Project TEK 3006

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Text of Project TEK 3006

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    Table of Contents

    Abstract .................................................................................................................................. 2

    1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Overview .................................................................................................................................. 3 1.2 Problem statement .............................................................................................................. 4 1.3 Goal of the report .............................................................................................................. 5 1.4 Limitations .............................................................................................................................. 5

    2 Arctic issues ...................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Overview .................................................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Arctic Hazards ....................................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Uncertainties in Arctic ........................................................................................................ 7 2.4 Risks in Arctic ........................................................................................................................ 9 2.5 Risk picture ............................................................................................................................ 9

    3 Risk Assessment ........................................................................................................... 13 3.1 The HAZID process ...........................................................................................................15

    4 A case of Risk exposure of offshore platforms in the presence of Icebergs ................................................................................................................................................ 20

    4.1 Overview ................................................................................................................................21 4.2 Initiating event .............................................................................................................................. 21 4.3 Barrier .............................................................................................................................................. 22 4.4 Fault tree Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 22 4.5 Consequence analysis ................................................................................................................ 24

    4.5.1 Consequence classification..........................................................................................25

    5. Conclusions and Future recommendations ....................................................... 27

    6. References ..................................................................................................................... 28

    Risk in Arctic operations under influence of different covariates

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    Abstract

    The growing interests in Arctic oil and gas resources has increased in recent times. It

    has been estimated that 25% of the remaining worlds oil reserves can be found in

    Arctic. It is a challenge for the development of projects in Arctic regions due to harsh

    and vulnerable climatic conditions which can increase the risk related to human and

    environment. Highly complexed and technologically advanced system are needed for

    development of such projects. However, risks and failure are inevitable and while

    operating in artic, it should always be considered about such risks and ways to

    mitigate it.

    This project gives an overview of the risks involved in artic operations. Working

    under Arctic conditions will be influenced by covariates like snow, ice, waves, low

    temperature, human factors, etc. Reliability and maintainability, process of

    maintenance, support activities, and reliable data and information are some of the

    factors that might be affected due to the presence of covariates. Risk management in

    Arctic is utterly a must to make decisions and to decrease the probability of hazards

    and deadly consequences. The effects of covariates in Arctic operations has been

    discussed in this paper and focus has been made to do a risk assessment for such

    challenge.

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    1 Introduction

    1.1 Overview

    Risk analysis can be either quantitative or qualitative approach in evaluating the

    unwanted event, analyzing the consequences, applying the mitigating measures and

    lowering down the impact as low as possible. Steps that can be followed in this

    concept of risk analysis can be as following :

    Identification of the incident

    Estimating its occurrence frequency

    Determine the consequences

    Develop risk level based on the frequency of occurrence and severity of

    consequences

    Apply control measures

    Reduce uncertainty

    Take decisions

    A proper risk analysis helps in controlling the unwanted situation, estimating damage

    of potential and facilitates in making decisions to control such situations by

    evaluating the effective measures. Hazard identification is one of the important

    process in the risk analysis. Use of barriers to prevent unwanted event is a must in

    lowering the risk. With every operational activities, maintenance or installation, there

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    are always certain risk or uncertainties associated. In addition, with different

    operational condition, level of risk can differ which in this report will be described.

    The change in the operational environment can influence the reliability and

    maintainability performance for any kind of operations to a certain extent [1]. The

    tough and harsh climatic conditions of the Arctic is one of the main challenge faced in

    exploring hydrocarbons in these areas. Taking such issues under considerations,

    Petroleum Safety Authority Norway (PSA) focuses on the safety barriers [2,3].

    Implementing these safety barriers can somehow lower the impact level and degree of

    severity of the consequences in case if unwanted event took place. This report will

    focus on Risk in Arctic under different covariates or uncertainties.

    Figure 1 : Oversight of Risk (Haddon, 1980)

    1.2 Problem statement

    Different critical factors related to environment such as temperature, snow, ice and

    icing, wind, ice drift, polar low or visibility can affect the Arctic operations. Besides,

    communicational and navigational challenges, challenges related with materials,

    human factors (ergonomics), political challenges or logistics challenges have to be

    considered while doing risk analysis of Arctic operations. Maintenance and

    operational tasks in Arctic needs major planning so that it can be carried out

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    efficiently. More importantly, lack of data and information on Arctic makes a

    challenge to do risk assessment. Uncertainties in weather forecast for example is a

    challenge which brings a risk to offshore operations [4]. The only difference between

    Arctic operations in compared to onshore operations is brought by harsh climate

    which has lots of adverse effects as pointed in above statements.

    This project will try to look at the potential risk factors in operation in Arctic and to

    implement reliability and maintenance in such environments.

    1.3 Goal of the report

    The goal is to make an approach in analyzing the risk factors which causes potential

    harms. Assessing the risks from hazard, identifying suitable measures that can

    eliminate or reduce the risk to an accepted level will be carried out in the report.

    1.4 Limitations

    There are lots of potential factors that can bring uncertainty in Arctic operations. Here

    in this report, impact on logistics, spare parts inventory will not be discussed in depth.

    More focus will be made upon the critical factors brought by the environment and its

    related issues.

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    2 Arctic issues

    2.1 Overview

    Arctic has large potential for energy. Offshore activities in the Arctic has created a

    new horizon for the oil and gas field developments. Such developments in Arctic are

    new and challenging. The working conditions can be harsh and challenging [5].

    Arctic is characterized by a very low temperature and most of the time it is dark. Such

    factors could lead in the reduction of efficiency of working personnel or the

    functionality of the safety system which can eventually lead to potential hazards.

    Experiences with working in cold climates are few, which has build a challenge for

    the operations in Arctic.

    Figure 2: Arctic picture

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    With growing interests in Arctic, new technologies have been developed for safe and

    sustainable operations thus lowering down the risk. Even in the presence of

    uncertainties, development of the technologies are promising and reliable to perform

    the offshore activities well. For example, ice conditions in Arctic can be a challenge

    and apart understanding the mechanics of ice and developing guide