Attrition Prediction Model

I Presented by: Amandeep Kaur(10pghr05)

Aneesha Pramanik(10pghr08) Prakhar Ranjan(10pghr35)

Ria Ghosh(10pghr42) Sudhakar Mishra(10pghr48)

Attrition

"A reduction in the number of employees through retirement, resignation or death"

Reasons why an employee leaves the Organization

• Monetary Factors

• Lack of Good Working Conditions

• No Flexible Work Schedules

•The Mismatch Between Job and Person

•Too Little Coaching and Feedback

•Lack of support

Cont..

•Stress From Overwork and Work-Life Imbalance

•Loss of Trust and Confidence in Senior Leaders

•Less frequency in giving rewards.

Cont…

Cont…

•Lack of understanding contribution to overall company objectives

•Lack of appreciation

•Lack of challenges in job

•The job or workplace not up to employee’s expectations

•Lack of respect

• Very Few Supportive colleagues

•Higher Studies

•Favoritism

Cont…

EFFECT ON ORGANIZATION IF ITS EMPLOYEES LEAVE

Loss of productivity

Replacing qualified employees

Poor retention creates a “revolving door” culture within the organization lowering morale and confidence.

Cost of overtime or temporary help

Recruiting costs

Interviewing costs

Time spent in orientation

Cost of attrition

Lost Sales Cost

Recruitment Cost

Low Productivity

cost

Training Cost

New Hire Cost

Attrition cost

People Cost

Attrition Spread Across Industry In Different Verticals

Industry Distribution

BFSI(25%)

IT(20%)

Manufacturing(13%)

FMCG(10%)

Pharma(8%)

Telecom(5%)

Retail(5%)

Gender Distribution

Male(82%)

Female(18%)

Region Distribution

North(38%)

South(32%)

Central(30%)

Role Distribution

Frontline(69%)

Managerial(19%)

Leadership(1%)

Supervisor(11%)

Objective

• To develop a dynamic predictive model on attrition that will help in manpower planning and reducing employee turnover

DescriptionEmployee attrition is becoming an increasingly

serious issue in this firm based in the IT services sector. Understanding which factors cause

employees to leave and which actions retain them is an important Business/HR Intelligence

application.

This project through the use of ‘predictive modeling’ and

various analytic methods aims to help predict for the organization:

The probability that an employee will leave over a given time period (for example, in the

next year) and

Quantifies the relationship of the input data to the probability of attrition. For e.g. - an employee’s job-action history,

age, gender, the length of time in a position, salary history etc.

Significance for IBM - Daksh

Through this model, we hope to

provide the organization

valuable insights by looking at the

predicted attrition rates and trends

for employees with high-termination probability, which also helps pinpoint

the reasons for termination.

If the organization

knows why its employees are

likely to leave, it can develop

effective policies and

strategies for employee retention.

It can identify and respond to

a problem before it affects the bottom line.

It can also use turnover

predictions to refine forecasts

for resources that are

necessary to meet future

strategic goals.

Attrition Prediction Model

• Given the modelY= constant(x1+x2+x3+x4)+constant(z1+z2)+ B + C

WhereY = attrition rate z1 = Background Check

FailureX1= Higher Education z2 = V & A rejects

x2 = Personal Reason B = Market Scenarios

x3 = Health Problems C= Resource Pool

x4 = Better Career Opportunities

Deliverables

To create a Predictive Model on Attrition using HRIS framework

Application and implementation of the model followed by its evaluation of the performance of

the predictive model

Test of autocorrelation to know the seasonal pattern

Multiple regression based forecasting for prediction

Model fit to know the reliability and the reality

Through sensitivity analysis we can predict on various different scenarios

Methodology

Analysis of factors responsible for attrition at IBM

Literature Review of various predictive attrition models

Devising an attrition model customized for IBM

Pilot testing for 2 departments

Collection of historical data from the HRIS for testing the attrition model

HRIS at IBM

IBM – Daksh uses the PeopleSoft

program for HRIS

This handles updates, encoding, reports

generation on Headcount, Attrition & Retention rates

Extraction of relevant employee data from PeopleSoft using the

following criteria

INDUSTRY EXAMPLES

Infosys Attrition Prediction

• In 2009-10, attrition touched 13.4%, a level last seen in early 2008.

• Out of the 13.4% attrition rate, 3 percentage points is involuntary attrition.

• Infosys Analytics team has delivered many short term analytic projects like iRACE which is use to predict the Employee Attrition Rate

GENPACT