13
California Energy Commission 1 Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Demand Forecasts 2014-2024 October 1, 2013 Tim Olson Transportation Energy Office Fuels and Transportation Division [email protected] / 916-654-4528

Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

  • Upload
    vankien

  • View
    214

  • Download
    1

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

California Energy Commission

1

Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast

Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Demand Forecasts 2014-2024

October 1, 2013 Tim Olson���

Transportation Energy Office���Fuels and Transportation Division

[email protected] / 916-654-4528

Page 2: Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

California Energy Commission

2

Vehicle Survey   Commission conducts a periodical vehicle survey to update

models and inputs used in forecasting demand for light duty vehicles of all vehicle and fuel types, including PEVs.

Survey offers choices of:

•  Fuel type: Gasoline (2 technologies), diesel (2 technologies), CNG (3 technologies), FFV, EV, PHEV, FCV

•  Vehicle class: not just cars and trucks, but 15 different classes. NEV is not included in survey.

•  Other vehicle attributes for each vehicle class and fuel type combination, including:

  Vehicle Price

  Fuel Cost per Mile

  Maintenance Cost

  Range

  MPG

  Acceleration

  Cargo Space

  Incentives

Page 3: Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

California Energy Commission

3

Anticipated California Vehicle growth: Passenger Cars & Light Trucks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Mill

ion

s

Low Demand

Reference

High Demand

Page 4: Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

California Energy Commission

4

2012 Market Segment Stock Distribution by Vehicle Class

Page 5: Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

California Energy Commission

5

Technology Introduction Schedule by Fuel Type and Vehicle Class Sierra Research

Page 6: Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

California Energy Commission

6

Projected Gasoline Prices

Page 7: Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

California Energy Commission

7

Laws and Plans on Record California ZEV Mandate:

  The mandate requires OEMs to offer and sell LDV vehicles in different ZEV categories.

  ZEV new vehicle sales requirement gradually growing to set at 15.4% of new vehicle sales in 2025

CAFE Standard Vehicle fuel economy

  Fleet Average 35.5 MPG by 2016

  Fleet Average 54.5 by 2025 Governor’s Executive Order B-16-12 calls for:

  1.5 Million ZEVs on California roads by 2025

  Infrastructure to support 1 Million ZEVs by 2020

Page 8: Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

California Energy Commission

8

One way to reach the goal: On-Road Light Duty Vehicle Requirements

Source: Advanced Clean Cars: Initial Statement of Reasons, ARB December 2011

Page 9: Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

California Energy Commission

9

ZEV Expectation

Source: Advanced Clean Cars: Initial Statement of Reasons, ARB December 2011

Page 10: Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

California Energy Commission

10

Projected ZEV Compact Vehicle Prices :

Source: Sierra Research, 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45 20

11

2012

20

13

2014

20

15

2016

20

17

2018

20

19

2020

20

21

2022

20

23

2024

20

25

2026

20

27

2028

20

29

2030

20

31

2032

20

33

2034

20

35

Th

ou

san

ds

PHEV

EV

Page 11: Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

California Energy Commission

11

Transportation Energy Prices & Cost per Mile Reference Case

Page 12: Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

California Energy Commission

12

Preliminary Forecast PEV New Vehicle Sales

Personal and Commercial LDV

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

Th

ou

san

ds

Reference

High

Page 13: Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand · PDF file01.10.2013 · California Energy Commission! 1! Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural

California Energy Commission

13

Preliminary Forecast On-Road PEVs

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

Th

ou

san

ds

High Demand

Reference

Low Demand