Predictive Analytics with Simulation Conference 2011 2011 - Brochure.pdf · Predictive Analytics with…

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<ul><li><p> October 30-November 3, 2011Orlando, Florida</p><p>Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress Hotel</p><p>Hosted by </p><p>Predictive Analytics with Simulation Conference 2011</p><p>Keynote Speakers</p><p>HENRY T. GLISSONLieutenant General U.S. Army RetiredManaging Director True North Logistics</p><p>Enabling the Armys Materiel Enterprise</p><p>Industry Focus</p><p>Conference Topics Include: DoD Readiness/Transformation</p><p>Forces and Staff PlanningMateriel Synchronization Decision Support Cost and Readiness RelationshipsCourse(s) of Action Analysis</p><p> Accelerate Lean Six Sigma InitiativesContinuous Process ImprovementBottleneck and Throughput AnalysisPredictive Capacity Modeling</p><p> Strategic InitiativesSupply Chain/LogisticsService Level ImprovementEnterprise Decision Support Optimization</p><p> Project and Portfolio Planning &amp; Optimization</p><p>Project SelectionResource Capacity PlanningStrategic PlanningProject &amp; Portfolio Risk Analysis</p><p> Providing High Quality Healthcare for an Uncertain FutureStrategic Patient FlowNew Facility Design Ensuring Capacity Meets Future Demand Schedule Optimization to Improve Bed Utilization</p><p> Simulation Wars Academic CompetitionStudents will be competing to develop the best FutureState in manufacturing, healthcare and portfolio planning</p><p>Attend presentations from the Army, Navy, Pfizer, LockheedMartin, Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia, Panda Restaurants, The VA, General Dynamics and more to learn how they are using leading edge simulation solutionstoachievebreakthroughperformance at strategic, tactical, and operational levels.</p><p>DoDGovernmentHealthcarePharmaceutical</p><p>ManufacturingLogisticsAcademia</p><p>MARK W. SHAFERSenior Vice President of Revenue Management &amp; AnalyticsWaltDisneyParks&amp;Resorts</p><p>Game-Changing Analytics: A Disney Perspective</p></li><li><p>Discoverthe latest predictive analytic technology and techniques being used by your peers in both traditional and non-traditional ways to help them make better decisions faster. Enjoy valuable networking time in a variety of settings with these simulation users to envision how these solutions can be implemented in your organizations. </p><p>The entire ProModel team will also be at your disposal during the week. Network with one of our executives for an enhanced perspective on various industry trends. Meet with your regional representative to see how you can further benefit from the use of our technologies. Team up with one of our expert support engineers or consultants to solve that puzzling modeling problem that seems to defy solution. Whatever your needs, you will have access to the representative with your answer.</p><p>Predictive Analytics with Simulation Conference 2011</p><p>KeynoteSpeakers</p><p>Enabling the Armys Materiel Enterprise</p><p>Discover how the use of decision support tools can facilitate better decision-making and management across the enterprise as it performs the equipping </p><p>function of the recurring Army Force Generation (ARFORGEN) process.</p><p>Game-Changing Analytics: A Disney Perspective</p><p>We live in a world of constant change and evolution. Yesterdays strategic advantage can quickly become tomorrows industry standard. Your companys ability </p><p>to compete on analytics and leverage the unique competitive advantages gained in this area is no </p><p>exception to this hard cold truth. To stay competitive, companies must continue to invest and evolve at an ever increasing rate. In this plenary talk, Shafer will explore some of the ways one of the most creative </p><p>companies in the world thinks about analytical-based decision making and how it integrates technology </p><p>and analytical innovation into delivering world-class experiences to its fans and guests across </p><p>multiple platforms.</p><p>HENRY T. GLISSONLieutenant General, U.S. Army Retired</p><p>Managing Director, True North Logistics, LLC.</p><p>MARK W. SHAFER</p><p>Senior Vice President of Revenue Management and Analytics</p><p>Walt Disney Parks and Resorts</p></li><li><p>SpeakerPreview:Capabilities to Synchronize Army Force Generation (ARFORGEN)Fred Rawcliffe, FORSCOM G3 Plans, Strategy, Policy, and Transformation Division, Enterprise ArchitectArmy Force Generation (ARFORGEN) is a force management process that leverages modular unit designs and operational cycles to provide a sustained deployment capability of operationally ready units. ARFORGEN synchronizes people, equipment, training, resources and formations over time to satisfy force requirements placed on the Armys force inventory. Individual units undergo a structured progression of increased readiness over time, culminating in full mission readiness and availability to deploy in their Available cycle. The necessary manning, equipping, resourcing, and training processes are synchronized to generate ready forces from the active and reserve components to achieve a sustained deployment capability and a capability to surge forces for other requirements. </p><p>AST provides an Enterprise methodology and mechanism for global synchronization of Army capital. AST harmonizes actual force requirements with projected force structure and also provides prognostic analysis on force generation to previously analog and stove-piped assessments. AST has provided substantial new predictive analytical capability within this new force generation process. Specifically, AST provides ARFORGEN functional drag &amp; drop applications containing graphical time-based depictions of force requirements, unit schedules, and events by unit over time by location for Army Enterprise synchronization. </p><p>Model-BasedEnterpriseJourneyforProgramConfidencePAULA.RODRIAN,SeniorProgramManager,LockheedMartinSpaceSystemsCompanyLockheed Martin (LM) selected the Portfolio Simulator tool for the NASA Orion program supply chain, and the LM Corporate modeling and simulation (M&amp;S) strategy element evaluations. Our space experience over the past 50 years has given us exceptional expertise in all aspects of production and mission operations; however not all journeys are smooth. By leveraging the modeling &amp; simulation capability, the integration of elements and conditions can occur to improve program performance. The understanding of demands, priorities, resource availability, and time factors including the potential what-if scenarios are key to successful operations by ensuring the best sequence of efforts occurs. For the supply chain, insight into the capability and risk to costs and schedule were of primary interest. For the LM Corporate M&amp;S Strategy, the focus was on reflecting the effects of decisions that would influence the tactical implementation. In both cases, the tool application enabled setting expectations and making recommendations for the programs.</p><p>Navy Synchronization Toolset MIKE MACEDONIA, President, SASI Defense TechnologiesThe Navy Synchronization Toolset (NST) initiative is aimed at improving the U.S. Navys resource management capabilities through the synchronization of operational demand driver schedules for naval units/assets with maintenance and training schedules required by those units/assets. The initial focus of NST is aviation resource management where the highest level demand requirements are operational schedules for the Navys fleet of nuclear powered aircraft carriers. NST provides the infrastructure and fidelity to convert these high level operational demands into specific utilization projections for individual tactical aircraft, specifically the Department of the Navys F/A-18s. This capability will enable aviation resource providers to more efficiently manage the assignment, maintenance and modification of their assets. Furthermore, NST will more accurately project fleet-wide aviation inventory impacts resulting from scheduled operational and training patterns a critical capability for managing the Navys fleet of aging aircraft in a constrained budgetary environment.</p><p>NST is funded by the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) and Commander Naval Air Forces (CNAF).</p><p>The Role of Simulation in Optimizing the Lung Cancer Treatment Process at the VA Pittsburgh Healthcare SystemROBERT MONTE, Director Veterans Engineering Resource Center, VA Pittsburgh Healthcare SystemThe VA Pittsburgh Healthcare System (VAPHS) Lung Cancer Collaborative Team successfully competed to become one of eighteen Veterans Health Administration (VHA) sites selected from a national pool of applicants to participate in the VHA National Cancer Care Collaborative in March 2009. The VA Pittsburgh Healthcare System Lung Cancer Team was chartered to improved the timeliness and reliability of lung cancer care for Veterans in the Veterans Integrated Service Network 4 (VISN 4). Through the use of LEAN/Six Sigma and simulation the team significantly reduced the time from detection to diagnosis and treatment and achieved a return on investment by December 2009.</p><p>The VAPHS Veterans Engineering Resource Center (VERC) built a computerized simulation model of the process and tested scenario modifications to resources, activities, and process (sequential vs. parallel) to optimize the lung cancer care treatment algorithm.</p><p>In 2010 The VA Pittsburgh Healthcare System (VAPHS) Lung Cancer Collaborative Team won the VHA National Systems Redesign Champion Clinical Award , Hospital Association of Pennsylvania Award and VHA Federal Executive Board Chairmans Award. In 2011 the team was interviewed for an article to be published in US Medicine.</p></li><li><p>Simulation-Based Manpower Planning With Optimized Scheduling in aDistributed Multi-User EnvironmentMelanie De Grano, Advanced Analytics and Optimization, IBM Corporation The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) staffs and operates over 450 airports in the US. TSA has been using simulation to determine staffing requirements since 2005 and has recently completed a refresh of their manpower planning and scheduling system. The objectives of the effort were to replace the GPSS simulation engine, scheduling optimizer, and user-interface (UI) to take advantage of current network-based systems technologies. The previous system was distributed to the 200+ users as a stand alone application. This presented maintenance, security, and performance issues, especially during the annual budgeting process. This presentation focuses on the creation and integration of the simulation engine which was required to replicate and improve on the existing model accuracy and performance. Additional considerations included providing TSA an easy-to-use simulation platform to maintain the simulation engine, make model logic changes and data edits, and expand the use of simulation technology within TSA.</p><p>Strategic Resource and Portfolio Planning at Panda Restaurant GroupLEONARDYIP,SeniorVPandChiefInformationOfficer, Panda Restaurant Group, Inc. IT project management is one of the most challenging areas in IT functional operation. It is estimated that most IT projects are delayed and 200% over-budget. Given the slower economy, delivering critical projects on time and within budget demonstrates the tremendous value that an IT organization can provide. Critical projects are those that drive revenues, promote efficiency and productivity, or satisfy compliance requirements. With the help of discreet event simulation in ProModels Portfolio Simulator, Leonard and his team were able to achieve more than 85% successful project delivery in the first year of its implementation. Leonard and his team will share how they did that by carefully selecting projects based on ROI, and forecasting resource utilization prior to the beginning of each year.</p><p>USArmyOfficerFlowModelLT. COL. PAUL KUCIK, GENE LESINSKI and JOHN PINTER, US Military AcademyA descriptive, discrete- event simulation was created in ProModel to simulate the flow of newly commissioned Army officers from their commissioning source to their first unit of assignment. Specific focus is placed upon the Basic Officer Leadership (BOLC-B) training and required specialty training which is conducted between commissioning and arrival at the first unit. Using FY10s officer cohort data, what if analysis is conducted by varying BOLC-B training capacities and allocation of training seats to determine the effects on BOLC-B wait time, time from commissioning to first unit of assignment, and when in the ARFORGEN cycle individuals arrive at their unit.</p><p>Using Simulation to Reduce Elective Surgical Patient Census Variability AbstractEVAN S. FIELDSTONDivision of General Pediatrics, The Childrens Hospital of PhiladelphiaThe Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia, the first pediatric hospital in the United States, is ranked the #1 pediatric hospital by Parents magazine and is one of only eight on the prestigious U.S. News &amp; World Report Honor Roll for 2010. As part of our commitment to providing safe and patient centered care, we launched an initiative to reduce over-crowding in critical areas such as our Pediatric ICU and surgical Patient units. Simulation was a key part of helping us understand the complex relationships among surgical block scheduling, variability in surgical lengths of stay, seasonal changes in surgical Patients, and dozens of other factors.</p><p>Exploring Cost and Readiness Relationships Using Discrete Event Simulation to Power Rapid Insight ToolsPHIL A. FAHRINGER and HEATHER M. MILLERPrincipalOperationsResearcher/StaffOperationsResearcher,LockheedMartinCorporationHave you ever presented analysis to leaders only to have them ask What about? for a case that wasnt in the original assumptions? This talk will demonstrate how discrete event simulation using Process Simulator can be used to feed rapid insight tools for decision makers to enable them to rapidly explore the range of outcomes under alternate assumptions providing understanding of sensitivities and effective solutions. Specifically we will discuss how we have used process simulator to feed these tools for exploration of the relationships between cost and platform readiness over the platform lifecycle. </p><p>Capacity Modeling of a Dual Robot Photolithography Cluster Tool in the Semiconductor IndustryROLAND SCHELASIN, Modeling and Simulation Engineer, Texas InstrumentsSemiconductor wafer fabrication facilities are highly complex queuing networks with process flows consisting of hundreds of steps utilizing a wide array of sophisticated manufacturing equipment. Each piece of equipment itself incorporates multiple process steps. Static capacity and cycle time calculations can provide a sufficiently accurate prediction of factory equipment needs for production scenarios as long as equipment throughput is well understood. For serially processing equipment throughput can be calculated using a spreadsheet. However this methodology does not work for equipment types that process multiple steps and allow either reentrant process flows or parallel processing of multiple process flows with different recipes and/or step sequences. For such equipment types flexible simulation models can allow evaluation of configuration and process scenarios to more accurately determine throughput. This paper outlines the challenges associated with building...</p></li></ul>


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