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Recent Developments That Affect North American Gas Supply. Brian Morse Manager, Gas Supply. Safe Harbor Statement. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | OCTOBER 9, 2014
Brian MorseManager, Gas Supply
Recent Developments That Affect North American Gas Supply
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 2
Safe Harbor Statement
Some of the statements in this document concerning future company performance will be forward-looking within the meanings of the securities laws. Actual results may materially differ from those discussed in these forward-looking statements, and you should refer to the additional information contained in Spectra Energy’s Form 10-K and other filings made with the SEC concerning factors that could cause those results to be different than contemplated in today's discussion.
Reg G Disclosure
In addition, today’s discussion includes certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under SEC Regulation G. A reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available on our website.
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mar
keta
ble,
Bcf
/day
US Gas Production and Consumption
Dry Production
Demand
Recap: U.S. Gas Supply & Demand
Source: EIA and other public data sources
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 4
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,600
2007 2013
Iroquois (MMcf/d)
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2007 2013
Minnesota (MMcf/d)
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2007 2013
GTN (MMcf/d)
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,400
2007 2013
Niagara (MMcf/d)
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,400
2007 2013
Alliance & North Dakota (MMcf/d)
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2007 2013
Northern Border (MMcf/d)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2007 2013
Sumas (MMcf/d)
Canadian Gas Exports to the U.S. (2007 vs. 2013)
SumasGTN Northern
Border Minnesota
Alliance& NorthDakota
Niagara
Iroquois
Source: Energy Information Administration
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Raw
Gas
Pro
ducti
on, B
cf/d
Gas Production
AB
BC
Recap: Western Canada Production
13 Bcf/d
5 Bcf/d
Source: Alberta and B.C. Governments
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 6
Perspective on Horizontal Wells
Duvernay
Horn River
Montney
Calgary Skyline215 m
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 7
0 500 1,000 1,5002,000
Conventional
Liard
Cordova
Montney
Horn River
Tcf
Gas In Place Estimates - 2013
B.C. Resource Estimates
Montney (liquids-rich) gas production is growing in all three sub-regions of Western Canada, in step with gathering, processing and liquids extraction infrastructure development.
Source: Energy Briefing Note – The Ultimate Potential for Unconventional Petroleum from the Montney Formation of British Columbia and Alberta
0 500 1,000 1,5002,000
Conventional
Liard
Cordova
Montney
Horn River
Tcf
Gas In Place Estimates - 2014
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 8
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cum
ulati
ve F
eet D
rille
d, T
hous
ands
Fort Nelson Asset Area
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cum
ulati
ve F
eet D
rille
d, T
hous
ands
Fort St. John Asset Area
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cum
ulati
ve F
eet D
rille
d, T
hous
ands
Grizzly Valley Asset Area
2008200920102011
B.C. Drilling Response to Lower Gas Exports
Source: B.C. Government
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 9
Montney Production Responds to Drilling
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Raw
Gas
Pro
ducti
on, M
Mcf
/d
Montney Tight Gas Production
North Fairway BC
South Fairway BC
AB Fairway
BCAl
bert
a
Source: Alberta and B.C. Governments
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Raw
Gas
Pro
ducti
on, M
Mcf
/d
Montney Tight Gas Production
North Fairway BC
South Fairway BC
AB Fairway
1,630 MMcf/d
900 MMcf/d
650 MMcf/d
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034
Mar
keta
ble
Gas
, Bcf
/d
BC Montney Forecast
North-South Split Forecast
NEB BC Tight Gas Forecast
North Montney
South Montney
3.7 Bcf/d
2.8 Bcf/d
57% of B.C. Fairway acreage
43% of B.C. Fairway acreage
Source: National Energy Board (NEB), 2013
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 11
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Raw
Gas
, MM
cf/d
Utica Region Gas Production
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Raw
Gas
, MM
cf/d
Marcellus Region Production
Utica is Established
MarcellusUtica
Source: EIA
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 12
Source: Wood Mackenzie, October 2011 via Nexen Investor Presentation 2012-07
Horn RiverMontney
Duvernay
BarnettMarcellusEagle Ford Haynesville
Relative Ranking of Established Gas Supply Sources in North America
*Supply Cost: Includes capital costs, operating costs, transportation, government take and a 10% return under full field development
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 13
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600
Brea
keve
n G
as P
rice
$/M
MBt
u
Tcf of Gas Available
North America Gas Supply Cost Curve
Source: 2011 MIT Study on the Future of Natural Gas, Figure 2.10
• North American gas supplies are large and have widely varying associated costs
• The recent shale gas supply surge has added large sources of supply with relatively low development costs
• There are approximately 900 Tcf available at a cost of supply of $4.00/Mcf, or less
Gas Price vs. Gas Supply
Quantity is not the issue... price is
Tcf of Gas Available
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 14
• 900 Tcf available at $4.00/Mcf or less
• Compared to U.S. and Canada’s cumulative gas demand
• Includes LNG exports and domestic growth in residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation demand
• Cumulative consumption does not reach 900 Tcf in the next 25 years
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration and Canadian National Energy Board 2011 Forecast
How Much is 900 Tcf?
* LNG Exports assumes first exports of 6 Bcf/day in 2015, increasing to 20 Bcf/d in 2022, then flat
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 15
Proposed West Coast LNG ProjectsName Participants Size
Bcf/d Location Specific Pipeline
NEB Expo
rt Perm
it Obtained
West Coast Canada LNG Imperial Oil/ExxonMobil Canada 3.8 Prince Rupert Grassy Point or Tuck
Inlet Not determined
Aurora LNG Nexen (CNOOC), INPEX, and JGC 3.1 Prince Rupert Grassy Point or Digby Island Not determined
LNG Canada Shell Canada, PetroChina Company, Korea Gas Corp and Mitsubishi Corp 3.1 Kitimat Douglas Channel Coastal GasLink Pipeline (TCPL)
Prince Rupert LNG BG Group 2.7 Prince Rupert Ridley Island Westcoast Connector Gas
Transmission Project (Spectra Energy)Pacific Northwest LNG
Progress Energy, PETRONAS and Japan Petroleum Exploration Company 2.7 Prince Rupert Lelu Island Prince Rupert Gas Transmission
Project (TCPL)Jordan Cove Energy Project Veresen Inc. 1.6 Coos Bay,
Oregon North SpitExisting Fortis & GTN then new Pacific Connector Gas Pipeline (Williams & Veresen)
Kitimat LNG Apache Canada Limited and Chevron Canada Limited 1.3 Kitimat Bish Cove Merrick Mainline (TCPL) and Pacific
Trail Pipeline (Chevron)Oregon LNG Leucadia National Corporation 1.3 Warrenton,
Oregon Skipanon Peninsula Oregon Pipeline to existing Williams pipeline
Triton LNG AltaGas Limited, Idemitsu Canada Corporation 0.3 Kitimat or
Prince Rupert Floating facility Existing PNGWoodfibre LNG Project Woodfibre LNG Limited 0.3 Squamish Old pulp mill site Fortis and SpectraDouglas Channel LNG
Douglas Channel Gas Services, Haisla Nation, Golar LNG, LNG Partners LLC 0.2 Kitimat West bank of Douglas
Channel. Barge. Existing PNG
NEB Expo
rt Perm
it Pending
Stewart Energy LNG Canada Stewart Energy Group Ltd 3.8 Stewart Floating facility initially Not determined
Grassy Point LNG Woodside Energy Ltd. 2.8 Prince Rupert Grassy Point (on shore or floating) Not determined
Kitsault Energy Kitsault Energy 2.6 Kitsault Floating facility initially Not determinedDiscovery LNG Quicksilver Resources 2.6 Campbell River Elk Falls Mill site Not determined
Steelhead LNG Steelhead LNG Corp. andHuu-ay-aht First Nation 0.8 Port Alberni Sarita Bay Not determined
WesPac WesPac Midstream 0.4 Delta Tilbury Island Existing or expanded FortisWatson Island LNG
Watson Island LNG Corp and City of Prince Rupert small Prince Rupert Watson Island Not determined
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 16
B.C. LNG Locations
KitsaultStewart
Prince RupertKitimat
Campbell River
Port AlberniSquamish
Delta
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 17
Oregon LNG Locations
Warrenton
Coos Bay
NWPGTN
Proposed ConnectorMalin
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 18
Reaction to China RussiaGas Supply Announcement
Massive Russia-China gas deal to shake up LNG marketsThe Globe and Mail
Russia-China Natural Gas Deal to Set LNG Price FloorBank of America
Russia-China gas deal puts heat on BC’s LNG sectorVancouver Sun
Russia-China gas deal could squeeze economics of Canadian LNG projectsTD
Russia and China’s $400 billion natural gas deal is bad news for BC LNG.Canadian Business
The world does not need Canadian LNGformer Shell exec
China’s natural gas supply options greatly exceed market requirementsCanadaWest Foundation
3.8 Bcf/d x 30 years
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2012 2013 Russian Gas Deal3.8 Bcf/d in 2018
Comparator:N.A. Gas Production
2014
Bcf/
d, M
arke
tabl
e G
as
Russian Gas Movement
LNG Exports to Asia
Exports to Europe & FSU
Consumption
Russian Supply Perspective
Source: Gazprom, Rosneft, Novatek, BP Statistical Review of World Energy
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 20
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2012 2013 Russian Gas Deal3.8 Bcf/d in 2018
2035Total China Energy Demand Forecast
Comparator:US & Canada
2013 Consumption
Mill
ion
Tonn
es O
il Eq
uiva
lent
China - Energy Consumption by Type
RenewablesHydroNuclearCoalGasOil
China Demand Perspective
Source: Energy Information Administration, BP Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency
NORTHEAST B.C. COAL & ENERGY FORUM | 21
New U.S. Demand Identified
GTL• High returns with methane feedstock prices low and liquid
products prices high• Smaller strategically placed projects expected to be funded• Proposed locations in Marcellus-Utica, Gulf Coast and
Rockies currently
Methanol• Used as a petrochemical feedstock and to produce gasoline• Low cost gas feedstock and rising demand worldwide for
methanol attract investment• Facilities planned in Gulf Coast area and West Coast for
export to China
Fertilizer• Producing ammonia and nitrogen requires natural gas for
hydrogen content and heat energy• Domestic demand is up and feedstock (gas) prices are down• Planned locations more spread out than GTL or Methanol
Transportation• Road, rail, and shipping industries gradually migrating to
natural gas fuel• Proposed facilities dedicated to large airports
GTL400 MMcf/d
13%
Magnitude3 Bcf/d Demand Growth (to 2018)
Methanol1,000 MMcf/d
33%
Transportation500 mmcf/d
17%
Fertilizer1,100 MMcf/d
37%
Recognized by: