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Please find our Research on Bloomberg BRYG <GO>)
19th December 2012 BG’s Wake Up Call
Last
close Daily chg
(%)
Chg YTD
(%) Indices
Dow Jones 13350.96 +0.87% +9.28%
S&P 500 1446.79 +1.15% +15.04%
Nasdaq 3054.53 +1.46% +17.25%
Nikkei 10160.4 +2.39% +17.36%
Stoxx 600 280.463 +0.46% +14.69%
CAC 40 3648.63 +0.29% +15.47%
Oil /Gold
Crude WTI 87.97 +0.73% -11.17%
Gold (once) 1692.34 -0.26% +7.48%
Currencies/Rates
EUR/USD 1.3213 +0.39% +1.78%
EUR/CHF 1.20665 -0.12% -0.60%
German 10 years 1.397 +1.92% -23.58%
French 10 years 2.04 +1.50% -35.56%
Euribor 0.184 0.00 -86.43%
Economic releases :
Date
19-Dec JPY - Bank of Japan Rate Decision (0,10% exp.)
DE - German IFO Business Climate Dec. (102 exp. 101.4
prev.)
DE - German IFO Expectations Fec. (96.4 exp. 95.2
prev)
US - Housing building permits Nov. (875K exp)
US - Housing starts Nov. (871K exp)
US - Housing starts MoM (-2.5% exp.)
Upcoming BG events :
Recent reports :
Date
12-Dec Luxury Goods Better news from China!
11-Dec Bureau Veritas Visibility and growth (coverage
initiated BUY, FV EUR95)
4-Dec Consumer Durables : Time to take a closer look at
emerging markets (Essilor, Luxottica)
29-Nov HEINEKEN (BUY, FV EUR60 vs. EUR48) Earning its
stripes
28-Nov Diagnostic : Transition achieved! Now It’s all about
growth
15-Nov Materials : US: an ongoing recovery in housing but
don't expect too much from infrastructures…
IT SOFTWARE & SERVICES
Oracle's Q2 FY13 results: positive read-across for European Software vendors
Yesterday evening Oracle reported Q2 FY13 earnings (FYE 31st May) slightly above
consensus average and company guidance, and announced an encouraging guidance for
Q3 FY13. We view these numbers as a positive read-across for European Software
companies, so we expect positive share price reactions – even though we need to
monitor more closely Oracle’s claimed market share gains against SAP in Europe.
In brief...
AXA, Rating downgraded 1 notch to A+ by S&P, stable outlook
S&P has downgraded AXA’s rating from AA- to A+, with a stable outlook.
GLAXOSMITHKLINE, Anoro Ellipta filed in the US
Unlike dolugretavir, which was filed yesterday in the US, Europe and Canada but we did not
comment upon although it is a clear opportunity for ViiV Healthcare (cf. our Daily after the R&D
update), the filing of Anoro Ellipta announced yesterday for the US is more relevant than it may look.
HOLCIM, Good performance potential in 2013!
In 2012, Holcim’s share price lagged behind both Lafarge and Heidelbergcement. Holcim is up 15%
relative to the DJSTOXX Construction Materials whereas it is +51% for Lafarge and +19% for
Heidelbergcement. We believe Holcim should post a decent performance in 2013 driven not only by
its cost-cutting programme, “leadership journey”, but also given its superior geographical mix.
LVMH, Illness forces LV CEO to quit and Michael Burke steps into new CEO role at Louis
Vuitton
LVMH announced yesterday that Jordi Constans is leaving Louis Vuitton where he had been CEO
since November 2012. He joined LV in February 2012 having been Executive-VP of Danone’s fresh
dairy products. His departure is due to ill health which prevents him from carrying out this
demanding job.
MERCK KGAA, Stimuvax did not meet its primary endpoint in START
Merck KGaA announced this morning that the phase III START trial studying Stimuvax in patients with
unresectable, locally advanced stage IIIA or IIIB non small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) did not meet its
primary endpoint to demonstrate a statistically significant improvement in overall survival. The
complete results of the study will be presented during a future scientific congress.
SHIRE PLC, Positive outcome from the European Decentralised Procedure for Elvanse
Yesterday, Shire announced a “positive outcome” from the European Decentralised Procedure for
Elvanse known as Vyvanse in the US in the Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder indication.
Technical Analysis :
BG Hotels chart #6 : Business Confidence Index Consolidation that sounds better for Revpar
prospects?
19/12/12
D J F M A M J J A S O N D
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STOXX EUROPE 600 E - PRICE INDEX
MAV 50D MAV 200D Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
BG’s Wake Up Call
19 December 2012 2
Sector View
IT Software & Services Oracle's Q2 FY13 results: positive read-across for European Software vendors
1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/11
Softw.& Comp. SVS 8.2% 7.8% 26.5% 41.4%
DJ Stoxx 600 6.2% 1.5% 14.3% 14.2%
*Stoxx Sector Indices
Companies covered
ALTEN BUY EUR29
Last Price EUR26.62 Market Cap. EUR862m
ALTRAN TECHNOLOGIES BUY EUR5.9
Last Price EUR5.3 Market Cap. EUR767m
ATOS NEUTRAL EUR56
Last Price EUR53.57 Market Cap. EUR4,562m
CAPGEMINI BUY EUR42
Last Price EUR33.625 Market Cap. EUR5,440m
DASSAULT SYSTEMES NEUTRAL EUR83
Last Price EUR84.21 Market Cap. EUR10,488m
GROUPE STERIA BUY EUR14
Last Price EUR14.395 Market Cap. EUR445m
INDRA SISTEMAS SELL EUR8.2
Last Price EUR9.401 Market Cap. EUR1,543m
SAGE GROUP NEUTRAL 320p
Last Price 290.9p Market Cap. GBP3,508m
SAP BUY EUR62
Last Price EUR61 Market Cap. EUR74,929m
SOFTWARE AG SELL EUR28
Last Price EUR32.635 Market Cap. EUR2,834m
SOPRA GROUP BUY EUR48
Last Price EUR44.005 Market Cap. EUR523m
SWORD GROUP CORPORATE EUR17
Last Price EUR12.59 Market Cap. EUR117m
TEMENOS GROUP SELL CHF12
Last Price CHF15.55 Market Cap. CHF1,120m
Yesterday evening Oracle reported Q2 FY13 earnings (FYE 31st
May) slightly above consensus
average and company guidance, and announced an encouraging guidance for Q3 FY13. We view
these numbers as a positive read-across for European Software companies, so we expect positive
share price reactions – even though we need to monitor more closely Oracle’s claimed market
share gains against SAP in Europe.
ANALYSIS
• Oracle earnings slightly above consensus and company guidance. For its quarter ended
30th
November 2012, Oracle reported non-GAAP EPS up 18% to USD0.64 or slightly above
company guidance (USD0.59-0.63) and 5% ahead of the consensus average (USD0.61). Sales
were up 5% at cc to USD9.09bn, at the top-end of the guidance range (+1%/+5% at cc) and 1%
above the consensus average (USD9.01bn). New licence sales and cloud subscriptions grew by
18% at cc (vs. a +6%/+16% guidance range), with Applications, Middleware and Database up
double-digit (more than +30% on Applications). New licence sales and cloud subscriptions were
up 22% at cc (vs. +16% in Q1 FY13) in the Americas, up 12% at cc (vs. +1% in Q1 FY13) in EMEA,
and up 13% at cc (vs. +12% in Q1 FY13) in Asia Pacific, with positive impacts from the RightNow
and Taleo acquisitions, and market share gains in Europe against SAP. On its side, Hardware
sales fell 16% at cc (guidance: -18%/-8% at cc). Q3 FY13 guidance (February 2013 quarter) looks
encouraging, with Oracle expecting total sales up 2-6% at cc, with new licence sales up 4-14% at
cc, hardware sales at -10%/0% at cc, and non-GAAP EPS at USD0.64-0.68.
• Good execution. Oracle continues to execute well, although market conditions remained
difficult. The wave of new product launches (engineered systems, Oracle Fusion Applications,
new databases, Oracle Cloud) offers new opportunities for customers to buy Oracle software to
improve their performance. Revenues from Oracle’s “engineered systems” (Exadata, Exalogic,
Exalytics, Big Data Appliance…) continued to grow significantly (+70% quarter-over-quarter on
unit bookings, Exadata units doubling quarter-over-quarter). Oracle’s Cloud SaaS business is
approaching the USD1bn annual revenue run rate, essentially driven by ERP, HCM and CRM
applications, while Oracle looks to regain positive momentum in Europe thanks to Fusion
applications despite strong pressure on deal conversion rates.
• Positive short-term read-across, market share gains have to be monitored closely. Oracle is
once again performing well despite the tough environment in Europe. As such, we consider this
publication is a positive for the sector as a whole and share price reactions are likely to be
positive for SAP, Dassault Systèmes, Sage, Software AG and Temenos. That said, Oracle’s better
momentum in Europe has to be monitored closely for SAP.
VALUATION
European Software companies are trading at est. 11.6x 2012 and 9.6x 2013 EV/EBIT multiples.
NEXT CATALYSTS
• Accenture’s Q2 FY13 results today after markets close.
• Tibco Software’s final FY12 results on 20th
December after markets close.
• SAP and Software AG may pre-announce FY12 results on 10th
or 11th
January 2013.
Analyst :
Gregory Ramirez
33(0) 1 56 68 75 91
BG’s Wake Up Call
19 December 2012 3
Insurance
AXA Rating downgraded 1 notch to A+ by S&P, stable outlook
Price EUR13.05 Fair Value EUR15.5 (+19%) BUY
Bloomberg CS FP
Reuters AXAF.PA
12-month High / Low (EUR) 13.2 / 8.8
Market Cap (EURm) 30,768
Avg. 6m daily volume (000) 8,587
1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/11
Absolute perf. 13.5% 4.9% 34.3% 29.9%
Insurance 8.7% 6.4% 30.7% 32.3%
DJ Stoxx 600 6.7% 2.4% 14.8% 14.7%
2011 2012e 2013e 2014e
P/E 8.5x 6.9x 6.7x 6.3x
Div yield (%) 5.3% 5.8% 6.0% 6.3%
ANALYSIS
• S&P has downgraded AXA’s rating from AA- to A+, with a stable outlook.
• S&P highlighted AXA’s sensitivity to the economic and financial environment in the Eurozone
(no shit!), but it also recognised that the company has made strategic progress (plan “Ambition
AXA”) and reduced investment risks.
• This is not a total surprise, as the outlook had been negative since January 2012. The question
is: is S&P 1 year late? Other rating agencies may follow suit, as AXA is rated Aa3 with a negative
outlook by Moody’s and AA- with negative outlook by Fitch.
• The downgrade should have a minimum impact on AXA’s business, especially as it is mainly
retail-oriented.
• The good news is that the outlook is now stable, which means S&P does not plan any further
move in the foreseeable future.
• Allianz (AA) and CNP (A+) could be at risk as they have negative outlooks with S&P.
VALUATION
• Based on our current 2013 estimates, our SOTP valuation is EUR15.5.
• The stock is currently trading at a 13% discount on our 2012e P/NAV average.
NEXT CATALYSTS
• FY 2012 numbers on 21st February 2013.
Olivier Pauchaut, [email protected]
Healthcare
GlaxoSmithKline Anoro Ellipta filed in the US
Price 1,361p Fair Value 1530p (+12%) NEUTRAL
Bloomberg GSK LN
Reuters GSK.L
12-month High / Low (p) 1,508 / 1,318
Market Cap (GBP) 66,743
Avg. 6m daily volume (000) 8,367
1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/11
Absolute perf. 3.3% -5.7% -6.4% -7.5%
Healthcare 5.0% 2.8% 10.4% 13.1%
DJ Stoxx 600 6.7% 2.4% 14.8% 14.7%
2011 2012e 2013e 2014e
P/E 11.8x 12.3x 11.1x 10.2x
Div yield (%) 5.5% 5.5% 5.9% 6.2%
ANALYSIS
• Unlike dolugretavir, which was filed yesterday in the US, Europe and Canada but we did not
comment upon although it is a clear opportunity for ViiV Healthcare (cf. our Daily after the R&D
update), the filing of Anoro Ellipta announced yesterday for the US is more relevant than it may
look.
• Anoro Ellipta is the brand name for the LABA/LAMA fixed-dose combination in the US and it has
long been a debate among the investment community as to whether GSK would be in a position
to file shortly with the FDA considering that Novartis suffered a delay of 2 years (additional trial
needed) until 2014. Although Andrew Witty reiterated several times his confidence in the product
and pointed out the differences to Novartis’s drug, it was never clearly said that the regulatory
process due to begin in December included the US in a first round. Now it is clear and GSK is
delivering on promises as the group has always stated that it had a true once-daily product. Filing
does not mean approval but GSK is now more than likely to have a head start with this
combination in the US, which is a key market historically for its Respiratory franchise (47% in 2012
estimated). Together with Relvar and the monotherapies, it will help the transition from an
Advair-dependent situation into a more diversified franchise, moreover considering that Advair is
not so quickly at-risk there.
• The situation in Europe will probably be significantly different. On one hand competition from
generics on Advair is likely to emerge sooner, and as soon as 2013; on the other hand, Novartis
will be a stronger competitor as it can build on its Xolair expertise but also may have a slight
calendar advantage with its LABA/LAMA combination by a few months.
• GSK’s respiratory franchise is strategic to the group (34% of ex-CH revenues and likely an even
greater part of the profits) and nervousness around it is logical. Nevertheless we are
considering that GSK is not in so bad a shape globally and that it should at least maintain its
positions although at the price of a lower profitability (wider range, profit-sharing with
partners, competition).
Eric Le Berrigaud, [email protected]
BG’s Wake Up Call
19 December 2012 4
Construction & Building Materials
Holcim Good performance potential in 2013!
Price CHF65.15 Fair Value CHF70 (+7%) BUY
Bloomberg HOLN VX
Reuters HOLZn.VX
12-month High / Low (CHF) 65.8 / 49.4
Market Cap (CHFm) 21,310
Avg. 6m daily volume (000) 741.0
1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/11
Absolute perf. 7.0% 3.0% 30.4% 29.7%
Cons & Mat 10.2% 2.2% 17.2% 12.8%
DJ Stoxx 600 6.2% 1.5% 14.3% 14.2%
2011 2012e 2013e 2014e
P/E 20.0x 18.5x 14.6x 11.2x
Div yield (%) 1.5% 1.5% 1.8% 2.3%
ANALYSIS
• In 2012, Holcim’s share price lagged behind both Lafarge and Heidelbergcement. Holcim is up
15% relative to the DJSTOXX Construction Materials whereas it is +51% for Lafarge and +19%
for Heidelbergcement. We believe Holcim should post a decent performance in 2013 driven not
only by its cost-cutting programme, “leadership journey”, but also given its superior
geographical mix.
• The “leadership journey” savings should deliver in 2013. In 2012, Holcim’s “leadership
journey” was disappointing, in our view. We believe this was linked to implementation issues as
well as the late arrival of Bernard Fontana (who obviously needed time before making
decisions). Therefore, we are confident the group will deliver in 2013. As a matter of
comparison, in 2012 Lafarge delivered about 30% of its expected plan over 2012-15 (EUR400m
out of EUR1.3bn) whereas Holcim will only have delivered 12% (CHF120m out of CHF1.0bn).
• Holcim has the better mix of the sector as well as the status of best in class. The group’s
EBITDA exposure to Europe is limited to 22% compared to 31% and 40% for Lafarge and
Heidelbergcement respectively (incl. Eastern Europe). Emerging market exposure is also the
largest with 70% of group’s EBITDA compared to 66% and 52% for Heidelbergcement.
• Finally, the group has already announced the bad news related to asset depreciation on 17th
December. Holcim has already announced an asset depreciation of CHF410m whereas we still
don’t know how much the asset depreciation will be for Lafarge and Heidelbergcement…
VALUATION
• FV unchanged at CHF70. Holcim is trading at a 2013e EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.2x, i.e. a
7%discount relative to its 2007 historic average. Our DCF assumes a WACC of 9.2%, a growth
rate to perpetuity of 3.0% and a normalised EBIT margin of 14.5%.
Sven Edelfelt, [email protected]
Luxury & Consumer Goods
LVMH Illness forces LV CEO to quit and Michael Burke steps into new CEO role at Louis Vuitton
Price EUR138.05 Fair Value EUR155 (+12%) BUY
Bloomberg MC FP
Reuters LVMH.PA
12-month High / Low (EUR) 140.0 / 104.5
Market Cap (EURm) 70,091
Avg. 6m daily volume (000) 828.8
1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/11
Absolute perf. 11.6% 11.0% 16.6% 26.2%
Pers& H/H Gds 5.3% 5.3% 11.5% 21.4%
DJ Stoxx 600 6.7% 2.4% 14.8% 14.7%
2011 2012e 2013e 2014e
P/E 22.6x 19.9x 17.9x 16.6x
Div yield (%) 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.5%
ANALYSIS
• LVMH announced yesterday that Jordi Constans is leaving Louis Vuitton where he had been
CEO since November 2012. He joined LV in February 2012 having been Executive-VP of
Danone’s fresh dairy products. His departure is due to ill health which prevents him from
carrying out this demanding job.
• Meanwhile, Bernard Arnault has appointed Michael Burke as the new Louis Vuitton Chairman
and CEO and is also joining LVMH group’s Executive Committee. He has worked with Bernard
Arnault since 1986 when he became CEO of Christian Dior USA until 1993. From 1993 to 1997,
he joined the Louis Vuitton brand as CEO ofLV USA and he was appointed at the head of Dior
Couture from 1997 to 2003, and then he became Fendi’s CEO. In February 2012, he became
CEO of the Bulgari brand.
• In our view, Michael Burke is the best choice to stand in for Jordi Constans. Indeed, he
successfully turned around the Italian brand Fendi, which was loss-making in 2003 and has now
reached an operating margin close to 20% on our estimates. It is worth saying that Fendi has
sales of around EUR1bn. Consequently, he has been working for many years with Bernard
Arnault and he has a clear legitimacy to manage LV that has sales over EUR7bn (~26% of total
LVMH sales) and accounts for c.50% of the group’s recurring EBIT.
VALUATION
• At 11.0x EV/EBIT 2013e, the share is trading globally in line with sector average but has a 13%
discount vs. the 2003-2012 historical average.
NEXT CATALYSTS
• LVMH should release its FY12 sales and results by early February 2013.
Cédric Rossi, [email protected]
BG’s Wake Up Call
19 December 2012 5
Healthcare
Merck KGaA Stimuvax did not meet its primary endpoint in START
Price EUR101.55 Fair Value EUR96 (-5%) NEUTRAL
Bloomberg MRK GY
Reuters MRCG.DE
12-month High / Low (EUR) 106.6 / 72.4
Market Cap (EURm) 22,078
Avg. 6m daily volume (000) 250.1
1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/11
Absolute perf. 4.5% 8.2% 31.0% 31.8%
Healthcare 5.0% 2.8% 10.4% 13.1%
DJ Stoxx 600 6.7% 2.4% 14.8% 14.7%
2011 2012e 2013e 2014e
P/E 14.9x 13.6x 12.1x 11.2x
Div yield (%) 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1%
ANALYSIS
• Merck KGaA announced this morning that the phase III START trial studying Stimuvax in
patients with unresectable, locally advanced stage IIIA or IIIB non small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)
did not meet its primary endpoint to demonstrate a statistically significant improvement in
overall survival. The complete results of the study will be presented during a future scientific
congress.
• Stimuvax targeted the MUC1 protein antigen which is over expressed in the cytoplasmic
membrane of tumour cells. Although its function remains unknown, MUC 1 in tumour tissue is
associated with reduced apoptosis, immunosuppression and resistance to chemotherapy.
• Although Merck had underlined during the first quarter that an Independent Committee had
confirmed that the trial could proceed to its conclusion, we preferred not to factor any
forecasts for this vaccine in our model in light of the relatively low number of patients enrolled
in the phase II trial, the design of the phase III and the previous results.
VALUATION
• At this point, the current share price would suggest a part of the R&D pipeline of the company
is already factored in. Even if consensus expectations for Stimuvax were low (only USD168m in
2018), we think that the share price is likely to suffer today.
• We maintain our Neutral recommendation with a fair value at EUR96.
NEXT CATALYSTS
• Atacicept phase II in SLE in the next few weeks.
Martial Descoutures, [email protected]
Healthcare
Shire PLC Positive outcome from the European Decentralised Procedure for Elvanse
Price 1,923p Fair Value 2200p (+14%) BUY
Bloomberg SHP LN
Reuters SHP.L
12-month High / Low (p) 2,300 / 1,727
Market Cap (GBPm) 10,754
Avg. 6m daily volume (000) 1,788
1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/11
Absolute perf. 11.2% 1.2% 1.5% -14.3%
Healthcare 4.8% 3.0% 11.2% 12.8%
DJ Stoxx 600 6.2% 1.5% 14.3% 14.2%
2011 2012e 2013e 2014e
P/E 17.5x 14.8x 14.6x 12.8x
Div yield (%) 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
ANALYSIS
• Yesterday, Shire announced a “positive outcome” from the European Decentralised Procedure
for Elvanse known as Vyvanse in the US in the Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder
indication. The UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency is the reference
authority of seven other European countries participating in the procedure including Denmark,
Finland, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Spain and Sweden. This decentralised procedure is less
common than the centralised procedure but it is explained by the company as an opportunity
to accelerate the European approval in the target markets of Northern Europe where the
market is already developed. In this unusual procedure, each individual country will then
determine the final conditions for access to the market which will happen in the coming
months.
• The European market is clearly less attractive than the US market (European practitioners do
not favour CNS stimulant treatments, for instance the sales of Ritalin correspond to 2/3rds US
and 1/3rd ROW market) and the sales of the drug will not achieve USD1bn as is the case in the
US this year. However we consider that the market represents an opportunity for the company.
Indeed, the European ADHD market represents around USD500m and the growth rate is in
double digits.
VALUATION
• At this point, we expect a “global” launch of the drug in the European markets during the
second quarter of 2013 (previously expected during the first quarter). We factor a peak sales of
Elvanse of USD200m in 2020 vs USD300m expected by the consensus.
NEXT CATALYSTS
• Clinical results of HGT Intrathecal Programs (phase I/II) in the next few weeks.
Martial Descoutures, [email protected]
BG’s Wake Up Call
19 December 2012 6
Technical Research – BG Derivatives Team
Index Sectors LAST % change Index Sectors LAST % change
EUROSTOXX50 2643.5 0.59 Automobiles 350.3 0.38 Insurance 176.25 0.24
STOXX600 280.46 0.46 Banks 163.01 0.97 Media 189.08 0.58
Stoxx 200 LARGE 294.77 0.4 Basics resources 464.98 1.28 Oil & gas 324.14 0.17
Stoxx 200 MID 281.35 0.78 Chemicals 669.43 0.27 Personal & household 513.55 -0.06
Stoxx 200 SMALL 181.49 0.68 Construction & mat. 258.48 0.86 Retail 273.96 0.69
Euro Stoxx 50 TREND Reverse Level Financial services 250.68 0.58 Technology 231.02 0.96
Short Term -1 Month BULL 2530 Food & beverage 459.49 0.03 Telecom 226.82 -0.3
Medium Term - 3 Months BULL 2430 Health & care 491.82 0.22 Travel & leisure 146.93 0.53
Long Term -10 Months BULL 2260 Industrial goods & serv. 338.55 0.8 Utilities 259.68 0.72
ES50 resistances 2690/2710, 2780, 2810, 2850, 2880, 2910
ES50 supports 2590, 2560, 2530, 2490, 2440, 2410/2390, 2360, 2330/10, 2260/40
Good morning,
Increase of 0.6% to 2643 for the ES50 still mainly led by cyclicals and banks. The next target is bullish at 2680/2710.
We note again our invalidation threshold of the upward trend on the 1 month horizon as being 2560 against 2530 before.
The Eurodollar is free of resistance between MT 1.3140/70 to target 1.3490 as first goal.
Thierry Huteau
+33 1 70 91 12 94
BG’s Wake Up Call
19 December 2012
Bryan Garnier stock rating system For the purposes of this Report, the Bryan Garnier stock rating system is defined as follows:
Stock rating
BUY Positive opinion for a stock where we expect a favourable performance in absolute terms over a period of 6 months from the publication of a
recommendation. This opinion is based not only on the FV (the potential upside based on valuation), but also takes into account a number of
elements including a SWOT analysis, positive momentum, technical aspects and the sector backdrop. Every subsequent published update on the stock
will feature an introduction outlining the key reasons behind the opinion.
NEUTRAL Opinion recommending not to trade in a stock short-term, neither as a BUYER or a SELLER, due to a specific set of factors. This view is intended to
be temporary. It may reflect different situations, but in particular those where a fair value shows no significant potential or where an upcoming binary
event constitutes a high-risk that is difficult to quantify. Every subsequent published update on the stock will feature an introduction outlining the key
reasons behind the opinion.
SELL Negative opinion for a stock where we expect an unfavourable performance in absolute terms over a period of 6 months from the publication of a
recommendation. This opinion is based not only on the FV (the potential downside based on valuation), but also takes into account a number of
elements including a SWOT analysis, positive momentum, technical aspects and the sector backdrop. Every subsequent published update on the stock
will feature an introduction outlining the key reasons behind the opinion.
Distribution of stock ratings
BUY ratings 49.5% NEUTRAL ratings 30.3% SELL ratings 20.2%
Bryan Garnier Research Team
HealthcareTeam Eric Le Berrigaud 33 (0) 1 56 68 75 33 [email protected]
Mathieu Chabert 33 (0) 1 70 36 57 45 [email protected]
Martial Descoutures 33 (0) 1 56 68 75 18 [email protected]
Consumer Goods Peter Farren 33 (0) 1 56 68 75 72 [email protected]
Loïc Morvan 33 (0) 1 70 36 57 24 [email protected]
Cedric Rossi 33 (0) 1 70 36 57 25 [email protected]
Beverage Nikolaas Faes 33 (0) 1 56 68 75 22 [email protected]
IT Services Gregory Ramirez 33 (0) 1 56 68 75 91 [email protected]
Insurance Olivier Pauchaut 33 (0) 1 56 68 75 49 [email protected]
Hotels/Business Services Bruno de la Rochebrochard 33 (0) 1 56 68 75 88 [email protected]
Utilities/Renewables Julien Desmaretz 33 (0) 1 56 68 75 92 [email protected]
Construction & Concessions Sven Edelfelt 33 (0) 1 70 36 57 17 [email protected]
A copy of the Bryan Garnier & Co Limited conflicts policy in relation to the production of research is available at www.bryangarnier.com
London
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