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Poli 103A California Politics Parties and Redistricting -www.cerc.net http://field.com/ fieldpollonline/subscribers/ - http://www.ppic.org/main/ series.asp?i=12

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Poli 103A California PoliticsParties and Redistricting

-www.cerc.nethttp://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/-http://www.ppic.org/main/series.asp?i=12

Parties and Redistricting

Why California Has Weak Parties•Roles of parties

•History of nomination processes in CA

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting•Rules of the game

•Rules of thumb

•Can we judge redistricting plans?

Why California Has Weak Parties

In American politics, a party’s most important functions are selecting a nominee and supporting that nominee in a general election.

In Europe, parties are much more active in influencing the votes of their legislators and disciplining them by controlling their careers.

Why California Has Weak PartiesNominating Candidates

In California’s history, the process of selecting party nominees has undergone significant changes.

•The Convention System, 1849-1908. Parties got to throw their own parties, managing and paying for conventions that were not regulated by the state.

Why California Has Weak PartiesNominating Candidates

The Convention System No laws against bribing delegates. No laws guaranteeing delegates the right

to vote at a convention. “Both sneaks and sluggers were employed

as the occasion dictated.” –C. Edward Merriam, 1908.

Streetfights between the longhair and shorthair Union partisans in 1866.

Why California Has Weak PartiesNominating Candidates

Direct primaries with cross-filing, 1908-1959.

•1908 initiative, pushed by Progressives, had the state take over and finance primaries in which party members voted.

•Cross-filing removed a candidate’s party label from the primary ballot, and allowed candidates to run in multiple primaries

Why California Has Weak PartiesNominating Candidates

Cross-Filing Party members could still select their

nominee, but they often chose an incumbent from the other party.

1952 initiative attached party labels. 1959 abolition of cross filing

prevented candidates from running in more than one party primary.

Why California Has Weak PartiesNominating Candidates

Blanket Primary, 1998-2000. Proposition 198, financed by moderate

Republicans and reformers, let voters chose the primary in which they would participate.

Meant to bring independents and moderates into the process, and select more moderate nominees.

Why California Has Weak PartiesNominating Candidates

The danger to parties was that by opening up their primaries to non-members, they might select:•Republicans’ favorite Democrat & vice-versa

•“Turkeys” who can’t win general election

The US Supreme Court agreed that this system violated a party’s freedom of association in California Democratic Party vs. Jones, 2000

Why California Has Weak PartiesNominating Candidates

California Federation of Labor Scores in the Assembly for the Median Member of Each Party, 1933-1999

0

20

40

60

80

100

1933 1941 1949 1957 1965 1973 1981 1989 1997

Democrats

Republicans

NOTE: Labor scores are derived from the annual publication of the California Federation of Labor, AFL-CIO, recorded and presented by Seth Masket. Scores have been adjusted by the process described by Groseclose, Levitt, and Snyder (1999).

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of the Game

After each census (2000, 1990,..) new congressional, state Senate, and state Assembly districts drawn because:•CA always gets more seats in Congress.

•Old districts no longer = in population.

Plan must pass Senate and Assembly with simple majorities and be signed by the governor, requiring compromise.

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of the Game

If elected officials fail to reach an agreement, redistricting passes to the State Supreme Court, which may appoint “Special Masters.”

The federal Voting Rights Act of 1965 allows affected voters to sue if the voting power of racial and ethnic minorities is diluted when lines drawn with discriminatory intent and effect.

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of the Game

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of Thumb

There is often a trade-off between making incumbents safe and getting more seats for the party in power.•A plan that makes incumbents safe

(less responsive) packs lots of their supporters together in a district.

•A plan that helps a party win more seats than it has voters (more biased) needs to spread around just enough supporters.

The Partisan Warfare of Redistricting: Rules of Thumb

There is sometimes a trade-off between increasing minority voting power and helping Democrats.•Latino and African-American voters

tend to live in areas heavily populated by Democrats.

•A district that is 55% African-American is likely to be 85% Democratic, leaving fewer voters to spread around.

Can We Judge Redistricting Plans?

J. Morgan Kousser argues that plans should be judged by their predicted partisan effects, not by the process by which they are created.

Since political dynamics change after a plan is written (Watergate, Gingrich revolution), statistics provide us with the best way to judge plans.

Can We Judge Redistricting Plans?

Kousser’s method uses a regression to see how increasing Republican registration by 1% will affect the vote for a Republican candidate.

Predicts about 98% of races. Allows us to compare how many

seats each party is expected to win at the time a plan is drawn.

Discussion Questions What would California politics look like

without any parties? Can we look for clues by studying local, non-partisan politics?

Which goals are most important in a redistricting system?•Competition

•Partisan proportionality

•Minority voting rights

•Compactness and continguity