POPULATION EXPLOSION POPULATION EXPLOSION AND FRESHWATER CRISESAND FRESHWATER CRISES

Dr. Mohammed Salim Akhter.Dr. Mohammed Salim Akhter.

Nov 21Nov 21stst & 22 & 22ndnd, 2011., 2011.

Critical AreasCritical Areas

• Population GrowthPopulation Growth• Fresh Water Supplies.Fresh Water Supplies.• Food production.Food production.

Part 1: PopulationPart 1: Population

a.a. Currently the world’s Currently the world’s population is 6.7 billion.population is 6.7 billion.

b.b. Rate of growth is roughly Rate of growth is roughly 75 million per year.75 million per year.

c.c. On oct,21 (2011) it On oct,21 (2011) it reached to 7 billion mark.reached to 7 billion mark.

d.d. At this rate it is expected At this rate it is expected to reach 9.5 billion by to reach 9.5 billion by 2050.2050.

Fig 1: Shows global population growth curve.

DistributionDistribution

• China and India have a population greater than 1 billion, together possessing more China and India have a population greater than 1 billion, together possessing more than a than a thirdthird of the world’s population! of the world’s population!

Fig 2: Shows Distribution of population.

• In the last 60 years 2 billion people moved In the last 60 years 2 billion people moved to cities.to cities.

• The World’s population has tripled over The World’s population has tripled over the last 60 years.the last 60 years.

• In Shanghai, 3000 sky-scrapers came up In Shanghai, 3000 sky-scrapers came up in the last 20 years and 100 more are in the last 20 years and 100 more are under construction.under construction.

• Today, 50% of people live in cities.Today, 50% of people live in cities.

Urban ExplosionUrban Explosion

Fig 3: Shows population increase in Pakistan.

Population Growth in Population Growth in PakistanPakistan

Part 2: Freshwater CrisisPart 2: Freshwater Crisis• Only 3% of the world’s water is fresh; all Only 3% of the world’s water is fresh; all

the rest is salty.the rest is salty.• One Million Acre Foot is the volume of One Million Acre Foot is the volume of

water that covers one million acres of land water that covers one million acres of land to a depth of 1 foot.to a depth of 1 foot.

• Each person needs about 1 Million Acre Each person needs about 1 Million Acre Foot of water each year.Foot of water each year.

• This is equivalent to about 8,000 barrels or This is equivalent to about 8,000 barrels or 1,000 cubic meters of water!1,000 cubic meters of water!

Fresh Water SourcesFresh Water Sources

• Only 0.5% of fresh water is available.Only 0.5% of fresh water is available.• The majority is in aquifers, natural lakes and The majority is in aquifers, natural lakes and

in the form of rainfall.in the form of rainfall.

• 110,000 cubic kilometers of precipitation falls 110,000 cubic kilometers of precipitation falls onto the earth’s land surface every year.onto the earth’s land surface every year.

• This is 10 times the volume of Lake Superior.This is 10 times the volume of Lake Superior.• Enough to easily fulfill requirements of everyone.Enough to easily fulfill requirements of everyone.• But much of it cannot be captured!But much of it cannot be captured!• More than half evaporatesMore than half evaporates• A third ends up in oceansA third ends up in oceans• Only 1.5% is used by people!Only 1.5% is used by people!

RainfallRainfall

Where Does Rain Water Go?Where Does Rain Water Go?

• In the last 50 years 21 In the last 50 years 21 million wells have dried up.million wells have dried up.

• The level of water in The level of water in oceans is going down 1 oceans is going down 1 meter per year.meter per year.

• Accessing ground water Accessing ground water requires digging deeper.requires digging deeper.

• While levels are falling we While levels are falling we are extracting more water!are extracting more water!

• Total estimated ground Total estimated ground water in Pakistan is 50-60 water in Pakistan is 50-60 MAF. We are already very MAF. We are already very close to this limit!close to this limit!

Ground WaterGround Water

Groundwater Levels in PunjabGroundwater Levels in Punjab

Desert CropsDesert Crops

Desert CropsDesert Crops• 25,000 years ago, water collected under deserts. This water 25,000 years ago, water collected under deserts. This water

is non-renewable but is being used to grow vegetables and is non-renewable but is being used to grow vegetables and grain in KSA, Libya and Africa.grain in KSA, Libya and Africa.

• Desert crops are inherently inefficient but feasible if ground-Desert crops are inherently inefficient but feasible if ground-water is managed by treated, cyclic use and losses are water is managed by treated, cyclic use and losses are minimized.minimized.

• Cost-effective lining/layering materials (e.g., HDPE/plastic Cost-effective lining/layering materials (e.g., HDPE/plastic sheets) can greatly reduce water losses in tanks, ponds, etc. sheets) can greatly reduce water losses in tanks, ponds, etc.

• Similarly, renewable energy powered (solar and wind) Similarly, renewable energy powered (solar and wind) pumps can be used to transport water via drip/sprinklers.pumps can be used to transport water via drip/sprinklers.

ShortagesShortages• Today 1 out of 6 people face inadequate access to safe Today 1 out of 6 people face inadequate access to safe

freshwater.freshwater.• By 2025 more than half of the countries across the By 2025 more than half of the countries across the

globe will face shortages according to the UN.globe will face shortages according to the UN.• By 2050 up to 75% of the world could face shortages. By 2050 up to 75% of the world could face shortages. • In Western India 30% of wells have dried up and been In Western India 30% of wells have dried up and been

abandoned. abandoned. • Residents of Las Vegas are one of the largest Residents of Las Vegas are one of the largest

consumers of water in the world. Las Vegas was built in consumers of water in the world. Las Vegas was built in the desert! the desert!

• Water shortage could effect 2 billion people by 2025.Water shortage could effect 2 billion people by 2025.

Freshwater AvailabilityFreshwater Availability• GlobalGlobal

• 1950 – 16,800 cubic meters per annum1950 – 16,800 cubic meters per annum• 2000 – 6,800 cubic meters per annum2000 – 6,800 cubic meters per annum• Reduction of 60% in 50 years!Reduction of 60% in 50 years!

• Pakistan• 1950 – 5,300 cubic meters per annum• 2000 – 1,200 cubic meters per annum• Reduction of 77% in 50 years!

• Critical limit: 1,000 cubic meters per person per annum

Population Growth Vs Water Population Growth Vs Water AvailabilityAvailability

ConsumptionConsumption

• Not only does demand rise with Not only does demand rise with population size and growth rate, population size and growth rate, it also tends to go up with it also tends to go up with income level.income level.

• The rich also require wastewater The rich also require wastewater treatment and intensive farm treatment and intensive farm irrigation.irrigation.

• The world's largest consumer of The world's largest consumer of water is an American. Next in water is an American. Next in line is a European.line is a European.

Global Water ShortageGlobal Water Shortage• Regions in Central Asia and North America face “physical” scarcity i.e., Regions in Central Asia and North America face “physical” scarcity i.e.,

demand exceeds supply.demand exceeds supply.• Regions in Central Africa, South & South-East Asia face “economic” scarcity Regions in Central Africa, South & South-East Asia face “economic” scarcity

i.e., lack of training, bad governments or weak finances limit access, even i.e., lack of training, bad governments or weak finances limit access, even though sufficient supplies are available.though sufficient supplies are available.

• Ogallala Aquifer:Ogallala Aquifer: 95% of the US fresh water supply is underground. 95% of the US fresh water supply is underground. The Ogallala aquifer was formed over millions of years and supplies The Ogallala aquifer was formed over millions of years and supplies 1/3rd of all US irrigation water. According to expectations it might last 1/3rd of all US irrigation water. According to expectations it might last for only 60 more years.for only 60 more years.

• Tigris & Euphrates: Tigris & Euphrates: Drainage and irrigation schemes in Iraq have led Drainage and irrigation schemes in Iraq have led to the loss of an estimated 90% of one of the world’s most significant to the loss of an estimated 90% of one of the world’s most significant wetlands.wetlands.

• China: China: In the north all 3 rivers are severely polluted while the Yellow In the north all 3 rivers are severely polluted while the Yellow River which supplies water to China’s most critical farming region River which supplies water to China’s most critical farming region runs dry 200 days every year.runs dry 200 days every year.

• The mighty river Jordan is now a trickle across the planet. The mighty river Jordan is now a trickle across the planet.

• One in ten major rivers no longer flow into the sea for several months One in ten major rivers no longer flow into the sea for several months of a year.of a year.

Water Hot SpotsWater Hot Spots

Solutions for Shortages Solutions for Shortages

• Limit wasteLimit waste• Build recycling and reclamation systemsBuild recycling and reclamation systems• Improve water-delivery systems to reduce losses.Improve water-delivery systems to reduce losses.• Channel water for crop fields to underground storage in Channel water for crop fields to underground storage in

the non-growing season.the non-growing season.• Extensive use of drip-irrigation systems that allow water Extensive use of drip-irrigation systems that allow water

to seep in slowly.to seep in slowly.• New crop varieties that can tolerate low water levels.New crop varieties that can tolerate low water levels.• New desalination techniques such as membrane New desalination techniques such as membrane

reverse-osmosis systems.reverse-osmosis systems.

Protect Natural Water Cycle Protect Natural Water Cycle and Resource Baseand Resource Base

• Ensure that the natural Ensure that the natural water cycle is maintainedwater cycle is maintained

• Protect all water bodies Protect all water bodies from pollutants including from pollutants including rivers, lakes and flood-rivers, lakes and flood-plains. plains.

• For groundwater aquifers For groundwater aquifers use artificial recharge in use artificial recharge in fresh zones. fresh zones.

• Also minimize and drain Also minimize and drain effluent in saline areas.effluent in saline areas.

National Way ForwardNational Way Forward

• National Water PolicyNational Water Policy• Provincial Water Visions in accordance with the Indus Provincial Water Visions in accordance with the Indus

Water Treaty and later accordsWater Treaty and later accords• Creation of a Water Resources Development and Creation of a Water Resources Development and

Management Think Tank with experts from the Planning Management Think Tank with experts from the Planning Commission, HEC, Universities, PEC, PSAE etc.Commission, HEC, Universities, PEC, PSAE etc.

• Control quality of water resources with house-hold waste Control quality of water resources with house-hold waste management, controls on commercial and domestic use management, controls on commercial and domestic use and upkeep and maintenance of infrastructure.and upkeep and maintenance of infrastructure.

• Control demand side with appropriate pricing, public Control demand side with appropriate pricing, public conservation drives and provision of water-conserving conservation drives and provision of water-conserving house-hold appliances such as dual-flush toilets that house-hold appliances such as dual-flush toilets that allow for either a full flush or a half flush.allow for either a full flush or a half flush.

• Power of coal and oil (Black Gold) has Power of coal and oil (Black Gold) has dramatically changed the world. dramatically changed the world.

• Much of the World’s grain is converted into bio-Much of the World’s grain is converted into bio-feed and fed to raise livestock, thus used feed and fed to raise livestock, thus used primarily to produce meat. primarily to produce meat.

• Toxic pesticides used to improve crop yields Toxic pesticides used to improve crop yields penetrate the heart of every mother’s cells. penetrate the heart of every mother’s cells.

• Fertilizer, another Petrochemical byproduct Fertilizer, another Petrochemical byproduct which is generously used during harvesting, is which is generously used during harvesting, is producing its own harmful effects.producing its own harmful effects.

Part 3: Food ProductionPart 3: Food Production

• Varieties of grain developed by farmers over Varieties of grain developed by farmers over thousands of years have been wiped out of the thousands of years have been wiped out of the planet by new fast-growing crops. planet by new fast-growing crops.

• The more a country is considered developed, The more a country is considered developed, the more meat its inhabitants produce and the more meat its inhabitants produce and consume. consume.

• Soya bean and protein-rich grains are mainly Soya bean and protein-rich grains are mainly used to feed cattle not humans.used to feed cattle not humans.

Food ProductionFood Production

• It takes 100 liters of It takes 100 liters of water to produce 1kg of water to produce 1kg of potatoes.potatoes.

• While it takes 4,000 While it takes 4,000 liters of water to produce liters of water to produce 1kg of rice.1kg of rice.

• And it takes 30,000 liters And it takes 30,000 liters of water to produce 1kg of water to produce 1kg of beef.of beef.

Food ProductionFood Production

• Dr. Mohammed Salim Akhter.Dr. Mohammed Salim Akhter.• Former Vice-Chancellor, Dean of Science and Former Vice-Chancellor, Dean of Science and

Professor.Professor.• MRCOG, FRCOG, FRCS, FACOG, FCPS, Phd.MRCOG, FRCOG, FRCS, FACOG, FCPS, Phd.• http://www.shadmanhouse.org• msakhter47@yahoo.com

Thank YouThank You