Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2011

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ECLAC projects growth of 4.3% for the Latin American and Caribbean economy in 2011, lower than the rate in 2010 when the region was rebounding from the impacts of the economic and financial crisis of 2008-2009. The forecast growth rate for 2011, which represents a 3.2% rise in per capita GDP, reflects two main factors: the slacking of global economic growth and the cooling of domestic demand in Brazil, the region’s largest economy, prompted by the government’s measures to keep the economy from overheating after its growth surge in 2010.

Text of Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2011

  • 2011

    2011

    www.eclac.org

    ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN (ECLAC)

    COMISIN ECONMICA PARA AMRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE (CEPAL)

    Preliminary Overview of the Economiesof Latin America and the Caribbean

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    United Nations PublicationISBN 978-92-1-021083-6

    E1100980 - February 2012ISSN 1014-7802

    Sales No: E.12.II.G.2Copyright United Nations 2012

    Printed in Santiago, Chile

    E-ISBN 978-92-1-055010-9

  • Panorama socialde Amrica Latina

    2011

    Preliminary Overview of the Economiesof Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Applications for the right to reproduce this work, either in whole or in part, should be sent to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations Headquarters, New York, N.Y. 10017, United States. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and inform the United Nations of such reproduction.

    United Nations PublicationISBN: 978-92-1-021083-6 ISSN printed version: 1014-7802E-ISBN: 978-92-1-055010-9LC/G.2512-P Sales No.: E.12.II.G.2Copyright United Nations, February 2012. All rights reservedPrinted in Santiago, Chile 2011-980

    Alicia BrcenaExecutive Secretary

    Antonio PradoDeputy Executive Secretary

    Jrgen WellerOfficer-in-Charge Economic Development Division

    Ricardo PrezChief Documents and Publications Division

    The Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean is an annual publication prepared by the Economic Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). This 2011 edition was prepared under the supervision of Jrgen Weller, Officer-in-Charge of the Division.

    In the preparation of this edition, the Economic Development Division was assisted by the Statistics and Economic Projections Division, the ECLAC subregional headquarters in Mexico City and Port of Spain, and the Commissions country offices in Bogota, Brasilia, Buenos Aires, Montevideo and Washington, D.C.

    The regional analyses were prepared by the following experts (in the order in which the subjects are presented: Luis Felipe Jimnez, Osvaldo Kacef and Jrgen Weller (introduction), Juan Pablo Jimnez (fiscal policy), Rodrigo Crcamo, Ramn Pineda and Benjamin Rae (monetary and exchange-rate policy), Sandra Manuelito (economic activity and domestic prices), Jrgen Weller (employment and wages), Fernando Cant and Luis Felipe Jimnez, (external sector). The text boxes were prepared by Dillon Alleyne, Rodrigo Crcamo, Michele Dookie, Luis Felipe Jimnez, Cornelia Kaldewei, Isabel Lpez, Beverly Lugay, Andrea Podest, Oceane Seuleiman and Ricardo Zapata.

    The country notes are based on studies conducted by the following experts: Martn Abeles (Argentina), Dillon Alleyne (Guyana, Jamaica and Suriname), Jos Manuel Arroyo (Paraguay), Claudio Aravena (Ecuador), Rodrigo Crcamo (Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela), lvaro Fuentes (Uruguay), Juan Alberto Fuentes (Cuba), Randolph Gilbert (Haiti), Michael Hendrickson (Bahamas and Belize), Luis Felipe Jimnez (Chile), Beverly Lugay (Eastern Caribbean Monetary Union), Sandra Manuelito (Peru), Rodolfo Minzer (Panama), Carlos Mussi (Brazil), Ramn Padilla (Costa Rica and Mexico), Willard Phillips (Barbados), Benjamin Rae (Plurinational State of Bolivia), Juan Carlos Ramrez, Olga Luca Acosta and Alejandra Corchuelo (Colombia), Juan Carlos Rivas (Guatemala), Francisco Villareal (Dominican Republic and El Salvador), Kohei Yoshida (Trinidad and Tobago) and Willy Zapata (Honduras and Nicaragua). Benjamin Rae coordinated the notes on the Caribbean countries. The economic projections were produced by Claudio Aravena, Fernando Cant and Sandra Manuelito. Alejandra Acevedo, Vianka Aliaga, Leandro Cabello, Jazmn Chiu, Cameron Daneshvar, Daymler OFarrill, Omar Velasco and Ann-Kathrin Zotz were responsible for the processing and presentation of the statistical data and graphical presentations.

    The CD-ROM presented with the printed version of the Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean contains the analytical notes on the situation in the countries of the region in 2011.

    Note:In this publication, the term country is used to refer to territorial entities, whether these are States as understood by international law and practice or simply territories for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.The following symbols have been used in the tables shown in the Overview: Three dots () indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. A full stop (.) is used to indicate decimals. The word dollars refers to United States dollars unless otherwise specified.

  • Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2011 3

    Contents

    Pages

    Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................ 9Regional panorama ...................................................................................................................................................... 11

    Chapter IIntroduction ......................................................................................................................................................................... 13 A. The international context ................................................................................................................................................. 15 B. Macroeconomic policy .................................................................................................................................................... 17 1. Fiscal policy .............................................................................................................................................................. 17 2. Monetary and exchange-rate policies ........................................................................................................................ 18 C. The performance of the regions economies .................................................................................................................... 19 1. Activity, prices and labour markets ........................................................................................................................... 19 2. The external sector .................................................................................................................................................... 21 D. Prospects and challenges for 2012 ................................................................................................................................... 23

    Chapter IIMacroeconomic policy ..................................................................................................................................................... 31 A. Fiscal policy ..................................................................................................................................................................... 31 B. Monetary and exchange-rate policy ................................................................................................................................. 37

    Chapter IIIDomestic performance .................................................................................................................................................... 47 A. Economic activity and investment ................................................................................................................................... 47 B. Domestic prices ................................................................................................................................................................ 52 C. Employment and wages ................................................................................................................................................... 54

    Chapter IVThe external sector ............................................................................................................................................................ 59 A. The balance-of-payments current account ....................................................................................................................... 59 1. Terms of trade ............................................................................................................................................................ 60 2. The goods and services balance ................................................................................................................................ 62 3. The income and transfers balance ............................................................................................................................. 63 B. The capital and financial account .................................................................................................................................... 64

  • Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)4

    Country notesSouth America ..................................................................................................................................................................... 67 Argentina ........................................................................................................................