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2. Evidence-based management:
Why do we need it?
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Reason 1: Mounting criticism
”Staff in the private and public sectors are addressed on a daily basis in a language which does not express their own specific reality but the make-believe world of managers. This make-believe world is dominated by objectives couched and repeated in a theatrical rhetoric: top quality, excellence and continuous innovation”
Managers have to endure a great deal of criticism from various directions. Misuse of the position of power to one's own benefit, failure and mismanagement are the charges most commonly heard.
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Trust me, I’m a manager.
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Reason 2: Accountability
As a result of this increasing social
pressure there is an external drive for
transparency which fosters an upheaval
for ‘objective opinion’ and even ‘objective
evidence’.
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Half of what you learn will be shown to be either dead
wrong or out-of-date within 7 years of your graduation;
the trouble is that nobody can tell you which half
Reason 3: false information
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5 years? 7 years? 10 years?
Reason 4: half time value of knowledge
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But the MAIN reason is .....
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Seeing order in randomness Mental corner cutting Misinterpretation of incomplete data Halo effect False consensus effect Group think Self serving bias Sunk cost fallacy Cognitive dissonance reduction
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Confirmation bias Authority bias Small numbers fallacy In-group bias Recall bias Anchoring bias Inaccurate covariation detection Distortions due to plausibility
Postgraduate Course
Seeing order in randomness Mental corner cutting Misinterpretation of incomplete data Halo effect False consensus effect Reinterpreting evidence Group think Self serving bias Sunk cost fallacy Cognitive dissonance reduction
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Confirmation bias Authority bias In-group bias Recall bias Anchoring bias Inaccurate covariation detection Distortions due to plausibility
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We are predisposed to see order, pattern and causal relations in the world.
Patternicity: The tendency to find meaningful patterns in both meaningful and meaningless noise.
Seeing order in randomness
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We are pattern seeking primates: association learning
Seeing order in randomness
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Points of impact of V-1 bombs in London
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Points of impact of V-1 bombs in London
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A Type I error or a false positive, is believing a pattern is real when it is not (finding a non existent pattern)
A Type II error or a false negative, is not believing a pattern is real when it is (not recognizing a real pattern)
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Dr. Michael Shermer (Director of the Skeptics Society)
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A Type I error or a false positive: believe that the rustle in the grass is a dangerous predator when it is just the wind (low cost)
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
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Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
A Type II error or a false negative: believe that the rustle in the grass is just the wind when it is a dangerous predator (high cost)
Postgraduate Course
A Type I error or a false positive: believe that the rustle in the grass is a dangerous predator when it is just the wind (low cost)
Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
A Type II error or a false negative: believe that the rustle in the grass is just the wind when it is a dangerous predator (high cost)
DEFAULT
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Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
superstitious rituals
superstitious rituals
more stress = more prone to biases
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Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
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Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Erroneous beliefs plaque both experienced professionals and less informed laypeople alike.
stress & lifestyle peptic ulcer
Postgraduate CoursePeptic ulcer – an infectious disease!
This year's Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine goes to Barry Marshall and Robin Warren, who with tenacity and a prepared mind challenged prevailing dogmas. By using technologies generally available (fibre endoscopy, silver staining of histological sections and culture techniques for microaerophilic bacteria), they made an irrefutable case that the bacterium Helicobacter pylori is causing disease. By culturing the bacteria they made them amenable to scientific study.
In 1982, when this bacterium was discovered by Marshall and Warren, stress and lifestyle were considered the major causes of peptic ulcer disease. It is now
firmly established that Helicobacter pylori causes more then 90% of duodenal ulcers. The link between Helicobacter pylori infection and peptic ulcer disease has been established through studies of human volunteers, antibiotic treatment studies and epidemiological studies.
Oct 2005
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Errors and Biases of Human Judgment
Doctors and managers hold many erroneous beliefs,
not because they are ignorant or stupid, but because
they seem to be the most sensible conclusion
consistent with their own professional experience!
available evidence.
