PPIC Statewide Survey:Californians and Their Government

Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, David Kordus, Lunna Lopes

Supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle

March 24, 2016

Outline

2

PPIC Statewide Surveys Election and national issues State and fiscal issues Conclusions

PPIC Statewide Survey mission

3

Provide timely, relevant, nonpartisan data on political, social, and economic opinions

Inform and improve state policymaking, raise awareness, encourage discussion

Provide a voice for all Californians in important state policy debates– 320,000+ Californians since 1998– 150+ general, issue, and regional surveys

Californians and Their Government

4

General series funded by The James Irvine Foundation Election and national issues

– Preferences in presidential and U.S. Senate primaries– Approval ratings and role of government

State and fiscal issues– Approval ratings and overall mood– State and local tax system, state spending and revenues

Telephone interviews, March 6–15, 2016– 50% landline, 50% cell phone– 1,710 adults, ± 3.6% margin of error– 1,039 likely voters, ± 4.4% margin of error

Outline

5

PPIC Statewide Surveys Election and national issues State and fiscal issues Conclusions

Satisfaction with choices of presidential candidates

6

65

46

34

0

20

40

60

80

Dec 2015 Jan 2016 Mar 2016

%

Democrat Republican Independent

In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for U.S. president in 2016?

Democratic presidential primary preferences

7

48

22

6358

4141

63

2735

46

0

20

40

60

80

Alllikely voters

Age 18to 44

Age 45and older

Latinos Whites

%

Hillary ClintonBernie Sanders

If the 2016 Democratic primary for president were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?

Republican presidential primary preferences

8

Republican primary likely voters only

Change with Rubio supporters’ second choices included

Including candidate Rubio

Excludingcandidate Rubio*

Donald Trump 38% 38% +0

Ted Cruz 19 27 +8

John Kasich 12 14 +2

Marco Rubio 12 — —

Someone else 10 11 +1

Don’t know 9 9 +0

*Totals recalculated to show Rubio supporters’ second choice

Satisfaction with choices of Senate candidates

9

47

64

3138

30

17

4135

0

20

40

60

80

All likely voters Dem Rep Ind

%

SatisfiedNot satisfied

In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the election for U.S. Senate in 2016?

U.S. Senate primary preferences

10

26%

17%

9%6%

11%

31%Kamala Harris

Loretta Sanchez

Tom Del Beccaro

Duf Sundheim

Someone else

Don't know

If the June primary for U.S. senator were being held today, and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?

Likely voters

Approval of federal elected officials

11

59

24

0

20

40

60

80

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16

%

President ObamaU.S. Congress

Outlook for the nation

12

40

57

10

2734

48

56

29

3845

0

20

40

60

80

All adults Dem Rep Ind Likely voters

%

Think things are headed inthe right directionExpect good times financially

Income inequality: gap between rich and poor

13

62

75

83

77

69

0 20 40 60 80 100

Rep

Ind

Dem

Likely voters

All adults

Do you think the gap between the rich and the poor in the U.S. is getting larger, getting smaller, or has it stayed the same?

% saying getting larger

%

Income inequality: role of government

14

68

81

34

55 58

0

20

40

60

80

100

All adults Dem Rep Ind Likely voters

%

Should the government do more to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in this country, or is this something the government should not be doing?

% saying government should do more

Size of government

15

57

3839

53

0

20

40

60

80

California United States*

%

Bigger government,more servicesSmaller government,fewer services

If you had to choose, would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services?

*Pew Research Center, September 2015

Government regulation of business

16

3423

66

42 40

6071

31

55 57

0

20

40

60

80

100

All adults Dem Rep Ind Likely voters

%

Government regulation of businessdoes more harm than goodGovernment regulation of business isnecessary

Please indicate which statement comes closest to your own view, even if neither is exactly right: government regulation of business is necessary to protect the public interest; or government regulation of business does more harm than good.

Outline

17

PPIC Statewide Surveys Election and national issues State and fiscal issues Conclusions

Approval of state elected officials

18

5144

0

20

40

60

80

Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16

%

Governor Brown California Legislature

Outlook for the state

19

50%

43%

8%

Right DirectionWrong directionDon't know

Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

51%40%

9%

Good times

Bad times

Don't know

Turning to economic conditions in California, do you think that during the next 12 months we will have good times financially or bad times?

All adults

Fairness of state and local tax system

20

8%

48%25%

16%

3%

Very fair

Moderately fair

Not too fair

Not at all fair

Don't know

Overall, how fair do you think our present state and local tax system is—would you say it is very fair, moderately fair, not too fair, or not at all fair?

All adults

Personal tax burden

21

32 2444 43

34

2424

3422

27

0

20

40

60

80

100

All adults Dem Rep Ind Likely voters

%

Somewhat more

Much more

When you combine all of the taxes you pay to state and local governments, do you feel that you pay much more than you should, somewhat more than you should, about the right amount, or less than you should?

State budget situation

22

48

0

20

40

60

80

100

Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16

%

Do you think the state budget situation in California—that is, the balance between government spending and revenues—is a big problem, somewhat of a problem, or not a problem for the people of California today?

% saying big problem

Extending the Proposition 30 income tax increase

23

61

77

37

5258

35

20

58

42 38

0

20

40

60

80

100

All adults Dem Rep Ind Likely voters

%

Favor

Oppose

As you may know, voters passed Proposition 30 in November 2012. It increased taxes on earnings over $250,000 until 2018 and sales taxes by one-quarter cent until 2016. Do you favor or oppose extending for 12 years the tax increase on earnings over $250,000 to fund education and healthcare?

Importance of four major areas to California’s future

24

80

6254

34

0

20

40

60

80

100

Publichigher education

Maintenance ofroads and bridges

Deltatunnels

High-speedrail

%

% saying very important

How important is … to the future quality of life and economic vitality of California?

Funding priority for surface transportation

25

34

23

50

3830

21

3337

25 28

38

51

0

20

40

60

80

All adults CentralValley

San FranciscoBay Area

LosAngeles

Orange/San Diego

InlandEmpire

%

Public bus and transitFreeways and highways

Which of the following types of surface transportation projects do you think should have the top priority for additional state funding: freeways and highways, public bus and transit systems, carpool lanes, or local streets and roads?

Reponse to the current drought

26

49 41 4556

47 52

3844 39

3441 30

10 13 12 7 8 13

0

20

40

60

80

100

All adults CentralValley

San FranciscoBay Area

LosAngeles

Orange/San Diego

InlandEmpire

%

Too much

Rightamount

Not enough

Overall, do you think that the people in your part of California are doing too much, the right amount, or not enough to respond to the current drought in California?

High-speed rail system

27

69

50

38

54

45

29

47

59

44

52

0 20 40 60 80

Rep

Ind

Dem

Likely voters

All adults

FavorOppose

As you may know, California voters passed a $10 billion state bond in 2008.… Do you favor or oppose building a high-speed rail system in California?

%

Public higher education

28

59

79

6772

4439

21

3327

53

0

20

40

60

80

All adults Asians Blacks Latinos Whites

%

College education is necessaryThere are many ways to succeed

Do you think that a college education is necessary for a person to be successful in today’s work world, or do you think that there are many ways to succeed in today’s work world without a college education?

Outline

29

PPIC Statewide Surveys Election and national issues State and fiscal issues Conclusions

Conclusions

30

Striking partisan differences in satisfaction with candidate choices in presidential and senate primaries

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton garner the most support in presidential primaries

Democrats Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez lead the top-two primary for the U.S. Senate; nearly one in three are undecided

Democrats and Republicans are divided on the outlook for the nation and on both the appropriate role and size of government

A majority of Californians and likely voters favor extending the Proposition 30 tax increase on earnings over $250,000 to fund education and healthcare

Most Californians view increased spending on the maintenance of roads, highways, and bridges as very important to the state’s future

PPIC Statewide Survey:Californians and Their Government

Mark Baldassare, Dean Bonner, David Kordus, Lunna Lopes

Supported with funding from The James Irvine Foundation and the PPIC Donor Circle

March 24, 2016

Notes on the use of these slides

32

These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact:

Dean Bonner (bonner@ppic.org; 415-291-4497)

Thank you for your interest in this work.