Prestasi Ekonomi Suku Ketiga Tahun 2017 - Central Bank of ... · 3Q 2017 BNM Quarterly Bulletin 17 November 2017 Prestasi Ekonomi Suku Ketiga Tahun 2017 Gabenor Bank Negara Malaysia

3Q 2017 BNM Quarterly Bulletin

17 November 2017

Prestasi Ekonomi Suku Ketiga Tahun 2017

Gabenor

Bank Negara Malaysia

17 November 2017

Sidang Akhbar


17 November 2017

Sidang akhbar akan meliputi:

Prestasi ekonomi pada suku ketiga tahun 2017

Perkembangan monetari dan kewangan

Inisiatif dasar Bank Negara Malaysia

2


17 November 2017

Asia’s* Exports

Further expansion in global economic activity in the third quarter 2017

* Refers to Korea, Hong Kong SAR, C. Taipei, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia,

Thailand and Philippines

** Refers to latest available data

Source: National authorities, Bank Negara Malaysia estimates

Annual change, %

Source: National authorities, Bank Negara Malaysia estimates

Annual change, %

3.6

4.8

4.1

5.1

US Germany

Retail Sales

2Q17 3Q17

Growth in both the advanced and regional

economies continued to expand in 3Q 2017

Growth in the advanced economies was

supported by consumption and investment

Robust trade performance in Asia, driven by

continued external demand

Global Real GDP Growth

Domestic Demand in the Advanced Economies

2.52.3

1.5

6.9 6.8

6.2

5.14.6

3.6

0

2

4

6

8

Eu

ro a

rea

US

UK

Ph

ilip

pin

es

PR

Ch

ina

Ma

laysia

Indo

ne

sia

Sin

ga

po

re

Ko

rea

2Q17 3Q17

-10

0

10

20

1Q

-16

2Q

-16

3Q

-16

4Q

-16

1Q

-17

2Q

-17

3Q

-17**

Export Volume

Export Value

56 57

5958

US Euro area

Manufacturing PMI

2Q17 3Q17

Annual change, %Index (>50 = expansionary)

3


17 November 2017

The Malaysian economy recorded a higher growth of 6.2% in

the third quarter of 2017

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia

• Robust private sector spending

• Public sector remained

supportive of growth

• Continued strength in exports

– Partly offset by faster expansion

in imports

4

5.8 6.2

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1Q-16 2Q-16 3Q-16 4Q-16 1Q-17 2Q-17 3Q-17

Private consumption Private investment

Public consumption Public investment

Change in stocks Net exports

On the demand side, growth was anchored by

private sector spending

Annual change, % /

Ppt contribution to GDP

Private

domestic

demand

Public

sector


17 November 2017

Continued expansion across all economic sectors

Note: 1Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties

component


• Services

Expansion across all sub-sectors

• Manufacturing

Stronger global and domestic demand

• Mining

Higher natural gas production in Sabah

and Sarawak

• Agriculture

Slower rubber and CPO production due

to adverse weather conditions

• Construction

Slower non-residential activity, particularly

in the commercial segment

5

5.86.2

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1Q-16 2Q-16 3Q-16 4Q-16 1Q-17 2Q-17 3Q-17

Services ManufacturingAgriculture MiningConstruction

On the supply side, services and manufacturing

sectors remained the key drivers of growth

Annual change, % /

Ppt contribution to GDP1


17 November 2017

Private consumption expanded by 7.2%, lifted mainly by better

labour market conditions…

7

Private consumption growth

improved…

Annual change, %

Real Private Consumption Growth

7.1 7.2

2

4

6

8

10

1Q

-15

3Q

-15

1Q

-16

3Q

-16

1Q

-17

3Q

-17

76


6

7.3 7.3

3

4

5

6

7

8

1Q

-15

3Q

-15

1Q

-16

3Q

-16

1Q

-17

3Q

-17

… and sustained private

sector wage growth

Annual change, %

Private Sector Wage Growth*

14.4

14.5

1Q

-15

3Q

-15

1Q

-16

3Q

-16

1Q

-17

3Q

-17

Million Persons

Employment

…supported by improving

employment conditions…

*Private sector wages is derived from the salaries and wages data published in the Monthly Manufacturing Statistics and Quarterly Services Statistics by the

Department of Statistics, Malaysia. It covers 62% of total employment.


17 November 2017

…although consumer sentiments have yet to recover to the

optimism threshold

Consumer sentiments remain below the

optimism threshold

Points

Multiple factors are weighing on sentiments…

MIER Consumer Sentiments Index

Source: Malaysian Institute of Economic Research, MIER

100.1

77.1

40

60

80

100

120

1Q

-14

2Q

-14

3Q

-14

4Q

-14

1Q

-15

2Q

-15

3Q

-15

4Q

-15

1Q

-16

2Q

-16

3Q

-16

4Q

-16

1Q

-17

2Q

-17

3Q

-17

Optimism threshold: 100 points

13 quarters

1 Sustained cost of living pressures

2Concerns over employment

opportunities

3 Debt obligations

… affecting vulnerable households the most

7


17 November 2017

+ 311

+ 840

+ 1,783

+ 257

+ 475

+ 943

B40 M40 T20

Income Expenditure

While income growth has increased, wage levels remain low amid

higher expenditure

Larger increase in expenditure relative to

rise in income for B40 households


Note:

1/ Elementary occupations workers perform single and routine tasks (e.g. package deliverers)

2/ Professionals include medical doctors, engineers, dentists, architects, musicians


Difference between 2014 and 2016 (RM/ month) (RM/ Month)

Wage increases for low- to mid-skilled workers

are relatively low

HH Mean Income and Mean Expenditure Median Monthly Wages for Selected Occupations

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Elementary 1/ Service& sales

Machineoperators &assemblers

Clericalsupport

Professionals 2/

2015 2016

Net

+RM 54/

month

Net

+RM 365/

month

Net

+RM 840/

month

High- skilledMid- skilledLow- skilled

+100 +25

+150

75%

of private consumption

+100

+85

10%

growth2.1% 6.1% 5.3% 3.5%

8


17 November 2017

114.1

103.1

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1Q

-15

3Q

-15

1Q

-16

3Q

-16

1Q

-17

3Q

-17

Private investment grew by 7.9%, supported by positive business

sentiments and higher capacity utilisation

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia, MIER

Annual change, %

MIER Business Conditions Index MIER Capacity Utilisation Rate

Points %

Private investment

continued to expandPositive business sentiments Higher capacity utilisation

Real Private Investment Growth

7.9

0

4

8

12

16

1Q

-15

3Q

-15

1Q

-16

3Q

-16

1Q

-17

3Q

-17

82.8

83.6

72

76

80

84

88

1Q

-15

3Q

-15

1Q

-16

3Q

-16

1Q

-17

3Q

-17

Average (‘11-’16): 79.2%

7.4

9

Optimism threshold:

100 points


17 November 2017

Strong trade performance in 3Q 2017

External Trade

(Annual change, %)

% share

(2016)

2016 2017

Year 1Q 2Q 3Q

Gross Exports 100 1.2 21.4 20.5 22.1

Manufacturing 82 3.3 19.5 18.7 23.7

E&E 37 3.6 18.4 22.6 21.7

Non-E&E 45 3.0 20.3 15.8 25.4

Commodities 17 -8.1 27.7 28.2 12.5

Gross imports 100 1.9 27.7 19.0 19.8

Intermediate 57 -0.1 27.8 23.9 20.9

Capital 14 4.9 42.1 7.0 0.0

Consumption 10 7.3 4.0 1.5 14.9

Trade balance

(RM bil)- 88.1 18.9 24.1 26.7


• Exports remained robust

– Broad-based expansion, particularly

manufactured exports

– Higher demand from key trading

partners

• Robust intermediate and consumption

imports

– Strong manufacturing activity

– Continued strength in domestic

consumption

• Trade balance widened to RM26.7 billion

10


17 November 2017

Agri2%

Mining7%

Mfg41%

Finance21%

Info & comm8%

Distributive Trade

7%

Real Estate6%

Services49%

28.5

38.2

35.6

39.4

47.2

34.236.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1Q-3Q2016

1Q-3Q2017

Agriculture MiningManufacturing ConstructionFinancial Services Non-financial Services

Current trade strength owes much to the stable base of foreign direct

investment (FDI)

FDI inflows for 1Q-3Q 2017 set to match

previous year’s record high

Note: Figures may not add up due to netting off and rounding

Sources: Department of Statistics Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia

RM billion

FDI is broad-based across countries and sectors

Foreign Direct Investment in Malaysia

FDI Stock by Economic Sectors, 3Q 2017: RM559 billion

FDI Stock: Largest Contributors, 3Q 2017: RM559 billion

Singapore21%

Japan12%

HK8%

Netherlands7%

US7%

Switzerland5%

Germany4%

UK4%

Norway4%

PR China3%

Korea2%

UAE2%

Others21%

Export-

oriented

Domestic-

oriented

11

Construction

1%

Other Services,

7%


17 November 2017

0

20

40

60

2005

2014

2005

2014

2005

2014

A holistic review of the investment incentives framework is timely for a

future-ready Malaysia

FDI was a game-changer

for Malaysia…

…but high foreign content

constrains net benefits to

domestic supply chain…

…while rapid shifts in global

environment necessitates

dynamic incentives

Investment incentives need to be nimble, relevant and tied to outcome-based indicators

Manufactured Exports & FDI

20.4

59.5

74.6

54.6

4.6

10.5

4.55.7

0

5

10

15

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980's 1990's 2000's 2010's-now

Mfg Exports (% of GDP, LHS)

Total FDI (% of GDP, RHS)

Foreign Content in Gross Exports

Tech disruption

Rapid

urbanisation

Innovation

Economic

complexity

Skilled jobs

Changing investor

preferences

Climate change

Global Trends in the Next Decade

Note: Regional average includes Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia, OECD

Regional average: 31%

Malaysia Philippines PR China

% share of

gross exports

12

% of GDP % of GDP


17 November 2017

3.4

1.91.3

1.7

4.34.0

3.8

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

2016 2017

Others (29.5%)

Alcoholic beverages & tobacco (2.9%)

Transport (13.6%)

Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels (23.8%)

Food & non-alcoholic beverages (30.2%)

Headline inflation (Annual change, %)

Headline inflation declined to 3.8% in 3Q 2017

Inflation averaged lower due to lower transport

inflation

Headline Inflation

Note: RON95 petrol price is affected by movements in global oil prices and exchange rate

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia, Bloomberg, and Bank Negara Malaysia

Percentage point contribution

In the near term, inflation could remain elevated

amid rising global oil prices

6

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

2.40

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q Oct 1-16Nov

2016 2017

Global crude oil price

RON95 petrol price (RHS)

USD/barrel RM/litre

Average Global Crude Oil Price and RON95 Petrol Price

13


17 November 2017

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 Nov-17

%

Overnight Policy Rate• The MPC will continue to assess the

balance of risks surrounding the outlook

for domestic growth and inflation

‒ More entrenched growth, lifted by

stronger spillovers from the external

sector

‒ Headline inflation is projected to

moderate in 2018, but dependent on

future global oil prices which are highly

uncertain

• Favourable economic prospects accord

greater flexibility to review the degree of

monetary accommodation

Monetary policy will ensure the sustainability of growth prospects

3.00

14


17 November 2017

-0.02

0.2

-0.3

-2.1

0.04

1.9

1.5

3.1

1.4

-1.0

-1.0

-0.8

-0.2

-0.01

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.8

-5 0 5

IDR

INR

PHP

KRW

TWD

CNY

SGD

MYR

THB

3Q-17 2Q-17 % change

Ringgit continued to appreciate against the US dollar and most

regional currencies in the third quarter, but risks persist going forward

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia

Performance of Selected Currencies against the US dollar

The ringgit has been supported by positive

domestic developments; risks, however, persist

The ringgit was one of the best performers in

the region for two consecutive quarters

15

4.15

4.20

4.25

4.30

4.35

4.40

4.45

4.50

4.55

Jan-1

7

Feb

-17

Ma

r-1

7

Apr-

17

Ma

y-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Au

g-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7


MYR/USD

Performance of Ringgit against the US dollar

MYR appreciation

● Strong export performance

● FMC announcement

● Stronger-than-expected 1Q

and 2Q GDP

14 Dec: ECB

meeting

Other lingering

risks

Geopolitical

tensions

between the

US and North

Korea

Economic

outlook of

major

economies

12-13 Dec: FOMC

meeting


17 November 2017

FMC measures have brought in better liquidity in the onshore ringgit foreign exchange market

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia, Bloomberg

Note: Volatility refers to the difference between USD/MYR interbank intraday highest and lowest rate.

Offshore rate refers to the NDF 1-month rate while onshore rate refers to the spot rate.

4.5

6.2 6.1

7.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

Nov-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17

228

6279

113

0

50

100

150

200

250


42

2327

32

0

10

20

30

40

50


360

145124

69

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


Average Volatility of USD/MYR

Average USD/MYR Bid-Ask Spread

Average daily turnover of MYR pairsUSD bn Points

Points

Points

Greater FX intermediation by the

market

More stable ringgit reduces business

uncertainty

Impact of offshore rates to onshore

has further reduced

FX transaction cost has reduced

for market participants

Greater balance of foreign currency

demand and supply

Further reduction in credit spread

lowered cost of borrowing

USD bn Basis

pointsAverage Daily 5-year CDS spreadNet Foreign Exchange Conversion

from Exports (Cumulative)

-0.5 1.4

3.6

7.3

-0.5

1.5

3.5

5.5

7.5

Jan - Nov-16

Dec-16 -Mar-17

Dec-16 -Jun-17

Dec-16 -Sep-17

151

108

88

68

50

70

90

110

130

150

170


Average Daily USD/MYR

Offshore-Onshore Gap

16


17 November 2017129 13

39.6%

32.9%

18.7%

5.6%2.3%

0.4% 0.5%0

20

40

60

80

Asse

tM

ana

ge

me

nt

Ce

ntr

al B

anks/

Go

vern

me

nts

Pe

nsio

nF

unds

Ba

nks

Insura

nce

Com

panie

s

No

min

ees/

Cu

sto

dia

ns

Oth

ers

RM billion

29.7%

26.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17

% NR Holding

RM billionGovt Bond (LHS)

% NR of Govt (RHS)

Notes:

1/ Malaysian Government Bonds includes Malaysian Government Securities (MGS), Malaysian Government Investment Issues (MGII), and Sukuk Perumahan

Kerajaan (SPK).

2/ ‘Others’ include individuals, non-financial corporations and unidentified sectors


Distribution of Non-resident Holdings of

Government Bonds as at end-Sep’17

Non-resident Holdings of

Malaysian Government Bonds

Non-resident holdings of Malaysian government bonds were slightly

higher as at end-Sep 2017 in line with ringgit performance

Majority of non-residents holdings are by

asset managers and Central Bank/Government

Higher non-resident holdings of

Malaysian Government bonds

17


17 November 2017

Malaysia’s external debt remains manageable

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia

60.0%*

42.9%

22.1%

1998 3Q-17

Ringgit-denominated external debt

Foreign currency-denominated debt

*Based on previous definition of external debt

Foreign currency-denominated

debt remains low relative to

Asian Financial Crisis

Breakdown by Currency

(% of GDP)

Foreign currency-denominated

debt largely hedged and backed

by external assets

Breakdown by instruments

(% of total share)

Total:

65.0%

20

Interbank borrowings

28.5%Intercompany

loans17.5%

Bonds and notes28.0%

Loans6.4%

Others*2.3% Trade

credits10.3%

*Includes SDR allocations and miscellaneous, such as

insurance claims yet to be disbursed and interest

payables on bonds and notes

Subjected to prudent

liquidity management

practices and flexible terms

More than half of foreign-

currency denominated debt are

subjected to either prudential

safeguards or flexible terms

• Interbank borrowing and

non-resident deposits Prudent liquidity management

including limits on funding and

maturity mismatches

• Intercompany loansFlexible/concessionary terms

• Trade credits

Backed by export earnings

18

NR deposits

7.0%


17 November 2017

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1Q

-97

3Q

-97

1Q

-98

3Q

-98

1Q

-99

3Q

-99

1Q

-00

3Q

-00

1Q

-01

3Q

-01

1Q

-02

3Q

-02

1Q

-03

3Q

-03

1Q

-04

3Q

-04

1Q

-05

3Q

-05

1Q

-06

3Q

-06

1Q

-07

3Q

-07

1Q

-08

3Q

-08

1Q

-09

3Q

-09

1Q

-10

3Q

-10

1Q

-11

3Q

-11

1Q

-12

3Q

-12

1Q

-13

3Q

-13

1Q

-14

3Q

-14

1Q

-15

3Q

-15

1Q

-16

3Q

-16

1Q

-17

3Q

-17

Capital Market

FX Market

Banking System

FCI

The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) indicates improving financial

conditions since 2016

Financial Conditions Index for Malaysia

(Bars are the variance decomposition of the index by markets)

• The FCI aggregates financial variables to summarise the current state of domestic financial conditions

• The estimated FCI for Malaysia has improved since 2016, mainly reflecting the decreased volatility in the

foreign exchange and equity markets.

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia estimates

Index

-1sd

Asian

Financial

Crisis

(6 Quarters)

Spillover from

Global

Financial Crisis

(4 quarters)

+2sd

+1sd

-2sd

Episode of exchange rate

depreciation and volatility

Indicates easing in financial

conditions

19


17 November 2017

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia, Bloomberg

0

5

10

15

20

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Jun-1

6

Sep-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Jun-1

7

Sep-1

7

Bond Money Market Equity FX FI

Stress Level, %

(Stacked; Min=0; Max=100)

Market volatility remained low amid improved

domestic sentimentsFinancial Market Stress Index (FMSI)

Notable peaks

Asian Financial Crisis : 57.4%

Global Financial Crisis : 24.3%

Oil Plunge 2015 : 24.5%

Current (30 Sept.) : 3.0%

• Average volatility declined for 10-year

Malaysia Government Securities (MGS)

yields and the equity market.

• Low volatility partly attributed to

improved domestic sentiments amid

better-than-expected GDP growth in 2Q

2017

• Moving forward, investor sentiment will

be influenced primarily by external

developments.

Domestic financial markets remained orderly

20


17 November 2017


Banking sector 1Q 2017 2Q 2017 3Q 2017

Common equity tier 1 capital ratio (%) 13.1 12.9 13.2

Tier 1 capital ratio (%) 13.9 13.8 14.1

Total capital ratio (%) 17.0 17.0 17.1

Capital buffer (RM bil) 132.6 133.2 135.4

Net impaired loans ratio (%) 1.2 1.2 1.2

ROE (annualised) 11.8 12.7 12.8

Insurance/Takaful sector 1Q 2017 2Q 2017 3Q 2017

Capital adequacy ratio (%) - Insurance 246.1 238.5 234.5

Capital adequacy ratio (%) - Takaful 204.8 211.4 204.4

Capital buffer (RM bil) 38.2 37.1 35.4

Profitability (RM bil) 6.6 5.2 4.2

Excess income over outgo (RM bil) 6.1 4.4 3.5

Operating profit (RM bil) 0.5 0.8 0.7

Claims Ratio (%) 62.9 55.3 61.2

Domestic financial stability remains intact

• Financial institutions

capitalisation maintained at

strong levels

• Sufficient high quality capital

to manage adverse

developments

21


17 November 2017

Financing to the private sector moderated since the previous quarter

While growth of corporate bonds was

sustained, net financing growth moderated,

driven by slower loan growth…

*Net financing comprises outstanding banking system and DFIs loans, and

outstanding corporate bonds

… contributed primarily by lower loan growth

to businesses other than SMEs

Contribution to Net Financing Growth* Outstanding Banking System and DFI Loan Growth by

Borrowers

6.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1Q

15

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

15

1Q

16

2Q

16

3Q

16

4Q

16

1Q

17

2Q

17

3Q

17

Corporate Bonds

Banking System and DFI Loans

Total Net Financing

ppt, %

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia Source: Bank Negara Malaysia

Households, 4.9

Businesses, 5.4

Non-SMEs, 4.0

SMEs, 7.0

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1Q

15

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

15

1Q

16

2Q

16

3Q

16

4Q

16

1Q

17

2Q

17

3Q

17

Households Businesses

Non-SMEs SMEsyoy, %

22


17 November 2017


88.7

83.1

73.1

2.50

3.43

2

3

4

5

6

7

50

60

70

80

90

100

2Q

-15

3Q

-15

4Q

-15

1Q

-16

2Q

-16

3Q

-16

4Q

-16

1Q

-17

2Q

-17

3Q

-17

%%

Loan-to-deposit ratio

Loan-to-fund ratio

Loan-to-fund & equity ratio

Average cost of deposit (RHS)

KLIBOR (RHS)

136

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

3Q

-15

4Q

-15

1Q

-16

2Q

-16

3Q

-16

4Q

-16

1Q

-17

2Q

-17

3Q

-17

Other stock of HQLA

Ringgit surplus liquidity placed with BNM (incl. SRR)

Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR, RHS)

LCR min. requirement (RHS)

LCR min. requirement

RM billion Ratio, %

LCR well above the transitional minimum

requirement

Liquidity coverage ratio and liquid assets

Banks’ funding structure remained stable

Funding structure and cost of funds

Sufficient liquidity in the banking system to support intermediation

23


17 November 2017


4.9

7.9

0

3

6

9

12

15

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

3Q

-17

Financial assets

Debt

Debt growth (RHS)

Financial assets growth (RHS)

RM billion Annual growth (%)

Fin. assets:

RM2.4 trillion

Debt:

RM1.1 trillion

84.6

177.7

123.6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

-50

0

50

100

150

200

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

3Q

-17

Others (RHS)

Credit Cards (RHS)

Personal Financing (RHS)

Passenger Cars (RHS)

Residential Properties (RHS)

Ratio

%Outstanding HH Debt

RM trillion

1.4

1.6

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Household: Delinquency ratio

Household: Impairment ratio

Ratio

%

3Q-17

Financial assets-to-GDP

ratio

Liquid financial assets-to-GDP

ratio

Debt-to-GDP ratio

Household debt growth

continued to moderate

Household Debts and Financial

Assets

Household financial assets

sustained at 2.1x of debt

Household Sector: Key Ratios Gross Impaired and Delinquent Loans

Sound asset quality of

household loans

24

Sustained debt servicing capacity of households


17 November 2017

8.8

5

7

9

11

13

15

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

2014 2015 2016 2017

Outstanding financing

Annual growth (RHS)

2007-2015 average (RHS)

2010 - 2015 average (RHS)

RM (billion)Annual

growth (%)

Housing loans continued to grow

at a sustained pace


’07-’15 avg: 11.5%

’10 -’15 avg: 12.9%

53.3

26.6

15.4

4.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

2013 2014 2015 2016 Sep-17

> RM1m

RM500k - RM1m

< RM500k

<RM250k (mainly first-time buyers)

%

About 71% of outstanding

loans are to first-time house

buyers priced <RM500K

• Access to financing for

first-time home buyers

maintained.

• Housing loan approval rate

stood above 70%, while

rejection rate remained

below 4-year average at

23.3.%

• Financing for speculative

house purchases remained

muted

Borrowers continued to have access to home financing, especially

first-time home buyers

25


17 November 2017

48.6

8.3

1.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1Q

-14

2Q

-14

3Q

-14

4Q

-14

1Q

-15

2Q

-15

3Q

-15

4Q

-15

1Q

-16

2Q

-16

3Q

-16

4Q

-16

1Q

-17

2Q

-17

Debt-to-equity ratio

Interest coverage ratio (RHS)

Cash-to-short-term debt (RHS)

% times

Overall debt servicing

capacity sustainedLeverage, debt servicing capacity

and liquidity indicators


2.7

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

1Q

-14

2Q

-14

3Q

-14

4Q

-14

1Q

-15

2Q

-15

3Q

-15

4Q

-15

1Q

-16

2Q

-16

3Q

-16

4Q

-16

1Q

-17

2Q

-17

3Q

-17

Business: Impaired loans ratio

SMEs: Impaired loans ratio

%

Impairments remained low,

despite upticks in some sectorsGross impaired loans

0

500

1,000

1,500

19

98

20

08

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

3Q

-17

External Debt

Domestic Corporate Bonds/Sukuk

Domestic Loans

RM billionAnnual growth : 7%

Continued access to financing

for businesses, including SME

Domestic and external debt

Businesses, including SMEs continued to have access to financing

26

45%

29%

26%

2.6


17 November 2017

Financial institutions remain the largest source of financing for SMEs

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia, SME Corp, Securities Commission

Services63%

Manufacturing 15%

Construction13%

Agriculture6%

Others3%

22 20

22 21

13 13

43 46

0

20

40

60

80

100

Applications Approvals

0-3 years 4-7 years

8-10 years >10 years

97% of financing to SMEs

are from financial

institutions (BIs and DFIs)

FIs extend financing to

SMEs across the spectrum

One in 5 SMEs financing

approvals are to start-ups

Financing Outstanding to SMEs FIs Financing to SME by Sectors Share of SME Applications and

Approvals

Share (%)

27

DFIs

14.7

Government Funds and Schemes a

5.9

Venture Capital b

2.9

Factoring and Leasing b

0.8

BIs

295.9

a SME Annual Report 2015/16

b As at end-2016

RM bil


17 November 2017

Property imbalances pose significant risks to the overall economy

in the event of a shock

With linkages to over 120 industries, vulnerabilities in the property market pose risks to the wider economy, as

observed during the Asian Financial Crisis

Record-high unsold residential

units, mainly above RM250k

Note: Total unsold includes overhang properties and unsold under construction. Estimates include SOHO and serviced apartments.

Source: NAPIC, DOSM, Jones Lang Wootton and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates

1Q 2012 1Q 2017

Above RM250k

Below RM250k

36%

share

83%

share

54,244 units

130,690 units

24%

2021f:32%

18%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1996 2003 2010 1Q2017

Klang Valley

Malaysia

Regional Average 1Q 2017:

6.6%

%

Penang

Johor

Incoming Supply

(2017 Onwards)

15.8

msf

1.5x

existing

supply

0.4x

existing

supply

Klang

Valley

0.7x

existing

supply

44.0

msf

5.6

msf

High office vacancy rates,

particularly in Klang Valley140 new malls to enter the market in

key states by 2021

Office Vacancy RatesUnsold Residential Units

28

64%

share 17%

share


17 November 2017

Given the continued strong growth performance in the third quarter, the Malaysian

economy is on track to register stronger growth of 5.2 – 5.7% in 2017

Growth prospects continue to be supported by domestic demand and continued

strength in exports

− Continued wage and employment growth

− New and on-going implementation of infrastructure projects

− Improvement in global growth, especially among Malaysia’s key trading partners

Strong and resilient macroeconomic fundamentals accord Malaysia the ability to

manage current challenges and pursue structural reforms

Malaysian economy to register higher growth in 2017

2129


17 November 2017

Highlights of the

Bank’s Policy Initiatives on Corporate

Governance of Financial Institutions

30


17 November 2017

Nov 1985 Nov 1994 June 2013 Aug 2016

Guidelines on

responsibilities

of Directors and

Appointment of

Chief Executives

Revision of 1985

guidelines:

• At least 2

independent

directors on

board

• Number of

executive

directors

restricted to 3

• Strengthened

expectations for group

wide governance

• Independent directors:

tenure should not exceed

9 years

• Number of executive

directors restricted to 1

• Independent directors

must form board majority

Apr 2011

FIDE programme

(for all directors

(compulsory)

• Codification of functions

and duties of board in FSA

2013 and IFSA 2013

• Strengthened fit and

proper criteria for directors

• Number of executive

directors restricted to 2

• Independent directors

must form at least 1/3 of

board members

Stronger board independence

Expanded scope of board

deliberation

1

Improvement in competency,

composition and commitment

of Board members

3

2

Key observations …

May 2003

Requirement to

establish board sub-

committees for

nomination,

remuneration and risk

management matters

Mar 2005

• Separation of

roles between

Chairman and

CEO

• Chairman of

the board

must be non-

executive

Evolution of corporate governance standards has elevated the quality of board oversight in financial institutions

31


17 November 201777

Q & A

32


17 November 2017

The Malaysian economy recorded a higher growth of 6.2% in the third quarter of 2017

2133

Real GDP

(Annual change, %)

Share, %

(2016)

2016 2017

Year 1Q 2Q 3Q

Domestic demand

(excluding stocks)91.6 4.3 7.7 5.7 6.6

Private Sector 70.1 5.6 8.2 7.2 7.3

Consumption 53.2 6.0 6.6 7.1 7.2

Investment 16.9 4.3 12.9 7.4 7.9

Public Sector 21.5 0.4 5.8 0.2 4.1

Consumption 13.1 0.9 7.5 3.3 4.2

Investment 8.5 -0.5 3.2 -5.0 4.1

Net exports of

goods

and services

8.4 1.5 -14.5 1.4 1.7

Exports 70.4 1.1 9.8 9.6 11.8

Imports 62.1 1.1 12.9 10.7 13.4

Change in stocks

(RM billion)0.0 0.3 1.8 -0.4 -2.0

GDP (y-o-y) 1001 4.2 5.6 5.8 6.2

GDP (q-o-q growth,

seasonally

adjusted)

- - 1.8 1.3 1.8

Real GDP

(Annual change, %)

Share, %

(2016)

2016 2017

Year 1Q 2Q 3Q

Services 54.3 5.6 5.8 6.3 6.6

Manufacturing 23.0 4.4 5.6 6.0 7.0

Mining and

Quarrying8.8 2.2 1.6 0.2 3.1

Agriculture 8.1 -5.1 8.3 5.9 4.1

Construction 4.5 7.4 6.5 8.3 6.1

GDP (y-o-y) 1002 4.2 5.6 5.8 6.2

Note: 2 Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties

component


Add. Info

1

Note: 1 Numbers do not add up due to rounding


Documents

Prestasi Ekonomi Suku Ketiga Tahun 2017 - Central Bank of ... · 3Q 2017 BNM Quarterly Bulletin 17 November 2017 Prestasi Ekonomi Suku Ketiga Tahun 2017 Gabenor Bank Negara Malaysia