Pertemuan 14Pertemuan 14

NERACA PEMBAYARAN, NERACA PEMBAYARAN, HUTANG LN, INVESTASI HUTANG LN, INVESTASI

ASING & KEUANGAN ASING & KEUANGAN INTERNASIONALINTERNASIONAL

The Balance of The Balance of Payments AccountPayments Account General considerationsGeneral considerations A hypothetical illustration: deficits A hypothetical illustration: deficits

and debtsand debts

HUTANG LNHUTANG LN

Transfer outflow: cicilan & bunga Transfer outflow: cicilan & bunga (To)(To)

Transfer inflow: bantuan/pinjaman Transfer inflow: bantuan/pinjaman baru (Ti)baru (Ti)

Net tranfer (NT) = Ti – ToNet tranfer (NT) = Ti – To Th ‘81: NT NSB ke NM +US35,1M Th ‘81: NT NSB ke NM +US35,1M

(aliran ke NSB)(aliran ke NSB) Th ‘86: NT NSB Vs NM -US30,7M Th ‘86: NT NSB Vs NM -US30,7M

Third World Debt CrisisThird World Debt Crisis

dDFN

DrdrDdDBT )(

Net capital inflow, FN, is

Where d is percent increase in total debtD is total debtr is the average interest rate

Basic transfer, BT, is

(14.1)

(14.2)

PENYEBAB NEGATIF PENYEBAB NEGATIF NET TRANFERNET TRANFER Cicilan dan bunga pinjamanCicilan dan bunga pinjaman Capital flight (-)Capital flight (-) Foreign direct investmentForeign direct investment Bantuan LNBantuan LN Hibah multirateralHibah multirateral

PENANAMAN MODAL ASING PENANAMAN MODAL ASING & PERSH MULTINASIONAL & PERSH MULTINASIONAL

Two sources:Two sources:– Private direct and portfolio investmentPrivate direct and portfolio investment– Public and private development assistancePublic and private development assistance

AS paling banyak persh raksasa, AS paling banyak persh raksasa, diikuti jepang, jerman, Inggris, diikuti jepang, jerman, Inggris, Prancis, KorselPrancis, Korsel

Di NSB awalnya pada industri Di NSB awalnya pada industri ekstraktif dan primer; minyak bumi, ekstraktif dan primer; minyak bumi, logam, perkebunanlogam, perkebunan

Multinational Multinational Corporations: Size, Corporations: Size, Patterns, and TrendsPatterns, and Trends MNCs are typically very largeMNCs are typically very large Private foreign investment: pro Private foreign investment: pro

dan contra for developmentdan contra for development

Pendukung Investasi Pendukung Investasi AsingAsing

mengisi kesenjangan Invest-mengisi kesenjangan Invest-tabungan (saving gap) (model tabungan (saving gap) (model Harrod-Domar) G = s/k (s tabungan; Harrod-Domar) G = s/k (s tabungan; g pertumbuhan output/GNP, k rasio g pertumbuhan output/GNP, k rasio modal-output)modal-output)

Kesenjangan devisa (Trade gap)Kesenjangan devisa (Trade gap) Mengisi gap pajak-RAPBNMengisi gap pajak-RAPBN Gap manajemen, teknologi, Gap manajemen, teknologi,

kewiraswastaan: dg investor asingkewiraswastaan: dg investor asing

Penentang PMAPenentang PMA Alasan ekonomi: menghalangi perluasan Alasan ekonomi: menghalangi perluasan

persh DN; mempertinggi impor barang persh DN; mempertinggi impor barang setengah jadi; fasilitas PMA berlebihan setengah jadi; fasilitas PMA berlebihan mengurangi penerimaan pajak, ketrampilan mengurangi penerimaan pajak, ketrampilan asing yg ditularkan kecilasing yg ditularkan kecil

Filosofis, ideologis: ketidakmerataan makin Filosofis, ideologis: ketidakmerataan makin tinggi, mendorong konsumsi mewah, dg tinggi, mendorong konsumsi mewah, dg teknologi tinggi (tdk menyerap TK), SD DN teknologi tinggi (tdk menyerap TK), SD DN dialokasikan pada proyek yg kurang dialokasikan pada proyek yg kurang profitable, kekuatan MNA pengaruhi profitable, kekuatan MNA pengaruhi kebijakan, menekan semangat wiraswasta kebijakan, menekan semangat wiraswasta lokal; menyuap pejabat (korupsi tinggi)lokal; menyuap pejabat (korupsi tinggi)

Foreign Aid: The Foreign Aid: The Development Assistance Development Assistance DebateDebate Conceptual and measurement Conceptual and measurement

problemsproblems Amounts and allocations: public Amounts and allocations: public

aidaid Why donors give aidWhy donors give aid

BANTUAN LUAR NEGERI BANTUAN LUAR NEGERI

Tujuan bantuan non-komersialTujuan bantuan non-komersialSyarat konsesional: suku bunga dan Syarat konsesional: suku bunga dan jangka waktu pengembalian lunakjangka waktu pengembalian lunak

Hibah harus dibedakan dengan pinjamanHibah harus dibedakan dengan pinjamanBantuan dg syarat, utk membeli barang2 Bantuan dg syarat, utk membeli barang2 negara donor; atau utk proyek tertentu negara donor; atau utk proyek tertentu (irigasi, penghijauan dlsb) mengurangi (irigasi, penghijauan dlsb) mengurangi kadar bantuankadar bantuan

Nilai nominal dibedakan dgn riil (inflasi)Nilai nominal dibedakan dgn riil (inflasi)

Motivasi negara donor Motivasi negara donor memberi bantuanmemberi bantuan Politik: Amerika membantu eropa Politik: Amerika membantu eropa

(marshall plan) utk mencegah (marshall plan) utk mencegah komuniskomunis

Ekonomi: kesenjangan tabungan dan Ekonomi: kesenjangan tabungan dan kesenjangan devisa: kesenjangan devisa: – SD produktif (TK) berlebih devisa utk SD produktif (TK) berlebih devisa utk

impor barang investasiimpor barang investasi– SD produktif kurang, devisa utk impor SD produktif kurang, devisa utk impor

barang konsumsi mewah, memicu inflasi barang konsumsi mewah, memicu inflasi

Foreign Aid: The Foreign Aid: The Development Assistance Development Assistance DebateDebate

The two-gap model:savings constraint

sYFI

Where I is domestic investmentF is the amount of capital inflowss is the savings rateY is national income

Foreign Aid: The Foreign Aid: The Development Assistance Development Assistance DebateDebate

The two-gap model:foreign-exchange constraint

Where I is domestic investmentF is the amount of capital inflowsE is the level of exportsY is national incomem1 is the marginal import sharem2 is the marginal propensity to

import

FEYmImm 221 )(

Mengapa NSB Mengapa NSB menerima bantuan menerima bantuan donordonor Menerima pendapat ekonom: Menerima pendapat ekonom:

mengatasi kelangkaan ekonomi, mengatasi kelangkaan ekonomi, membantu transformasi ekonomi scr membantu transformasi ekonomi scr struktural, mendukung utk tinggal struktural, mendukung utk tinggal landas ke ekonomi mandiri.landas ke ekonomi mandiri.

Alasan politik: bantuan uang, militerAlasan politik: bantuan uang, militer Moral: NM punya kewajiban Moral: NM punya kewajiban

membantu NSB krn pernah menjajah membantu NSB krn pernah menjajah

Effek bantuan LNEffek bantuan LN

Substitusi thd investasi dan Substitusi thd investasi dan tabungan (memperburuk tabungan (memperburuk tabungan)tabungan)

Memperburuk neraca Memperburuk neraca pembayaranpembayaran

Lebih ke sektor modern, Lebih ke sektor modern, memperlebar jurang kaya-miskin, memperlebar jurang kaya-miskin, sektor modern-tradisionilsektor modern-tradisionil

Conclusions: Toward a Conclusions: Toward a New View of Foreign New View of Foreign AidAid Dissatisfaction among donors and Dissatisfaction among donors and

recipients may create the recipients may create the possibility for new aid possibility for new aid arrangementsarrangements

Future aid is likely to be linked to Future aid is likely to be linked to market reforms and institutional market reforms and institutional capacity-building capacity-building

Concepts for ReviewConcepts for Review AmortizationAmortization Balance of Balance of

paymentspayments Basic transferBasic transfer Brady planBrady plan Capital accountCapital account Cash accountCash account ConditionalityConditionality Current accountCurrent account

Debt-for-equity Debt-for-equity swapsswaps

Debt-for-nature Debt-for-nature swapsswaps

Debtors’ cartelDebtors’ cartel Debt repudiationDebt repudiation Debt serviceDebt service DeficitDeficit EuroEuro External debtExternal debt

Concepts for Review, Concepts for Review, cont’dcont’d Hard currencyHard currency International International

reserve accountreserve account International International

reservesreserves Macroeconomic Macroeconomic

instabilityinstability RestructuringRestructuring

Special drawing Special drawing rights (SDRs)rights (SDRs)

Stabilization Stabilization policiespolicies

Structural Structural adjustment loansadjustment loans

SurplusSurplus

Concepts for Review, Concepts for Review, cont’dcont’d Absorptive capacityAbsorptive capacity Aid wearinessAid weariness Concessional termsConcessional terms Economic transitionEconomic transition Emerging-country Emerging-country

stock marketsstock markets Foreign aidForeign aid Foreign direct Foreign direct

investment (FDI)investment (FDI)

Foreign-exchange gapForeign-exchange gap Global factoriesGlobal factories Multinational Multinational

corporation (MNC)corporation (MNC) Nongovernmental Nongovernmental

organizations (NGOs)organizations (NGOs) Official development Official development

assistance (ODA)assistance (ODA)

Concepts for Review, Concepts for Review, cont’dcont’d Portfolio Portfolio

investmentinvestment Productive Productive

resourcesresources Savings gapSavings gap

Technical Technical assistance assistance

Tied aidTied aid Transfer pricingTransfer pricing Two-gap modelTwo-gap model