Pre-2020 Expectations: Bali Road Map 2012 ecbi Oxford Seminar Summary of Fellows’ Colloquium

european capacity building initiative ecbiPre-2020 Expectations: Bali Road Map

2012 ecbi Oxford Seminar

Summary of Fellows’ Colloquium

european capacity building initiativeinitiative européenne de renforcem

ent des capacités ecbi

for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiationspour un renforcement durable des capacités en appui aux négociations internationales sur les changements climatiques

european capacity building initiative ecbi

What is necessary to implement the Outcomes of the AWG-LCA and the AWG-KP? AWG-LCA (pre-2020)• 1.b.i : tons of reduction, what is the role of IAR in fulfilment

of those numbers?• 1.b.ii common reporting format for support?• Finance: scaling up of financial flows, MRV of support• Adaptation: Finalising the linkages between the (new)

institutional arrangements• Loss and Damage: What shape of outcome? What next after

the Report?• Technology: How to deal with IPR (pre 2020)?

Implementation of Bali Roadmap


AWG-KP (post-2012)• EU QELRO: Is it 30%? If not, why not?• Surplus Assigned Amount Units: What to do?• Duration of 2CP• Midterm Review: Legal implications?• Entry into force provisions: Time-scale? Role of

Provisional Application etc.?• Eligibility to participate in KP mechanisms

How do we get there (in Bangkok)?What to do if we don’t?

Implementation of Bali Roadmap

european capacity building initiative ecbiPost-2020 Ideas for the ADP

2012 ecbi Oxford Seminar

Summary of Fellows’ Colloquium

european capacity building initiativeinitiative européenne de renforcem

ent des capacités ecbi

for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiationspour un renforcement durable des capacités en appui aux négociations internationales sur les changements climatiques


ADP post-2020Options of EngagementSpectrum of Obligations?How does operationalizing equity, CBDR/RC relate to commitments?Key elements of KP which are to be taken over into the ADP outcome?How to deal with the US?


Developed Country: Option A Binding (Obligation) Non-binding (Aspiration)

Domestically Internationally

Mitigation Targets

Unsupported Quantitative Absolute Assigned Amounts, Intensity

Relative to baseline Assigned Amounts, Intensity Qualitative PAMs

SupportedQuantitative Absolute Assigned Amounts, Intensity


n/a

MRV

KP rules ICA rules IAR rules

New ex ante Accounting Rules n/a

Compliance Regime

n/a

Finance Assessed Contributions Voluntary Contribution

Options to Engage


Developed Country: Option B Binding (Obligation) Non-binding (Aspiration)


Mitigation Targets





n/a

MRV

KP rules ICA rules IAR rules


Compliance Regime

n/a

Finance Assessed Contributions Voluntary Contribution

Options to Engage


Developing Country: Option A Binding (Obligation) Non-binding (Aspiration)


Mitigation Targets


Relative to baseline Assigned Amounts, Intensity

Qualitative PAMs



n/a

MRV

KP rules ICA rules

IAR rules

New ex ante Accounting Rules

n/a

Compliance Regime

n/a

FinanceAssessed Contributions

Voluntary Contribution

Options to Engage


Developing Country: Option B Binding (Obligation) Non-binding (Aspiration)


Mitigation Targets



Qualitative PAMs



Qualitative PAMs n/a

MRV

KP rules

ICA rules IAR rules


Compliance Regime

n/a

FinanceAssessed Contributions

Voluntary Contribution

Options to Engage


Aristotle’s principle of formal equality:

“Treat like cases as like”

Nicomachean Ethics, V.3. 1131a10-b15; Politics, III.9.1280 a8-15, III. 12. 1282b18-23

Equity on the Durban Platform

Full Aristotelian Conception

Descriptively equal cases ought to be treated equally, descriptively unequal cases ought to be treated unequally, according to their degree of inequality.


Capability as Ability to Pay − A Taxation Model

Capability = Gross Capability minus Capability AdjustmentCk = GCk − Cak [cu : capacity unit]

taxable income = gross income minus tax allowances

Gross Capability Axioms (gdp = GDP/cap)

If gdpk = gdpm then GCk : GCm = GDPk : GDPm

If GDPk = GDPm then GCk : GCm ~ gdpk : gdpm

Oxford Gross CapabilityGross Capability = Progressively weighted National Income:OGCk ~ γk × GDPk, with γk = gdpk / gdpworld [cu/$]


$0 $5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000

-$1,000

$1,000

$3,000

$5,000

$7,000

$9,000

$11,000

$13,000

$15,000GDP (2009 $ PPP)

GDP ($PPP, 2009) per capita$0 $5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000 Gross Capabilities (δ = 1)

GDP ($PPP, 2009) per capita

Gross Capability Examples OGCk = (γk)δ × GDPk, δ ≥ 0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

US (γ = 4.3)

EU; Japan (γ = 3.0)

γδ

China (γ = 0.6)

India (γ = 0.29)δ

Degrees of progressivity


Oxford Measure − Capability Adjustment

Capability = Gross Capability minus Capability AdjustmentAdjustment for what?The magnitude of the domestic poverty problemMeasuring the size of the poverty problem − two dimensions:• Poverty Headcount PHk [number of poor people]

• Poverty Intensity Index: PIk [scalar]

The magnitude of the poverty problem: (PHk × PIk)• Global Poverty Capability Allowance Π [cu/person]

Poverty Capability Adjustment: PCAk = Π × (PHk × PIk) [cu]

Multidimensional Poverty Index: MPIk [scalar]

PCAk = Π × Pk × MPIk , with Pk = population


$0 $5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000

Gross Capability (δ = 1)

GDP ($PPP, 2009) per capita

Gross and Net Capability Examples

$0 $5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000

Gross Capability (δ = 0)

$0 $10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Net Capability (δ = 1; Π = 3×ZCALDC)

Reference level


Net Capability: Sensitivity to Choice of Poverty Allowance Π

Cap

abili

ty In

tens

ity (O

CM

k /G

DP k)

Poverty Allowance Π = ZCALDC ×

LDC

1 2 3 4 5 6

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%

104%

106%

0 1 2 3 4 5

-300%

-200%

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

Slope = Poverty Intensity (Poverty Headcount × Poverty Intensity)/GDP

(PHk × PIk )/GDPk


Oxford Measure − Sample Capabilities I

Non-zero C

apability

Zero Capability

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000 GDP ($PPP, 2009) per capita

Cap

abili

ty

EU

US

China

South Africa

Brazil

IndiaLDC aggr.

Russia

Saudi

JapanCanada

AustraliaSwitzerland UAE

δ = 1, Π = 3 × ZCALDC


Operationalising “Differentiated Responsibilities”− for global average temperature increase

http://www.match-info.net/ http://unfccc.int/methods_and_science/other_methodological_issues/items/1038.php


1892 1901 1910 1919 1928 1937 1946 1955 1964 1973 1982 1991 2000 -

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Global Emissions

1892 1901 1910 1919 1928 1937 1946 1955 1964 1973 1982 1991 2000 -

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Global Oceanic Absorptions

Annual Oceanic Absorption

1892 1901 1910 1919 1928 1937 1946 1955 1964 1973 1982 1991 2000 -

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

Global ‘Responsible’ Emissions

Annual Oceanic Absorption Annual Responsible Emissions

The MATCH methodology


Historic Responsibilities 1980-2005

US EU25 China India WorldCO2 Gt % Gt % Gt % Gt % Gt %

Historic Emissions 413 20 374 18 227 11 81 4 2,098 100Responsible Emissions 368 28 267 21 39 3 0 0 1,300 100Surplus Allowances 0 0 0 42

189018941898190219061910191419181922192619301934193819421946195019541958196219661970197419781982198619901994199820022006201020142018202220262030

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

India (cumulative)

Resp. Allowances Emissions

Responsibility Headroom

“Responsibility Headroom”

Documents

Pre-2020 Expectations: Bali Road Map 2012 ecbi Oxford Seminar Summary of Fellows’ Colloquium