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PPIC Statewide Survey:Californians and Their Government
Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, David Kordus, Lunna Lopes
Supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle
March 24, 2016
Outline
2
PPIC Statewide Surveys Election and national issues State and fiscal issues Conclusions
PPIC Statewide Survey mission
3
Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions
Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion
Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates– 320,000+ Californians since 1998– 150+ general, issue, and regional surveys
Californians and Their Government
4
General series funded by The James Irvine Foundation Election and national issues
– Preferences in presidential and U.S. Senate primaries– Approval ratings and role of government
State and fiscal issues– Approval ratings and overall mood– State and local tax system, state spending and revenues
Telephone interviews, March 6–15, 2016– 50% landline, 50% cell phone– 1,710 adults, ± 3.6% margin of error– 1,039 likely voters, ± 4.4% margin of error
Outline
5
PPIC Statewide Surveys Election and national issues State and fiscal issues Conclusions
Satisfaction with choices of presidential candidates
6
65
46
34
0
20
40
60
80
Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Mar 2016
%
Democrat Republican Independent
In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for U.S. president in 2016?
Democratic presidential primary preferences
7
48
22
6358
4141
63
2735
46
0
20
40
60
80
Alllikely voters
Age 18to 44
Age 45and older
Latinos Whites
%
Hillary ClintonBernie Sanders
If the 2016 Democratic primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?
Republican presidential primary preferences
8
Republican primary likely voters only
Change with Rubio supporters’ second choices included
Including candidate Rubio
Excludingcandidate Rubio*
Donald Trump 38% 38% +0
Ted Cruz 19 27 +8
John Kasich 12 14 +2
Marco Rubio 12 — —
Someone else 10 11 +1
Don’t know 9 9 +0
*Totals recalculated to show Rubio supporters’ second choice
Satisfaction with choices of Senate candidates
9
47
64
3138
30
17
4135
0
20
40
60
80
All likely voters Dem Rep Ind
%
SatisfiedNot satisfied
In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for U.S. Senate in 2016?
U.S. Senate primary preferences
10
26%
17%
9%6%
11%
31%Kamala Harris
Loretta Sanchez
Tom Del Beccaro
Duf Sundheim
Someone else
Don't know
If the June primary for U.S. senator were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?
Likely voters
Approval of federal elected officials
11
59
24
0
20
40
60
80
Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
%
President ObamaU.S. Congress
Outlook for the nation
12
40
57
10
2734
48
56
29
3845
0
20
40
60
80
All adults Dem Rep Ind Likely voters
%
Think things are headed inthe right directionExpect good times financially
Income inequality: gap between rich and poor
13
62
75
83
77
69
0 20 40 60 80 100
Rep
Ind
Dem
Likely voters
All adults
Do you think the gap between the rich and the poor in the U.S. is getting larger, getting smaller, or has it stayed the same?
% saying getting larger
%
Income inequality: role of government
14
68
81
34
55 58
0
20
40
60
80
100
All adults Dem Rep Ind Likely voters
%
Should the government do more to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in this country, or is this something the government should not be doing?
% saying government should do more
Size of government
15
57
3839
53
0
20
40
60
80
California United States*
%
Bigger government,more servicesSmaller government,fewer services
If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services?
*Pew Research Center, September 2015
Government regulation of business
16
3423
66
42 40
6071
31
55 57
0
20
40
60
80
100
All adults Dem Rep Ind Likely voters
%
Government regulation of businessdoes more harm than goodGovernment regulation of business isnecessary
Please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view, even if neither is exactly right: government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest; or government regulation of business does more harm than good.
Outline
17
PPIC Statewide Surveys Election and national issues State and fiscal issues Conclusions
Approval of state elected officials
18
5144
0
20
40
60
80
Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
%
Governor Brown California Legislature
Outlook for the state
19
50%
43%
8%
Right DirectionWrong directionDon't know
Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?
51%40%
9%
Good times
Bad times
Don't know
Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?
All adults
Fairness of state and local tax system
20
8%
48%25%
16%
3%
Very fair
Moderately fair
Not too fair
Not at all fair
Don't know
Overall, how fair do you think our present state and local tax system is—would you say it is very fair, moderately fair, not too fair, or not at all fair?
All adults
Personal tax burden
21
32 2444 43
34
2424
3422
27
0
20
40
60
80
100
All adults Dem Rep Ind Likely voters
%
Somewhat more
Much more
When you combine all of the taxes you pay to state and local governments, do you feel that you pay much more than you should, somewhat more than you should, about the right amount, or less than you should?
State budget situation
22
48
0
20
40
60
80
100
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16
%
Do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?
% saying big problem
Extending the Proposition 30 income tax increase
23
61
77
37
5258
35
20
58
42 38
0
20
40
60
80
100
All adults Dem Rep Ind Likely voters
%
Favor
Oppose
As you may know, voters passed Proposition 30 in November 2012. It increased taxes on earnings over $250,000 until 2018 and sales taxes by one-quarter cent until 2016. Do you favor or oppose extending for 12 years the tax increase on earnings over $250,000 to fund education and healthcare?
Importance of four major areas to California’s future
24
80
6254
34
0
20
40
60
80
100
Publichigher education
Maintenance ofroads and bridges
Deltatunnels
High-speedrail
%
% saying very important
How important is … to the future quality of life and economic vitality of California?
Funding priority for surface transportation
25
34
23
50
3830
21
3337
25 28
38
51
0
20
40
60
80
All adults CentralValley
San FranciscoBay Area
LosAngeles
Orange/San Diego
InlandEmpire
%
Public bus and transitFreeways and highways
Which of the following types of surface transportation projects do you think should have the top priority for additional state funding: freeways and highways, public bus and transit systems, carpool lanes, or local streets and roads?
Reponse to the current drought
26
49 41 4556
47 52
3844 39
3441 30
10 13 12 7 8 13
0
20
40
60
80
100
All adults CentralValley
San FranciscoBay Area
LosAngeles
Orange/San Diego
InlandEmpire
%
Too much
Rightamount
Not enough
Overall, do you think that the people in your part of California are doing too much, the right amount, or not enough to respond to the current drought in California?
High-speed rail system
27
69
50
38
54
45
29
47
59
44
52
0 20 40 60 80
Rep
Ind
Dem
Likely voters
All adults
FavorOppose
As you may know, California voters passed a $10 billion state bond in 2008.… Do you favor or oppose building a high-speed rail system in California?
%
Public higher education
28
59
79
6772
4439
21
3327
53
0
20
40
60
80
All adults Asians Blacks Latinos Whites
%
College education is necessaryThere are many ways to succeed
Do you think that a college education is necessary for a person to be successful in today’s work world, or do you think that there are many ways to succeed in today’s work world without a college education?
Outline
29
PPIC Statewide Surveys Election and national issues State and fiscal issues Conclusions
Conclusions
30
Striking partisan differences in satisfaction with candidate choices in presidential and senate primaries
Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton garner the most support in presidential primaries
Democrats Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez lead the top-two primary for the U.S. Senate; nearly one in three are undecided
Democrats and Republicans are divided on the outlook for the nation and on both the appropriate role and size of government
A majority of Californians and likely voters favor extending the Proposition 30 tax increase on earnings over $250,000 to fund education and healthcare
Most Californians view increased spending on the maintenance of roads, highways, and bridges as very important to the state’s future
PPIC Statewide Survey:Californians and Their Government
Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, David Kordus, Lunna Lopes
Supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle
March 24, 2016
Notes on the use of these slides
32
These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact:
Dean Bonner ([email protected]; 415-291-4497)
Thank you for your interest in this work.