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California Energy Commission
1
Preliminary Electric Vehicle Demand Forecast
Workshop on Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Demand Forecasts 2014-2024
October 1, 2013 Tim Olson���
Transportation Energy Office���Fuels and Transportation Division
[email protected] / 916-654-4528
California Energy Commission
2
Vehicle Survey Commission conducts a periodical vehicle survey to update
models and inputs used in forecasting demand for light duty vehicles of all vehicle and fuel types, including PEVs.
Survey offers choices of:
• Fuel type: Gasoline (2 technologies), diesel (2 technologies), CNG (3 technologies), FFV, EV, PHEV, FCV
• Vehicle class: not just cars and trucks, but 15 different classes. NEV is not included in survey.
• Other vehicle attributes for each vehicle class and fuel type combination, including:
Vehicle Price
Fuel Cost per Mile
Maintenance Cost
Range
MPG
Acceleration
Cargo Space
Incentives
California Energy Commission
3
Anticipated California Vehicle growth: Passenger Cars & Light Trucks
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Mill
ion
s
Low Demand
Reference
High Demand
California Energy Commission
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2012 Market Segment Stock Distribution by Vehicle Class
California Energy Commission
5
Technology Introduction Schedule by Fuel Type and Vehicle Class Sierra Research
California Energy Commission
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Projected Gasoline Prices
California Energy Commission
7
Laws and Plans on Record California ZEV Mandate:
The mandate requires OEMs to offer and sell LDV vehicles in different ZEV categories.
ZEV new vehicle sales requirement gradually growing to set at 15.4% of new vehicle sales in 2025
CAFE Standard Vehicle fuel economy
Fleet Average 35.5 MPG by 2016
Fleet Average 54.5 by 2025 Governor’s Executive Order B-16-12 calls for:
1.5 Million ZEVs on California roads by 2025
Infrastructure to support 1 Million ZEVs by 2020
California Energy Commission
8
One way to reach the goal: On-Road Light Duty Vehicle Requirements
Source: Advanced Clean Cars: Initial Statement of Reasons, ARB December 2011
California Energy Commission
9
ZEV Expectation
Source: Advanced Clean Cars: Initial Statement of Reasons, ARB December 2011
California Energy Commission
10
Projected ZEV Compact Vehicle Prices :
Source: Sierra Research, 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 20
11
2012
20
13
2014
20
15
2016
20
17
2018
20
19
2020
20
21
2022
20
23
2024
20
25
2026
20
27
2028
20
29
2030
20
31
2032
20
33
2034
20
35
Th
ou
san
ds
PHEV
EV
California Energy Commission
11
Transportation Energy Prices & Cost per Mile Reference Case
California Energy Commission
12
Preliminary Forecast PEV New Vehicle Sales
Personal and Commercial LDV
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Th
ou
san
ds
Reference
High
California Energy Commission
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Preliminary Forecast On-Road PEVs
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
Th
ou
san
ds
High Demand
Reference
Low Demand