Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification

Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification

ByGreg Machos

Presented For: Dr. Stephan Nelson and Members of Atmospheric Division of the National Science Foundation

Hurricane Modification 2 04/22/23

Welcome….

To the entire staff of the Atmospheric Division of the National Science Foundation.A special welcome to the following people

Dr. Stephan Nelson, Director for NSF’s Atmospheric Division.Richard Behnke, Head of NSF’s Upper Atmospheric Division.Robert Robinson, Program Manager, Upper Atmospheric FacilitiesMembers of the U.S. Weather Research Program.Members of the National Space Weather Research Program.


AgendaIntroductionProblems Hurricanes Present To Today’s World

Hurricane Mitch in Central AmericaEarly Attempts to Control HurricanesResearch Being Done Today

Federal Government ProjectsGovernment Research Into Hurricane IntensityShearing A Hurricane Apart

Private Industry ProjectsDyn-O-Mat’s Hurricane Powder, Dyn-O-Gel

Plan For Research ExperimentEstimated Cost For Research ExperimentQuestions

Introduction



Introduction

Hurricane forecasters and researchers indicate that the Atlantic Basin is now entering a period of increased hurricane activity (See Figure 1).More intense hurricanes are expected to make landfall more frequently along the United States coastline over the next forty years.While Hurricane Forecasting has improved (See Figure 2), coastal populations continue to rise as shown in Figure 3.Research into other solutions such as hurricane modification is needed so that there are alternatives in case forecasting doesn’t improve.


Figure 1

Tropical Activity in the Atlantic (1991-2001)

0

5

10

15

20

1991 1997 1999 2001

Tropical StormsHurricanes

Introduction


Figure 2

Improvement In Forecasting Errors. Source: NOAA

Introduction


Figure 3

Increase In Coastal Populations. Source: U.S. Census

Introduction







Problems Hurricanes Present To Today’s World



Problems HurricanesPresent To Today’s

WorldHurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones are known throughout the world to be very vast and vicious storms that can affect many people.Hurricanes present a variety of problems such as wind, rain, storm surge, high waves, and even tornadoes.The problem that faces today’s world with hurricanes is not only accurately forecasting where the storm will go, but also how intense it will get.Another problem is while forecasting hurricanes has gradually improved, coastal populations are growing at a very rapid rate.Insurance costs for coastal property has also increased steadily over the past several decades.

Example--Category Four Hurricane Striking Asbury Park--$52 billion dollars.


Devastation of Hurricane

Mitch in Central America

Hurricane Mitch, shown in Figure 4, was a Category Five Hurricane that devastated Honduras and Nicaragua in October, 1998. Sustained winds with Mitch approached 190 mph.The brunt of the damage, as seen in Figure 5, was from the three to six feet of rain that fell within a 48 hour period as the storm stalled off the coast.The deluge of rain was due to the phenomenon of orographic lifting, which is the lifting of moist air over mountainous terrain as in Figure 6.In the case of Mitch, the intense amount of moist air was lifted over rugged terrain in both Honduras and Nicaragua.As the very moist air was lifted, it was cooled and evaporated, which resulted in the heavy rains.


Figure 4

Hurricane Mitch Off Honduran Coast in October, 1998. Source: NOAA

Hurricane Mitch

Honduras

Nicaragua

Belize




Figure 5

Some of the Devastation from Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Source: Honduras National Web Site

Where road buckles from heavy rains

Bottom half of the road

Top half of the road




Figure 6

The Process of Orographic Lifting. Source: USA Today




Other Recent Hurricane Disasters

Besides Hurricane Mitch in 1998, there have been many other disasters from hurricanes both nationally and internationally.September, 1999--Hurricane Floyd left 57 people dead and caused approximately 6 billion dollars in damage as a result of 12 to 20 inches of rain from North Carolina to New England.December, 1999--Heavy rains in Northeastern Venezuela caused rivers to overflow their banks and surge into local villages leaving 20,000 dead.February, 2000--Heavy rains from tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean let thousands dead in Mozambique in Southeastern Africa (See Figure 7).June, 2001--Tropical Storm Allison becomes the costliest tropical storm on record as it caused about 4 billion dollars in damage in Houston, Texas.


Figure 7

Estimated Number of Deaths In Recent Catastrophes

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Mitch Venezuela Mozambique

Est. Deaths

Other Recent Hurricane Disasters







Early Attempts to Control Hurricanes



Past Attempts ToControl Hurricanes

The period of the 1940s and 1950s were a very hectic and furious one for hurricanes, particularly in 1954 and 1955.Over the two year period of 1954-55, there were several Category Four Hurricanes to hit the East Coast of the United States: Connie and Hazel in October, 1954 and Diane in August, 1955.Of the three storms Diane was the most devastating as it left 184 dead, and caused 5 billion dollars in damage.In today’s dollars, Diane would have caused about 80 billion dollars in damage.During this period, researchers began to study ways to somehow weaken hurricanes through modification.These attempts consisted of Projects such as Project Cirrus in 1947 and Project Stormfury in 1962.


Past Attempts ToControl Hurricanes

Project Stormfury was the more successful of the two projects since it benefited from improved technology and cloud seeding methods.Project’s first test case was with Hurricane Esther in 1961before it was formally called Stormfury. Several waves of Silver Iodide crystals were released into Esther, and reduced the storm’s winds by ten percent.However, over the next eight years, researchers working on the Project were only able to fly into two storms.The two test cases were Hurricane Beulah in 1963 and Hurricane Debby in 1969.The most successful of the two was the case of Hurricane Debby, where the storm’s winds were reduced by 31 percent as shown in Figure 8.Project Stormfury ultimately failed and was halted in 1980.


Project StormfuryFigure 8

Wind Reduction in Hurricane Debby AfterSeeding on August 19-20, 1969

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

8/19/69 8/20/69

BeforeAfter







Research Being Done Today



Research CurrentlyBeing Done

There are several different approaches being taken by both the federal government and private industry in hurricane research.In the summer of 2001, several government agencies including NOAA and NASA have begun researching why hurricanes intensify.According to a recent journal by the American Meteorlogical Society, work is also being conducted on how wind shear along the coast affects a hurricane during landfall.Private industry is also doing work in this area. A company called Dyn-O-Mat in South Florida has developed a powder that will weaken a hurricane by absorbing its moisture.







Federal Government Projects




During the 2001 Hurricane Season, researchers at NOAA, NASA, and other government agencies began researching hurricane intensity (Figure 9).Forecasters are trying to understand why hurricanes can weaken or strengthen suddenly.Another problem in hurricane forecasting is being able to accurately predict how strong a hurricane will be.That is because there are many variables that impact on a hurricane’s intensity.Simultaneously, the National Hurricane Center is testing a five day hurricane forecast for the first time.Other researchers are studying wind shear’s effects on landfalling hurricanes.



NOAA Gulfstream IV Taking Part in Hurricane Intensity Research

Figure 9







Private Industry Projects



Private Industry Projects

There have been a number of ideas set forth by the private sector on hurricane modification over the years.Many of these ideas have been quite advantageous at best.However, a company called Dyn-O-Mat in South Florida has put forth a serious effort to develop something useful.Their product, a powdery substance originally called Dyn-O-Gel, absorbs large amounts of moisture.The people at Dyn-O-Mat believe that this substance can be effective in weakening hurricanes.First test case was conducted on a storm cloud in July, 2001 and was successful.Now, company wants to get government funding to test Dyn-O-Storm on a depression.







Plan For Research Experiment



Plan For Research Experiment

Need to develop a process that will attack the hurricane’s vertical cloud structure.A Research Experiment would be conducted to find out what happens in the upper levels of the atmosphere.This experiment would be conducted at Florida State University since it is well known for hurricane research, and its close proximity to hurricane hunter aircraft and the NHC.Preliminary research would be done to simulate the upper air environment within and around a hurricane.First test would be conducted in a lab where an artificial storm would be created and sent into a wind tunnel.Results would be used in the real world test on a tropical wave.







Estimated Cost For Research Experiment



Project CostsMuch of the costs will handled by Florida State University and the National Science Foundation’s Geoscience DivisionBudget Is based on estimates from Dyn-O-Mat project.

FaciltiesLabs $100,000Airport $10,000Remote Location $50,000Housing (20 people) $192,000Subtotal $352,000

Materals

Aircraft $250,000Wind Tunnel $25,000Computers $100,000Pilots (6) $450,000DATA Collectors $208,000Researchers $300,000

Bottom Line Grand Total $1,685,000







Questions


We Hoped You Enjoyed This Presentation


Documents

Presentation: Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification