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MINEX
Moscow, Russia – Oct 5, 2011
Atomredmetzoloto:
Responding to New Challenges
Marina Liborakina, Deputy CEO, Strategy
Overview of Rosatom and
Atomredmetzoloto Role
Within Rosatom
3 3
Rosatom — a history of most reliable supplier
and nuclear technologies development
4
Towards the global leadership in in
technologies and markets
• Industry deregulation
• Development of reliability, safety,
environment management
• Use of nuclear technologies in
military and civil purposes
• Entering the global markets
• Formation of Russian nuclear
industry and its research &
technology base
1940 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2030
2020
• ARMZ becomes one of the world leaders in uranium production
• Uranium One is viewed as ARMZ’s global growth platform
2009-10 ARMZ: Acquisition of 19,9%, and then 51% of Uranium One
2011 ARMZ: Acquisition of 100% of Mantra Resources
1992 ARMZ: Formation of ARMZ
1959 World’s first nuclear powered icebreaker launched
2007 The Ministry transformed into ROSATOM State Corporation
Start of BN-800 project (the largest commercial reactor on fast neutrons)
2001 The first post-Soviet power unit brought into operation
1945 Russian nuclear industry creation
1954 World’s first NPP put into operation in USSR
1973 Start of EUP export sales
1973 World’s first NPP with fast neutron reactor
1964 First PWR in the world with 210 MWt capacity
1954–55 Soviet Nuclear Power Program established
1993 US and Russia signed Megatons to Megawatts Deal
1989 Start of EUP supply to the US market
• No disruption in supply since exports began in 1968
• 316 M lbs U3O8 equivalent delivered to the USA to date under HEU-LEU contract since 1995
• As of 1995 10% of US electricity is generated using fuel supplied by Rosatom
Performance data
Rosatom — a new vision of global leadership
5
Rosatom Positioning:
• Retaining foreground development of nuclear technologies
• Using synergies with nuclear electricity generation
• Development of non-electricity generating nuclear technologies
Rosatom Development:
• Increase the scale in the energy sector
• Commercialization of innovative nuclear technologies
Share
of nucle
ar
industr
y in r
evenue (%
)
Share of electricity sales (%)
Rosatom market
positions, 2010
45% of world’s uranium enrichment
services’ market
10% of world’s uranium mining
17% of world’s nuclear fuel market (supplies
NPPs in Russia and 76 other NPPs across 14
countries )
16% of NPP construction worldwide
World’s №2 in installed capacity
(23.2GW)
-50
0
50
100
150
-50 0 50 100 150
URENCO
USEC
Westinghouse
Areva
EDF
Exelon
EON
KEPCO
Alstom
Hitachi
GE
Rosatom (2010)
Rosatom (2030)
Nuclear technologies
Diversified technologies
Electricity generation
Our mission is resourcing innovation - intensive industries, including provision of raw materials for low carbon energy Our strategic goal is to maximize value to shareholders though capturing market growth potential and becoming a supplier of choice to the world's nuclear industry
ARMZ Uranium Holding role within Rosatom
Enrichment
Fuel Fabrication Conversion
Milling
Mining Recycling
MOX Fuel Fabrication
For Natural Uranium Fuels
Electricity
Power Plant
Spent Fuel Storage
Spent Fuel Disposal
HLW
Reprocessing
6
Exploration
ARMZ Uranium Holding global presence
7
Key Market Challenges
after the Fukushima
8 8
Impact of Fukushima on future demand
9
Three Mile Island, 1979
Chernobyl, 1986
Fukushima, 2011
New
NP
Ps,
GW
e
Dem
and for
ura
niu
m, M
lbs U
3O
8
NPPs newbuilds and demand for uranium
• The number of newbuilds decreased significantly in the USA and some European countries. However, the general
trend for nuclear industry development kept steady, though moderate, and supported demand growth for uranium
(one additional GWe ≈ 65-70 additional lbs U3O8 annually)
The impact of
previous
accidents
?
Source: BMO Capital Markets, McKinsey, WNA, UxC
Current
situation
• Supply-demand fundamentals are different today compared to Three Mile Island and Chernobyl
• The need to address climate change favors nuclear power
Global Average
The majority of world population faces the electricity
shortage
10
Energy sufficient countries, more 5000 kWh per capita
3 046
5 599
1 112
7 515 8 577
9 786
2 460
2 275
513
2 055
2 604
78
4 084
6 394
12 301*
*electricity consumption,
kWh per capita, 2010,
Average by region/country, 2010
3 107
Countries with average energy sufficiency (2500 -5000 kWh)
Countries with inadequate energy supply (less than 2500 kWh)
Approximately 70% of world population face permanent energy deficit
The Fukushima has challenged the nuclear renaissance but
not the fundamentals of industry development
11
The need for a reliable supply of affordable
electricity is growing
Source: U.S. EIA/International Energy Outlook 2010
Nuclear power is the only affordable
baseload electricity solution for the low
carbon economy
Costs
($/MWh) Base load
Nuclear
Gas: CCGT
CO2 costs
($/MWh)
Coal:
w/90%CC(S)
59
Coal: SC/USC 65
86
>100 Renewables
62
partly
-
24
11
-
13
Source: Projected costs of generating electricity 2010 by IEA, NEA,
OECD
1 2
In the short to medium term: change in nuclear politics, refocusing on safety and reduction of the
economic risks of accidents; new regulations will lead to higher costs of newbuilds and NPP
modernization, etc.
In the longer-term: minimal impact on industry development. Nuclear remains to be the solution both for
developing and developed countries, which provides energy security
The impact of
Fukushima
406
495 543
590 639
687 739
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
CAGR +1,5% p.a. CAGR +2% p.a.
quadri
llio
n B
tu
Share of nuclear energy in total world energy supply
Source: U.S. EIA/International Energy Outlook 2010 Source: Projected costs of generating electricity 2010 by IEA, NEA, OECD
12
$40,0
$45,0
$50,0
$55,0
$60,0
$65,0
$70,0
$75,0
U3O8 price, USD/pound
Fukushima
accident
-30%
Fukushima accident led to significant decrease in prices. U3O8 spot price fell by 30% from 70
USD/pound to 49 USD/pound and currently is still quite low – just near 53 USD/pound of U3O8
Fukushima accident led to significant decrease in
prices
13
Uranium Supply-Demand Balance
Source: WNA
Atomredmetzoloto:
Diversification Challenges
REE as ―Critical Metals‖
Люминофоры
• европий, иттрий, церий
Сенсорные датчики
• иттрий
Генераторы
• неодим,
празеодим,
диспрозий, тербий
Оптика
• неодим, лантан,
церий
Электроприводы
• неодим
Гидролокаторы
• тербий, ниобий
Электроприводы
управления оперением
ракет
• самарий
Контроль гравитации в
стабилизаторах «умных»
бомб
• неодим
The REE Market Challenges
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010Е
• China– is almost a monopoly
controlling close to 97 % of the
worlds production
• China has introduced a strict
quota system and steadily reduces
amount of rare earths available for
export
• China said in July 2010 that it
would begin cutting exports and
consolidating the industry,
ostensibly for environmental
reasons.
• Prices for REO has spiked
tremendously in 2010-2011, but set
to fall on lower short term demand
forecast
• Current trend for increasing
internal consumption and by as
early as 2015 China may become a
net importer of REO
World Rare earth production 1990-2010
Pro
du
cti
on
vo
lum
e, th
s t
on
ns
China
Others
Sources: Metal Pages, Asian Metals, Lynas Corporation, TMR, Rosatom
Currently a non Chinese production is being formed and will alternate the balance
substantially. Up to 40% REE to be produced outside China in 2020
Diversification has both economical and political reasons
Economical
• Uranium market is relatively
small and consolidated
Diversification allows to
overcome these limitations
• Gains from diversification:
single product risk reduction
and therefore value increase
• Additional revenue and
margin growth
Political
• Insure availability and
readiness for innovation
economic growth
• Develop mineral
resource base
• Geopolitical aspects
Sustainable leadership
18
Min
ing
bu
sin
ess v
alu
e m
axim
izati
on
• Russian strategic deposits + • Quality assets and high margin
production in countries with better mining conditions
Producer with least possible production costs and NPP lifetime supply guarantee
Growth rate surpressing growth rate of the market
Being among top 3 players in the key markets
Atomredmetzoloto:
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