REGIONAL FORECAST REPORT MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH …

Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

© Analysys Mason Limited 2016

REGIONAL FORECAST REPORT

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

TELECOMS MARKET: TRENDS AND

FORECASTS 2016–2021

KARIM YAICI



REPORT COVERAGE

Geographical Key performance indicators

Regions modelled:

Middle East and

North Africa

Countries modelled

individually

Algeria

Egypt

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Kuwait

Morocco

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Tunisia

United Arab

Emirates (UAE)

Connections Revenue

Mobile

Handset, mobile

broadband,1 M2M2

Prepaid, contract

2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

Smartphone,

non-smartphone

Fixed

Voice, broadband,

IPTV, dial-up

Narrowband voice,

VoBB

DSL, FTTH/B, cable,

BFWA, other

Mobile

Service,3 retail

Prepaid, contract

Handset, mobile

broadband,1 M2M2

Handset voice,

messaging, data

Fixed

Service,3 retail

Voice, broadband,

IPTV, dial-up, BNS

DSL, FTTH/B, cable,

BFWA, other

ARPU

Voice traffic Mobile:

SIMs, handset

Prepaid, contract

Handset voice, data

Fixed and mobile

Outgoing minutes,

MoU

2

This report provides:

a 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for

the Middle East and North Africa region and for twelve key

countries

an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast

assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for

key countries

data for Iran, which has been added to the forecast coverage

an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics,

which highlights similarities and differences through a cross-

country comparison

a summary of results, key implications and recommendations

for mobile and fixed operators.

Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market

experts from our topic-led research programmes and our

consulting division, as well as external interviews.

In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw

on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous

methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard

definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

For the complete data set, see the accompanying Excel file at

www.analysysmason.com/MENA-telecoms-forecast-Aug2016.

About this report

1 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.

2 M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.

3 Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

http://www.analysysmason.com/MENA-telecoms-forecast-Aug2016








© Analysys Mason Limited 2016 3

11. Executive summary

12. The telecoms service market in MENA will grow to USD77.5 billion in 2021,

against the backdrop of a weaker macroeconomic outlook

13. Telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD6.2 billion between 2015 and

2021, driven by mobile handset data and fixed broadband services

14. Fixed or mobile revenue will grow in most countries, but competition,

market saturation and lack of investment will have an impact on some

15. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets

16. Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators

17. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison

18. Geographical coverage: We model twelve telecoms markets, which will

account for 90.7% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2021

19. Market context: The twelve modelled countries account for 83.3% of total

population and 92.4% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2015

20. Revenue and ARPU: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue

growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate

21. Mobile penetration: Maturing markets and enforced SIM registration have

already led to a slow down in the number of new mobile connections

22. Mobile connections: 44.2% of all connections will be 3G by 2021, while LTE

will account for nearly a quarter of mobile SIMs (excluding M2M)

23. Smartphones and 4G/5G: Israel will have the highest smartphone

penetration and UAE will lead 4G/5G take-up rates over the next 5 years

24. Mobile ARPU: Growth in data will offset the decline from voice and

messaging, thereby lessening the rate of decline of ARPU

25. Fixed services: Broadband market will grow in most countries, driven by

upgrades to access technology and greenfield infrastructure deployment

26. Fixed broadband: Household penetration will grow in all markets, driven by

market competition and supported by national broadband plans

27. Key drivers at a glance for each Middle East and North Africa market

28. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]

29. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]

30. Individual country forecasts

31. Algeria: Retail revenue will grow at a CAGR of 0.6% during 2015–2021,

driven by demand for mobile and fixed broadband services

32. Algeria – mobile: 3G and the upcoming 4G launch will provide the

momentum to drive demand for mobile data services

33. Algeria – fixed: DSL and fixed LTE have great potential for growth, but lack

of investment will be a significant obstacle

34. Egypt: Service revenue will grow at a CAGR of 0.9% to 2021, driven by

demand for fixed broadband and handset data

35. Egypt – mobile: Service revenue is set to decline at a CAGR of –1.1% over

2016–2021, giving a weakened market outlook

36. Egypt – fixed: Strong growth in broadband connections, while price

adjustments and business lines will help slow voice erosion

37. Iran: Lifting of sanctions will improve GDP and encourage investment, while

data services will bolster the mobile segment

38. Iran – mobile: Increased access to 3G and 4G services and the prospect of

new market entrants will underpin future growth

Contents



39. Iran – fixed: Market development will depend on investment in

infrastructure, amidst competition from mobile to voice services

40. Iraq: The challenging economic and volatile security situations will take

their toll on consumer demand in the short term

41. Iraq – mobile: Political instability and low oil prices will impact the economy,

but data offer some potential for revenue growth

42. Iraq – fixed: Poor fixed line infrastructure and persistent civil war will

contribute to the under-development of the sector

43. Israel: Competition and price erosion will continue to impact mobile

revenue; fixed market liberalisation will spur competition

44. Israel – mobile: Intense competition will result in significant revenue

decline, while 3G share will start to fall from 2016

45. Israel – fixed: Speed upgrades and the introduction of fibre in 2016 will

spur further growth in broadband market revenue

46. Kuwait: Mobile market dynamism and growth are contrasted with a fixed

market that lacks competition and investment

47. Kuwait – mobile: LTE will be central to mobile market competition as

operators aim to increase data usage to stabilise ARPU

48. Kuwait – fixed: Planned privatisation of fixed infrastructure and fixed–

mobile partnerships could unlock broadband potential

49. Morocco: Voice revenue will decline, but still dominate the market, while

mobile handset data will be the fastest-growing sector

50. Morocco – mobile: Strong growth of data revenue will be insufficient to

offset rapidly declining voice revenue

51. Morocco – fixed: Fixed voice market will remain largely resilient, while

broadband adoption will be driven by business and dual-play

52. Oman: Service revenue growth will maintain its rapid rise, driven by very

strong demand for fixed and mobile data

53. Oman – mobile: Very strong data revenue outlook, while a new third entrant

could pose a risk of ARPU and market value erosion

54. Oman – fixed: Fixed voice revenue will decline from 2015, while fibre

competition increases due to ambitious roll-out plans

55. Qatar: Strong economic and population growth will help telecoms services

to generate QAR10 billion in retail revenue by 2021

56. Qatar – mobile: Demand from migrants will sustain growth in connections,

while 4G competition will be based on technology

57. Qatar – fixed: Quasi-ubiquity of fibre creates opportunities for upselling of

TV services, but these will be limited to Ooredoo

58. Saudi Arabia: Broadband data services will drive retail revenue growth, but

competition will reduce short-term market growth

59. Saudi Arabia – mobile: MVNOs will drive subscriber growth in the short

term, while data will capture half of retail revenue by 2021

60. Saudi Arabia – fixed: Voice market recovered in 2015 thanks to the

business segment while broadband outlook appears strong

61. Tunisia: Infrastructure investments and competition will help stimulate

growth amidst political and economic challenges

62. Tunisia – mobile: Steady growth of subscribers from Lycamobile launch,

while demand for data will be key to revenue growth

Contents



63. Tunisia – fixed: The broadband market will grow slowly due to competition

from mobile, while the telephony market will contract

64. UAE: Economic diversification and population growth will help increase

telecoms retail revenue to AED42.9 billion by 2021

65. UAE – mobile: Increasing contributions from postpaid and data users

should help to drive revenue growth and slow ARPU erosion

66. UAE – fixed: Infrastructure sharing will stimulate competition and

encourage operators to invest in the sector to maintain growth

67. About the author and Analysys Mason

68. About the author

69. Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned

70. Research from Analysys Mason

71. Consulting from Analysys Mason

Contents



Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue

(retail and wholesale), Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Middle East and North

Africa, 2015–2021

Figure 3: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2015–2021) and total

retail revenue (2021) by country, Middle East and North Africa

Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for the Middle East

and North Africa

Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA penetration of

fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2021

Figure 6: Metrics for the twelve countries modelled individually in the Middle

East and North Africa, 2015

Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed

broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and

growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2021

Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa,

2015–2021

Figure 10: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Middle

East and North Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 11: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and

3G, 4G and 5G’s share of connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–

2021

6

Figure 12: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and 4G/5G share of total

connections (excluding M2M), Middle East and North Africa, 2015 and 2021

Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 14: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and

mobile broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 15: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Middle East

and North Africa, 2011–2021

Figure 16: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2015) and future trajectory

(2016–2021) by country, Middle East and North Africa

Figure 17: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers

table (current and future) and impact of high scores


(retail and wholesale), Algeria, 2011–2021


growth rates, Algeria, 2015–2021

Figure 20: Connections by type, and growth rates, Algeria, 2015–2021

Figure 21: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Algeria, 2011–

2021

Figure 22: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Algeria, 2011–2021

Figure 23: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Algeria

Figure 24: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Algeria, 2011–2021

List of figures



Figure 25: Fixed ASPU by service type, Algeria, 2011–2021

Figure 26: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Algeria


(retail and wholesale), Egypt, 2011–2021


growth rates, Egypt, 2015–2021

Figure 29: Connections by type, and growth rates, Egypt, 2015–2021

Figure 30: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Egypt, 2011–

2021

Figure 31: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Egypt, 2011–2021

Figure 32: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Egypt

Figure 33: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Egypt, 2011–2021

Figure 34: Fixed ASPU by service type, Egypt, 2011–2021

Figure 35: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Egypt


(retail and wholesale), Iran, 2011–2021


growth rates, Iran, 2015–2021

Figure 38: Connections by type, and growth rates, Iran, 2015–2021

Figure 39: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iran, 2011–2021

7

Figure 40: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Iran, 2011–2021

Figure 41: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iran

Figure 42: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Iran, 2011–2021

Figure 43: Fixed ASPU by service type, Iran, 2011–2021

Figure 44: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Iran


(retail and wholesale), Iraq, 2011–2021


growth rates, Iraq, 2015–2021

Figure 47: Connections by type, and growth rates, Iraq, 2015–2021

Figure 48: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Iraq, 2011–2021

Figure 49: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Iraq, 2011–2021

Figure 50: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Iraq

Figure 51: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Iraq, 2011–2021

Figure 52: Fixed ASPU by service type, Iraq, 2011–2021

Figure 53: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Iraq


(retail and wholesale), Israel, 2011–2021


growth rates, Israel, 2015–2021

Figure 56: Connections by type, and growth rates, Israel, 2015–2021

List of figures



Figure 57: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Israel, 2011–

2021

Figure 58: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Israel, 2011–2021

Figure 59: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Israel

Figure 60: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Israel, 2011–2021

Figure 61: Fixed ASPU by service type, Israel, 2011–2021

Figure 62: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Israel


(retail and wholesale), Kuwait, 2011–2021


growth rates, Kuwait, 2015–2021

Figure 65: Connections by type, and growth rates, Kuwait, 2015–2021

Figure 66: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Kuwait, 2011–

2021

Figure 67: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Kuwait, 2011–2021

Figure 68: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait

Figure 69: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Kuwait, 2011–2021

Figure 70: Fixed ASPU by service type, Kuwait, 2011–2021

Figure 71: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Kuwait

8


(retail and wholesale), Morocco, 2011–2021


growth rates, Morocco, 2015–2021

Figure 74: Connections by type, and growth rates, Morocco, 2015–2021

Figure 75: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Morocco, 2011–

2021

Figure 76: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Morocco, 2011–2021

Figure 77: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Morocco

Figure 78: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Morocco, 2011–2021

Figure 79: Fixed ASPU by service type, Morocco, 2011–2021

Figure 80: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Morocco


(retail and wholesale), Oman, 2011–2021


growth rates, Oman, 2015–2021

Figure 83: Connections by type, and growth rates, Oman, 2015–2021

Figure 84: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Oman, 2011–

2021

Figure 85: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Oman, 2011–2021

Figure 86: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Oman

Figure 87: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Oman, 2011–2021

List of figures



Figure 88: Fixed ASPU by service type, Oman, 2011–2021

Figure 89: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Oman


(retail and wholesale), Qatar, 2011–2021


growth rates, Qatar, 2015–2021

Figure 92: Connections by type, and growth rates, Qatar, 2015–2021

Figure 93: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Qatar, 2011–

2021

Figure 94: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Qatar, 2011–2021

Figure 95: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Qatar

Figure 96: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Qatar, 2011–2021

Figure 97: Fixed ASPU by service type, Qatar, 2011–2021

Figure 98: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Qatar


(retail and wholesale), Saudi Arabia, 2011–2021


growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2015–2021

Figure 101: Connections by type, and growth rates, Saudi Arabia, 2015–2021

Figure 102: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Saudi Arabia

2011–2021

Figure 103: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Saudi Arabia, 2011–2021

9

Figure 104: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Saudi

Arabia

Figure 105: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2011–2021

Figure 106: Fixed ASPU by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2011–2021

Figure 107: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Saudi

Arabia


(retail and wholesale), Tunisia, 2011–2021


growth rates, Tunisia, 2015–2021

Figure 110: Connections by type, and growth rates, Tunisia, 2015–2021

Figure 111: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, Tunisia, 2011–

2021

Figure 112: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, Tunisia, 2011–2021

Figure 113: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, Tunisia

Figure 114: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Tunisia, 2011–2021

Figure 115: Fixed ASPU by service type, Tunisia, 2011–2021

Figure 116: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, Tunisia


(retail and wholesale), UAE, 2011–2021


growth rates, UAE, 2015–2021

List of figures



Figure 119: Connections by type, and growth rates, UAE, 2015–2021

Figure 120: Mobile, smartphone and 4G/5G penetration rates, UAE, 2011–

2021

Figure 121: Mobile ARPU by type, and mobile ARPU, UAE, 2011–2021

10

Figure 122: Summary of key mobile market drivers and assumptions, UAE

Figure 123: Fixed penetration rates by service type, UAE, 2011–2021

Figure 124: Fixed ASPU by service type, UAE, 2011–2021

Figure 125: Summary of key fixed market drivers and assumptions, UAE

List of figures



Figure 5: Mobile connections by technology generation and NGA penetration of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 20211

1 For a full list of countries modelled as part of the MENA region, please see the accompanying data annex. Mobile connections exclude M2M connections. NGA share of fixed broadband connections is

calculated as cable, VDSL and FTTH connections (which provide access speeds of 30Mbps or more) divided by the total number of fixed broadband connections.

Geographical coverage: We model twelve telecoms markets, which will

account for 90.7% of telecoms service revenue in MENA in 2021

Mobile connections by

technology generation

NGA share of fixed

broadband connections

2G

3G

4G/5G

KEY

Countries modelled individually

Countries modelled as part of the region

2014

Year of

LTE launch

67%

Source: Analysys Mason

ALGERIA TUNISIA EGYPT ISRAEL IRAQ

UAE QATAR SAUDI ARABIA

MOROCCO

KUWAIT

OMAN

2016

18

IRAN

2016 9% 11%

2016

2013 7%2014 88%

2011 51%

2015 53%

2012 28%2013 100%2011 44%

2016 6%

2011 100%

19%



Service type Revenue (USD billion) CAGR

2015 2021 2011–2015 2015–2021

Mobile voice 31.2 29.2 –0.6% –1.1%

Mobile messaging 2.4 1.8 –2.1% –5.0%

Mobile handset data 8.1 13.1 21.2% 8.5%

Mobile broadband2 2.6 3.0 15.9% 2.0%

Mobile M2M 0.10 0.48 60.0% 29.6%

Fixed voice and narrowband3 6.4 5.0 –5.4% –4.0%

Fixed broadband and IPTV 8.6 11.3 12.2% 4.7%

Business network services 5.54 7.30 7.6% 4.7%

Total retail revenue 64.8 71.1 3.2% 1.5%

Total service revenue4 71.9 77.5 2.8% 1.3%

Connection type Connections (million) CAGR

2015 2021 2011–2015 2015–2021

Mobile handsets 458.6 514.8 4.7% 1.9%

Mobile broadband 18.0 23.9 23.4% 4.9%

Mobile M2M 4.9 26.2 67.0% 32.2%

Fixed voice 61.3 63.9 –0.9% 0.7%

Fixed broadband 26.1 36.2 20.2% 5.6%

IPTV 1.5 3.4 24.7% 15.0%

Figure 9: Connections by type, and growth rates, Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2021

20

2 Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data. 3 Includes narrowband, VoBB and dial-up Internet access. 4 Includes retail and wholesale revenue.

Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates,

Middle East and North Africa, 2015–2021

Revenue and ARPU: Mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue

growth in the region, but mobile voice revenue will continue to dominate

Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and

mobile ARPU, Middle East and North Africa, 2011–2021

1 Mobile ARPU is calculated as total mobile service revenue (retail and wholesale), excluding M2M,

divided by total average mobile connections, excluding M2M.

Mobile voice Mobile messaging Retail revenue: Mobile handset data

Mobile broadband Mobile M2M

Fixed voice and narrowband Fixed broadband and IPTV

Business network services

Mobile ARPU1 Fixed voice ASPU Fixed broadband ASPU

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

AR

PU

/A

SP

U (

US

D p

er m

on

th)

Rev

enu

e (U

SD

bill

ion

)

Source: Analysys Mason



CONTENTS

67

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

REGIONAL FORECASTS AND CROSS-COUNTRY COMPARISON

INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY FORECASTS

ABOUT THE AUTHOR AND ANALYSYS MASON



About the author

Karim Yaici (Senior Analyst) leads Analysys Mason’s The Middle East and Africa regional research programme. His primary areas of

specialisation include operators' digital strategies, new telecoms opportunities and challenges, and consumer trends in growth markets. Prior to

joining Analysys Mason, Karim was an associate analyst at Ovum, where he authored reports on mobile accessories and mobile applications.

Prior to that, he worked as a research engineer in the Institute for Communication Systems and Vodafone. Karim holds an MSc in Information

Systems Management from the University of Southampton and a PhD in human–computer interaction from the University of Surrey.



Regional

markets

Digital

economy

Consumer

and SME

services

Telecoms

software and

networks

Regulation

and policy

Strategy

and planning

Transaction

support

CONSULTING

We deliver tangible benefits to clients across the telecoms

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We are future-focused and help clients understand the

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Our dedicated team of analysts track and forecast the

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Clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence, and direct

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Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio

69

Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned



Research from Analysys Mason

We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors, through a

range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world.

70

We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors, through a

range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world.

To find out more, please visit www.analysysmason.com/research

Research portfolio

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Consulting portfolio

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Regulation

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REGIONAL FORECAST REPORT MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH …