Presented byPresented by:: Prof. G.V. Gruza,Prof. G.V. Gruza,

Institute of Global Climate and Ecology Institute of Global Climate and Ecology

(IGCE, Roshydromet and RAS)(IGCE, Roshydromet and RAS)

Institute of Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE), RussiaInstitute of Global Climate and Ecology (IGCE), Russia

In the Russian FederationRussian Federation climatic researches are conducted within:

• RoshydrometRoshydromet (Federal Hydrometereology and Environmental Monitoring Service),

• RASRAS (the Russian Academy of Sciences),

• some UniversitiesUniversities and and InstitutesInstitutes

Climate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE, Moscow, RussiaClimate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE, Moscow, Russia

• climate system monitoring and assessment of climate variability for climate system monitoring and assessment of climate variability for the major regions of Russia and Globe;the major regions of Russia and Globe;

• assessment of global changes in a chemical compound of the assessment of global changes in a chemical compound of the atmosphere, including concentration of greenhouse gases and atmosphere, including concentration of greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone;stratospheric ozone;

• assessment of climate changes using physical and mathematical assessment of climate changes using physical and mathematical modeling;modeling;

• ecological, social and economic impacts of climate changesecological, social and economic impacts of climate changes

• applied climatologyapplied climatology

Climate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE, Moscow, RussiaClimate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE, Moscow, Russia

The ProgramThe Program «Changes in Environment «Changes in Environment and Climate: natural catastrophy» and Climate: natural catastrophy»

combines the climate change researches within subprogramcombines the climate change researches within subprogram

«Climate Changes: influence of «Climate Changes: influence of extraterrestrial and terrestrial factors» extraterrestrial and terrestrial factors»

such as:

• Studies of influence of terrestrial and extraterrestrial factors on Studies of influence of terrestrial and extraterrestrial factors on changes in a chemical compound and structure of the upper, changes in a chemical compound and structure of the upper, middle and lower atmospheremiddle and lower atmosphere

• The diagnosis of regional catastrophic climate changes including The diagnosis of regional catastrophic climate changes including detection natural and anthropogenic factorsdetection natural and anthropogenic factors

• Mathematical modeling of the possible catastrophic climate Mathematical modeling of the possible catastrophic climate changeschanges

• Global variations of the geomagnetic fields and lunar tides and Global variations of the geomagnetic fields and lunar tides and their relationships with climate changestheir relationships with climate changes

• Investigation of the dangerous hydrometeorological eventsInvestigation of the dangerous hydrometeorological events

Climate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE, Moscow, RussiaClimate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE, Moscow, Russia

It would be useful to strengthen nationalnational research programs on some studiesresearch programs on some studies and to submit their results intointo Fourth NationalFourth National Communications Communications asas

• Analysis and improvement of data homogeneity for the period Analysis and improvement of data homogeneity for the period of instrumental observations. In particular, for Russia, as well as for of instrumental observations. In particular, for Russia, as well as for other countries with cold winters and significant fraction of frozen other countries with cold winters and significant fraction of frozen precipitation, improvement of homogeneity of atmospheric precipitation, improvement of homogeneity of atmospheric precipitation data is actual.precipitation data is actual.

• For all countries the problem of climate changes detection in For all countries the problem of climate changes detection in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme processes and events frequency, intensity and duration of extreme processes and events is actual, and is actual, and

• An assessment of abilities of the modern climatic models to An assessment of abilities of the modern climatic models to reproduce the extremes.reproduce the extremes.

such as

Climate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE, Moscow, RussiaClimate Monitoring and Forecast Dept., IGCE, Moscow, Russia

Has the observed climate

become more variable and/or extreme?

A small change in average temperature can cause a large change in the frequency of temperature extremes

Likewise, a change in variability can cause a change in the frequency of extremes

However, the largest change in temperature extremes can occur when both average and variance change

• To estimate, whether slow changes in characteristics of variability and extremity exist, we should eliminate slow variations of means in observation time series.

• As a model of slow variations of means, i.e., trends, we attempt the following time series of “dynamic normals”: – low-pass filtered series Rm;– linear trend (regression on the time) Ry;– regression on the carbon dioxide concentration Rc;– regression on the global annual mean temperature Rg.

• For the estimation of low-frequency variability and existence of monotonic trends of variability we use time series of absolute values of deviations from “dynamic norms” or from regressions mentioned above.

Spectralanalysis: NH-T

Dm

Am

T r e n d s in absolute values of deviations

of the mean surface temperature from

their regression on the averaged CO2-concentration

|T-regr(CO2)|, Year (Jan.-Dec.), 1951-1998

|T-regr(CO2)|, Cold (Oct.-Mar.), 1951-1998

|T-regr(CO2)|, Warm (Apr.-Sep.), 1951-1998

systematic observations

RosHydromet is responsible for systematic observations on climate. 

Following the UNFCCC guidelines, the NC3 includes an annex with information on the Global Climate ObservingSystem (GCOS). 

Terrestrial observationsare conducted in conjunction with specific projects only, as there is not apermanent system required by the GCOS.

We hope to include separate report on our GCOS activity

into THE FOURTH NATIONAL COMMUNICATION

Observational Network Over Russia (Climate Monitoring in IGCE)

3 0 6 0 9 0 1 2 0 1 5 0 1 8 0

40

50

60

70

80

RUSSIARUSSIA

S455-monthlyS223-daily

Number of meteorological stations, presented in IGCE-climatic database for the period from 1886 to 2000

Globe (max=1383)f.USSR (max=455)

What is planned to do:

1. To improve the basic climatic datasets:

* To extend a set of hydrometeorological variables

* To increase a network density up to 600 stations (from 200) for air temperature and up 1000 stations with precipitation data

* To improve data homogeneity and quality.

* To provide a time resolution till "daily" one.

2. To investigate and monitor the regional climates changes and variability:

* To create sets of regional indicators (indices) to be used in regular regional climate monitoring of a climate state, climate variability and extremity.

* To develop the methods for a joint analysis of the observed and modeled data to realize a model validation and model quality assessment

* To attribute the possible natural and anthropogenic reasons responsible for the climate changes observed.