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Seminar Session 15
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Predictive Analysis for Dam Safety
Lance HillEnergy Lead, Industry Workflows
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Changing Dynamics of the Energy Industry
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Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Safety
Design & constructionMaterial choices
Construction methods
Construction failures
Aging issuesSpillway gate failures
Concrete swelling
Concrete cracking
Natural disasters
Floods
Earthquakes
Understand
Improve understanding of failure process
Causes and how can failure be prevented
Predict
Predict failure under operating or special conditions (Floods, earthquake, etc.)
Mitigate
Simulate effects of mitigation measures
and pick most suitable ones
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12 As the large structures of concrete set, cracking can occur due to thermal effects
Assess construction parameters to minimize crackingJoint spacingLift heightsConstruction start timeConcrete placement temperaturesLift placement rate
Use 3D simulations for interactions between deformations in multiple directions
Identify and assess effects of various mitigation strategies
La Breña II Dam Largest RCC dam in Europe
ThermalBehavior
Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Design
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Temperature profiles in central monolith at different
stages of constructionTensile stresses – possibility of cracking
Simulation InsightBeginning construction in May (hotter air temperatures) resulted in greater tensile stresses showing that it might
be better to begin construction in November. Other parameters such
as materials could be altered to allow different construction times.
Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Design
Thermal Cracking Evaluation for La Breña II Dam during the Construction Process
F. Rueda, N. Camprubí and G. GarcíaAdvanced Design & Analysis Division, IDOM
2005 Abaqus Users’ Conference
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Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Aging
Design & constructionMaterial choices
Construction methods
Construction failures
Aging issuesSpillway gate failures
Concrete swelling
Concrete cracking
Natural disasters
Floods
Earthquakes
Understand
Improve understanding of failure process
Causes and how can failure be prevented
Predict
Predict failure under operating or special conditions (Floods, earthquake, etc.)
Mitigate
Simulate effects of mitigation measures
and pick most suitable ones
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132m dam built roughly 50 years ago
Concrete swelling causes deterioration and can be potentially
catastrophic for the structure concernedSwellingBehavior
Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Aging
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Simulation Insight
Calibrated and Validated!
Simulations can be used to predict behavior and assess safety and
develop mitigation methods
February
August
Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Aging
Analysis reproduces the complete time-history of the dam• Swelling model (thermal, moisture and stress-dependent)• Foundation stiffness • Foundation-Dam contact interaction
Concrete Swelling in Existing Dams Javier Rodríguez, Patricia González, Francisco Martínez, and Joaquín Martí
Principia2011 SIMULIA Customer Conference, Barcelona, Spain
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Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Disasters
Design & constructionMaterial choices
Construction methods
Construction failures
Aging issuesSpillway gate failures
Concrete swelling
Concrete cracking
Natural disasters
Floods
Earthquakes
Understand
Improve understanding of failure process
Causes and how can failure be prevented
Predict
Predict failure under operating or special conditions (Floods, earthquake, etc.)
Mitigate
Simulate effects of mitigation measures
and pick most suitable ones
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250ft high and 875ft longMade up of 19 blocks.
Center and taller blocks are keyed and grouted
Shorter blocks at ends are not keyed/grouted and so act independently
Natural Disaster Characteristics:
Shake, Flood and Survive
Big Creek Dam No7, California
Big Creek Dam No. 7 on the San Joaquin River about 50 miles northeast of Fresno, California
Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Disasters
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To evaluate Dam stability during maximum credible earthquake (MCE) and probable maximum flood (PMF)Eliminate assumptions made during prior 2D simulations
Include friction between blocks and dam-foundation interfaceDetailed modeling of dam foundation and canyon configurationInclude dam-reservoir interactions
Safety under seismic and flood load conditions
Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Disasters
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Block 14 shows maximum displacement (up to .6 inches) – most sensitive area of the dam under MCE conditions
THE INVESTIGATION OF A CONCRETE GRAVITY DAM IN A NARROW CANYON USING 3-D NONLINEAR ANALYSISMike Knarr, Matthew Muto, Nicolas von Gersdorff, John Dong, Ziyad Duron, and John Yen
31st Annual USSD Conference, San Diego, California, April 11-15, 2011
SimulationInsightsMCE
Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Disasters
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Realistic Simulation for Hydropower: Uncertainty
Design & constructionMaterial choices
Construction methods
Construction failures
Aging issuesSpillway gate failures
Concrete swelling
Concrete cracking
Natural disasters
Floods
Earthquakes
Understand
Improve understanding of failure process
Causes and how can failure be prevented
Predict
Predict failure under operating or special conditions (Floods, earthquake, etc.)
Mitigate
Simulate effects of mitigation measures
and pick most suitable ones
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Design Exploration for Hydropower: Uncertainty
Automated and Systematic Evaluation of Key Design Parameters to Estimate and Optimize for System Robustness under Uncertainty
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Realistic Simulation for Hydropower
Design & constructionMaterial choices
Construction methods
Construction failures
Aging issuesSpillway gate failures
Concrete swelling
Concrete cracking
Natural disasters
Floods
Earthquakes
Understand
Improve understanding of failure process
Causes and how can failure be prevented
Predict
Predict failure under operating or special conditions (Floods, earthquake, etc.)
Mitigate
Simulate effects of mitigation measures
and pick most suitable ones
16
3DS.
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