Plain Truth 1973 (Prelim No 09) Oct_w

7/28/2019 Plain Truth 1973 (Prelim No 09) Oct_w

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a magazine o f unders tand ing


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Do YOU see a bright futureahead? For you? For humanity?Personally, I do - and if you canjoin me in saying that, you are onein a hundred thousand!Where is any good news today?Where is any future to be found in

nations developing nuclear weaponswhich can erase all human, animaland plant life from the earth?Where is any hope to be found inthe wretchedness, ignorance, poverty, squalor and filth in which morethan half the world's populationlives? Where is any joyous anticipation to be found in prosperous"have" nations where sources ofdrinking water - the rivers andlakes - are being polluted and theair we breathe is being befouled, thesoil is worn out and contaminatedand the foods are being robbed ofnutrition in food factories; wherehomes and families are being broken up, crime is rapidly increasing,racial problems and violence areerupting, and sickness and mentaldisturbances multiplying?Where is happiness today? Sixty

years ago, driving along countryroads in Iowa, I saw and heardfarmers plowing behind teams of

Personal from

Hope for the Futuretion that by ignoring the dangersthey will somehow go away.There is a CAuSE for every effect.There is a CAUSE for the state ofthe world today. And there has to bea CAUSE that will produce the peaceful and happy world tomorrow.There had to be a first cause for thevery existence of matter, of life, offorces and energies . But today, it isconsidered "intellectual" to be willingly IGNORANT of that. I have saidbefore that in the first two centuriesof the so-called Christian era , it waspopular to embrace gnosticism meaning, "we know." But today, itis popular to embrace agnosticism

divine nature; the other, the way ofhuman nature. The one is the wayof humility; the other, of vanity.This world - all civilization this world's society - is based on thehostile, competitive, SELF-centeredway. It has produced every wail ofhuman woe. It is the way that nowthreatens the extinction of humanity.This all means one thing . Man,imbued with human nature, is ut-terly UNABLE to solve his problems:He can only worsen problems andcreate new ones. By the "knowledge" and efforts of man, this worldis doomed and hopeless.Is there, then, nothing to live for?


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N OT SINCE the United States emerged as theworld 's premier power from the ashes of WorldWar II has its global prestige been at such a lowpoint.The current crisis between Western Europe and theUnited States goes far beyond the Watergate affair andits damaging impact upon the confidence in U. S. leadership overseas. It can be attributed primarily to America's orientation - or disorientation - in foreign affairsbeginning in the early 1960's.During the dozen frustrating years of the Vietnamexperience, Washington's ties with Europe becamestrained, links with Japan rusted and Africa was vir

tually ignored, while much of Latin America becameopenly antagonistic.In a touch of bitter irony, Washington's relationswarmed up with North Vietnam's two principle suppliers and spiritual advocates, the Soviet Union and thePeople's Republic of China. It is now no secret that ~ ~relations between Washington and Moscow - which Dare now to include annual, wide-ranging summit con- I . I nerences - are in many ways better than those between UWashington and Paris, Bonn, Brussels or Tokyo, forthat matter.Nowhere has the effect of this "friend-swapping"been more serious than in the nations of Western Eu- INTHEope. During those same Vietnam years, the U. S. dol-lar , coveted earlier

~ ~ a : g : r ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ d ~ t ~ ATLANTIC ALLIANCEecame virtually un- 1-\ Iwanted. Tens of bil-lions of surplus American greenbacks, by-products of atidal wave of U. S. business investment, now constitute To Washington policy-makers,


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DOLARr o ~ t ~

RU I N E:

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eration of the Community's ext remely controversial CommonAgricultural Policy (CAP).The United States, dependentupon increased sales of its agricultural bounty to pay for burgeoningoil imports, would like to see the

with all the protectionist devices, exchange controls, tariffs, and quotasthat made thel930's a nightmare."Xother thorn in the side of theAtlantic partnership is thedivergence of views overpower, upholding with Canada "onepillar" of the oceanic alliance, quitenaturally prefers a single approach.Its officials prefer to treat monetary,trade and military problems in oneoverall package.On the other side are the Euro


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HERALDED as the "Year of Europe, "1973 instead found Europe facingcontinued internal con fl ic ts and a growing rif t with its chief ally, the Uni tedStates. Far left: In April 30 ,000 Frenchfarmers hoisted signs of protest againstthe dollar - "the ruin of the Europeanfarmer." Center : The devaluation ofthe dollar in February caught manyAmerican tourists off guard . Top r ight :The North Atlantic Treaty Organizationfound itself the sub ject of popularanti-NATO demonstrations earlier thisyear, such as th is one in Copenhagen.Bottom right: A meeting of the NATOCouncil. A growing controversy in1973 involved how much EuropeanNATO members should pay for U.S.troops stationed on European soil.

For left : Henr i Bureau - GammaCenter: Alo;n Dejean - SygmaTop and bo ttom right:Black Star - Courtesy NATO

Europe's present co urse, Mr.Nixon sa id, cou ld only lead to"deadlock, with the prospect of constant conflict" on economic and financial issues.

r. Nixon obviously felt

both sides of the Atlantic, Dr. Kissinger insisted that "the gradual accumulation of some times petty,sometimes major economic disputes,must be ended and be replaced by adetermined commitment on bothsides of the Atlantic to find coopera

to a devastated Europe, lying pronebefore the threat of the Red Army.Today, the Uni ted States is suggesting cooperation with a rebuilt, power fu l and strongly competitiveEurope.


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policy, believe French experts,would only grant the United Statesundue advantage in importantworld trade and monetary talks.A writer in France's most influential evening paper, Le Monde, put itmost bluntly: "ForWestern Europe,accepting such an alignment wouldamount to ratifying her commercialweakness, her economic dependence, her military insignificance

and her political effacement. Th iswould be to renounce herself for along time, perhaps forever ."Jtericans as a whole would. probably, be quite shockedat the extremely blunt language directed toward Americanpolicies - especially monetary ones- in the French press. Phrases suchas America 's "attacks" and "tradeoffensives" are liberally employed.Perhaps the epitome of bitingFrench fiscal logic to date appearedin the financial supplement of LeMonde in the Spring of 1973. Theheadline read "Monnaie de Singe."Translated into English, it means"monkey money ." The author of the

article , Roger Bernos, declares:"Europeans [and Japanese] havefinally discovered with stupefaction

come. For it is essential that oneshould have stored good grain andnot light straw."

U ndoubtedly, the French arethe most outspoken European critics of Americanforeign policy. But . as a leadingFrench economist himself pointsout, "Often the French say out loudwhat many other Europeans are silently thinking but cannot say."Such "silent thinking" is obvi

ously occurring in West Germany.In March of this year, roughly onemonth after the second official dollar devaluation, an opinion poll reported that only 47 percent of theGermans considered the UnitedStates the most important countryfor Bonn to have good relationswith. This was down sharply fromthe 79 percent of a year ago.Not helping matters are recentscattered remarks of mayors and ofthe local officials, especially insouthern Germany, who have beenopenly critical of the "permanent"stationing of nearby U. S. army gar

risons. The West German federalgovernment views such protests asonly adding fuel to the fire of theargument of American senators who

anti-Americanism, since it manifestsitself only rarely clearly. It is in theair like an odour, and not a goodone; an exudation out of the sub-. conscious. In the same way therewas an anti-semitism in the air inGermany in the twenties, and in thefifties it was anti-communism."The liberal Frankfurter Rund-schau put the development inproper perspective. It conceded thatU. S. popularity - like the dollar has been devalued in Germany.But, the paper said, "Europe stillne eds America" because " theU.S.A. still plays the main role inworld politics."

T he increasingly open, criticalfeelings expressed by Alliance members have someofficials on both sides of the 'oceandeeply concerned. Former U. S. ambassador to the European Community , J. Rober t Schae tzel (seeaccompanying interview), has beencontinually warning of the growthof an "adversary relationship" between Europe and the UnitedStates .What worries him is that "noone really seems to care" what ishappening and that precious little isbeing done at the present time to


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...BUTWHO SPEAKS FOR EUROPE?A CONVERSATION WITH J. ROBERT SCHAETZELJ. ROBERT SCHAETZEL served six

years as U. S. Ambassador to th e European Community, or Common Mar

ket, un til Octobe r 1972. He retiredfrom governmenta l serv ice onemonth later, hav ing served the Sta te

Department for 27 years , much ofth e time as a specialist on Atlantic af

fairs and international trade . Mr.Schaetzel has many close friends inEurope and is widely recognized andappreciated on th e Continent as an

America n who understands th e European view on th e many sensitive issues affecting th e Atlantic Alliance .He is presently writing a book undert he auspices of th e Council on Fore ign Relations, suggesting whatU. S. po licy should be, vis-a-vis th e

enlarged European Community.Photos by Dexter FaulknerTo assess the cur rent s ta tus ofU. S.-West European affairs,Plain Truth Assoc ia te Edi torGene H. Hogberg talked withformer United States Ambassador to the European

which is variously called the "European Community," "Common Market" or "United States of Europe."The hallmark of the European sceneis preoccupation with their own in-ternal affairs . I would say almost the


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trations have had in a united Europe as a political objective. That'snot what government officials say.They say they are still in favor of it- but it is said with less enthusiasm.The important point is that the Europeans don 't believe the U. S. government has the conviction whichprevious administrations have had.Q. A recent GaDup poD, commissionedand paid for bythe Common Market,, indicated that 55% of the Americanpublic still doesn't knowwhat the 15year-old Common Market is. Whathas been your experience on this, inyour contacts across America?SCHAETZEL: I have found that thereis still vast ignorance regarding theCommon Market in th e U. S.among the general public , althoughnot so much among the people andaudiences I'm more often in contactwith. Since I left Brussels in October1972, I have spent a great deal oftime traveling around the U. S.,speaking to various groups. Out ofthis experience, I've been struck by

Nothing like it had ever been attempted before. And then , ofcourse , by 1958 came the De Gaullephenomenon. De Gaulle came backinto power, and France, which hadreally initiated the whole affair, thenbecame the major problem in theEuropean construction. De Gaullehad never believed in it.Q. it appears as if the CommonMarket, formally established onJanuary 1, 1958, jus t barely got in"under the wire" before De Gaulleresumed power a fewmonths later.SCHAETZEL: As a matter of fact,when De Gaulle came back topower in 1958, there was the fear onthe part of many Europeans, including a large number of French,that he would destroy the wholebusiness then and there. The factthat he didn't astonished them. Butnonetheless, from 1958 until about1968, the question was really thesurvival of the European Community rather than how far it could bepushed along.

and target dates for the Community.They talk about wanting to achievevarious policies by 1980 or 1985. . . .SCHAETZEL: They set targets , andtargets are useful. They mayor maynot make them, but at least they'retrying to maintain a momentum.But you made an observation aboutthe differing views among the various European member states. Thisis certainly true. The sharpest impression I have - the essence of theEuropean story that I came backwith from my last trip - was of thegreat confusion among Europeans.Among the people intimately involved in the whole process of European construction, there is nocommon strategy, common policy oracknowledged leader to whom thegood and true turn for advice orguidance as to what to do next.Q. But what about the vast "Eurocracy" centered at Common Market headquarters in Brussels?SCHAETZEL: The institutions of theCommunity are relatively weak.


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leadership , and not only that ,people seem to be content with it.All of this is bound to be quite discouraging to those whose goal is aunited Europe.Q. Isn't this lack of central leadership or authority the very thingthat frustrates the Americans somuch in their dealings with the Common Market?SCHAETZEL: That's right, and manyof the things said not only by thisadministration but by previous ad

regarding the whole gamut of U. S.Common Market problems. I don'tsense the same degree of outspokenness in the West German or evenBritish press, although the latter hasbeen very critical of Mr. Nixon during the Watergate affair.SCHAETZEL: Unfortunately, it is alltoo true . France is a most difficultpartner, both for the Europeans andacross the Atlantic. I t is ubiquitousin its resistance to efforts to improveAtlantic relations. A good French

in certain cases quite crudely,strongly held European attitudes.Q. The French editor of a Europeanbusiness magazine recently statedtha t the French often say out loudwhat others are thinking, but areafraid to say.SCHAETZEL: That is correct. On theother hand , th ere is somethingwhich is really peculiarly Frenchand much less understandable.For a country which prides itselfon logic, I am staggered by things soinherently illogical in much of theFrench approach to internationalaffairs. For instance, the French arein the forefront ofwanting a Europewhich is able to deal independentlyand co-equally with the rest of theworld. Therefore, they are in favorof a united Europe, so they say. Andyet to have a Europe which reallyworks, having strong institutionsbased on a sufficient delegation ofnational sovereignty, the French devotethemselves to frustrating the veryefforts tomove in that directi on. Theyset up the ultimate contradiction.


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policy." This is because of its historic ties to the East and - going backto the Bismarckian period - the notion of Germany as a bridge between the East and the West.The French approach encouragesthese forces in Germany which could

be incredibly dangerous, not only forWestern Europe itself but for European and world security. There hadbeen a hope that after the recentFrench elections, Pompidou wouldhave felt that he did not need to caterto the ul tra-nat ionalistic Gaullistsany longer.This has not turned out tobe the case. The present situationbetween France and her partners isas bad as it was five or six years ago,during the low point at the end of theGaullist regime.

Germany's DilemmaQ. You mentioned "incredibly dangerous" forces that could become aserious problem in West Germany.Could you clarify what you mean?SCHAETZEL: First, there are certainelements within the SPD [the Social

mediate self-interest of Germany"- this is their concept. These are alldisintegrating conceptions, and theycould weaken Germany's commitment to the Western Allianceand cause it to turn away from theEuropean Community.

Where Does Japan Fit In?Q. It was interesting to note that inDr. Kissinger's address to the editorsof the Associated Press on April 23,in which he called for a new Atlanticcharter, he mentioned that accommodations have to be made for Japan; that Japan, though not anAtlantic power, is nevertheless a verypowerful, dynamic force in the worldtoday. How do the Japanese complicate the matter we've been discussing?SCHAETZEL: They've introduced anelement which none of us antici pated ten years ago, and that is thevitality of their economic system,their capacity to compete - and notprimarily by any discriminatory orunfair measures. We dangerously

going to have to be based on a newrelationship among Japan, the European Community and the UnitedStates. It needs to be emphasizedthat to accomplish this will involvevery hard work. The Europeans,who have a lesser fund of knowledge about Japan than do theAmericans, have an even longerroad to travel than the U. S. Yet thedisturbing thing is that in Kissinger's speech, the one you mentioned, the Japanese reference was akind of after-thought. He talkedabout many things and then said , ineffect, "Oh yes, we must involve theJapanese too." I feel that either Japan should not have been dealt withat all in this speech , or else it oughtto have been done in a much morethoughtful and subtle manner. All itdid was increase the alarms amongthe Europeans. And even the Japanese didn't like it. In short, the reference to Japan seemed remarkablyinept and ill-conceived .

Europeans Fear Washington-Moscow Collusion


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ropeans have done and in manycases what you've 'urged us to do."But there's probably more than aquantitative difference in the varying approaches of the Americansand the Europeans to East-West detente. There's a quali tative difference as well, in that the Americansuperpower is developing very closeand continuing ties with the Sovietsuperpower in a whole range ofrelationships: defense, politics and

the world order really worries mostresponsible, thought ful Europeans. Iwas asked about it again and againon my most recent trip. It suggeststo them a system resting on international amor ality - as De Gaullesaid, countries have interests, notfriends. What Europeans extractfrom all this is that the U. S. is moving in the direction of a kind ofbalance-of-power system in which itlooks at Western Europe, the Soviet

power idea the notion that the U. S.appears to be rejecting this fundamentalviewpoint.Thesearesomeof thethings which make them uneasy andflow from the mysterious relationship, as they see it,which seems to beevolving between the United Statesand the Soviet Union.Q. You are presently engaged inwriting a book based largely on youryears of service as U. S. Ambassadorto the European Community. What


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EDITOR'S NOTE:Our regional editor Ray Kosanke files this two-part re-por t f rom Brussels inconjunction with John Karlson in West Germany, DavidPrice in England, Philip San-dron in France and BernardAnd rist in Switzerland. Thefirst part discloses what th eEuropean family thinks ofAmericans today. The secondhalf touches the one majorconcern confronting Europeans

PART 1

WHATEUROPEANSTHINK OFAMERICAI T ' S AN AGE of instantaneouscommunication. People theworld over can watch Americanastronauts on their TV screens walking on the moon or circling theearth. The United States finds itsevery move scrut inized by nationsaround the world.Whether the United States likes itor not, it is still the leading power inthe Western world. Its natural re

sources, large population, economiccapacity and military might all worktogether to force upon it a positionof leadership. This is a positionwhich increasing numbers of Americans neither desire to have nor wish

chomping on a big cigar and simultaneously shouting orders into twoor three telephones.The older generation in Europe

carries the memory of American soldiers who twice came to the rescueof Europe. For these people, the image is still a good one ; present scandals and economic problems havenot erased the warmth and appreciation many feel for America.

But the majority of Europeanstoday are under 30 years of age. Forthem, Wor ld Wars I and II, American soldiers and the Marshal l Planare all items read about in the classroom. Present reality is a twicedevalued dollar, unbelievable political scandals and a rebuilt Europeseeking its own identity and place inthe world.The fact that Americans have

done little to support their own currency in the last few years has produced considerable grumbling inEurope. While a devalued dol lar atleast temporarily means more exports and a bet ter t rade balance forthe United States, in Europe, a weakand floating dollar plays havoc withthe entire system of internationaltrade because it is the standard ofexchange used by all. Internationalt rade is Europe's bread and butter

I

IIII


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Ray Kosanke - Pla;n TruthTHE BERLAYMONT, European Community headquarters, Brussels, Belgium.

whether conditions in the States arethat much better after all. FromFrance came the reaction thatFrenchmen were not at all enviousof life in the United States . It wasseen as too mechanized and too urbanized. The French, in fact, are

versa, a recent poll in the United. States revealed that fully 55 percentof all Americans polled had nevereven hea rd of the European Community or Common Market!To the French, Watergate itselfwas not particularly surprising, only

of the United States "in spite ofeverything ." He felt Americans"were an agreeable, hardworkingand efficient people." A Belgiancommented that the Watergate affair showed the strong and positiverole played by a free press in theUnited States.Asked whether the United Statesas a nation has lost its credibility, asignificant number replied that thecountry as a whole has not, but thatPresident Nixon himself has indeed.In any event, it was stressed, Europehas no choice but to deal with theUnited States, for it is a worldpower and European nations arenot. Dependency on the UnitedStates is one reality Europe cannotdo without.What concerns many thoughtfulGermans now is whether or notPresident Nixon will be able tomaintain the formidable U. S. contribution to NATO, at a time whenAmerican senators, taking advantage of the Watergate crisis, want todrastically reduce the U. S. commitment.To the Swiss,Watergate appearedunbelievable. "How could such ascandal take place?" Of real concernto the pragmatic Swiss is the fate ofthe pummeled dollar and the insta


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CHEESE FESTIVAL in Alkmaa r, HoIlan d . Tons o f cheese ar e de live redby lo cal fa rmers to who lesale ma rketin town square. Cheeses ar e bought,labeled, and later shipped around theworld. It's all pa rt of the EuropeanCommunity's burgeoning export tradein farm produce which indirectly d rivesup domestic food prices.

John Kilburn - Pla in Truth

the devaluations of the dollar, theWatergate affair, charges against theVice-President, food and fuel shortages, major inflation and social problems from drugs to racial turmoil,Europeans are drawing the conclusion tha t maybe they don't have itso bad after all. And that despite thefact the average European -is basically concerned about the same problems his American cousins are facing- the cost ofliving, and particularly,the cost of food.The growing economic weaknessof the United States is reflected,many Europeans note , inthe fact thatSwitzerland, Sweden, Denmark andGermany all nowhave a higher GNP(Gross National Product) rating on aper capita 'basis than the UnitedStates.The moralroleof the United Stateshas also det eriorated in European


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PART 2EUROPE'S NUMBER ONE CONCERN:

HOW TO MAKEENDS MEET

Debaize - E.E.C.

fronting Europeans reflects theirgrowing apprehension that all is notwell in the economic world.As Europeans feel their livesmore and more affected by soaringprices, insufficient housing andovercrowded, polluted cities, theirsense of well-being is increasinglythreatened.

The man on the street in Europeis not only concerned with soaringprices, but also with the need of astable currency. The currency question is someth ing Europeansstruggle with much more than theirAmerican counterparts, because Europeans must work out currency exchanges every time they, or theirgoods, cross a border.Germans are finding that not onlyare domestic prices skyrocketing,but also their currency has been revalued twice in recent months. Thismeans that their exports cost morein America as well as within theboundaries of the European Comm unity. Germ an exports arethereby less competitive - a blow tonational and individual earnings.One German comment, increasingly true throughout Europe, is:"Without my wife working, wewould not be able to make endsmeet , financially."


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tioned felt the most important problem the government should act on isthe rising cost of living. Thirty-eightpercent specifically pointed to therising cost of food as being the majo r problem. Those polled felt helping the aged was the third biggest. issue facing England today. Fourthwas the problem of housing.The poll further showed a largedefection from support of the rulingConservative Party of Prime Minister Edward Heath. It is "part of acountry-wide rebellion by Conservatives against rising prices."One question in the poll reveals thepolitical implications of people'sstrong feelings about issues thatnegatively affect their standard ofliving. Britons were asked: "Regardless of which party you yourself support , which party do you think willwin the next general election?"In response, only 25 percentthought the ruling ConservativeParty would win, while 50 percentthought the Labour Party wouldwin. Five percent felt the LiberalParty would win, and 20 percentdidn't know. The next general election is scheduled for 1975.Now let's look at Belgium, headquarters of the EEC. Again , the costof living heads the list of the major

concern , Overpopulation to theSwiss means too many foreignersworking in Switzerland. They wantno more , and they wish many ofthem , mainly Italians, would returnhome. In" their view, the foreignworker problem intensifies theother symptoms of economic illnessfacing Europe: an increase in thecost of living, a shortage of housingand, generally, inflation. With fewerforeigners, there would be less inflation. So thinks the average Swiss.In the Netherlands, the possibilityof local drought, sickness in herdsand similar natural disasters arepointed out by one farmer as beingtypical of the insecurities Europeanfarmers face today. His wife's mainconcern is the now familiar "risingprices and the concurrent depreciation in the value of money."The average European's concernis over the issues that immediatelytouch his daily life. For mattersbeyond that sphere, his interest orconcern rapidly tapers off. On suchseemingly important matters as theunification of Europe and the role ofthe European Community, public

apa thy is amazingly widespread.Over the years, inquiries made as towhat individuals thought of theCommunity have drawn little more

politics, just as a healthy persontakes his bodily funct ions for"granted. He's aware of them, butdoesn't bother himself too muchabout them; they take care of themselves."What the average European is directly concerned with are the problems that come home to roost in hispersonal life - especially thosewhich threaten his own pocketbook.In that, he is very similar to hisAmerican, Australian and Canadiancounterparts. He's concerned aboutthe quality of life where he lives, butfeels "too small" to do anythingabout the big political and economicproblems of the world at large.He feels or at least hopes .that thepeople who run his and other nation's governments have enoughwisdom, concern and common senseto keep major national and international problems in check. Yettoday, it's not solely individuals whoare "too small" to cope with theworld's major problems. More andmore, nations themselves are notbig enough to master their own situations in the world. According toGolo Mann: "In the turmoil ofworld events in the 20th century, nocountry is totally in control of itsown destiny. This depends on the


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advancenewsIn the wake of today'5 WORLD EVENTS

Spain Begins Transitionof PowerIn June of this year, Generalissimo FranciscoFranco, Spain's unchallenged head since 1939, turnedover the premiership of Spain and leadership of thecountry's only political party to Vice President LuisCarrero Blanco, 70, a loyal friend and long-time deputy.Admiral Blanco assumed the official title of "President

of Government" and took over the day-to-day administration of the country, though he is still responsible toFranco. The move was viewed as the first step towardFranco's eventual retirement. Franco, now 80, still retains two other top posts in Spain: Chief of State andCommander in Chief of the Armed Forces . He is stillwithout question "EI Caudillo" (The Leader) and continues to make Spain's vital decisions.Carrero's appointment also did not affect the position of Prince Juan Carlos de Borbon , 35, who has beendesignated by Franco to become King of Spain and

to succeed him as Chief of State at his death or retire

We are now in the days of the "economics of scarcity."There are two causes for the current squeeze. TheAmerican economy is presently operating very close to,though not at, capacity. And, more ominously, theworld's stock of wealth has been significantly depletedby the industrial binge the Western world has enjoyedfor the last decade.Proven reserves of nearly all key materials arebeing seriously depleted. The United States, for example, has mined the last of its known reserves ofmanganese and chromium, which are vital to steelmaking. Bauxite, from which aluminum is made , isrunning short. Zinc, lead, mercury, copper, and a hostof other minerals will also be depleted within a fewdecades. .

The United States now imports half of its aluminum, zinc, nickel, and tin. Shortages dominate the economic picture in many other categories such as lumber,paper, cotton, wool, fertilizers , and resins.

What does all this scarcity portend? For one thing,continued price inflation in virtually every category,


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BRUSSELS, BELGIUM"Theil conflict continues.I t is beginning to affectthe whole population;

due to the lack of heating oiland gaso line . The pumps areempty just about everywhere. Yeste rday a few sta tions opened, butby midnight all stations wereclosed by government order for anundetermined period of time." It has now become very serious , especial ly for those whoseheating systems depend on heating oil. They are simply withoutheating. A large number of gradeschools and high schools havebeen closed. Doctors are facingproblems because they can't receive patients in unheated clinics,and the short a ge of gasoline ismaking it difficult to go out onhouse calls. The absence of heating oil is creating a real trauma. Alarge number of people are al

LOOKING INTO THE 1980'S

WHEN EUROPE'SLIGHTS GO OUTby Ray Kosanke


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glaring question mark for the future. Experts around the world arevoicing their growing concern. "Oursociety, our position in the world,and our very way of life is beingthreatened," they increasingly warn.Yet in spite of the many voicesraised in concern, the gravity of thesituation in many corners is not yetapparent. For most, the pinch of areal energy shortage has yet to makeitself felt.James Akins, Director of the U. S.State Department's Office of Fuelsand Energy , titled his 30-page expose published in Foreign Affairsmagazine: "The Oil Crisis: ThisTime the Wolf Is Here ."In August 1972, Akins stated that"today the world is consuming 45million barrels of oil a day, and by1980 that figure will be 80 to 100million bar re ls . We don 't knowwhere this oil will come from."What do these statistics mean inactual fact? The average figure of 90million barrels per day that we areestimated to need 6 years from nowfor total worldwide consumptionwould fill a train of oil tank .carsstretching 3,000 miles (4,827 kilometers) - a train that would stretchcompletely across the United States!The same train would cover the dis

warning that such a consumer's cartel against OPEC (Organization ofPetroleum Exporting Countries)could mean a petroleum "war." After a Middle East tour , YasuhiroNakasone, the head of Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry , said that Japan cannotaccept a "common front" of oilimporting nations.European officials, too, are reluctant to en!er into a unified approachwith the United States for fear thatthe Arabs will boycott them as well.There's another twist to this

dilemma. Due to the huge expenditures the United States willhave to make for oil in the nearfuture, U. S. strategists note that fi-

nancial cutbacks will force majorwithdrawals of U. S. military forcesoverseas - withdrawals that neitherthe United States nor Europe haswanted, in view of the ever-increasing military strength of the U.S.S.R.(which has its own oil reserves).

United States would seek to influence, persuade or force its own oilcompanies to put U. S. interests firstin the event of a serious shortage.On commercial grounds alone, thesecompanies have substantially largermarkets in the United States than inEurope. They could very well feeltha t the United States has a priorclaim on whatever supplies of foreign oil they can secure.These foreign supplies are becoming more and more important. By1985 the United States will be needing close to 12 million barrels a day.imported by sea. Admiral Elmo R.Zumwalt , U. S. Chief of Naval Operations, estimated "this will requirethe equivalent of from several hun-

dred to over 1,000 tankers , each of70,000 tons, fully committed to deliveries of oil to the U. S."Jugular of ModernCivilization

The Middle East, called the

'(


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rope's oil and between 90% and 95%of Japan's oil.The U. S. House Foreign AffairsSubcommittee on the Middle Eastsummed up the seriousness of thissituation in its report: "Never before in the history of mankind haveso many wealthy, industrialized,militarily powerful and large statesbeen at the potential mercy of small,independent and potentially unstable states which will provide , forthe foreseeable future, the fuel ofadvanced societies."

Threa t to Europe's Security?As big a security risk as this dependence on the Middle East represents, European leaders findthemselves without a jointly con

structed energy policy. In fact ,Western Europe finds that its dependency on oil as an energy sourcehas risen from 33% of its total energy requirements in 1960 to over64% at present.Commissioner Henri Simonet, theEuropean Economic Community official responsible for energy, foundhimself straddled with this burdenafter taking.office in January 1973.He has already observed that "thissituation of dependence cannot fail

ously lacking coherent internalenergy policies. One German newspaper, Die Zeit, warned of WestGermany's situation: "It would becatastrophic if our politicians let thecrisis in coal mining distract theirattention away from the greater evilthat threatens us all: a worldwideshortage of fuel and power. If thiscomes in the next few years (as manyexperts fear), the Federal Republicwill be practically unprepared."European nations are presentlyworking separately to attain securesupplies of energy sources. WilhelmHaferkamp, former EEC commissioner for energy affairs, urged acommon policy despite the effectson national sovereignty. He warned,"We cannot wait until the lights inEurope literally go out."The real decision-making power,however, now rests with individualEuropean governments that balk atany potential threat to their nationalsovereignty. The very real threat ofoil shortage has not yet impresseditself upon Europe; the will tocoordinate harmoniously and giveauthority to a central European government simply does not yet exist.The basic reason for this is thatthe governments and peoples of theEEC are not yet willing to transfer

Other Possible SourcesDoes nuclear energy, so often referred to as the answer to all energyneeds, represent independence forEurope? Commissioner Simonetnoted that "a t present, Europe is stilltotally dependent on the U.S.A . forthe supplies of enriched uraniumneeded for its nuclear reactors." Headds: ". . . the uncertainty whichstill hangs over the choice of techniques [for enriching uranium inEurope] is sufficient proof of the fact

the nuclear field is hardly out of theexperimental field."EEC sources note that not until1985 is nuclear power expected tocontribute even 10% to 20% ofWestern Europe's energy needs.Only France expects to have ahigher figure in this category.Important North Sea oil discoveries have been touted as potentiallyfreeing Europe from dependence onthe Middle East. But experts nowsay that even if the North Sea produces 3 million barrels per day by1985, it will account for only aboutone tenth of the total West European consumption.Searching for alternate solutions,experts have eyed Venezuela's million million (one trillion in U. S. ter


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time (the time it takes to actuallyturn the raw material into the usable product) is long - perhaps 15years, certainly 8 - before significant production could be achievedfrom any of these sources ." And thisis assuming a massive program islaunched immediate ly - usingfunds that simply are not available!The Chase Manhattan Bankpointed out earlier this year that, ifenergy demands from now until1985 alone are to be met, costs forthe exploration, processing, trans

portation and marketing of oil willsoar to one million million dollars!The fact is, the Middle East producer nations will soon be the only

source for the massive capitalneeded for the continued researchand development so fundamentallynecessary to keep the world supplied with energy.By 1985, the money Arab nationsand Iran will be earning from oilsales will be nearing the entireworld's present level of official goldreserves and foreign exchange. Asone weekly magazine pointed out,this would be enough money to purchase every issued stock of all theworld's petroleum corporations.It is expected that by 1980 theArab nations and Iran will be earning over 60 thousand million dollars

zon. From where, for instance, arethe United States, Western Europeand Japan going to get all thosebillions to pay for future energy?As it appears now, not only willWestern Europe, the United Statesand Japan.be competing for oil, butto keep their very way of life afloat,they will also be competing to sellthe products produced by industriesmade possible by - yes , youguessed it - OIL.

Oil Is PowerSurprisingly, in a period of history when the Arabs have beennoted for their disunity in the political sphere, they are a growing powerbloc in the commercial world of oil.The obvious relationship betweenoil and politics is not overlooked by

the OPEC. Comprised of nineMiddle East and North African nations plus Indonesia and Venezuela,this group holds two thirds of theworld's proven oil reserves and supplies about 85% of the crude oil consumed in Western Europe and Japan.Since 1970, the O P ~ C has succeeded in raising oil prices some72% over previous levels. The reason for their success is pinpointedby Henri Simonet: "He who is inpossession of energy products is in

serves. As the superpower of worldpetroleum, Saudi Arabia wouldhave to increase production from 7million barrels each day to morethan 20 million barrels per day by1980!Yet it is precisely at this time thatthe Arabs have become increasinglyaware that in the face of the world 'ssoaring demands for oil, even theirgiant reserves are finite - especially .in terms of the next decade or two.They are now beginning to limittheir rate of production. Kuwait'sMinister for Petroleum and Finance, Abdel Rahman Salem al Atiqi explains why: "We are levelingour oil production rate for two reasons: first, to maintain our oil reserves as long as possible and,second, because we don 't see anyreason for turning our oil in theground into money which may fluctuate downward in value . . . . So letus leave the oil in the ground untilwe want to sell it. The value of oilwill not go down."

Oil as a Political WeaponEnter the Arab-Israeli conflict focal point of all Middle East poli

tics. At a meeting of the Arab Defense Council in Cairo earlier thisyear, Iraq's Foreign Minister, Mur


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might curtail oil production in orderto harass the economies of WesternEurope and the United States .At the same time, Kuwait's parliament voted unanimously to cutoff all commitments to Western oilcompanies in the event of renewedfighting between Arab states andIsrael. Libya has followed suit.In April of this year, Harvard- educated Saudi Arabian PetroleumMinister Ahmad Zaki Yamani toldU. S. government officials thatSaudi Arabia will not significantlyexpand its present oil productionunless the United States changes itspro-Israeli stance in the MiddleEast.By the end of 1972, there were atleast 15 different threats by Arabs inresponsible or influential positionsto use their oil as a weapon againsttheir "enemies." These threats areneither empty nor inconsequential.Arab leaders such as Libya'sColonel Muammar Qaddafi arecalling for petroleum revenues to be

diverted into the battle againstIsrael. Qaddafi has recently stated:"The day will come when oil will beused as the ultimate weapon in thebattle."In addit ion to some $200 millionColonel Qaddafi is spending on over

than the spare capacity of the rest ofthe world combined. "In otherwords," as James Akins points out ,"the loss of production of anyone ofthese countries could cause a temporary but significant world oilshortage; the loss of any two couldcause a crisis and possibly a panicamong the consumers."Shortage Has Already BegunAs 1973 began , European headlines read : "Fuel Shortage in U. S.Worsens, Spreads to East Coast."

Newspapers in mid-January reported: "Fuel shortages [in the MidWest] are already acute. Someschools in the area have closed temporarily. . . . Railroads have cuttrain speeds to conserve fuel. Scattered industries have eliminatedshifts or shut down for a few days.Grain is rotting in fields because ofa lack of natural gas to fuel thedryers."After all the facts and figures,what emerges? The recognition byOPEC nations that their reservesare exhaustible and should be conserved.Coupled with this fact is the additional reality of the Arab-Israeliconflict and the growing use of oil asa fulcrum to bend the Western

G. Chauvel - SygmaLibya's Colonel Qaddafi continueshis call for using oil as a weapon inworld politics . leader of the fourthlarges t oil producing nation in NorthAfrica and the Middle East, Qaddafihas emerged as a militant spokesmanfor Arab unity in the struggle withIsrael.

The obvious answer is coordina


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CAN RUSSIA AND THE U.S.REALLY GET ALONG?by Raymond F. McNa ir

What do the United States andthe Soviet Union expect fromcloser relations? Can thesetwo nations really patch uptheir differences?

K SS1A AND the United Stateshave never directly foughteach other in a war. Bothhave , in fact, been allies in war.Why, then, have the UnitedStates and Russia looked suspiciously at each other since the closeof World War II? Why have these

two peoples feared, and at timeshated, each other since the timeboth worked together to bring the

my wife and I made to the SovietUnion. Though the customs , language and architecture may havebeen qui te different from what wewere used to, yet we received thedistinct impression that the averageRussian was very interested in andfriendly toward America.A few weeks before our arrival inthe U.S.S.R., we had to finalizesome travel arrangements with officials of the Russian Embassy inBangkok, Thailand. We were, eventhen , qui te impressed with thefriendliness, if not effusiveness, ofthe Russians whom we met there.The Soviet official at the Bangkok

We checked out of our hotel insufficient time to catch our scheduled Russian plane for London.Since neither my wife nor I speakRussi an , we asked the Englishspeaking concierge at our hotel toplease tell our Russian-speakingtaxi driver to take us to the international airport. We had anythingbut red-carpet treatment en routefrom our hotel to the airport.From the beginning, it appearedto us that we were unfortunate ingetting a not-too-alert taxi driver.(Every country has its share of obtuse taxi drivers!) Our driver tookthe wrong turn and drove us miles


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off.) And we were also told thatthe plane had only one availableseat!I then asked the young Russianairport employee to let me speak tothe airport manager, since I still feltwe ought to be able to get on thatparticular flight, having booked theseats months in advance.She then took me down a labyrinth of corridors and into a roomwhere there was a junior official aswell as several Russian women. Iasked the young lady to explain thecircumstances to this Russian official, to say that it was not our faultthat we were late and to ask him ifwe could still get on the flight forwhich we were originally booked.Repeatedly, I heard the word Nyet(No).We left the office,and as we weregoing back to where my wife waswaiting with our luggage, I againasked the young lady to let mespeak to the manager. This time, shetook me into the manager's office.He looked as though he might reallyhave the authority to speak to thepilot. By now, the door of the planehad been shut, and it was gettingready to taxi out to the end of therunway.I asked the Russian lady inter

informed him that it was too late forus to get on that flight. The manager's authoritative reply? "Da, da,da, da . . . !" According to my owninterpretat ion, he said somethinglike: "Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah . . . Iknow, but you just hold that-plane.l am sending these people right out!"And that is preciselywhat he did.The interpreter and I practicallyran through a maze of corridors back to where my wife was impatiently waiting with our bags. Wehurriedly filled out a form or twoand were told to forget about weighing our bags. (We had had to payabout $65 for excess baggage atBombay airpor t as we boarded forMoscow and would presumablyhave had to pay a similar amounthere, had we not been so hurried.)We were then asked to get into acar (instead of walking out to theplane), and we were driven to thewaiting aircraft to save time. Apparently, we arrived in the nick of time- for the engines were already running, and the plane door had to beopened to let us on board. I foundthat the plane was only half full.We sat down aboard the Russianaircraft, breathed a sigh of reliefand took solid comfort in knowingthat the Russians are just as other

war, is it possible for the two great ,superpowers to resolve their differences and become friendly again?Turning back the pages of recenthistory, we have only to look at theevents of the year 1867. It was twoyears after the U. S. Civil War, andthe United States had just purchased from Czarist Russia theAlaskan territory for the unbelievable sum of $7,200,000 - less thantwo cents per acre! The deal wascalled "Seward's Folly" by opponents of this purchase. But the pointto remember is that it was.basicallya friendly Russia that sold Alaska tothe United States. Obviously, Russia would not have sold Alaska toAmerica had she looked upon theUnited States as an unfriendlypower.Furthermore, history points outthat it was, in great measure, U. S.industry which helped to industrialize Russia. Henry Ford andother American industrialists builtfactories in Russia - helping themto get their behind-the-times industries really moving. And it was billions of dollars worth of Americanaid, in the form of Lend-Lease, thatprevented the collapse of valiant Soviet resistance before the Nazi onslaught in the early 1940's. The


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W e sat down aboard the Russian air-craft, breathed a sigh of relief andtook solid comfort in knowing thatthe Russians are just as other people. They,too, can be appealed to and can be per-suaded to cut through red tape.

result of Mr. Nixon's meetings withSoviet leaders in 1972, reached certain agreements: Both parties agreedto freeze intercontinental missiles atthe 1972 levels, and they agreed tolimit defensive missiles to 200 each.They agreed to cooperateon environment and health problems, to stage ajoint space flight an d to set up commissions for trade and scientific cooperation. It was also during 1972 thatthe Soviets purchased over one billion dollars worth of grain and soybeans from the United States.America's surpluses were unexpectedly depleted, causing higher pricesfor U. S. consumers.

Br e z hne v's 1973 visit to th eUnited States gave further impetusto t he N ix on -B re zh ne v defensetrade talks of 1972.

- especially the European Community - even before Britain entered.Th e U.S.S.R. was hopeful that Britain would not be admitted into theEEC. Now, Soviet leaders see Western Europe headed toward full political an d military integration.

Th e prospect of a revitalizedWestern Europe, armed to the nuclear teeth, sends shudders down thespines of Soviet leaders! Russiansremember that it was a Frenchleader, Napoleon Bonaparte, who,in 1812, led the French army to theRussian capital.The Soviets have not forgottenthat it was AdolfHitler who ordered

the German army into Russia in theearly 1940's. Th e echo of Germanguns, halted only 20 miles fromMoscow, still rings loudly in the ears

body knows! "Demographic evidence suggests that th e SovietUnion may have lost 25,000,000 ormore persons between 1941 and1946; of these, losses of males ofmilitary age may have been as highas 15,000,000 to 20,000,000" (En-cyclopaedia Britannica, Vol. 22, 1973ed.). Th e suffering from famine ,cold an d every conceivable miseryexperienced by the people of Leningrad during the Nazi siege of 194144 is beyond human comprehension. About one million perished!Th e Russians can't easily forgetthose human sacrifices.

Russia SurroundedCan you now begin to see why theSoviets want to improve relations

with America? Plainly , they want anAmerica which is friendly towardRussia - even more than they wantAmerican trade and technology!

Th e Soviet Union is in a vulnerable position. She sees her southeastern neighbor, China, the world 'smost populous nation, casting eyesupon what is now Russian territory.They can see that the 750,000,000Chinese will someday need more .living room, and their most likelydirection of expansion is into Rus


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Brezhnev's "kiss" on Mr. Nixon'scheek is not symbolic of an unbounded Soviet love for the U. S.President or the capitalistic system.Brezhnev, like Nixon, is a realist,

. and he and his colleagues feel lessfear about an American finger onthe nuclear button than the finger ofcertain other people.The communists haven't suddenlychanged ideologically. They haven'tcome to believe that their system isunworkable. Neither have the communists given up their hopes ofleading the world to socialism. But .they do profess that their goals canbe reached by means of peacefulcoexistence. The question remains,however, as to whether or not twosystems which are as ideologicallydifferent as capitalism and communism can ever really peacefullycoexist. Considering the opposedviews in the fields of economy, politics and religion, one must ask:"Can two walk together, except theybe agreed?" (Amos 3:3.)

Soviets NeedU. S. Technology

Soviet Russia is well aware thatmodern industrial growth and military superiority are tied closely tomodern techno logy - especially

What does the United States hopeto receive in the way of benefitsfrom a closer, more friendly relationship with Russia? The Uni tedStates hopes to be able to cut downon her back-breaking defense budget. She also hopes to benefit fromtrade with Russia and perhaps withother communist countries. Further,Americans want to be liked by thepeoples of the world, and they knowthat if the U. S. government can

S oviet leadershave no love forAmerica's capital-istic system, but theydo feel safer withAmerica placated -in view of strainedrelations with China,a resurgent WesternEurope, and Japancoming up fast onher eastern flank .Russia sees herselfsurrounded.

Here is where we have to look tothe world's best seller for an answer.For years following World WarII, many news analysts saw a U. S.Russian war as inevitab le. And

many students of biblical prophecyhave taught, erroneously, t ha t theBible specifically foretells a majorwar between the United States andRussia .But the writers of The PLAIN

TRUTH have continued to say otherwise. Why? Because there is simplynothing in the many prophecies ofthe Bible that specifically says therewill be a war between the SovietUnion and the Uni ted States.The Bible mentions modern nations, using the ancient ancestral"names of the founding fathers of

those nations. The peoples of theUnited States and the British Commonwealth are often mentioned inBible prophecy - but not undertheir present-day names . (Write forour free book, The United States andBritish Commonwealth in Prophecy.)The peoples of the Soviet Union

are also mentioned in some of theend-time prophecies. Diligent students of Bible prophecy have knownfor many years tha t the Bible doesprophesy that Soviet Russia will be


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what YOU can dO TIMELY Tips and Helpful Suggestions for YOU and YOUR fAMILY Ghouls, Goblins and Heartache

Traditionally, Halloween has been a special funevening for children. But all too often , it portends possible heartache, not real enjoyment for those whoparticipate.In recent years in the United States and Canada,the trick has been increasingly on Halloween trick-ortreaters and not the other way around. The ghoulishpersons are turning out to be the adults handing out the"goodies" rather than the little tykes dressed like ghouls

who go around from door to door saying, "Trick ortreat!" Instead of treats, some children are getting suchtreacherous things as apples with needles, pins, or razorblades concealed inside of them, candy bars laced withrazor blades, fish hooks or pins ; popcorn balls buil taround mothballs or tacks; and candies tainted by various legal and illegal drugs or even laxatives.At this point , one might ask the logical question:"Is Halloween really worth it?" Next, "What relation

ship does Halloween have with Christianity and theBible anyway?" (Ask for our free article, "Why theStrange Customs of Halloween?" if you wonder. It's

twenty-five percent of today's British five-year-olds willhave false teeth by the time they are twenty yearsold! In the United States, up to ninety-eight percent ofthe population is affected by tooth decay. By age sixteen, the average American has seven decayed, missing,or filled teeth.But it's not natural for anyone to have cavities orto lose teeth! Two simple rules can help you eliminatetooth decay and cut down on dental bills. Here theyare :

1. Cut down or cut out eating sweets altogether !True, heredity and malnourishment are factors in toothdecay. But, as almost everyone knows, yet is often reluctant to admit, it is "ordinary table sugar" (refined whitesugar), the same sugar usually found in candy, soda popand other sweets, that is the leading culprit behindmuch of today's tooth decay."The worst enemies of the teeth are the all-daysuckers, the chewy candies, and the sweetened chewinggums. Sweetened, carbonated beverages contain concentrated sugars. Also, pastries and pies and cookiesshould be limited , especially in those children with a


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EUROPE: CATASTROPHE AND R E V I V A L ; ; r ; r ; r ; r ; r J 9 Y / T ~ ~

The heritage of the Roman Empirewas given to Europe. I t has l ivedfor centuries as the fab led phoenixbird, pictured above. Consumed infire by its own tenib le acts, Europehas per iodical ly risen in you thfulfreshness from th e ashes o f adisintegrated unity.

A YOU read this article , thirteenmen, representatives of thenine European CommonMarket countries, toil and wrestlewith the problems of creating a "European union" by 1980.Few people realize, however, thatwhat has been taking shape in Eu-

by Paul William Kroll

rope for a generation is not a uniqueevent for the Continent. There havebeen a handful of such outstandingperiods when Europe was uniting orunited in some fashion .First Unity and Then . . . ?

Europe's history can be summedup as: long and short periods of warand chaos punctuated by ephemeraland occasional periods of uni ty andpeace. Another way to look at Europe's history is to see the Continentin a continual struggle to achievepolitical , social, cultural and religious unity.But there are dangers in unity .

Perhaps the greatest danger is toEurope itself. For in the past, Europe has suffered most from its ownbloody periods of chaos and attempts at unity. Any Europeanstatesman who understands the history of his continent must grapplewith that past reality.

Europe: A "Revived RomanEmpi re"

Europe has a fascinating andunique history. Its modern kingdoms have their roots in an ancientempire that stretched from the Euphrates to Scotland and from theRhine and Danube to the Sahara

Part 1: THE FALL OF THE


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Desert. That old empire was the Ro- \man Empire.It was near death in WesternEurope in the late fourth and fifthcenturies; but before it entirelyperished, a new manifestation orphase of empire arose from itsashes. This new empire - a European-Roman empire - has sincebeen resurrected periodically, tocontinue down through the centuries.History is a great teacher. For itallows us to do a social and politicalautopsy on the victim; the postmortem examination can show uswhy the body died. On the positiveside, it can tell us what the victimcould have done to preserve its life.This series of articles on Europe'spast is a historical diagnosis of thatcontinent's revivals and the catastrophes which inevitably followedunity.The important events are presented as a chronicle, using on-thespot newspaper format. The firstarticle deals with the events surrounding the fall of the Roman Empire in the West.To sketch the background for the"fall" we go back almost 2000 years.Year A.D. 9: Rome's ExpansionChecked. Three legions under the

one vast, free trading area.Year 180: The Glory Is Fading.

The great emperor Marcus Aureliusis dead. With him, the great age ofthe Antonines is extinguished. Theend of an era of might and prosperity is in sight. Military anarchy andeconomic problems are beginning totake their toll on the empire. DioCassius, summing up the great ageof the Antonines, writes, "Our history now descends from a kingdomof gold to one of iron and rust."Years 312-325: Christianity theReligion of the Empire. Constantine

crosses the Milvian bridge nearRome and defeats the army of Maxentius . With this victory, Constantine becomes ruler of theWestern Roman Empire. By 325,Constantine is sole ruler of the entire Roman Empire and has calledthe Council of Nicaea, a conclaveordered to settle doctrinal and religious disputes among Christians inthe empire.What the world had come toknow as Christianity is increasingly

becoming the religion of the empire,though paganism is still allowed toflourish. Constantine is converted toChristianity and thus becomes thefirst Christian emperor. The Church

century, it will be more in the natureof a "picketing demonstration thanactual warfare," as one historianwill describe it. The Visigoths aremore interested in better treatment;they have no intention of destroyingthe empire. .The existence of the empire is

taken for granted. A barbarianmight try, as Alaric will, to force thegovernment to give him what hewants . But any personal ambi tionpresupposes that the Roman Empire will continue. The very thoughtof destroying imper ia l Romanpower is foolish. How could a barbar ian tribe with perhaps 100,000men, women and children destroy:an empire of fifty to seventy millionpeople, with incredible riches and aprofessional army?Year 394: Ancient Gods Obliterated. The ancient gods are outlawedin the empire. Many temples aredestroyed; persecution of adherentsis undertaken. Freedom of worshipis no longer allowed in the empire.The Catholic church becomes astate within the Roman state.Though few men of that time understand the implication of this development, it will become evident inthe fifth century. For in the fifthcentury, the Roman state will disin


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THE ROMAN EMPIRE:NEAR DEATH AND REVIVALappoin tme nt as comma nder-inchie f of the Roman army in Illyr icum, modern Yugoslavia. In 402Alaric invades Italy. It is Stilicho theVanda l to the rescue once agai n !As if Ala ric isn 't enough trouble,Stilicho is called upon to repel an

other invader in 406. He is Rad agaisus, a barbarian who storms Italywith 200,000 Ostrogoths, Vandals,Quadi and Alani . Stilicho defeatshim near Florence. Immediately,12,000 of the most valiant enemytribesmen who survive the battlesare enlisted in the Roman army.Stilicho is one of many ba rbariangenerals in the Roman army. Someadopt Roman names, such as Victor, Magrientius or Sylvanus. Othersretain obviously ba rbarian names:Merobaud, Dagalaif, Bauto andRicimer. Barbarians are foun d evenin the palace. At the court of Con stantius, we know that the Franks,for example, are numerous and influential.Year 406: The Hordes Invade the

Empire. It is the last night of theyear. A vast and motley horde ofAlans, Vandals, Suevians and Burgundians force their way across theRhin e and descend on Ga ul, modern France today. The Vandals willsoon march across France, through

Mops - Ron lepeska

ON THE last day of A.D. 406, afederation of Germanic-speaking t ribes crossed the frontier borde r of the Rhine. They mov,edsteadily westward, seizing the defenseless Roman province of Gaul(modern France).

Although the Roman Empire hadfought the Germanic hordes to astandstill for centuries, the situationnow appeared black.Other tribes, of course, had al

ready been granted permission to(Continued on page 35)


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the Imperial city, which had subdued and civilized so considerable apart of mankind, was delivered tothe licentious fury of the tribes ofGermany and Scythia."But to contemporaries, the sacking of Rome is an even moreprofound shock. The unimaginablehas happened; the Eternal City hassurrendered. Only a few years before 410, the poet Claudian hadconfidently written, "Nor will thereever be a limit to the empire ofRome."But the city that was "destined tolive so long as men shall exist" hasbeen invaded and pillaged. An ominous feeling of despair is comingover men . There is the dreadedthought that Rome may be invadedagain and perhaps destroyed forever.The sacking of the city is bemoaned throughout the empire. Jerome, writing from Bethlehem,laments when he hears the news,"My voice is choked, and my sobsinterrupt the words I write. The citywhich took the whole world is herself taken. Who could have believedthat Rome , which was built uponthe spoils of the earth, would fall?"The fact tha t Rome's destructionis such a profound shock shows how

will never accept or understand thisconcept. So he decides "to declare infavor of sustaining the Roman empire, and acting in the Roman nameby the strength of the Goths, andthus to win from posterity the titleof restorer, since he could not acquire that of substitute."

Ataulf leaves Italy shortly, migrates to Gaul, and begins the conquest of Spain. However, his dreamfor himself and his people will neverbecome a reality; Ataulf is assassinated in 415. Rome does, however,grant the Visigoths the richest partsof Gaul as a permanent residence.Thus, southwestern Gaul remainsan integral part of the empire, passing into the hands 'of foederatiacknowledging the supremacy ofEmperor Honorius.

There are now three federatekingdoms in Gaul - the Visigoths,the Burgundians and the Franks.Years 440-454: Leo Spotlights thePapacy. Leo I, the bishop at Rome,makes the Roman episcopate thesuccessor to the Roman state inItaly and the West. He himself becomes the leading figure in Italy.In 452, Hun armies are campedoutside Rome, poised to attack anddestroy the Eternal City. It is Leowho leaves the city for a meeting

and nights indescribable pillage byChristian against Christian occurs.Everything of value is hauled away.Utter chaos follows in Italy. Famines and plagues occur on the heelsof repeated invasions . Farms aredeserted and untilled. Rome andItaly are stripped bare of everything. Its physical wealth is gone;the people are reduced to an animalistic existence. From secure harbors at Carthage and Hippo ,Gaiseric's warships opera te withmore impunity and on an ever-increasing scale. Sicily, Calabria andCampania are raided periodically;Corsica, Sardinia and finally Sicilyare added to Gaiseric's kingdom.Gaiseric cuts off Rome's grainsupply, sapping her strength. Later,the historian Procopius will write,"Every year at the beginning ofspring, Gaiseric invaded Sicily andItaly, enslaving some of the citiesand razing others to the ground, andplundering everything." Gaisericbreaks two treaties with Rome ,made in 435 and 442, continuing hisgame of truce and truculence.The leaders at Rome cannot butshake their heads at the paradoxicalbeginning of the Vandal nightmare.The reason the Vandals are in Africa is due to the renegade Roman


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However, like the other barbariansbefore him, he cannot bring himselfto the ultimate stage : mounting theimperial throne.In 457, the emperor of the East,Leo I, makes Ricimer patricius orprime minister. Marjoran is madeemperor in the West a few monthslater. In 461 Marjoran dies andRicimer raises Severus to thethrone. The latter dies in 465, andRicimer rules alone for two years . In467, the eastern emperor sends An-themius to Rome as emperor, alongwith his daughter. She becomes thebride of Ricimer.By this time, the Visigothic king,Euric, has made himself ruler of allGaul. The empire in the West isclearly falling to pieces.Ricimer marches into Rome inJuly 472. Another puppet, Olybrius,is made emperor. He lasts only afew months. Both Ricimer andOlybrius die in that year. For six-teen years, Ricimer, in his own pe-culiar way, has championed Rome ,trying to keep the ragged pieces ofthe empire together.By March 473, Ricimer's succes-sor Gundobad proclaims Glyceriusemperor. He is in turn succeeded byJulius Nepos, an appointee of Con-stantinople.


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some time from military and political wounds. It has been kept aliveonly ceremoniously. Now, the ceremony is also ready to vanish.Year 476: The End of the Empire.The young man named Romulus isthe emperor of the Roman Empire,a mere shadow of its former self.The first Romulus was one of thetwo fabled founders of Rome; thisRomulus will be the last emperor ofthe Roman Empire in the West.Romulus, mockingly called Augustulus, "the little Augustus," is takencaptive by Odovacer in 476 and issimply dismissed.Many a Roman emperor had metwith a violent end; many had beenmere puppets. But none before hadbeen without a successor. For thefirst time, the office of emperor inthe West is left vacant. The easternemperor, Zeno, is politely informedthat there is no immediate need fora western colleague. The barbarianswant to place themselves directlyunder his wings.The emperor Zeno at Con-stantinople considers Augustulus ausurper. His choice, Nepos, has fled

to Dalmatia. Though Nepos lives inexile until 480, Rome is technicallywithout an emperor, beginning in

"Germanic" come to be used interchangeably in opposition to "Roman" and "Catholic."The creed of Arianism will spellthe downfall of each of these kingdoms. For in the West, the Catholicbishops at Rome will withstandtheir Arian overlords and seek to beprotected by Catholic rulers. TheFranks are soon to provide that protection , beginning with a certain ruler named Clovis.Years 476-489: Italy and Odovacer. Odovacer is granted the title ofpatricius, as was Ricimer. Thus,Odovacer rules as a viceroy of theeastern emperor. He will do so forthirteen years.Under Odovacer, Rome enjoys aperiod of tranquility such as she hasnot known since the death of Marcus Aurelius in A.D. 180. Odovacerregards his rule as merely a changein the administrat ion of the remnants of the western part of the empire. There is bu t one RomanEmpire, he reasons. In theory , thereis no detachment of Italy from theempire during the rule of Odovacer.Years 489-526: Italy and Theodoric. Theodoric the Amal, son ofTheodemir, king of the Goths, invades Italy and defeats Odovacer.

truly an emperor as any who borethat title from the beginning of history. Both the Goths and the Romans loved him greatly."If the Romans love him, the Reman church does not. In fact, thebishop of Rome will prove to be thesingle most important element inthe barbarian's failure to found apermanent government in Italy.Rome has been a predominantlyecclesiastical city since Constantinemoved from the Roman government offices to Constantinople inthe 330's. The head of the religiouscommunity at Rome is the city'smost influential personage. The Patriarch of Constantinople, on theother hand, is overshadowed by thetemporal emperor.Since church and state are in

separable according to Catholic doctrine, it stands to reason that theRoman See has become a great political force in Italy. Based on thisreality , both Odovacer and Theodoric try to solicit the support andbest wishes of the Roman church.But to no avail. Historian J. F. Bernard will point out, "The churchwas aware . . . that it could gain itsfull stature only in the vacuum ofauthority created by the absence of


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tell us, "In regard to the constitutional principle and the administrative system th e Ostrogothicregime is simply a continuation ofthe regime of Odovacer." There isno break; the subst itution of Theodoric is,from this point of view, simply a change in person.

In A.D. 526, Theodoric dies andhis kingdom is divided among hisgrandsons. The possibility of a unified Gothic kingdom in Italy is finished. In seven years , Justinian willbegin his invasions of the Germanickingdoms in Western Europe.Years 533-565: J ustinian "Restores" the Empire. In 533, Justiniandispatches his military genius, Belisarius, into North Africa. The task isto reconquer all the lost territory of

the Roman Empire and restore it tothe imperial domains. Belisariusmakes short work of the Vandals inNorth Africa. Next, his army ofHuns, Isaurians and other mercenaries land in Italy.By535, the war for the reconquestof Italy has begun in earnest; it willnot end for another twenty years .Not until 553 do the last importantremnants of the Gothic army surrender. Then, the next year, 554, the 'Goths call in barbarian Franks and


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'-----_ ---'-'>, -..__A- ~


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life comes to a standstill. Immenseareas of fertile land are left toweeds. Rome's popul ation drops to40,000. Even und er Theodoric ithad severa l hundred th ousandpeople - still a far cry from its fewmillion during the heyday of theempire." It is i roni c," histori an J. F .Bernard will write, " tha t Justinian,whose sole purpose was to reuniteIt al y to th e Empire , no t on lydestroyed th e co un t ry by th ereconquest and the reimposition ofimperi al taxes, but also lost it forever." When Justinian dies in 565,th e " restora t ion" is read y ' tocrumble.Year 568: The Lombards InvadeItaly. In 568, the Arian Lombardsmarch into Italy under their kingAlbio n. Th e Lombards, accompanied by Saxons and other Teu tonic tribesmen , soon conque r thenorth ern part of Italy. Ten yearslater Rome is surrounded. The citybegs the eastern emperor Tiberiusfor aid. Tiberius offers little or nohelp. He simply advises Rome toeither bribe the Lombards or paythe Franks to drive them out.The Lombard domination in Italywill last for over two hundred years(568-774). Half the peninsula will be

the Pope would have become amere provincial metropolitan underthe jurisdiction of Constantinople.But in the absence of strong civilauthority, the Pope finds politicalflexibility..Meanwhile, theological and cultural differenc es emphasize thegrowing gap between Rome and theEastern Roman Empire. In fact,once the Lombards are converted toCatholicism, the gap between Lornbard s and Catholi cs is more easilyspanned.The bishop at Rome and theCatholic church are the only oneswho can give the kind of leadershipnecessary to preserve the culturaland religious traditions spawned bythe Roman Empire. "With a structure and an organization modeledon the imperi al paradigm," one historian will write, "she [the Catholicchurch] slowly assumed in men'smind s an imperial image. Rome,though now but a provincial city,once again began to inspire menwith a strange confidence in a newimperial power."However, there is yet one hurdleto overcome. The Church may bethe image of imperial power; butshe is not quite its reality. Thoughthe See of Rome has incredible land


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Ward S.,Wayland, Michigan

Personal from

(Continued from page J)the dead. He went to the throne ofthe government of the vast universeto be GLORIFIED, and coronated assupreme RULER over the entireearth. When he returns, the worldwill know something of the meaningof "the power and the glory!"His eyeswill flash like flames of fire.His face willnot be pale white. It willbe like the sun shining in FULLSTRENGTH . He will come with all thePOWER that created the universe! Heis coming to crush every government

What OurReaders SayThe Energy CrisisThis letter is in regard to an article pub

lished by your magazine by Jerry Gentryentitled: "A New Look at the EnergyCrisis" (July-August 1973 edition).On page 4 of the magazine in the upper

of men, as if to grind them intopowder! He is coming as the King ofkings, ruling over ALL NATIONS.He is coming to change humannature! He is coming to enforce theWAY of outgo ing concern , or love, ofgiving, serving, sharing, helping, instead of grasping, taking and selfcenteredness. He is coming to abolish war, competition, str ife and violence. He is coming to inaugurate auniversal, right education. He iscoming to clean up this filthy earth.He is coming to restore the government of God as the all-powerfulworld government.Yes, I see a very bright future just ahead !It's the only GOOD NEWS in theworld today! 0

bugged me over the years is that wheneverthere is a science-religion controversy, suchas the one recently before the state board ofeducation, those representing religion generally demonstrate all the characteristics ofjuvenile scholarship with a little emotionalism thrown in. A recent debate that washeld in several locations in the West (CSU,Sacramento for one) showed the unbelievable shallowness of those purporting to uphold creation viewpoints. Furthermore,those scientific scholarswho have deep religious convictions were not on the scene. when their contributions would have been

cerning the celebration which preceded thateruption by a short time. I understand thatthe governor of the island was an.athe ist ofthe first degree, one could say of the worstdegree, and that he had a parade staged asa travesty against the Church, that a sowwas crucified and paraded through thestreetsin mockery of the Church. It was notlong after this event that Mt. Pelee erupted.It would seem that there is a real lesson inthat experience for the generation of the1970's, as Mr. Dankenbring suggests.C. R. H.,Upland, CaliforniaPanama CanalThe Panama Canal is Panama's land, andshould therefore belong to her. The United

States has no right in Panama, on the isthmus or anywhere else in Latin America. WeAmericans seem to feel that we can buyanything we want. But freedom has noprice. Panama for the Panamanians. . . .Mark 8. ,St. Louis, MissouriI was a soldier in Panama and rodethrough the canal j ust twenty minutesahead of a large landslide. . . . I also saw thefirst boat through, so I'm a witness to this

great adventure.My first memory of the Panama Canal isassociated with the working scale model atthe zone in the Panama Pacific International Exposition in 1915 on the SanFrancisco Marina . In the same year, theNational Geographic magazine had manyarticles and a ' special book on the wholestory of the canal, much of my very firstserious reading. I also remember square

rigger sailing ships, Cape Horn "lime-juicers" at Port Costa, which carried Welshcoal and Scotch whiskey out-bound, with areturn cargo of California grain to Liver


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Plain Truth 1973 (Prelim No 09) Oct_w