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POSITIONED FOR GROWTHBNSF Railway
John Miller Group Vice President Agricultural Products BNSF Railway
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
(000
) Uni
ts
Historic Rail Industry Volumes
2
U.S. Class I Weekly Rail Volumes
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: AAR, CS-54 Data through Week 21, May 28, 2016
Recent Volume Trends Across the U.S. Rail Industry
3
Year-over-Year Percent Change Four-Week Rolling Average Volume
U.S. Class I Rail Industry
-14%
10%
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 3 6 9 12 15 18 21
2015 2016
-7.3% year-over-year
Last 4 weeks through Week 21
Source: Association of American Railroads (AAR) through week 21; May 28, 2016
Weeks
BNSF Weekly Volume Trends
4
145
160
175
190
205
220
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
219K215K
2006 Peak2015 Peak
2016
BNSF Railway Units Weekly Railroad Traffic Actuals Through Week 21
2007 2015
Source: Association of American Railroads (AAR) through May 28, 2016
Units
Economic ConditionsThe Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
5
ALL OTHER
WASTE AND SCRAP
FOOD AND KINDRED
CHEMICALS
LUMBER AND WOOD
GRAIN
GRAIN MILL PRODUCTS
PULP AND PAPER
CRUSHED STONE
METALLIC ORES
TRAILERS
-40% 30%-32.7%
-26.3%-20.6%-20.4%
-13.7%-7.1%-6.8%-6.6%-6.4%-6.3%-6.0%
-2.6%-1.3%
0.2%0.5%0.8%0.9%1.2%
7.6%9.8%
18.0%22.5%
U.S. Railroads (CS54 Groups, % Change in Units Handled) 2016 YTD, Most Recent 21 Weeks 2016 vs. 2015 (through May 28, 2016)
Source: Association of American Railroads (AAR) through May 28, 2016
U.S. Economic Outlook Trend 2016
6
GDP IPI Less Tech
Source: IHS Economics, May 2016
y/y percent change
2016 Annual Forecast Changes Over Time
The Rail Industry Sees Cyclical Movements Similar to GDP
7
-17%
12%
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010 2011
20122013
20142015
U.S. Rail Volumes U.S. GDP
Percent Change Year-over-Year
Exchange RatesWall Street Journal U.S. Dollar Index
8 Source: Wall Street Journal, BUXX; June 3, 2016
64
73
82
91
100
01/01/2013 03/19/2013 06/04/2013 08/20/2013 11/05/2013 01/21/2014 04/08/2014 06/24/2014 09/09/2014 11/25/2014 02/06/2015 04/24/2015 07/10/2015 09/25/2015 12/11/2015 02/26/2016 05/13/2016
June 3, 2016 86.15
-0.7% y/y
-5% YTD
+19% vs. Jul '14
U.S. Dollar Index
BNSF is a Leading U.S. Railroad
9
• A Berkshire Hathaway company
• 32,500 route miles in 28 states and operates in three Canadian provinces
• Approximately 8,199 locomotives
• 13,000 bridges and 88 tunnels
• Moves one-fourth of the nation’s rail freight
• Operates about 1,200 freight trains per day
• Serves more than 40 ports and 25 intermodal facilities
• Leads rail industry in technological innovation
• Unlike other forms of transportation, BNSF trains operate on an infrastructure financed almost entirely by the railroad
2015 BNSFDensity Flow
10
What BNSF Carried in 2015
(thousands of units)
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
1,873Y/Y CHANGE -5.9%
COAL
2,286Y/Y CHANGE +0.7%
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
1,044Y/Y CHANGE +7.2%
(000) Units
CONSUMER PRODUCTS
5,066Y/Y CHANGE +0.5%
Consumer Products
13
The long-term outlook for Domestic intermodal is strong given the demand for Highway-to-Rail conversions
International intermodal will grow with the economy and Trans-Pacific Trade
Regulatory pressure on Truck Industry – Hours of Service, Electronic Logging Device, Drug and Alcohol Database, Speed Limiters
Consumer Products Market Drivers
14 Source: IHS Economics, FTR
GDP GROWTH VS. INTERMODAL GROWTH
37
38.8571
40.7143
42.5714
44.4286
46.2857
48.1429
50
Jan-0
8Ju
l-08
Jan-0
9Ju
l-09
Jan-1
0Ju
l-10
Jan-1
1Ju
l-11
Jan-1
2Ju
l-12
Jan-1
3Ju
l-13
Jan-1
4Ju
l-14
Jan-1
5Ju
l-15
Jan-1
6Ju
l-16
Jan-1
7Ju
l-17
Jan-1
8Ju
l-18
Jan-1
9Ju
l-19
Jan-2
0
RETAILERS INVENTORIES
0.0%
4.0%
2015Q1 2015Q2
2015Q3 2015Q4
2016Q1 2016Q2
2016Q3 2016Q4
2017Q1 2017Q2
2017Q3 2017Q4
Real GDP Less-Tech Mfg.REAL GDP VS. "LESS-TECH" MANUFACTURING OUTPUT
-15%
-7%
1%
8%
16%
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011 2012
20132014
2015
U.S. GDP NA Intermodal
Driver Shortage (-) / Surplus (+)
'(300) '(225) '(150)
'(75) '- 75
150 225 300
2007.12008.1
2009.12010.1
2011.12012.1
2013.12014.1
2015.12016.1
2017.12018.1
15
What BNSF Carried in 2015
(thousands of units)
CONSUMER PRODUCTS
5,066Y/Y CHANGE +0.5%
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
1,873Y/Y CHANGE -5.9%
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
1,044Y/Y CHANGE +7.2%
(000) Units
COAL
2,286Y/Y CHANGE +0.7%
Coal
17
Decreased electricity generation due to record mild winter and low natural gas prices has resulted in all-time high coal inventory levels
Unfavorable export market driven by worldwide supply and strong dollar
Increased Federal regulation leads to more renewable capacity and coal plant closures in the long-term
Coal Energy MarketsLow natural gas prices and softening utility generation
18
PRB INVENTORIES
30
51
73
94
115
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16
Days of Burn Normal Days of Burn
PRB COAL BURN
16
23
31
38
45
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16
NATURAL GAS PRICE
$0
$2
$3
$5
$6
Jan-14Jul-14
Jan-15Jul-15
Jan-16Jul-16
Jan-17Jul-17
Jan-18Jul-18
Jan-19Jul-19
Jan-20Jul-20
Source: Nymex; Energy Ventures Analysis; EEI
Days
Days
WEEKLY U.S. POWER GENERATION
60,000
145,000
230,000
315,000
400,000
Jan May Jun Jul Nov Dec
2015 5 YR MIN 5 YR Range 20165 YR AVG
kWh
19
What BNSF Carried in 2015
(thousands of units)
COAL
2,286Y/Y CHANGE +0.7%
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
1,044Y/Y CHANGE +7.2%
(000) Units
CONSUMER PRODUCTS
5,066Y/Y CHANGE +0.5%
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
1,873Y/Y CHANGE -5.9%
Industrial Products Commodity Breakdown
20
Building ProductsPaper, Pulp, Lumber, Panel,
Rail Equipment, Transformers, Generators, Roofing Materials, Waste
Construction ProductsPipe, Sheet, Structural,
Scrap, Taconite, Aluminum, Sand, Salt, Clays, Crushed Stone, Cement, Lime, Gypsum
Petroleum ProductsCrude OilLPGAsphaltAlcohols & Solvents
Food & BeverageBeer & WineCanned GoodsPerishablesVegetables
Chemicals & PlasticsAcids, Intermediates,Caustic Soda, PVC,
Polypropylene, Polystyrene, Polyethylene
Industrial Products
Dramatically lower oil prices have driven down demand for petroleum and its associated products (such as frac sand and steel pipe)
Demand for residential and commercial construction materials (aggregates, cement and lumber) remains solid
22
The strong U.S. Dollar is limiting steel exports, as well as steel inputs such as taconite
Active Oil Rig Counts Bottoming OutCurrent rig count supported by improved supply-demand and pricing environment
23 Source: Baker Hughes, BTU Analytics, EIA.gov
U.S. OIL RIG COUNT
Rig
Coun
t
0
450
900
1,350
1,800
1/2/098/14/09
3/26/1011/5/10
6/17/111/27/12
9/7/124/19/13
11/27/137/11/14
2/20/1510/2/15
5/13/16
WEEKLY WTI SPOT PRICE 2009-CURRENT
$/bbl
0
30
60
90
120
Jan-09Jun-09
Dec-09Jun-10
Dec-10Jun-11
Nov-11May-12
Nov-12May-13
Nov-13May-14
Oct-14Apr-15
Oct-15Apr-16
CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION (Lower 48 States-Onshore)
Millio
n bb
ls/da
y
2
3.5
5
6.5
8
May-16Nov-15
May-15Nov-14
May-14Nov-13
May-13Nov-12
May-12Nov-11
May-11Nov-10
May-10Nov-09
May-09
NEW WELL OIL PRODUCTION PER RIG
'-
250
500
750
1,000
Jan-09Jul-09
Jan-10Jul-10
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12Jul-12
Jan-13Jul-13
Jan-14Jul-14
Jan-15Jul-15
Jan-16
Bakken Eagleford Niobrara Permian
BBLS
/day
Successful Leadership – Successful Business
24
What BNSF Carried in 2015
(thousands of units)
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
1,873Y/Y CHANGE -5.9%
COAL
2,286Y/Y CHANGE +0.7%
(000) Units
CONSUMER PRODUCTS
5,066Y/Y CHANGE +0.5%
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
1,044Y/Y CHANGE +7.2%
Agricultural Products Commodity Breakdown
25
GrainWheat Barley Corn Soybeans Milo
Bulk FoodsSweeteners Syrups Animal Products Starch
Other Grain ProductsOils Feeds Flour Specialty Grains Oilseeds & Meals Malt
EthanolFertilizer
Agricultural Products
27
U.S. grain supplies are at their highest levels in almost 30 years after three consecutive large crops, incenting farmers to store grain
Grain exports remain challenged due to the strong U.S. dollar and high domestic/global supplies
Global demand continues to outpace supply
Agricultural Products Market Drivers
28 Source: USDA.gov; www.investing.com
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
2011/122012/13
2013/142014/15
2015/16
Supply DemandWORLD GRAIN SUPPLY OUTPACING DEMAND
'-
750
1,500
2,250
3,000
2011/122012/13
2013/142014/15
2015/16
CHINESE SOYBEAN IMPORTS
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$3
$5
$6
$8
$9
Jan-10Jul-10
Jan-11Aug-11
Feb-12Sept-12
Mar-13Oct-13
Apr-14Nov-14
May-15Nov-15
Corn Price U.S. Dollar Index
'-
875
1,750
2,625
3,500
2011/122012/13
2013/142014/15
2015/16
Corn WheatSoybeans
U.S. RECORD ENDING GRAIN STOCKS STRONG DOLLAR VS. CORN PRICE
Corn
Pric
e
Millio
n Bu
shels
Millio
n Bu
shels
Millio
n Bu
shels
U.S. Farm Income Decreases
30 Source: USDA (http://ers.usda.gov) – U.S. and State-Level Farm Statistics February, 2016
USDA forecasting a 40% decrease in U.S. Farm INCOME in 2016 v. 2014
Total U.S. Farm DEBT will RISE $9B year over year –
totaling $373B in 2016
Total U.S. Farm EQUITY expected to decrease by 2% in 2016
Rail Industry Capital Spend Over the Years
31
$10.0
$15.5
$21.0
$26.5
$32.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Capital Spend
Record Railroad Spending on Infrastructure & Equipment*
Source: AAR
* Capital spending + maintenance expenses. Data are for Class I railroads
$ Billions
BNSF’s Capital Investments
32
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Replacement Capital Expansion PTC Locomotive Equipment
$5.8
$ Billions
2016 Capital Investments
8%12%
14%66%
Core Network and Related AssetsLocomotive, Freight Car, and Other EquipExpansion and EfficiencyPTC
2016 Capital Commitment $4.2B
$2.8 billion
Core Network & Related Assets
$600 million
Loco, Freight Car, & Other Equip
$500 million
Expansion & Efficiency
$300 million
Positive Train Control
33