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Rami ZaatariICT Applications Section
ICT Division
www.escwa.un.org
8-9 June 20128-9 June 2012
Regional Workshop on ICT Indicators: from Policy & Strategy to ImpactRegional Workshop on ICT Indicators: from Policy & Strategy to Impact
Impact of ICT and Selected e-Impact of ICT and Selected e-ServicesServiceson Socio-Economic Developmenton Socio-Economic Development
Outline• Impact of ICTs
• Complexity of Assessment: Impact/Region Specific
• International/Regional Stakeholders
• The Role of ESCWA
• Methodologies of Impact Assessment
• Impact of ICT and selected e-Services on socio-economic development
• ICT Impact Analysis – In Practice
• Conclusion
Impact of ICTsImpact of ICTs
• ICTs have changed the way we live work and communicate• WSIS - ICTs can have a tremendous positive impact as an
instrument of sustainable development• WSIS called on all stakeholders to benefit from the
opportunities offered by ICTs• Important impact areas to consider based on the 10 WSIS
targets (UNCTAD)– Impacts of ICT access, especially on poor and rural communities;– Impacts of ICT use on educational outcomes and the importance of
school curricula in preparing students for the information society;– Impacts of ICT networks on health institutions and health outcomes;– Impacts arising from the availability of e-government services;– Impacts of improving access to information and knowledge by suitable
access to electronic content.
• Measuring impact in any field is difficult;
• Added difficulty for ICTs: complex, multi-faceted landscape of ICT, rapidly changing nature;
• Diverse nature of impact: macro, micro, direct, indirect, short-term, long term, qualitative, quantitative, social, economic, environmental,…
• Impact is not always positive, could be negative;
• Various frameworks and models;
• Lack of data and data collection;
• No internationally comparable indicators are available yet;
Complexity of Assessment: Impact Complexity of Assessment: Impact SpecificSpecific
ICT Impact Analysis – In PracticeICT Impact Analysis – In Practice
• The S-curve model is the one most adopted for ICT impact measurement;
• Misunderstanding
that impact analysis is
sequential; i.e. readiness
must be achieved, then
intensity and only then
can ICT have an impact;• This is not the message – impact analysis can be
performed at various stages of maturity and in various ways.
• Different levels of country development: Developed, Developing and leased developed
• Lack of awareness and capacity building in ICT and IS measurement;
• Limited statistical capabilities;
• Policies and Statistics: the missing link;
• Canopy if ICT is spread among different ministries, agencies, entities (MoICT, MoE, MoC, TRA, NSO, etc..).
Complexity of Assessment: Region Complexity of Assessment: Region SpecificSpecific
Striking differences in the Arab Striking differences in the Arab RegionRegion
Area of Interest GCC Non-GCC Developed
Countries
GDP Per Capita High Low to Moderate High
Family Size Large Large Small
Expatriates Large Small Small
Digital Divide Low to Moderate Moderate to High Low
Adult illiteracy rate Low to Moderate Low to High Low to Zero
Comparison of Arab versus developed countries in selected areasComparison of Arab versus developed countries in selected areas
• OECD, ITU UNCTAD, WB, UN Regional Commissions, IDRC, Donors are all active;
• Their contributions vary from the 3-stage impact analysis model, to various socio-economic impact models:- Strong evidence of positive impact on GDP growth,
employment creation, and increased labor productivity;
• Partnership on Measuring ICT for Development (2004) plays a role in IS measurement including measuring the Impact of ICT
• Research is ongoing; Task Group on Impact (2007), led by OECD with ESCWA as a member.
International/Regional International/Regional StakeholdersStakeholders
• Plays an active role on all matters related to IS and ICT measurement including capacity building (national, regional, and international levels)
• Contributes to the work of the Partnership and collaborates with ITU, UNCTAD, AITRS, MCIT on research and projects;
• Dedicates a track in its work plan on Measurement and Impact of ICT (Studies, EGM, Workshop) from 2009 until 2015.
The Role of ESCWAThe Role of ESCWA
• Impact of ICT on Community Development in ESCWA Member Countries” (Pub. 2009);
• Building a Common Benchmarking Model for the ESCWA Region (Pub. 2010);
• EGM on Standardizing Information Society Measurements in the ESCWA Region (2011);
• Awareness workshop on Standardizing Information Society Measurement Models (2011);
• Impact of ICT and selected e-Services on socio-economic Development (Pub. end of 2012);
• EGM on the role of ICT in socio-economic development (2013);
• Impact of ICT on Arab youth (2013).
Our Latest and Future WorkOur Latest and Future Work
Source: UNCTAD, Measuring the Impacts of Information and Communication Technology for Development, 2011Source: UNCTAD, Measuring the Impacts of Information and Communication Technology for Development, 2011
Methodologies of Impact Methodologies of Impact Assessment Assessment
Methodologies Strengths (+) Weaknesses (-) NotesAnalytical techniques
• Objectivity• Use of a existing data
• Model assumptions• Reliability and
availability of input data
Can be performed at the macro, sectoral, and micro-economic levels
Statistical Surveys
• Reliability of output• Perception questions
provide data on causal links
• Expensive, require time
• Perception questions lack objectivity
Can be a direct source of data on ICT impacts
Case Studies Offers a wide range of approaches and data sources
Flexibility of scope but findings not generalisable.
source of much of the data on ICT impacts
Panel Studies Can provide good baseline data and account for time lags
Expensive and may suffer from unit attrition over time.
longitudinal data, may be survey-based
• Timeline: most economic changes take significant amounts of time. Statistical studies correlating access to ICTs with GDP growth have only been possible through the use of longitudinal studies;
• Subjective Indicators: it has been argued that without subjective indicators, impact measurement are bound to be inadequate;
• Baseline: (something to measure against) baselining will greatly empower analysts to understand the impact;
ICT impact assessment is better understood if it considers the perspectives of target groups.
Considerations Related to Considerations Related to MethodologyMethodology
Impact of ICT and selected Impact of ICT and selected e-Services on socio-e-Services on socio-
economic development economic development (end (end 2012)2012)
Upcoming Research/StudyUpcoming Research/Study
• Allows countries in the region to assess and measure and the impact of selected e-services on social and economic development in terms of:
improved efficiency and productivity;
effectiveness of government processes, reducing costs and optimizing resources;
• Policy makers: e-Services that should be prioritized for maximum impact on socio-economic development.
Objective of the StudyObjective of the Study
• WSIS Geneva PoA, action line “C7”, stresses that ICT applications (e-Services) can support sustainable development;
• Benefits of Streaming ICTs in traditional services: Improves efficiency; Saves time and effort; Speeds up processing; Promotes better participation; Enhances transparency; Facilitates access to governmental services and public
information.
Why E-Services?Why E-Services?
• Measuring impact of e-services is contextual and not easily quantifiable;
• Most e-services projects in the region has focused on ICT implementation side, vs. understanding the impact on citizens/targeted communities;
• Existing data indicates intriguing research questions on ICT impact.
Impact of E-ServicesImpact of E-Services
• Combination of 3 methodologies: Analytical techniques, Statistical Surveys, Case Studies;
1.Analysis and synthesis;
2.Case study research: Drawing upon research from the International Communities and the ESCWA member countries, illustrative case studies will be examined for lessons learned;
3.Statistical surveys: Utilizing online data collection mechanisms, representative sampling and extrapolative modeling will be undertaken.
Proposed Study MethodologyProposed Study Methodology
Practical ExamplesPractical Examples
• Analyze changes in relation to one another to find relationships/associations;
• Identify changes in pattern, and shifts in trend;
• Explain trends in relation to policy/environment changes for country/region;
HDI as a Socio-Economic HDI as a Socio-Economic IndicatorIndicator
HDI Index – ESCWA member countriesHDI Index – ESCWA member countries
• Will analyse countries in top, lower and mid-tier to give a generic overviewWill analyse countries in top, lower and mid-tier to give a generic overview
HDI– ESCWA member countriesHDI– ESCWA member countries
• Covering GCC, Levant and LDCs
• Mid-tier - Oman part of GCC hence we will look at Jordan for this
example
• Lower tier – Sudan lack of data hence we will look at Yemen
(United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Yemen)
• Covering GCC, Levant and LDCs• Mid-tier - Oman part of GCC hence we will look at Jordan for this example• Lower tier – Sudan lack of data hence we will look at Yemen
(United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and Yemen)
HDI vs. BroadbandHDI vs. Broadband
HDI Index vs broadband subscriptions (per 100)HDI Index vs broadband subscriptions (per 100)
Source: Source: HDI – UNDP HDR report country profilesHDI – UNDP HDR report country profilesBroadband subscriptions (per 100) - The World BankBroadband subscriptions (per 100) - The World Bank
HDI vs. BroadbandHDI vs. Broadband
HDIHDI Index vs. broadband subscriptions (per 100)Index vs. broadband subscriptions (per 100)
Impact/trend**Impact/trend**related shift in trendrelated shift in trend
Source: Source: HDI – UNDP HDR report country profilesHDI – UNDP HDR report country profilesBroadband subscriptions (per 100) - The World BankBroadband subscriptions (per 100) - The World Bank
Further
investigation
required
HDI vs. InternetHDI vs. Internet
HDI Index vs. Internet users (per 100)HDI Index vs. Internet users (per 100)
Source: Source: HDI – UNDP HDR report country profilesHDI – UNDP HDR report country profilesInternet users (per 100) - The World BankInternet users (per 100) - The World Bank
HDI vs. InternetHDI vs. Internet
HDI Index vs Internet users (per 100)HDI Index vs Internet users (per 100)
** Impact/trend**** Impact/trend**To investigate furtherTo investigate further
Source: Source: HDI – UNDP HDR report country profilesHDI – UNDP HDR report country profilesInternet users (per 100) - The World BankInternet users (per 100) - The World Bank
Further
investigation
required
HDI vs MobileHDI vs Mobile
HDI Index vs mobile subscriptions (per 100)HDI Index vs mobile subscriptions (per 100)
Source: Source: HDI – UNDP HDR report country profilesHDI – UNDP HDR report country profilesMobile subscriptions (per 100) - The World BankMobile subscriptions (per 100) - The World Bank
HDI vs. MobileHDI vs. Mobile
HDI Index vs. mobile subscriptions (per 100)HDI Index vs. mobile subscriptions (per 100)
** Impact/trend**** Impact/trend**Largely linear correlation and sudden Largely linear correlation and sudden change, perhaps policy related?change, perhaps policy related?
Source: Source: HDI – UNDP HDR report country profilesHDI – UNDP HDR report country profilesMobile subscriptions (per 100) - The World BankMobile subscriptions (per 100) - The World Bank
26
Further
investigation
required
Relationships and AssociationsRelationships and Associations
HDI is a composite indicator.
Correlation in HDI implies correlation in a sub index which makes up HDI
i.e.
Health
Education
Living standards
• Other composite indicators can be examined in order to determine further research and the direction of our study.
Further investigation
required
Taking the example of UAE mobile subscriptions (per 100)…And expanding to include other years. We can:• Try to explain the anomaly between 2009-2010 - for
mobile subscriptions through wider policy/environmental changes;
• Or try to predict projections - i.e. estimated mobile rate for 2011 based on an established trend or previously established relationship with baseline indicator (if any).
e.g.
e.g.
Trend analysis and projectionsTrend analysis and projections
Other Examples – Civil SocietyOther Examples – Civil Society
Tip of the iceberg…• Indicators in comparison to registered Civil Society
Organizations (CSO)• Using Jordan (considered average in terms of maturity) • Compared against the regional average for registered CSO
Source: UNDESA – csonet.org
Initial trends can be seen
Further investigation
required
Other Examples… Other Examples…
• e-Services;e-Services;
• Labor Market;Labor Market;
• Education;Education;
• Skills/Graduates;Skills/Graduates;
• Migration;Migration;
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI);Foreign Direct Investment (FDI);
• Technology Transfer;Technology Transfer;
• Research & Development;Research & Development;
• Patent Registration;Patent Registration;
• Other social indicators;Other social indicators;
• Other economic indicators;Other economic indicators;
ConclusionsConclusions
Findings present some interesting results, however:Findings present some interesting results, however:
• Further investigation is required to find deeper Further investigation is required to find deeper correlations;correlations;
• Sample data used as an example;Sample data used as an example;• Comparison between more indicators needed;Comparison between more indicators needed;• Timeframe of indicators should be expanded to Timeframe of indicators should be expanded to
look at longer periods;look at longer periods;• Trends, shifts and changes must be mapped Trends, shifts and changes must be mapped
against wider changes i.e. policy, regional etc;against wider changes i.e. policy, regional etc;• Lack of sufficient data for the region should be Lack of sufficient data for the region should be
remedied.remedied.
