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PWI Seminar

“Future proofing our railway against climate change”

Robert AmpomahChief Technology Officer,

Network Rail

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CAREER JOURNEY

Briti

sh R

ail

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▪ Buckles/derailments▪ Equipment failures▪ Embankment desiccation▪ Damage from storms▪ Damage from

flooding/heavy rain▪ Speed restrictions

Weather impact on our Infrastructure:

Damaged wheel

Fallen trees on the track

Damaged wheel

Speed Restrictions

Points failures

Electrical Component FailuresDesiccation of earthworksDerailment due to buckle

at LangworthFallen trees on the

track

Flooding and land slips

Carmontderailment

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Weather related failures on other assets impacts TrackHeavy and convective rainfall and sea level rises will affect earthworks, structures and drainage systems

Dawlish 2007

Dawlish 2014

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Climate Emergency?

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Weather related impact on the railway are rising with the increased frequency of events.

For Track assets the Cost of heat related delays in the long hot summer of 2018 estimated at £20mill (in Sch.8)

Worse than hot summers of 2006 and 2003 (estimated at £2.2mill and £12mill resp.)

Cost of Weather related failures

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Vulnerable Track Assets will become more prone to buckling

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36oC

38oC

38oC

41oC

38oC

41oC

41oC

37oC

35oC

42oC

39oC

39oC

41oC

42oC

44oC

41oC

44oC

44oC

40oC

37oC

45oC

41oC

Fig 1: Projected max temps - 2050 Fig 2: Projected max temps - 2070

By 2050 peak temperatures• Scotland peak temps of 35 deg C

• South East peak temps of 42 deg C

By 2070 peak temperatures• Scotland Peak temps of 39 deg C

• SE Peak temps of 45 deg C

Track condition

Apply Watchman

Impose 30/60mph

speed restriction

Impose 20mph speed

restriction

Good condition SFT + 32 SFT + 37 SFT + 42

Ballast shortage SFT + 15 SFT + 18 SFT + 20

In general CWR Track is resilient to the rail temperature values above (with SFT of 27oC)

(Equivalent to air temps of approx. 40oC)

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Impact of hot weather on infrastructureStandard deviation trend calc. in delays due to hot weather

As the temperature rises incident count and passenger train delays increase.

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What other impact is climate change projected to have? • Very Cold winters will become less frequent (but may still be very

cold)

• Likelihood of earthwork failures from shrink-swell effect of drought and convective rainfall

• Major floods and coastal storms could become five times more frequent by 2070

• Wind speeds, lightning and humidity may increase

• High risk of sea level rise and severe coastal erosion

All of which will affect how our network performs

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Government and rail industry demand improvements in system resilience to cope with our changing climate.Six aspects of resilience have been outlined in the National Infrastructure Commission report in May 2020 for the UK government

Extreme weather vs. railways

“A railway that is safe and more resilient to

the effects of weather, now and in

the future”

The Future Railway therefore needs to have:▪ High reliability▪ More capacity▪ Better value for money▪ A 'predict and prevent' ethos

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Projected S&C Construction Type - Base Case

UIC-60 113lb FB Other FB Bullhead Other (inc unknown) 12

• Based on current policy and projected renewal volumes

o Plainline - 62% installed to modern standard by 2050

o S&C - 33% installed to modern variant (UIC60) by 2050 (but includes all mainline and secondary line connections)

We also need to implement:• Enhanced, risk based and targeted

summer and seasonal prep activities including shared best practice

• Development of track ‘predict and prevent’ tools and embedded measurement technology

Track policy delivery:

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Projected Plain Line Construction Type - Base Case

F40 and later Older concrete Timber Steel Other (inc unknown)

Weather Resilience & Climate Change

Adaptation

Structures

PT&RSS&C

Buildings Mining and Tunnels

Lineside(Vegetation

Management)

Drainage

Track

Earthworks

CERDs

Scour

Maintenance

Control, Command and Signalling

Electrical and Plant

CERDs – Coastal, Estuarine and River DefencesPT&RS – Plant, Traction and Rolling StockS&C – Switches and Crossings

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Network Rail’s Weather Resilience and Climate Change policy defines how we will plan and manage weather impacts and how we consider climate change into our asset adaptation plans.

➢Each asset will have this policy embedded into individual asset policies and will need to incorporate these into Route asset management strategies.

➢Our plans will drive us to:• Anticipate effects of weather• Develop ways to Resist weather impacts• Absorb the risks through improved design

thresholds• Implement robust recovery plans through incident

response • And Adapt to the threat of adverse and extreme

weather

What Actions are we taking?Network Rail’s Climate change policy

NR WRCCA PolicyConsider how climate change might amplify risk

Adapt at construction and at asset renewal Replace like for better rather than like for like

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What Actions are we taking?Developing vulnerability ‘hotspots’ GIS maps

NR are undertaking:• Vulnerability risk assessment of

weather and climate impacts• Determining the economic impact

of rail disruption on UK • The assessment will feed into a

system-wide vulnerability tool • Creation of better tools to provide

better knowledge (decision support tools)

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• Network Rail’s Climate Change guidance supporting risk assessment and adaptation across all assets.

• Network Rail Routes produce and deliver Weather Resilience strategies

• Activities focussed on increasing resilience on existing assets (example at CowleyBridge – Wales)

• Measuring local and national economic impact and effect

What does adaptation look like?Adaptation pathways – for managing flooding! Define preparation and preparedness strategies and restore operation after damage has occurred/ to minimise disruption

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Looking ahead (Track)• Research and Development of dynamic lateral resistance

models to determine vulnerability risk and Act early• Vulnerability mapping for all assets – using GIS tools • Apply wider Systems thinking• Further research and detailed analysis into Stress Free

Temperature range for UK (Regionalised SFT?)

• Predict and Prevent decision support tools• Improve and adapt construction and maintenance

practices, new skills and competences• Alterations to track tolerances in NR standards and Asset

policies (improved alignment, track geometry and track bed/ballast)

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▪ Climate change is happening and we need to adapt▪ Extreme high temperatures will increase incidence of rail buckles and a

significant rise in train delays from speed restrictions▪ Collaboration across industry, with Universities, other external agencies and

the supply chain is necessary

To conclude:

Our Ability to make intelligent decisions thanks to the availability of data and having the right technology available to prevent problems, will allow the railways to adapt from our Victorian past, to the green,

sustainable transport option of the future and to cope with the challenges presented by a changing climate

Thank you!

There’s got to be a

better way!