will be on Nifty / Bank Nifty only.

Cash It is recommended to hold 10% cash to capitalize on any opportunity that may arise in markets.

For every client, the advisor must allocate a specific proportion of funds for trading and investing depending on the risk taking ability and willingness of the client

and their investment goals.

The below mentioned product basket tries to address the way to deal with the trading portfolio (cash/derivative) for optimum effectiveness of research calls.

It is recommended to divide your trading funds for various types of calls and not invest the entire amount for 1 or 2 calls only.



November 11, 2016

Hitesh Agrawal [email protected]

Ajay Pasari, CFA [email protected]

Ajit Mishra [email protected]

Archana Gude [email protected]

Gaurav Sharma [email protected]

Swati Saxena [email protected]

Manoj M Vayalar [email protected]

Mehernosh Khurshed Panthaki [email protected]

Vipin Kumar [email protected]

Team Members



November 11, 2016

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Religare Morning Digest · Scrip CMP Recommendation Price Target Duration ... 3 Religare Morning Digest ... CEAT LTD. GODREJ CONSUMER