Predictions - Football League 120213

7/29/2019 Predictions - Football League 120213

1/16

Brighton Blackburn

Experimental361.com

Goals scored vs. conceded from open play down the right

41% 37%

Brighton are the Championships heaviest users

of the right flank, which pits them nicely against

the weaker left side of Blackburns defence

This is a tough one to call between two sides in similar form battling for supremacy on the

cusp of the play-offs. While Brighton look marginally more likely to prevail, a draw seems the

most probable result given the number these two sides have already served up this season.

Expected score: 1-1

9.4 12.3

With Brighton among the best sides in the

division at restricting chances and their visitors

among the worst, we could see a lot of traffic

towards the away goalmouth

Shots faced per game

Goals per match scored vs. conceded from outside the area

0.33 0.13The hosts excel at finding the net from range, but

that particular skill might not be of much use to

them against Blackburns alert rearguard


2/16

Hull Derby

Experimental361.com

Goals scored vs. conceded per game from headers

0.33 0.40

Hull offer one of the divisions greater aerial

threats and they should definitely be persisting

with high balls given their visitors susceptibility

I wrote Derbys prospects off in a similar match-up at the weekend but they took their few

chances well to earn a point. However Hull look better equipped to keep them at bay.

Expected score: 2-0

0.40 0.47

The Tigers are the Championships most

successful users of the right flank and find

themselves up against the defence with the

divisions weakest left side

Goals scored vs. conceded per game from open play down the right

Shots taken per game (home vs. away)

14.9 7.7

This match looks likely to be a Hull-dominated

affair no Championship side averages more

shots per match at home and Derby muster very

few of their own away


3/16

Middlesbrough Leeds

Experimental361.com

Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the left

16% 40%

The visitors have used the left wing to great effect

this season but the right side ofBoros defence

has been relatively tight, which could well blunt

their goal threat

Its been a horrible start to the year for Middlesbrough, who come into this match off the back

of 5 consecutive defeats, and while theyll have easier matches than this I still expect them to

get back to winning ways.

Expected score: 2-1

12.0 12.2

Leeds seem content with letting their opponents

do more of the attacking, and Middlesbrough look

happy to oblige

Shots taken vs. faced per game

Goals scored vs. conceded per game from outside the box

0.37 0.30Boro wont get many better chances to exploit

their long range accuracy than this, with Leeds

looking vulnerable from distance


4/16

Brentford Stevenage

Experimental361.com

Goals conceded vs. scored from open play down the right

35% 45%

While Brentford dont present any glaring

weaknesses for Stevenage to exploit, the visitors

best chance may be to probe down the right

where theyve been relatively successful

With these two teams in stuttering form this is a tough one to call, but Brentford look set to

have more opportunities to take the points here.

Expected score: 2-1

12.6 11.9

In addition to soaking up a lot of shots,

Stevenage dont take very many either, meaning

that this match will probably comprise mostly

home traffic

Shots taken vs. faced per match

Goals scored vs. conceded in the first & last 15 mins of matches

49% 49%Half of Brentfords goals come either early or late,

which is coincidentally when Stevenage concede

roughly half of theirs


5/16

Bury Sheff Utd

Experimental361.com


45% 35%

The Blades will carry the greater goal threat down

their right flank, with their hosts attack-minded left

side proving all too vulnerable to opponents

incursions

Despite a frustrating start to the year, the visitors are unbeaten in 5 away matches. Bury look

capable of giving them a good game, but I suspect not enough of one to outscore them over

90 minutes.

Expected score: 1-1

0.40 0.37

While both these sides are equally dangerous in

the air going forward, the visitors are noticeably

more vulnerable at the back

Headed goals scored vs. conceded per game

Goals scored vs. conceded from open play down the left

50% 33%Bury have depended heavily on their left flank for

goals this season and this is a strategy which

could pay off in this instance


6/16

Crewe Bournemouth

Experimental361.com

Goals scored vs. conceded in the 15 mins before half time

27% 21%Crewe often strike late in the first half, which is

where Bournemouth have a tendency to concede

While Bournemouth should prove too strong for Crewe, both sides look capable of scoring

here and it should be a close match.

Expected score: 1-2

12.2 13.1

Despite being the away side, the Cherries look

the more likely to dominate proceedings, testing

Crewes strong defensive record at home

Shots faced vs. taken per match

Goals scored vs. conceded from open play through the centre

58% 27%Both these sides create the majority of their goals

in the middle of the pitch, but the visitors police

the centre much more effectively


7/16

Doncaster MK Dons

Experimental361.com

Points won from winning vs. losing positions

96% 11%

If Doncaster score first then precedent suggests

that MK Dons wont be able to recover no

League 1 side is better at closing wins out than

Rovers while their visitors have struggled to

recover from going behind

Neither of these sides are in great form and this is a tougher match than either would want

during such a sequence, but Doncasters blip looks to be much less serious and they should

be capable of a win.

Expected score: 2-1

7.6 11.4

Doncaster dont allow many shots at their goal on

their own turf, but MK Dons tend to take the

game to their opponents irrespective of venue, so

there could be a heated battle in midfield

Shots faced (home) vs. taken (away) per match

Goals scored vs. conceded from open play down the left

30% 35%

Both sides tend to favour the centre when

attacking but Doncaster shouldnt overlook the left

wing, which aligns nicely with a weak point in their

visitors defence


8/16

Hartlepool Portsmouth

Experimental361.com

Goals conceded vs. scored from open play through the centre

37% 59%

The visitors tendency to channel their attacks

through the middle could also hinder them here,

with Hartlepool relatively solid in central positions

Portsmouth arguably wont have a better chance to end their 18 match winless run than

against the only side currently still beneath them in the table. The problem is that their hosts

are undergoing a revival and have only lost 1 in 5, so this could be the day they swap places.

Expected score: 1-0

13.4 5.4

The divisions most profligate home attack meets

its most porous away defence will either be

able to raise their game?

Shots per goal scored (home) vs. conceded (away)

Goals conceded vs. scored from set pieces

17% 42%Pompey have undeniably relied on set pieces for

goals this season but this is no guarantee of

success here


9/16

Scunthorpe Carlisle

Experimental361.com

Shots per goal scored vs. conceded

10.5 6.2

The home sides wasteful attack is up against one

of the divisions more porous defences itll be

interesting, but perhaps not pretty, to see which

gains the advantage

This doesnt appear to have the hallmarks of a classic encounter, but both sides are enjoying

their best run of form for a while and have a clear means of breaching the others defence. I

expect a score draw to be the most likely outcome.

Expected score: 1-1

0.42 0.40

The Iron have been heavily dependent on their

right wing for goals this season and theyd be

foolish not to move the ball in that direction given

their visitors shaky left side

Goals scored vs. conceded per match from open play down the right

Goals conceded vs. scored per match from set pieces

0.58 0.43

Dead ball situations havent favoured Scunthorpe

at either end this season, but Carlisle thrive on

them to the extent that their hosts should be very

nervous


10/16

Yeovil Preston

Experimental361.com

Shots faced per game (home vs. away)

7.7 8.6

The precedent is for these sides both to restrict

the others chances, which will emphasise the

need for sharpness in front of goal

Despite the Glovers impressive recent form which has lifted them to the periphery of the play-

off zone, playing to their strengths will give Preston a great chance of ending their current

malaise.

Expected score: 1-2

0.43 0.43

Prestons dead ball proficiency should be

worrying Yeovil given their vulnerability at set

pieces and in the air generally

Goals conceded vs. scored per game from set pieces

Goals scored vs. conceded in the 15 mins before half time

24% 23%Yeovils best chance of scoring is just before half

time, when theyve been particularly lively and

their visitors flat-footed so far this season


11/16

Morecambe Aldershot

Experimental361.com

Goals scored vs. conceded per match from open play through the centre

0.65 0.53

The home sides most promising means of

attacking is through the middle, where theyve

been carving out goals on a more regular basis

than their league position would suggest

This looks likely to be a low-scoring affair (cue goal avalanche) despite both sides having a

promising route to goal. Despite their lowly position, Aldershot have been relatively successful

on the road and should run Morecambe close.

Expected score: 1-1

42% 40%

The right flank offers the Shots an obvious

avenue of attack here if theyre prepared to take

it


Shots faced vs. taken per game

11.9 7.8

Morecambes defence is used to taking a

battering, but their visitors are one of League 2s

most shot-shy teams will this respite enable the

hosts to push further forward?


12/16

Oxford Fleetwood

Experimental361.com

Proportion of time spent losing by 1 goal

13% 10%

These two sides spend very little time being a

goal down, although in Oxfords case this has

tended to be due to them conceding again,

suggesting they leave themselves overly exposed

when chasing a game

Oxford have struggled for goals recently and their recent 3-0 defeat in the reverse fixture

doesnt bode well for them here.

Expected score: 0-2

0.43 0.43

Neither of these sides has defended set pieces

particularly well this season, but the visitors are

significantly more effective at converting their

own

Goals conceded vs. scored per match from set pieces

Shots per goal scored vs. conceded

7.4 10.6Oxford have one of the more clinical attacks in

League 2 but theyll have their work cut out trying

to breach Fleetwoods resolute defence


13/16

Southend Cheltenham

Experimental361.com

Goals per game conceded vs. scored from set pieces

0.20 0.48

Cheltenham have relied on corners more than any

other Football League side this season, but

theyre up against one of League 2s better drilled

defences

With both sides in the thick of the promotion contest this could be a tense encounter, but with

Cheltenham in poor form this looks like the wrong time to be playing a side who look capable

of nullifying their game plan.

Expected score: 1-0

13.4 12.8

The numbers suggest that well see a dominant

home performance, as both these sides play

much more freely at home than away

Shots taken (home) vs. faced (away) per match

Shots conceded vs. scored from inside the 6 yard box

33% 40%If Cheltenham can work the ball in close to the

Shrimpers goal then they stand a good chance of

getting on the score sheet


14/16

Torquay Rotherham

Experimental361.com


32% 38%

If the visitors continue to bias their attacks

towards the left then they stand a good chance of

breaching the Gulls rearguard

With Rene Howe back in the side and prodigal poacher Elliot Benyon also returning to the

club, the Gulls should be capable of getting on the score sheet. The problem is that their

visitors dont look likely to draw a blank either and have won 4 of their last 5 away matches.

Expected score: 1-2

12.9 13.1

The Gulls have League 2s busiest defence and

their visitors all-action approach looks set to

keep them even busier than usual

Shots faced vs. taken per game

Goals scored vs. conceded in 6 yard box

39% 23%Torquay have profited from getting the ball into the

6 yard box but are likely to find this a trickier task

against the Millers


15/16

Wycombe Bradford

Experimental361.com

Shots taken vs. faced per game

8.2 7.8

If Bradford have their mind on the job at hand

then Wycombe will still need to make the most of

their goalscoring chances, as theyre unlikely to

get many

The distraction of the cup seems to have robbed the Bantams of their edge lately, with their

form nosediving just as Wycombes is soaring. I suspect that theyll be good enough for a

point however.

Expected score: 1-1

38% 43%

Much depends on how hard their players will be

pushing with the League Cup Final approaching,

but if Bradford can get the ball in close then

Wycombe could struggle to keep a clean sheet

Goals conceded vs. scored inside the 6 yard box


14% 52%Bradfords main route to goal is the left flank, but

Wycombe look more capable of choking their

supply line than most

E i l361


16/16

York Gillingham

Experimental361.com

Shots taken per game home vs. away

9.1 10.4

York create fewer chances than most at home so

could find themselves on the back foot for long

spells against one of the divisions more

aggressive travellers

York managed a draw in the reverse fixture but are now winless in 6, the last 2 being heavy

defeats, which doesnt seem conducive to overcoming opponents with the best away record in

the division.

Expected score: 0-2

6.2 7.0

Gillinghams lofty position has been partly due to

ruthlessness in front of goal and theyre up

against one of the divisions more porous

defences here

Shots per goal conceded vs. scored

Matches in which failed to score vs. kept clean sheet

35% 40%

Gillinghams defence has been immense this

season and theyll be targeting a clean sheet

against a front line which has drawn a blank on

numerous occasions

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Predictions - Football League 120213