Powered by

Operation FutureGermany 2020

Scenario Study

Operation Future „Germany 2020“

© UNITY, WJD

Basic Principles of the Scenario Technique

Multiple future

Scenarios

today future horizon

time

Networked thinking

We can consider more than one development of an influence factor.

“A scenario is generally understood as a description of a possible future situation which is

based on a complex net of influence factors as well as on the presentation of a progression which from the present point of view could lead to this situation.“

Riskpropensity

Competi-tiveness

Economicgrowth

Price stability

PurchasingpowerWage

levelProduct stability

Staff motivation

Technical efficiency

Forms of work organisation

We have to consider thecross linking of influence factors.

© UNITY, WJD

Analyzing cross impacts,identifying key factorsThe scenario field includes a cross linked system of influence factors.

The relevant influence factors (keyfactors) will be determined with the help of cross linked analysis.

Characterizing development potentialsMost of the key factors have lots of possibilities to progress (future projections).

These are to be described generally comprehensible and precisely and to be justified, if required.

Identifying influence factorsThe Company (field of operation) is incorporated into a complex systemof influence factors.

These describe the environment of a company (scenario field).

today future

today future

Sector environment

sector

global environment

• politics• economy• society• technology• environment

• markets• substitutes• distributors• complements

Company

Scenario Based Strategic Management (1/5)Influence factors and possible developments

© UNITY, WJD

today future

today future

Identifying consistent future images (scenarios) The consistency rating of paired future projections leads to scenarios, i.e. combinations of future projections which fit well together.

Describing scenarios »in prose«Writing out the scenarios.

This is based upon the descriptions of future projects.

Scenario 2:›› An agile medium sized business uses the chances of diversity‹‹

Scenario 1:›› During a depression everything is centered about the costs ‹‹

...World economy is affected by great trade blocs like the EU. Protectionism dominates and depressive tendencies emerge. At the business location in Germany grave cost disadvantages still exist.

Scenario Based Strategic Management (2/5)Possible situations in the future

Characterizing development potentialsMost of the key factors have lots of possibilities to progress (future projections).

These are to be described generally comprehensible and precisely and to be justified, if required.

© UNITY, WJD

Identifying the effects of the scenariosWhat has to be done in the fields of operation to give consideration to the scenarios?

Describing scenarios »in prose«

Writing out the scenarios.

This is based upon the description of the future projections.

Market services

Production

Distribution channels

Pre-sales support

After-sales support

E-business

Staff qualification

Field of operation

Scenario 1

Depression

Effects Consequences

and steps

Scenario field

CompaniesBusiness sectorProductsScenario 2:

›› An agile medium sized business uses the chances of diversity‹‹

Scenario 1:›› During a depression everything is centered about the costs ‹‹

...World economy is affected by great trade blocs like the EU. Protectionism dominates and depressive tendencies emerge. At the business location in Germany grave cost disadvantages still exist.

Strategicalternative A

Strategicalternative B

Future-robustoptions

Determination of optionsIdentification of the course of action which is based on several scenarios(future-robust options).

Detecting alternative bundles of options (strategic alternatives) which are based on specific scenarios.

Scenario Based Strategic Management (3/5)Effects regarding the field of operation

Scenario 2

Agile business

© UNITY, WJD

Strategicalternative A

Strategicalternative B

future-robustoptions

Determination of scenario referenceWhat is the most probable scenario due to today‘s noticeable development?

Identification of indicators for the strategic controlling.

Developing a strategyChoice of scenarios which are probable from today‘s view. Based upon indicator characteristics.

Verbalization of a strategy as well as an eventual strategy based upon strategic options.

Today‘sposition

Strategic competencesStrategic position of

success (SEP)

Strategic position

Strategic business units

Based on competences: which strategic position should the company strive for?

Which strategic competences are necessary for the occupation

aimed at?

Influence on the field of operation

Scenario 2

Scenario 1

„Probability“

Identification of the

indicators of strategic controlling

Scenario Based Strategic Management (4/5)Strategy development

Determination of optionsIdentification of the course of action which is based on several scenarios(future-robust options).

Detecting alternative bundles of options (strategic alternatives) which are based on specific scenarios.

Mission

© UNITY, WJD

Strategy controllingMonitoring the indicators of the scenario field and registration of so- called weak signals (early education system).

Rotational revision of the premises/ estimates of strategic planning.

Implementation of strategyInterlocking the strategic and the operative planning with the help of operationalizing the objectives - e.g. using Balanced Scorecard (BSC).

Controlling the implementation of procedures.

Trend report

Customer

Financial

Process

Learning & growth

Vision and

Strategy

Targets

KPI

Measures

Person in

charge

Scenario Based Strategic Management (5/5)Implementation of strategy

Strategic competencesStrategic position of

success (SEP)

Strategic position

Strategic business units

Based on competences which strategic position should the company strive for?

Which strategic competences are necessary for the occupation

aimed at?

Developing a strategyChoice of scenarios which are probable from today‘s view. Based upon indicator characteristics.

Verbalization of a strategy as well as an eventual strategy based upon strategic options.

Today‘sposition

Mission

© UNITY, WJD

4 Future scenarios

© UNITY, WJD

Public voice in 2020“I think it is great what opportunities myself and my children have these days. For me personally it has always beeen important to manage job and family. Today, however, the kids are staying with their grandparentes as we are heiping reconstruct the local communications.“

Annabell Klein, 33, innovation manager, automotive

Scenario charateristics:

renaissance of families – with priority on values

ordoliberalism – liberties are used with care

Lifelong learning – knowledge becomes common good

Everyone helps everyone – voluntary work has a high value

Sustainable – change to alternative energies has been completed

Schumpeter´s ideal – creative enterprise becomes the rule

Young families strive for knowledge, the older generations share their know-how. In a well-balanced society responsible entrepreneurs and responsible management are appreciated. With vigour people try to achieve their goals and commit themselves to the public good. Germany 2020: a successful society with opportunities for everyone.

WONDERFUL WORLD

Scenario 1 – Wonderful World

© UNITY, WJD

Public voice in 2020“Why should I not make money at the cost of others? Let´s be honest: tax evasion and financial fraud are no more than trifling offences these days. Whoever plays according to the rules is a fool. Or would you like to be poor?“

Armin Reuter, 54, entrepreneur

Scenario characteristics:

Old and lonely – more and more people live alone

Stabile, but focused backwards –the German economy slows down

Orwell´s 1984 becomes more and more reality – good education is a priviledge of the élite

Everyone looks after one´s own interests – shameless managers dominate the economy

Opportunistic „good deeds“ – voluntary work for one´s one interest only

The gap gets bigger – Germany is on its way to a two-class society

People are prepared to do almost anything for their own advantage as the air gets thinner: good education for the élite only, the gap between the rich and the poor becomes bigger. Irresponsible managers dictate the economy. Families fall by the wayside, older people find themselves alone more frequently. Germany 2020: a rough society where the weakest go to the wall.

A WORLD OF IRRESPONSIBLE INCOME OPPORTUNISTS

Scenario 2 – a world of irresponsible income opportunists

© UNITY, WJD

Public voice in 2020“As a child I always wanted to study in Australia, but then I lost interest in school and all that. Now I go begging and steal a Euro here and there. So what? Those up there leave you no choice!“

Daniel Kiermeier, 38, currently unemployed

Many people have not made it – Germany consists of rich and poor only. Many young, well educated families have left the country. Those who remain in Germany are not interested in education, egoism is their main purpose. Volunteers are viewed as idealistic lunatics. Germany 2020: We are on the brink.

Scenario characteristics:

Brain-Drain – academics try their luck abroad

Large-scale companies as secure home ports – entrepreneurship is not in fashion any longer

“I come first“-mentality – voluntary work is unthinkable

Stupid and yet more stupid – people are not interested in education

Imprisoned in a ghetto – social advancement is hardly possible

Poor and rich – Germany as a two-tier system

EGOISTS IN A TWO-TIER SYSTEM

Scenario 3 – two-class society of egoists

© UNITY, WJD

Public voice in 2020“What do you want? Go away! I don´t want to talk to anyone. What my family is up to? How am I to know? I don´t care. The same crap every day. But you don´t care anyway. Who cares about me? Now get lost!“

Karsten Kaufmann, 45, worker

Suspicious looks behind closed windows – the world has turned dark. People go to work without enthusiasm every day, social advancement is regarded as impossible. A small élite steers the country in its own interest. The majority resigns and throws values like ethics and moral overboard. Germany 2020: social unrest is in the air.

Scenario characteristics:

A tiny top, broad masses – élites dominate the society

Born poor, died poor – social advancement is impossible

Decay of values – egoisms and envy dominate

Childless society of old people –Germany dies out

The last entrepreneur – achievement is no longer appreciated

Homo-Apathicus – Resignation! Frustration! Unrest?

COLD

Scenario 4 – Cold

© UNITY, WJD

14

Five strategic excellence positions (SEP)

1. Providing respectable entrepreneurship

2. Supporting work AND family

3. Investing in education

4. Creating national and international networks

5. Being strong in innovations and conscious of resources

We want to face these scenarios and serve our society in the following 5 fields with our expertise:

Programme of JCI Germany

© UNITY, WJD

Results of „Operation future – Germany 2020“

© UNITY, WJD

2. Strategy

Results of „Operation Future – Germany 2020“

Content:

Impact of the szenarios on the work of our organisation

Strategic Plan/Programme for the whole organisation

1. Szenario Study

Base for the strategy

Content:

Future szenarios

© UNITY, WJD

4. Ambassador Training

Results of „Operation Future – Germany 2020“

Content:

Presentation material on 1-3

Toolkit to inform and inspire others (internally and externally)

3. Future Navigator

Tools for the local organisations

Content:

Recommendations and practical hints for local organisations work

Toolkit with:StudyStrategyFuture NavigatorSpeechPresentations (ger./en.)SEP-FlyerFlyer political positionsJCI Germany short movie

© UNITY, WJD

„Operation future – Germany 2020“

join us and let‘s combine forces for a better future