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Population DemographicsAffecting Washington
Higher Education
Presented to House Higher Education CommitteeJuly 27, 2009
Randy Spaulding, Ph.D.Director of Academic Affairs
Higher Education Coordinating [email protected]
Opportunities for change
1
Washington’s population is aging
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Population projections by age
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65+
Through 2020 the number and shareof 18-24 year olds will decline.
Through at least 2030 the share of the population 45-64 will decline while the number in this age cohort will remain fairly stable.
The share of the population 65 and older is increasing.
Source: HECB Analysis of OFM Population Estimate, Downloaded March 2009
Opportunities for change
2
Washington is becoming more diverse
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
White Black
AIAN API
Multi Hispanic / Latino
2010-2030 Population Growth by Race/EthnicityThe number of working-age adults from diverse groups will grow, while the number of working-age Whites will decline.
Whites as a share of the workforce will decline; Blacks and Native Americans as a share of the workforce will remain about the same; and the share of Asian or Pacific Islanders, Latinos, and those from multiple races will increase.
Source: HECB Analysis of OFM 18-64 Population Estimate, Downloaded March 2009
Opportunities for change
3
Younger Hispanics / Latinos driving population growth
Source: HECB Analysis of OFM Population Estimate, Downloaded March 2009
White
AI/AN
Black / Af. Am.
Multi
API
Hispanic / Latino
Total
Population growth among 18 to 34-year-olds 2010-2030
Opportunities for change
4
By 2030, more than 36% of K-12 students will be from diverse groups.
Under-represented students are the most rapidly growing group in the K-12 system
Source: OFM 2007
Opportunities for change
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Two or more -Non Hispanic
AI/AN A/PIHispanic/Latino AfricanAmerican
3.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0%
5.7% 6.1% 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.3% 6.1%
10.7%13.1%
14.9%
1.9%
15.3% 15.4% 16.4% 17.7%
4.4%
5.0%
5.8% 6.3% 6.8%7.6%
8.2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
1.8% 1.7% 1.6%1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
High school graduation rates lower among under-represented groups
Source: OSPI - Graduation and Dropout Statistics for Washington in 2007-08
Opportunities for change
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55%
61%
65%
68%
69%
77%
79%
85%
86%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Amer. Indian
Other
Pac. Islander
Black
Hispanic / Latino
All Students
White
Asian/Pac. Islander
Asian
High School Graduation Rates 2007-08
On-Time Grad Rate (minus continuing) Extended Grad Rate
Source: Projection through 2022 based on Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) projections from Knock, Knock Who’s There. Findings from WICHE’s Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity. 2022 – 2031 based upon HECB calculations of high school graduates based on the Caseload Forecast Council’s grade 12 caseload forecasts.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Pro
jecte
d W
as
hin
gto
n P
ub
lic
Hig
h S
ch
oo
l G
rad
ua
tes
White Non-Hispanic
Am. Indian / Alaska Native
Hispanic/Latino
Black, Non-Latino
Asian/Pacific Islander
Opportunities for change
Growth will
occur more
rapidly from
2020-2030.
WICHE projections show the number of
Hispanic/Latino high school graduates will
increase considerably in the next decade and
beyond even if no improvement in their high
school graduation rates is achieved.
Since Latinos participate in higher education at
a much lower rate than other groups, more
emphasis will be needed to raise participation
rates among these students.
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WICHE Projections Caseload Forecast Council Projections
Latino high school graduates fastest-growing group
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Opportunities for change
13.5%
11.6%
10.5%9.3%
6.2%
11.6%12.2%
4.3%
7.5%
4.2%
2.6%
6.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
API Black White AI/AN Hispanic / Latino
Statewide
Postsecondary participation rates vary by race/ethnicity
Participation rates at 4-year institutions (public and ICW)and CTCs (college level) by race/ethnicity 2006-2007
CTCs
4-YR
Participation Rates include: CTC: CTC Headcount / 18-44 population with less than an associate degree and 4-Year: Public and
ICW Baccalaureate Headcount / 18-44 population with less than a bachelor’s degree.
Source: SBCTC Data Warehouse; 2006-07 PCHEES for public 4-years; IPEDS for ICW data. Population Data from 2007 American
Community Survey.
CTC: 15,790 CTC: 9,630 CTC: 116,760 CTC: 4,580 CTC: 14,230 CTC: 178,3904-Yr.: 17,400 4-Yr.: 4,155 4-Yr.: 99,803 4-Yr.: 2,343 4-Yr.: 6,501 4-Yr.: 130,202
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Undergraduate students
State population 18-44
State population 18-64
11.4%
Hispanic/
LatinoBlack/ Afr Am
Asian/ Pacific
Islander
Am Indian/ Alaska Native
Multi
Opportunities for change
Graduate students
8.6%
4.8% 1.8%
3.3%
3.7%
2.7%
2.9%
9.1%
13.3%
8.3%
7.6% 2.5%
3.0%
2.2%
1.1%
1.2%
1.4%
1.8%3.5%
Undergraduate, graduate enrollment and state population by race/ethnicity
1.9%
9
Sources: SBCTC Personnel Data (Fall 2008), IPEDS Staff Survey (2005,06,07), ACS 2007, PCHEES
72%
66%
58%
50% 50%
66%
Asian/Pacific Islander
White Hispanic/Latino American Indian/Alaska
Native
Black/African American
Total
Public 4-Year Baccalaureate Graduation Rate First-Time / Full Time Freshmen who Completed within 150% (6 years) of Normal Time
Opportunities for change
Under-represented students are less likely to graduate on time
Source: 2007 IPEDS. 10
Opportunities for change
Latinos, American Indians, and Alaska Natives have the lowest levels of postsecondary educational attainment
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64%56%
38% 39% 35% 33% 30% 34%
16%21%
32%22% 32%
15% 25%24%
7% 9%11%
7%9%
8%
11% 11%
13% 13% 18%
31%24%
44%33% 32%
Hispanic/Latino
American Indian/Alaska Native
Black/African American
Other Race Multi-racial Asian/Pacific Islander
White Total
Highest Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity: Ages 25-64High School Diploma or Less Some college, no degree Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree or Higher
Source: 2007 American Community Survey
Too few students continue to higher levels of education
Potential students who can
attain higher levels of education
2006-07
completers/
residents
% Who
continue in
higher
education
# Who
continue
(2006-07)
High School Graduates* 65,300 57% 37,200
GED Completers 16,600 39% 6,500
Private Vocational School Certificates 12,700n/a
(data not avail.)
n/a(data not avail.)
CTC Technical Degrees 7,350 13% 950
CTC Transfer Associate Degrees 12,540 71% 8,900
Adults age 18-44 with
“a high school diploma or less”**865,000 9% 77,800
Adult re-entry – age 18-44 with
“some college, no degree”**440,000 30% 132,000
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Opportunities for change
*Estimate based on % of respondents who reported continuation to college.**Some duplicate counting possible.
Source: OSPI 2007 Graduate Follow-up Study (SESRC); GED Testing Data (SBCTC); SBCTC Completions Files; Private Vocational School data from WTECB; adult re-entry and adults with no college experience from 2007 American Community Survey.
1. The Higher education system will need to grow to provide the same level of service provided today.
2. In order to maintain current total participation rates, we’ll need to do a better job of serving underrepresented minorities in higher education.
3. In order to reach the master plan goals and best position Washington to remain globally competitive, participation rates and completion rates in our higher education system must increase.
Opportunities for change
Three critical implications
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Opportunities for change
917 Lakeridge Way SW
PO Box 43430
Olympia, WA 98504-3430
Phone: 360-753-7800
Web site: hecb.wa.gov
Comments about the master plan?
Washington Higher Education Coordinating Board
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