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Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

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Page 1: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change

Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Page 2: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

•Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas.

•Methane, Nitrogen oxide, and CFC’s are also contributors.

•These gasses trap heat from the sun.

•They have a delicate balance in the atmosphere – too few and we freeze, but too many and we get too hot.

Greenhouse Gasses

Image / quotes to go in this side bar location

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Page 3: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Climate Variability and Climate Change

Normals

Climate Change

Climate Oscillations

Climate VariabilityNormals

Short term: (years to decadal) rises and falls about the trend line (ENSO)

Long Term Trends or major shifts in climate: (centuries)

Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. PDO, NAO)

Page 4: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Warming doesn’t happen equally everywhere

Page 5: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Causes of Rising Natural Disasters

Global Trends in Frequency of Major Natural Disasters

Biological

Geological

Hydrometeorological

Adaptation D

eficit

Number of Disasters in EMDAT, 1900 – 2005

Page 6: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Temperature – Past and Future

Page 7: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

http://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/glacier_model.htm

Is 1 C warming important? Scenario of projected shifts in ecosystems in Glacier National Park

Page 8: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Precipitation – Past and Future

Page 9: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Warming is predicted through 21st century

Increase average temp 2-3 degrees C by 2050s

Increase in winter precipitation 1-13%

Decrease in summer precipitation -4 to -10%

Global Climate Models - Scenarios for Columbia Basin

Future climate will be different than the past

Page 10: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

What is climate change adaptation?

• Prepare for and respond to the potential impacts of climate change

– The future will be different than the past

– Ensure a resilient community

Page 11: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Changes to temperature & precipitation

can impact communities in a variety of ways:

Impacts: Anticipate Changes

What are your risks?

InfrastructureLocal EconomyHealth and SafetyOthers

What are your opportunities?

AgricultureRecreationClimate refugeesOthers

Page 12: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Pine Beetle Recreation

FiresRecreation Closure

What changes are you observing that may be related to Climate Change?

Identifying Current Impacts

Page 13: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Planning 2000 2020 2040 20802100

Lifespan

Street layout

Buildings

Infrastructure

Unavoidable “surprises”

Global peak oil

Additional 0.8 degrees warming

Global -50% emissions

Plan for a different future

Page 14: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Concern:• Increasing rain events during

winter as temperatures warm

Some Considerations:

• No existing policy to encourage reduction of runoff on properties

• Will climate change make it better or worse?

• Can we easily undertake adaptive actions?

Process: Assess Vulnerability

Example: Stormwater management in Elkford

Page 15: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Process: Risk Assessment

Risk = Vulnerability x Probability of an impact

Process Step Summary Description

Purpose

Vulnerability assessment

Identifying the “weak” spots

Figure out which risks can be adapted to more easily, and which will require substantial resources or

other changes.

Risk assessment What to pay attention to first

Figure out the biggest risks requiring action

Page 16: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Wildfire• Create defensible space adjacent to existing structures – reduce

forest• Require new developments to have defensible space – example: no

construction within 300 metres of the dense forest, and the forest adjacent to new development thinned

Process: Develop Adaptation Strategies

Flooding• Identify no-development zones where runoff water may be

temporarily stored during a flood event

• Build flood protection infrastructure / dyke systems

• Require developments to use pervious materials in driveways and parking lots, and build roads without curbs and gutters

Two Examples of Strategies from Elkford

Page 17: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Additional Adaptation Ideas

Tourism & Recreation• Snow security strategies for ski resorts• Increase mountain biking opportunities

Food Security• Backyard gardens and markets• Planting trees on municipal land that provide fruit• Community greenhouses

Health• Community cooling centers• Planting shade trees

Page 18: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Role of Local Governments:• responsible for local community development and hazard mitigation;• can influence the degree to which a community will be prepared for

climate change impacts.

Climate Change is a global trend…… and impacts will be felt most locally

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Page 19: Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation

Anticipate changes. Accept that the future climate will be substantially different than the past.

Use scenario based planning to evaluate options (rather than the historic record).

Expect surprises and plan for flexibility and robustness in the face of uncertain changes rather than counting on one approach.

Plan for the long haul.

Key things to remember

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