PROSPERITY PULSE - Ohio Chamber Research Foundationo Pulse survey. The quarterly survey is an invaluable

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Text of PROSPERITY PULSE - Ohio Chamber Research Foundationo Pulse survey. The quarterly survey is an...

  • I N S I G H T F R O M O H I O B U S I N E S S L E A D E R S

    PROSPERITY PULSE

    S U M M A RY R E P O RT 4 Q | 2018

  • Thank you for participating in the Ohio Chamber Research Foundation’s 4th Quarter 2018 Prosperity Pulse survey. The quarterly survey is an invaluable opportunity to hear directly from business leaders across the state regarding not only the current conditions of Ohio’s economy, but expectations for the future, and would not be possible without your participation.

    This quarter saw the Prosperity Pulse drop from its previous record high of 139.9 in 3Q down to 103.5, a figure that still indicates “above average” economic conditions but gives reason to take a closer look as to what may have caused such a sharp drop.

    The data shows that two main factors are most attributable to the decrease in the Prosperity Pulse index. The first is a reduction in future planned capital expenditures. Where in 3Q, 72% of respondents said they were planning on capital expenditures in the next three months, only 15% said the same in 4Q. The second is a decrease in companies with reported job openings. Where 35% of firms indicated they had either skilled or unskilled positions open in 3Q, just 10.5% of firms reported open positions in 4Q.

    While we don’t know with certainty what may have caused those shifts, there may be a few clues regarding a changing political environment and poor stock market performance. The November elections led to divided control of Congress, creating uncertainty that may have caused most business owners to put capital projects and hiring on hold until some of the initial dust had settled in Washington. The first political skirmish of the new Congress led to the partial federal government shutdown, over which negotiations extended through the entire window of the survey period and thus may have led to concerns about further instability. Widespread hesitation in the stock markets, due in part to reports of a rough holiday retail season that turned out not to be true, ended with the worst December market performance in history.

    The cost of healthcare, employee benefits and the impact of taxes remain among the top concerns of business leaders in Ohio. However, several bright spots can still be found throughout the survey: Every respondent (100%) indicated they added jobs in 4Q AND planned to add jobs in the next quarter. Also, a strong majority of business leaders remain optimistic about the future economic health of their companies.

    Please enjoy the highlights of the latest Prosperity Pulse, and again, thank you for sharing your insights!

    ABOUT THE OHIO CHAMBER OF COMMERCE RESEARCH FOUNDATION

    The Ohio Chamber of Commerce Research Foundation, Inc. is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization whose mission is to provide non-partisan, educational resources on public policy issues that may impact Ohio’s economy, job creation, and long-term competitiveness.

    H I G H L I G H T S | 4Q | 2 0 1 8

    Highlights ...........................................................................2

    Survey Results ............................................................3-6

    Demographics ............................................................7

    2

  • S U RV E Y R E S U LT S | 4Q | 2 0 1 8

    THE PROSPERITY PULSE INDEX The Prosperity Pulse is an index measurement of the economic health of Ohio companies, taking into consideration the future outlook of five key indicators: profits, employment levels, unfilled openings, capital expenditures, and overall economic optimism.

    100 Above Average

    1 00 = Ave rage Economic Conditions

    1Q 2017

    100

    2Q 2017

    102

    3Q 2017

    100

    4Q 2017

    108

    1Q 2018

    116.3

    2Q 2018

    115.6

    103.5

    4Q 2018

    3Q 2018

    139.9

    Prosperity Pulse Components 4Q Positive Change from 3Q Anticipated Profits 25% -23

    Plans to Add Jobs 100% +2

    Unfilled Jobs 11% -24

    Planned Capital Expenditures 15% -57

    Overall Economic Outlook 40% -9

    3

  • S U RV E Y R E S U LT S | 4Q | 2 0 1 8

    OPTIMISM Percentage of business leaders that are OPTIMISTIC about the future economic health of their company:

    1Q 2017

    2Q 2017

    3Q 2017

    4Q 2017

    1Q 2018

    2Q 2018

    3Q 2018

    4Q 2018

    69 % 74

    %

    71 % 74

    %

    92 %

    91 %

    91 %

    91 %

    49.5% GOOD

    21.3% EXCELLENT

    19.9% FAIR

    9.3% POOR

    ECONOMIC CLIMATE Percentage of business leaders that say the economic climate is…

    4

  • S U RV E Y R E S U LT S | 4Q | 2 0 1 8

    TOP CONCERNS by REGION: I N O R D E R O F M O S T C O N C E R N E D

    • Cost of Healthcare • State & Local Taxes • Poor Sales

    • Cost of Healthcare • Competitive Business

    Environment • Ohio’s Political Environment

    • Ohio’s Political Environment • Attracting/Retaining

    Qualified Employees • Inflation

    • Competitive Business Environment • State & Local Taxes • Ohio’s Political Environment

    • Cost of Healthcare • Competitive Business

    Environment

    NW

    SW

    NE

    SE

    C

    TOP 5 CONCERNS of OHIO BUSINESS LEADERS

    4Q 3Q 1. Cost of Healthcare 1

    2. Data Security T5

    3. Cost of All Employee Benefits 3

    T4. Ohio’s Political Environment 2

    T4. State and Local Taxes 8

    5

  • S U RV E Y R E S U LT S | 4Q | 2 0 1 8

    81% excellent

    or good

    43% only fair or poor

    NW Ohio businesses are most confident about the

    coming quarter, with

    51.1% expecting a

    better 1Q 2019 for their company.

    FINDINGS of NOTE

    Employers in SE Ohio have the most aggressive hiring

    plans, with

    80.5% of businesses indicating they

    plan to add more than 25 employees in the next

    quarter.

    53.3% of wholesale

    businesses saw increased profits

    in 4Q vs the previous quarter.

    Demand for employees continues to remain strong in the

    HEALTHCARE sector, with

    50% reporting open positions in 4Q.

    LEAST satisfied

    MOST satisfied

    THE NATION COMPARED TO OHIO Most Important Issue Is…

    National Comparison: NFIB Research Foundation Small Business Optimism Index, January 2019

    ISSUE NATION OHIO Quality of Labor 23% 10% (5th)

    Taxes 15% 10% (4th)

    Government Regulations 12% 12% (2nd)

    Region of the state most satisfied with the overall economic conditions?

    Southeast Ohio 81% excellent or good

    Least satisfied? Northeast Ohio 43% only fair or poor

    6

  • Ag ric

    ul tu

    re /F

    or es

    tr y

    M in

    in g/

    O il

    & G

    as

    U til

    iti es

    Co ns

    tr uc

    tio n

    M an

    uf ac

    tu rin

    g

    W ho

    le sa

    le

    Re ta

    il

    Tr an

    sp or

    ta tio

    n/ W

    ar eh

    ou se

    In fo

    rm at

    io n

    Se rv

    ic es

    Fi na

    nc e/

    In su

    ra nc

    e

    Re al

    E st

    at e

    Pr of

    es si

    on al

    /T ec

    hn ic

    al

    Ed uc

    at io

    n

    H ea

    lth ca

    re

    O th

    er

    3.4 %

    1.2 %

    1.0 %

    11. 5%

    9. 1%

    3.7 %

    15 .9

    %

    4. 4%

    .5% 3.7 %

    3.7 %

    13 %

    .7% 2.5 %

    25 .7%

    SURVEY PROFILE The Ohio Chamber of Commerce Research Foundation partnered with Clout Research to conduct the Prosperity Pulse, a quarterly survey of business leaders in various sectors across the State of Ohio regarding the strength of their companies and the state economy.

    The survey included 408 respondents who completed survey interviews online and on the telephone with live agent interviewers between January 28 and February 10,2019. It carries a confidence interval of 95% and a margin of error of +/- 4.75 percentage points.

    D E M O G R A P H I C S | 4Q | 2 0 1 8

    INDUSTRY SECTOR

    Under $500k 58.0% $500k-$999k 19.7% $1M-$5M 17.4% $6M-$10M 2.5% $11M-$50M 0.7% $51M-$100M 0.7% $101M-$500M 0% $501M-$999M 0.5%

    $1B+ 0.5%

    BY COMPANY GROSS REVENUE REGION

    NW

    NE

    C

    SW

    SE

    11.5%

    28.7%

    19.9%

    29.9%

    10.0%

    Note: 0.2% declined to answer

    BUSINESS LEADERS PARTICIPATING IN 4Q PROSPERITY PULSE SURVEY:

    7

  • CONNECT with US

    in

    @OCCResearch

    www.facebook.com/occresearch

    Ohio Chamber of Commerce Research

    Foundation

    34 S. Third Street, Suite 100 | Columbus, Ohio 43215 research@ohiochamber.com

    614.629.0921

    www.ohiochamberfoundation.com

    C O N N E C T | 4Q | 2 0 1 8