Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate Change Climate Science, Local Impacts & Adaptation.

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    11-Jan-2016

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Presentation By: Communities Adapting to Climate ChangeClimate Science, Local Impacts & AdaptationCarbon Dioxide (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas.Methane, Nitrogen oxide, and CFCs are also contributors. These gasses trap heat from the sun. They have a delicate balance in the atmosphere too few and we freeze, but too many and we get too hot.Greenhouse GassesImage / quotes to go in this side bar location1-800-505-8998 www.cbt.org1Climate Variability and Climate ChangeNormalsClimate ChangeClimate OscillationsClimate VariabilityNormalsShort term: (years to decadal) rises and falls about the trend line (ENSO)Long Term Trends or major shifts in climate: (centuries)Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. PDO, NAO)Warming doesnt happen equally everywhere Causes of Rising Natural DisastersGlobal Trends in Frequency of Major Natural DisastersBiologicalGeologicalHydrometeorologicalAdaptation DeficitNumber of Disasters in EMDAT, 1900 2005Temperature Past and Futurehttp://www.nrmsc.usgs.gov/research/glacier_model.htmIs 1 C warming important? Scenario of projected shifts in ecosystems in Glacier National ParkPrecipitation Past and FutureWarming is predicted through 21st centuryIncrease average temp 2-3 degrees C by 2050sIncrease in winter precipitation 1-13%Decrease in summer precipitation -4 to -10%Global Climate Models - Scenarios for Columbia BasinFuture climate will be different than the pastWhat is climate change adaptation?Prepare for and respond to the potential impacts of climate change The future will be different than the pastEnsure a resilient communityChanges to temperature & precipitation can impact communities in a variety of ways:Impacts: Anticipate ChangesWhat are your risks?InfrastructureLocal EconomyHealth and SafetyOthersWhat are your opportunities?AgricultureRecreationClimate refugeesOthersWhat changes are you observing that may be related to Climate Change?Identifying Current ImpactsPlanning20002020204020802100LifespanStreet layoutBuildingsInfrastructureUnavoidable surprisesGlobal peak oilAdditional 0.8 degrees warmingGlobal -50% emissions Plan for a different futureConcern:Increasing rain events during winter as temperatures warmSome Considerations:No existing policy to encourage reduction of runoff on propertiesWill climate change make it better or worse?Can we easily undertake adaptive actions? Process: Assess VulnerabilityExample: Stormwater management in ElkfordProcess: Risk AssessmentRisk = Vulnerability x Probability of an impactWildfireCreate defensible space adjacent to existing structures reduce forestRequire new developments to have defensible space example: no construction within 300 metres of the dense forest, and the forest adjacent to new development thinnedProcess: Develop Adaptation Strategies FloodingIdentify no-development zones where runoff water may be temporarily stored during a flood eventBuild flood protection infrastructure / dyke systemsRequire developments to use pervious materials in driveways and parking lots, and build roads without curbs and guttersTwo Examples of Strategies from ElkfordAdditional Adaptation IdeasTourism & RecreationSnow security strategies for ski resortsIncrease mountain biking opportunitiesFood SecurityBackyard gardens and marketsPlanting trees on municipal land that provide fruitCommunity greenhousesHealthCommunity cooling centersPlanting shade treesRole of Local Governments:responsible for local community development and hazard mitigation;can influence the degree to which a community will be prepared for climate change impacts.Climate Change is a global trend and impacts will be felt most locally1-800-505-8998 www.cbt.org1Anticipate changes. Accept that the future climate will be substantially different than the past.Use scenario based planning to evaluate options (rather than the historic record). Expect surprises and plan for flexibility and robustness in the face of uncertain changes rather than counting on one approach.Plan for the long haul.Key things to remember1-800-505-8998 www.cbt.org1CO2 primary GHG, accounting for the majority of global warming and is also the most significant form of municipal emissions.Climate Variability: The range of fluctuations around long-term average climate conditions. It refers to variations in the state of climate beyond that of individual weather events.Drivers of climate variability include El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other phenomena. The produce warm, cool, wet or dry periods across different regions and are a natural part of climate variability.Climate Change: A significant and persistent change in the mean state of the climate or its variability. CC occurs in response to changes in some aspect of Earths environment.Climate: is determined by the long-term pattern of temp+precip averages and extremes at a location.Weather: is a minute by minute variable condition of the atmosphere on a local scale.Climate Change can include changes in Temp, Precip, Increase occurrence of extreme weather events, Increased variability.Normals: above represent 30 year periods for trends and projections. Note that traditionally planning takes place based on past. In the future, one cant expect the next 30 years to be a repeat of the past 30 years due to the influence of climate change.Temperatures in the Columbia Basin increased 1.5 degrees C over the last century. This is more than double the average global temperature increase of approx0.6 degrees over the 20th century.The adverse impacts of CC often will fall hardest on poor people because they are concentrated in areas that will bear the brunt of climate change and because they are often the least equipped to deal with its impacts. They are also the ones who are least responsible for climate change.The native peoples of the polar regions will likely continue to see their traditional ways of life disappear as the ice thins and permafrost melt. Not the RED areas are concentrated in the polar regions this is because the earth does not warm uniformly at all latitudes polar regions are warming much faster than equatorial regions.Credit for this slide goes to Heather Auld of Environment Canada. This is part of a presentation that was given under SFUs Adaptation to Climate Team (ACT) series on Extreme Weather (http://www.sfu.ca/act/program/extreme_weather_events.html). The overall message of this slide is that the number of natural disasters has grown significantly since the late 1940s and this is largely due to an adaptation deficit (i.e. failure to plan human activities, land-use and infrastructure in a manner that minimizes the impacts of extreme weather).The EMDAT database contains essential core data on the occurrence and effects of over 16,000 mass disasters in the world from 1900 to present. The database is compiled from various sources, including UN agencies, non-governmental organisations, insurance companies, research institutes and press agencies. Zero degrees C region is almost gone by 2050s. Indication of melting glaciers. Implications for our water resources.The regional climate model used for these predictions is warmer and wetter therefore shows predictions of wetter summers - than on many GCMs.Notice the changes in vegetationNotice the reduction in glaciers over timeThis projection was done in 1994 and models the impacts of temperature change, but does not factor in changes to precipitation. For this reason it is most useful to look at this as a possible scenario, recognizing that the forest/vegetation experts generally agree that there will be an upward and northward movement of certain vegetative communities as the temperature warms.Its important to understand the caveats on this slide. This model shows the impact of a one degree temperature change only, and does not factor in any other changes like amount, type or timing of precipitation. Nonetheless, the upward and northward movement of vegetation is generally predicted in most climate change scenarios.Winter increase and summer decrease - How do we plan for shortfalls in water? How do plan for different timings in water? How do we plan for greater variability both annually, seasonally, and intra-seasonally?*To little sometimes, too much other times.Snowfall over the past 100 years has decreased significantly, suggesting that precipitation forms are changing from snow to rain. *Warmer climate, more precipitation in the winter and spring, less precipitation in the summer**Direct impactschanges in floodextreme heat eventssnowpackforest firesbeetle riskIndirect impactschanges in ski tourismsummer recreationhighway maintenancepublic healthspecies protection*Pine beetle combination of warmer winters and fire suppressionFires increase in number of fires, scale of fires, area, stand replacingRecreation closures less snow in winterclosure of backcountry due to fire hazard in summerRecreation opportunities increased summer activity such as mountain biking, extension of shoulder seasons.*Challenges at the community level 100 year decisions, planning for the old future or the new futureAll the changes are within the lifespan of the assets that were making decisions on today.Need to incorporate future climate scenarios in planning decisions.Local govts are erecting or significantly influencing the vast majority of infrastructure, building or zoning decisions key areas that now need to take climatic changes into account if they are to be resilient to future changes.Probability of an impact = exposure x sensitivity.Some adaptation processes have used a disciplined risk assessment approach where factors such as vulnerability and probability are given numerical rankings. It is also possible to get reasonable results using a more qualitative process, but you still need to have clear definitions for what constitutes a low, medium or high priority issue and/or action.These two examples show some of the tactics that were suggested for managing Elkfords Flooding and Wildfire concerns.Depending on what issues your community tackles, these ideas show some additional possibilities/approaches for three issues that will be common to many Basin communities. Each of these can be broken down into sub-strategies and tacticsfor example, snow security strategies can involve everything from snow-making to manipulating terrain/vegetation to decrease solar exposure.Local government is where the rubber can hit the road most effectively. By investigating the risks, threats and opportunities associated with climate impacts, local governments will be in a much better place to work individually and collectively on the task of adaptation.

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