Predicting Solar Magnetic Field at Earth

Dusan OdstrcilGeorge Mason University & NASA/GSFC/Space Weather Laboratory

MURI/NADIR Workshop Boulder, CO October 27-28, 2010

Background Solar Wind by FR Coronal Maps

MAS and WSA coronal FR maps provide Br only

ENLIL introduces Bphi at the inner boundary

Initially Btheta = 0; weak Bz by stream interaction

and seasonal effect

Bz in Simulations with FR Maps

Transient Disturbances

Modeling of the origin of CMEs is still in the research phases and it is not expected that real events can be routinely simulated in near future. Therefore, we have developed an intermediate modeling system which uses the WSA coronal maps, fitted coronagraph observations, specifies 3D ejecta, and drives 3D numerical code ENLIL.

IMF Draped by an ICME

“External” Bz Periods – Shock Compression

Shock to north, positive IMF: + Shock to north, negative IMF: -

Shock to south, positive IMF: - Shock to south, negative IMF: +

“External” Bz Periods – ICME Draping

Above ICME center, positive IMF: - + Above ICME center, negative IMF: + -

Below ICME center, positive IMF: + - Below ICME center, negative IMF: - +

Bz in Simulations with FR Maps and Cone

Bz in Simulations with FR Maps and Cone

May 12, 1997 – Interplanetary CME

MAS coronal model (PSI) ENLIL heliospheric model (GMU-NASA /GSFC)

Self-consistent end-to-end numerical simulation of space weather event(NSF/CISM effort in progress)

2008 April 26 CME with Rope Model

( Thernisien et al., 2009 ) ( WSA-1.6-GONG-CR2069 )

Launching Flux-Rope-Like Structure (2005-05-13)

Flux-Rope-Like Structure – Hydrodynamic

Flux-Rope-Like Structure – With 2D Magnetic Field

High-Resolution ICME Simulation – HD

High-Resolution Simulation

Conclusion

Solar Wind – Fully-automatic forecasting (Weak Bz events only)

ICMEs/fitted coronagraph observations – Semi-automatic forecasting (Moderate Bz by draping and shock compression)

ICMEs/self-consistent eruption– In active research (strong Bz)

ICMEs/semi-empirical flux ropes – Semi-automatic forecasting might ne possible (strong Bz)