Psychology of Intel

Exploring Cognitive Biases17 October 2007Team NSAMark Blair Dan McNulty Brittany Monteparte Andreea Neagu Adrienne Sluga

Agenda Key Findings Definitions Anchoring Effect Availability Heuristic Conjunction Fallacy Video Confirmation Bias Groupthink Application

Key Findings Cognitive Biases Are Not An Indictment Of An Individuals Analytical Abilities Two Types Of Analysts Those Who Are Aware Of Their Own Biases Those Who Are Not Aware Of Their Own Biases

Memory Is Not Localized

Cognitive Biases Cognitive biases are mental errors caused by our simplified information processing strategies. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richard J. Heuer

Strategic decision making is particularly vulnerable to the influence of cognitive biases, misguided thought patterns that result from the simplifying strategies or decision-making shortcuts known as judgment heuristics. These common errors in judgment can lead to disastrous consequences and are often the result of either insufficient information or not enough of the right kind of information. Cognitive Bias in Everyday Strategic Planning by Loren Gary

Cognitive Biases Fundamental Limitations In Human Mental Processes Simple Rules Of Thumb Leading To Faulty Judgments

Similar To Optical Illusions Physical Images That Appear Misleading The Brain Carries Weaknesses Awareness Of The Bias Does Not Produce A More Accurate Perception

Source: http://www.eyetricks.com/illusions.htm

Source: http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/psych-intel/art12.html

Biases Any systematic deviation from the truth that affects the conclusions you make based on your data. The National EMSC Date Analysis Resource Center

When a point of view prevents impartial judgment on issues relating to the subject of that point of view. MedicineNet, Inc

Bias, or systematic error, favors particular results. Annenburg Foundation

Fallacy A fallacy is a general type of appeal (or category of argument) that resembles good reasoning, but that we should not find to be persuasive. http://www.cuyamaca.edu/brucethompson/Fallacies/discussion .asp

Fallacies are mistakes of reasoning, as opposed to making mistakes that are of a factual nature. http://philosophy.hku.hk/think/

Heuristics A heuristic is a mental shortcut that allows people to solve problems and make judgments quickly and efficiently. The rule-of-thumb strategies shorten decision-making time and allow people to function without constantly stopping to think about the next course of action. While heuristics are helpful in many situations, they can also lead to biases. Psychologist, Kendra Van Wagner

Anchoring Effect

Anchoring Effect Also Known As Focalism Tendency To Rely Too Heavily On One Trait Or Piece Of Information Bias Toward A Certain Value Emphasis Based On When The Information Is Received Rather Than On The Strength Of The InformationSource: http://changingminds.org/explanations/theories/anchoring_adjustment.htm

Question #1 Is the Mississippi River longer or shorter than 500 miles? Give estimate of how long the Mississippi River actually is.

Is the Mississippi River longer or shorter than 5000 miles? Give estimate of how long the Mississippi River actually is.

Relevance To Intelligence One Of The Most Dangerous Biases For Intelligence Professionals Analyst Must Be Aware Of Possible Shortcuts Assessment Of Variables In The Decision


How To Prevent It? Three Methods: Decision Support Tools Training Devils Advocate Having one individual search for refuting evidence is likely to lead to better analysis Rethink Problem From Beginning Avoid Any Prior Judgment As A Starting Point

Source: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IBS/is_1_28/ai_82351480/pg_3

Availability Heuristic

Availability Heuristic Tendency To Overestimate The Probabilities Of Events Associated With Memorable Occurrences Base Decisions On What Is Remembered Rather Than Complete Data Information Mentally Available Media And News Reports Have A Significant Effect DemonstrationSource: http://changingminds.org/explanations/theories/availability_heuristic.htm

Questions #2, #3, & #4 Are there more words that begin with R or are there more words that have R in the third place in the English language? Are there more words that begin with K or are there more words that have K in the third place in the English language? Which is a more likely cause of death in the United States: being killed by falling airplane parts or being killed by a shark? Do more Americans die from a) homicide and car accidents, or b) diabetes and stomach cancer? Which claims more lives in the United States: lightning or tornadoes?

Relevance To Intelligence The Soviet Break Up Difficulty In Imagining The Break-up Due To Lack Of Experience Not As Difficult To Imagine A Return To A Communist Regime In Russia Because Of Familiarity


How To Prevent It? Be Aware Of All The Diverse Factors That Influence A Decision Considering What Information Is Truly Relevant Rather Than Simply Available ACH

Conjunction Fallacy

Conjunction Fallacy Tendency To Assume That Two Or More Specific Conditions Are More Probable Than A Single General One Associating Quantity Of Events With Quantity Of Probability

Source: http://changingminds.org/explanations/theories/conjunction_fallacy.htm

Question #5 Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Is she more likely to be a bank teller or a bank teller active in the feminist movement?

VideoKahneman & Tversky

Confirmation Bias

Confirmation Bias Tendency To Search For Information That Confirms Ones Fixed Ideas When Building A Hypothesis: More Likely To Use Information That Supports That Decision Avoid Things That Are Contradictory To The Hypothesis

Source: http://changingminds.org/explanations/theories/confirmation_bias.htm

Confirmation Bias Test The Following Hypothesis: All Cards With Vowels Have An Even Number On The Back Select Two Cards To Flip Over:

Confirmation Bias Correct Answers: A: Confirming Data 7: Disconfirming Data

Confirming Data

Disconfirming Data

This Choice Provides No Indication Of Whether The Hypothesis Is True

This Choice Provides No Indication Of Whether The Hypothesis Is True

Relevance To Intelligence Major Chris Tatarka US Military Academy Enemy Course Of Action (ECOA) Tendency To Look For Information Or Reports That Support It Likely To Deploy Assets Only Along The Most Expected Enemy Axis Of Advance Discount Reports That Do Not Confirm The ECOA

General Ulysses S. Grant The Battle Of Shiloh (1862) Ignored Information And Reports

Source: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IBS/is_1_28/ai_82351480/pg_2

How To Prevent It?Three Methods: Decision-Support Tools Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)

Training Devils Advocate

Source: http://www.fas.org/irp/eprint/pirolli.pdf http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IBS/is_1_28/ai_82351480/pg_2

Groupthink

Groupthink A mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive in-group, when the members striving for unanimity override their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action. Irving L. Janus Victims of Groupthink

Source: http://tataworld.com/pdf/Biases%20and%20Prejudices%20in%20Intelligence%20AnalysisJohn%20Nolan.pdf

Groupthink Characteristics Of Groupthink Idea Of Invulnerability Collective Efforts To Rationalize Or Discount Warnings Unquestioned Belief In The Groups Moral Correctness Stereotypes Of Those Not In the Group Self-Censorship Pressures To Conform Illusions Of Unanimity Protect The Group From Contrasting Viewpoints

Source: http://changingminds.org/explanations/theories/confirmation_bias.htm

Relevance To Intelligence Senate Intelligence Committee Report - 2004 Intelligence Community And Iraqs Weapons Of Mass Destruction Program

John F. Kennedy And Bay Of Pigs Invasion Group Cohesion Mind Guarding

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5403731/ http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/ops/bay-of-pigs.htm

How To Prevent It? Select A Devils Advocate Divide The Group Into SubGroups Discuss What Is Happening With Others Not In The Group Gather Anonymous Feedback

Source: http://www.valuebasedmanagement.net/methods_janis_groupthink.html

Application

Bias And Structured Analysis Most Dangerous In The Beginning (Organizing) Stages Of Analysis Confirmation Bias Anchoring Effect Availability Heuristic Conjunction Fallacy Gamblers Fallacy Overweighing Historical Data To Reduce The Probability Of Repeated Experiences

Combating Biases With The Structured Approach Focus On Context Focus On Most Indicative Information Ignores Extraneous Information Identifies Relationships Of Data The Structure Is Non-Assumptive And Not Susceptible To Bias

Information Dominance And The Availability Heuristic Modern Research: Memory Is Not Localized Information Recall Is Likely The Result Of The Activation Of Neural NetworksQuery: Who was the teacher who died in the Challenger Disaster Disaster?Female Astronauts When Harry Met Sally Ride Field Famous Sallys Hemings Struthers Movies/Actors

Cue: Sally Sally...

Who Was On The Challenger? The Answer Is: Christa McAuliffe Sally Ride Gained Notoriety As: The First US Female Astronaut Assigned To The Rogers Commission To Investigate The Challenger Disaster Sally Ride Is Still Alive Today

A Google Search Using: Sally+Challenger+Disaster+Teacher Returns:

9 Mentions Of The Name Sally Ride Most Near The Top Of The List All Containing The Full Name Sally Ride (Ride Was Not A Search Parameter) 4 Mentions Of The Name Christa McAuliffe 1 Mention Of McAuliffe Most Near The Bottom Of The List However, The Search Engine Worked Perfectly. It Did Exactly What It Is Designed To Do!

Data Retrieval Excluding The Term Sally Only Returns Two Mentions Of Christa McAuliffe The Inclusion Of Sally Actually Returned More Mentions Of Christa McAuliffe Sally Is A Powerful Informational Cue And Demonstrates An Informational Dominance

Data Retrieval Structured Analysis Combats This Bias By Organizing And Weighing Data In The Exclusive Context Of The Intelligence QueryRequired Parameter Heavily Weighted Info Anecdotal Data No Indication Dick Scobee Michael J. Smith Astronauts Killed in Challenge Disaster Ellison Onizuka Gregory Jarvis Barbara Morgan Astronaut Teachers Teachers in Space

Specific Contextual Data Mismatched cue and data!Pam Leestma Arthur Walker, Jr Richard Feynman Eugene Covert Challenger Disaster (Rogers) Commission Robert Hotz Neil Armstrong David Acheson Albert Wheelon William Rogers

Christa McAuliffe

Chuck Yeager Alton G. Keel, Jr

Judith Resnik

Sally Ride Robert Rummel Joseph Sutter

Ronald McNair

Donald Kutyna

Blink And Info Weighting Malcolm Gladwells Blink Cited Cook County Hospitals Dilemma Of Predicting Heart Attacks Over Next 72 Hours Lee Goldmans 4-Factor Algorithm More Accurate Than Seasoned Cardiologists Conclusion1. 2. Cardiologists Considered Information Not Relevant To The Context Of The Query A Layman (Or A Computer For That Matter), With An Hour Of Training, Could Learn To Be More Accurate At Predicting Heart Attacks In Next 72 Hours Than A Seasoned Cardiologist

Context And The Query Structured Approaches Focus Specifically On Indicative Contextually Exclusive Data Context Is ParamountRequired Parameter Heavily Weighted Info Anecdotal Data No Indication

Specific Contextual Data(Goldmans Algorithm)Fluid In Lungs Indicators Of Heart Attack In Next 72 Hours Unstable Angina Systolic Blood Pressure > 100mm Hg ECG Evidence

Non-Contextual DataDiet Medical History Risk Factors For Heart Attack Over Lifetime Exercise Habits Cholesterol

Diabetes

Family History Of Heart Attacks

Thank You For Your Attention Are There Any Questions? Contact Information: Mark Blair: [email protected] Daniel McNulty: [email protected] Brittany Monteparte: [email protected] Andreea Neagu: [email protected] Adrienne Sluga: [email protected]

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Psychology of Intel