Paris Summit 2015

7/21/2019 Paris Summit 2015

1/24


2/24

Paris 2015: getting a global agreement onclimate change

A report by Christian Aid, Green Alliance,Greenpeace, RSPB, and WWF

Lead author: Rebecca Willis

AcknowledgementsWith thanks to the following for their assistance inproducing this publication: Alastair Harper,Matthew Spencer, Frieda Metternich, Karen Crane,Michael Jacobs, Gareth Morgan, Harry Huyton, Tom Viita,Ruth Davis, Alison Doig, John Lanchbery, Camilla Born,Ben Stafford, Rose Dickinson, Barry Johnston,Penny Evans, Helen Dennis, Murray Birt, Dominic White,Luke James, Bernadette Fischler, Gwen Harrison,Elena Perez, Brigitta Huckstein, Tracy Carty, Leo Hickman,Mohamed Adow, Rachel Garthwaite, Kate Pumphrey andSol Oyuela.

Published by Green AllianceAugust 2014

ISBN 978-1-909980-18-1

Green Alliance36 Buckingham Palace RoadLondon SW1W 0RE

T 020 7233 [email protected]

blog: greenallianceblog.org.uktwitter: @GreenAllianceUK

The Green Alliance TrustRegistered charity no. 1045395Company limited by guarantee(England and Wales) no. 3037633Registered at the above address

Designed by Howdy, printed by Park Lane Press

Green Alliance, 2014

Green Alliances work is licensedunder a Creative CommonsAttribution-Noncommercial-Noderivative works3.0unportedlicence. This does not replacecopyright but gives certain rightswithout having to ask Green Allianfor permission.

Under this licence, our work maybe shared freely. This provides thefreedom to copy, distribute andtransmit this work on to others,provided Green Alliance is crediteas the author and text is unalteredThis work must not be resold or usfor commercial purposes. Theseconditions can be waived undercertain circumstances with thewritten permission of Green AllianFor more information about thislicence go to http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/


3/24

Contents Summary

What needs to be agreed?

From Rio to Paris: what has changed since 1992?

Prospects for an agreement 1

Why a global agreement is needed 1


4/24

2

Summary At the Paris summit in December 2015, 196 countries will meet to sign anew climate change agreement. But how likely is it that it will bemeaningful and make a difference to climate action on the ground?

Not only is a deal possible but, with the right political leadership, it can leadambitious outcomes that will have a real impact on tackling climate chang

Countries like the US and China are working to ensure an outcome is likein 2015; and the years since the 2009 Copenhagen negotiations have seensome significant breakthroughs.

The 2009 negotiations were fraught and chaotic, with a last minuteagreement emerging after frantic scenes on the conference floor. Yetinternational negotiations remain vital for countries to build on nationalapproaches, providing reassurance that they are not acting alone, andmaking it easier for nations to work together towards a low carbon futur

This is why the 2015 Paris summit is important. To ensure meaningful

action on climate change, the deal must contain the following elements:

ambitious action before and after 2020

a strong legal framework and clear rules

a central role for equity

a long term approach

public finance for adaptation and the low carbon transition

a framework for action on deforestation and land use

clear links to the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals

A strong deal will make a significant difference to the ability of individuacountries to tackle climate change. It will provide a clear signal to businesto guide investment toward low carbon outcomes. It will reduce thecompetitiveness impacts of national policies, and create a simpler, morepredictable framework for companies operating in different countries.

Vitally, a strong climate deal will help to meet international developmentaims, which are at increasing risk from rising global temperatures.Eliminating poverty, improving health and building security are all

outcomes linked to tackling climate change.

And it will also bring huge benefits to the natural environment by helpinto avoid biodiversity loss and the degradation of ecosystems upon whichwe all depend.

2


5/24

So the question now is whetherwe will have the courage toact before its too late. And how

we answer will have a profoundimpact on the world that weleave behind not just to you,but to your children and to yougrandchildren.

US President Barack Obama,Georgetown Address, June 2013


6/24

4

What needs to beagreed?

In December 2015, countries will meet in Paris to sign a global agreemenon climate change. But what should be in it? The 2015 agreement will bedifferent from those that came before. In the early years of climatenegotiations, the focus was on setting top-down targets, which drovenational action. Today, the emphasis has shifted. Individual countries arebeing asked to come forward with their own ambitions and plans forcarbon reduction. Agreement at the global level is needed to to ensure tha

countries pledged contributions add up to sufficient global action,providing financial support for adaptation and the low carbon transition,while ensuring transparency to enhance co-operation.

A good agreement will provide an enabling framework, allowingindividual countries to do more than they could alone. Agreement isneeded and possible on the following elements of a global deal:

Ambitious action before and after 2020Countries are aiming to reach agreement in Paris on a deal that will comeinto force from 2020. This means ensuring each nation pledges its ownnationally determined contribution for post-2020 action, no later than

March 2015.

But, at the Durban talks in 2011, countries also agreed to accelerate actionbefore 2020.2 Limiting climate change in the long term depends oncumulative emissions so, if less is done now, greater effort will be neededin the future. Failure to act now will make it harder to limit temperaturerises to less than 2oC, much less 1.5oC, above pre-industrial levels.3Emissions reduction pledges for the period up to 2020 have been made bmore than 90 countries but, added together, these are, in the words of thUN, far from sufficient to close the emissions gap.4

The agreement should include ambitious national plans for action from

2020 onwards, and a package of pre-2020 action, with more ambitiousnational mitigation pledges, better delivery of existing financialcommitments and more action in key sectors, such as energy efficiency,renewable energy deployment and forest protection.

A strong legal framework and clear rulesTo ensure action on the ground, governments and businesses must beconfident that countries will deliver on the promises they make in theagreement, with processes to account for action and ensure transparency.

The international agreement must have a clear legal basis that works for

different national constitutions. Negotiations are already working towardfinding the right legal design to ensure both certainty and the broadestparticipation.

The legal form of the agreement should inspire confidence thatcommitments will be delivered in a timely and credible manner bynational governments. This should be supported by a clear, sharedaccounting system and robust, transparent monitoring and reportingrequirements.


7/24

A central role for equityIf the climate challenge is to be met effectively, and the resulting globalagreement is to be supported by the 196 potential country signatories, itmust be seen as fair for all. This means the agreement must recognise boththe different contributions of countries to climate change and thechanging nature of the global economy. It must acknowledge wherenations have more responsibility and where they have more capacity to

tackle climate change.

The agreement must allow for comparisons of national contributions,using appropriate indicators of national responsibilities and capabilities, tencourage ambition and ensure that climate action links with strategies fopoverty alleviation and sustainable development.

A long term approachThe agreement reached in Paris should not be seen as static. Instead, it shouestablish a framework to build from, with rolling commitments to reducemissions and support adaptation. This should be on a five year cycle, with ratchet mechanism over time built into the system and a clear, long term go

There are two reasons for this. First, carbon targets will need to be revisedin the light of emerging science. Second, as confidence in the agreementgrows, and countries implement low carbon strategies, there will be morevidence of the social and economic benefits of action and greaterconfidence amongst investors; this will lead to a virtuous circle of action,and the possibility of greater ambition in future international negotiation

The agreement should include a forward looking regime of five yearcommitment periods with a one-way ratchet mechanism to enableenhanced ambition; it should move towards a goal to phase out pollutionfrom fossil fuels by 2050 and phase in clean energy technologies.

Public finance for adaptation and the low carbon transitionA global climate agreement is much more likely, and will be much moreeffective, if it provides finance to support action on adaptation andmitigation. Countries have already agreed to scale climate finance up to$100 billion a year by 2020. They have also established the deliverymechanism for a significant portion of that funding, in the form of a GreClimate Fund. Fully capitalised and with strong leadership, the fund coulbecome a transformational institution, with the ability to influence otherinternational financial institutions and the wider investment environmen

Moreover, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Changes financediscussions are not taking place in isolation, but are part of broader effortto reform international financial frameworks to deliver sustainabledevelopment. These include negotiations to deliver enhanced public financfor development, which will be discussed intensively during 2015, andefforts to help redirect private capital from high to low carbon investmen

The agreement should include commitments to scaled up public finance,to support adaptation and mitigation action, aligned with other publicfinance for development; and wider efforts should be made to secureprivate sector investment in the low carbon economy.

The American economy isalready beginning to feel theeffects of climate change.These impacts will likely growmaterially over the next fiveto 25 years and affect the

future performance of todaysbusiness and investmentdecisions.Risky business: the economic risks ofclimate change in the US5


8/24

6

A framework for action on deforestation and land useForest protection and support for sustainable land management will be acrucial part of a new agreement. The REDD+ programme, agreed inWarsaw in 2013, sets out guidelines for reducing emissions fromdeforestation in developing countries. These cover such issues asbiodiversity, social impacts and governance, and finance for action to meethese guidelines. This approach can provide the foundation for further

action on stronger ecosystem protection, poverty alleviation in ruralcommunities, support for sustainable agriculture and better climateresilience in vulnerable communities.

Any new agreement covering forest protection, land use and agricultureshould be properly financed, have clear rules for emissions accountingand involve local communities in decision making. It should ensure bettebiodiversity, ecosystem protection and restoration, and include support fosustainable agriculture and increased climate resilience.

Clear links to the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals

Goals for international development are also being discussed in 2014 and2015, in a separate UN process. The aim is to agree a new set of SustainabDevelopment Goals (SDGs) in 2015, to replace the MillenniumDevelopment Goals. This timing provides an unprecedented opportunity set a clear path for international development for the next generation.Action on climate change is essential to meeting development aims,including poverty eradication, health, education, food and energy securit

The agreements on climate change and SDGs should be seen ascomplementary, with opportunities for mutual benefit in areas such as locarbon development, climate adaptation and resilience, and new flows offinance.6


9/24

I challenge you to bring to theSummit bold pledges. Innovate,scale up, co-operate and deliver

concrete action that will closethe emissions gap and put us ontrack for an ambitious legalagreement.UN Secretary-General

Ban Ki-moon7


10/24

8

From Rio to Paris:what has changedsince 1992?

Its over twenty years since the first treaty, signed at the 1992 Rio EarthSummit, when countries agreed to limit their emissions of greenhousegases. The intervening years have seen far reaching changes in theunderstanding of, and response to, climate change.

Greater scientific certaintyThere has been a steady increase in scientific understanding. The recent

reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show thathuman induced changes to the climate are already taking place, withsignificant effects on earth systems.8

Broader national actionIncreasing knowledge of climate change impacts has prompted extensiveresponses from governments, business and civil society. Nine out of tenEuropeans, for example, now think that climate change is a seriousproblem.9Many countries have developed comprehensive legislation onclimate. The UK was the first country, with its historic 2008 ClimateChange Act, to set statutory targets for emissions reduction. Mexico now

has a General Law on Climate Change; Nigeria has a National ClimateChange Policy and Response Strategy; and China will shortly consult on anational climate change law. Altogether, 66 countries, which representaround 88 per cent of global emissions, now have climate legislation inplace.10

September2014

UN Secretary GeneralBan Ki-moon hosts asummit for heads ofstate and government,

as well as leaders frombusiness, finance andcivil society, to catalyseaction on climatechange

December2014

UN climate negotiations:ministers meet in Limato discuss the post-2020 agreement and

pre-2020 action

Early2015

Countries submitproposed plans ontargets and contributioto the UN by March

2015, to be reviewed advance of the Parissummit


11/24

Economic investmentAlongside rising concerns, businesses are seeing opportunities too:markets in low carbon goods and services now amount to 3.4 trillion anhave outperformed the mainstream economy since the onset of thefinancial crisis.11 Meanwhile, the cost of renewable energy has fallenmarkedly as markets have expanded.12

There is an appetite for action on climate change. But global warming hanot been reduced to safe levels.13The world is currently on track forwarming of at least 3 to 4oC by 2100,14which would have far reachingconsequences for food security, fresh water availability, and the frequencyand intensity of storms.15At this level of climate change, the efficacy ofadaptation strategies would be severely limited.

This is why the Paris summit is importantA strong international agreement will:

allow countries to push ahead with strategies and policies for carbon

emissions reduction, knowing that others are doing likewise; provide a predictable framework for a global low carbon economy;

allow developing countries to pursue low carbon development strategiand adapt to the effects of climate change;

improve international efforts to protect the natural environment.

December2015

Paris climate summit

2015-2020

International actioncontinues, includingcontinuation of theKyoto agreement,

ratification of the Parisagreement anddevelopment ofinstitutions

2021

Formal date forimplementation of thParis agreement

September2015

UN agreementonSustainableDevelopment Goals


12/24

10

We are the first generation tounderstand the consequences ofa high carbon economy on the

planet, on future prosperityand, in particular, on the mostvulnerable around the world.Let us be the generation thatstands up and takes the

responsibility conveyed by thatknowledge.Christiana Figueres, executivesecretary, UN FrameworkConvention on Climate Change,May 201416


13/24

Prospects foran agreement

While international climate negotiations are always complex and fraughtthere are strong reasons for optimism about the outcome of the 2015summit.

The US and China have shifted their positionsThe past five years have seen significant shifts in position from the mostinfluential countries, notably China and the US. Despite a divided

Congress, President Obama has committed to reducing emissions, makinclimate change a defining issue of his second term. China has an ambitiostrategy to grow its renewables sector, with tough new laws on airpollution and strong action on limiting coal consumption. Last year, thetwo countries signed an agreement to work together on carbon reductionin crucial sectors including transport and energy efficiency.

A clear timetableThe agreement reached in Durban in 2011, together with discussions inWarsaw in 2013, set a clear timetable. This should mean that negotiationsare more ordered and less last minute than the Copenhagen talks. Althoug

there are a large number of issues to be resolved, the institutionalframework is much more developed than it was in 2009, including afunctioning reporting system and the Green Climate Fund.

The case for action is understoodThe benefits of action, and the consequences of inaction, are becomingever clearer. Businesses are mobilising to call for a strong agreement, withnew coalition, representing more than 500 global companies, forming inJune 2014.18Mounting evidence on the impacts of climate change, whicis increasing the risk of extreme events, from the recent winter flooding ithe UK to Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, is underlining the case for

action.

This does not make a strong global agreement automatic or easy. But itdoes raise the prospect of serious multilateral co-operation to achieve acommon goal.

Both sides recognize that,given the latest scientificunderstanding of acceleratingclimate change and the urgentneed to intensify globalefforts to reduce greenhouse

gas emissions, forceful,nationally appropriate actionby the United States andChina including large scaleco-operative action is morecritical than ever.

Joint US-China Statement onClimate Change, April 201317


14/24

12

Why a globalagreement isneeded

There is clear evidence that global co-operation will help to bolsterindividual countries efforts on carbon reduction, and increase overallambition to tackle climate change. Above all, a global agreement providesmore clarity and certainty, which will improve prospects for the globaleconomy, for international development and for the natural environment

The IPCC reports: growing evidence, greater consensus

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its FifthAssessment in 2014, summarising the work of thousands of scientistsacross the world. The message was, in the panels own words,unequivocal. Concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhousegases are now higher than they have been for nearly a million years, longbefore human society began. The burning of fossil fuels is the main reasobehind this increase. Without strong action, temperatures are very likely texceed the 2oC target that governments have committed to. This will resuin serious consequences including sea level rises, heatwaves, loss of snowand ice cover, disruptions to agriculture and food production, and greaterextremes of drought and rainfall.

October 2013

The physical science

basis

March 2014

Impacts, adaptation

and vulnerability

April 2014

Mitigation of climate

change

IPCC working groups

In its 2013 report, for the first time the IPCC put a number on the total

amount of carbon that can be emitted, while keeping within the 2oC targKeeping within this limit would require the emission of no more than 88gigatonnes of carbon. This is, in effect, a global carbon budget. Yet, by2011, 530 gigatonnes, or nearly two thirds of the total budget, had alreadbeen spent. Emissions must peak soon, and then decline steeply, to staywithin the 2oC limit.

Economic prosperityThere is consensus among business leaders that a strong global agreemenwill improve economic prosperity in the UK, the EU and elsewhere. Earlyaction will help to avoid the economic cost of climate impacts, which

could amount to between five and 20 per cent of GDP, depending on thelevel of warming.19There are additional economic benefits in low carboninvestment, but signals need to be clear and consistent.

Spending on low carbon goods and services is strong and growing.20However, in many parts of the world it remains a small proportion ofoverall investment. As the World Economic Forum states, progress ingreen investment continues to be outpaced by investment in fossil fuelintensive, inefficient infrastructure.21 While low carbon investment isencouraged, so too is fossil fuel investment, resulting in conflicting


15/24

Taking action now will notonly solve the problem ofprotecting the planet, but it

will be a tremendous boostfor economies.Dr Jim Yong Kim, president,World Bank, 201422


16/24

14

signals to business. By making the wrong types of infrastructureinvestments now, we are condemning ourselves to more costlyadjustments later.

International Energy Agency research warns that delayed action wouldresult in substantial additional costs, as high carbon investments made nowould quickly lose their utility and value.23 In the UK, the Committee on

Climate Change has identified that the UK could save 100 billion fromearly action.24

Investment in clean energy and transport systems also brings othereconomic benefits. It reduces vulnerability to volatile fossil fuel prices animproves local air quality which improves quality of life, saves lives andreduces healthcare spending.25

The best way to remove conflicting messages and set clear goals forinvestment would be to secure an agreement at the global level.

A global agreement would allow national governments to introducestronger policies to cut emissions, without risking impacts on internationcompetitiveness. A clear international framework for carbon reductionwould reward low carbon growth, and deter high carbon investment,wherever companies are located.

Without a climate agreement, the outlook for business and the economicdevelopment of the poorest looks more challenging. Supply chains,particularly of agricultural products like wheat, rice and maize, will beaffected, with consequent effects on price.27Disruption from extremeweather events will result in significant losses. The World Economic

Forums report on global risks estimates the total economic lossesfrom Hurricane Katrina at $125 billion, and from Hurricane Sandy at $7billion for the states of New York and New Jersey alone.28

International development and climate changeThe UK plays a leading role in efforts to support international developmeand poverty eradication, linked to the Millennium Development Goals, anthe new Sustainable Development Goals to be agreed through the UN in 201

The UK supports developing countries in their efforts to reduce poverty,improve health outcomes, and promote food security and access to energ

Action on climate change is essential to meeting all these outcomes. TheOverseas Development Institute (ODI) carried out a thorough review ofthe impacts of climate change on different development goals and foundthat climate change had an impact on all of the goals, directly or indirectlyDirect impacts include food security, availability of water, and healthoutcomes. These, in turn, affect other development goals, such as genderequality, education and human rights (see the ODIs billiard ball modeloverleaf).

If the working group 2 reporton impacts describes apotential train wreck andworking group 1 identifiesthe driver, the working group3 report on mitigation

explains how to avoid thecrash. But it also suggests thatthe brakes are not working.Dr Celine Herweijer, partner,PwC26


17/24

The lack of action on climatechange not only risks puttingprosperity out of reach of

millions of people in thedeveloping world, it threatensto roll back decades ofsustainable development.World Bank, 201229


18/24

16

I was very struck by the fact thatthe impacts of climate changeare undermining a whole range

of human rights: rights to food,safe water and health andeducation. But it is alsodisplacing people, which is verylikely to cause not just human

distress but potentially conflict.So for me its a very, very seriousissue of human rights.Mary Robinson, UN specialenvoy for climate change, 201330


19/24

The billiard ball model: the impact of climate change ondevelopment goals31

Climatechange

Foodsecurity

Jobs and

prosperity

Incomepoverty

Education

Genderequality

Conflictandsecurity

Energyand water

Health

The IPCC is clear that climate change will exacerbate poverty in most

developing countries. This is due to a complex range of factors, butparticularly food price increases.32It notes that, in the years since itsprevious report in 2007, there have been rapid food price increases,following climate extremes in key producing systems.

A similar picture emerges on health. A study, by The Lancetand UniversityCollege London, stated that climate change is the biggest global healththreat of the 21st century.33Climate change influences disease patterns,food, water, sanitation, extreme events, shelter and human settlements,which in turn affect health outcomes. Infant mortality is closely linked tounder nutrition and food insecurity, both affected by climate change.34

Reducing carbon emissions will help to mitigate these effects; meanwhilthere are economic, health and social opportunities in low carbondevelopment pathways. Decentralised low carbon energy, for example,such as solar and wind, can provide electricity for the 70 per cent ofsub-Saharan Africans who currently have no access. Growth in off gridsolar has given 2.5 million households in Kenya access to energy.35

2015 provides a crucial opportunity to align development goals withaction on climate change, given the discussions around the Sustainable


20/24

18

Development Goals. The Paris agreement needs to acknowledge theimportance of climate change mitigation to development and the necessiof finance, both to adapt to climate change and to invest in low carboneconomic pathways.

Global securityClimate change is also likely to affect global security, with defence expert

warning of increased conflict, humanitarian crises and refugeemovements.36The Pentagon refers to climate change impacts as a threatmultiplier which aggravates poverty, political instability and socialtensions.37

Ecosystems and biodiversityA strong climate agreement is essential to protecting ecosystems andbiodiversity, both in the UK and elsewhere. Biodiversity is already indecline globally, and climate change will amplify this, significantlyincreasing the risk of extinctions. The speed of change is of particularconcern, as it is unprecedented in geological history, and outpaces the

ability of many species to adapt.38Academic analysis suggests that for eachadditional degree of warming a further ten per cent level of extinction islikely.39

With climate change of up to 2oC average warming, conservation strategiwill be more challenging and expensive, but if temperatures rise furthermore major interventions will be required, such as deliberate relocation species or major ecosystem engineering projects, and in some cases theywill be impossible.40Prevention, through emissions reduction, is cheaperand more effective than a cure.

Ecosystem protection and restoration is of central importance to theeconomy. The landmark TEEB study (The Economics of Ecosystems andBiodiversity) estimates the future annual costs of biodiversity loss atbetween 1.4 and 3.1 trillion.42Consultants PwC say business is alreadybeing affected by declining biodiversity, through increased resource costsor reduced productivity in agriculture.43

Protecting and restoring ecosystems such as forests and peatlands alsohelps to reduce emissions. About one quarter of all human-inducedemissions comes from agriculture, forestry and other land use, mainlytropical deforestation and peatland degradation. This is recognised in

global climate talks. The REDD+ initiative has the dual aim of reducinggreenhouse gases and protecting forests in developing countries.Negotiations are underway to provide a financing mechanism, rewardingdeveloping countries for protecting forests.

Climate change will amplifyexisting social, political andresource stresses, shifting thetipping point at whichconflict ignites, rather thandirectly causing it. Climate

change is likely to increase thefrequency, scale and durationof humanitarian crises. It isalso likely to change patternsof migration, making bordersecurity an ongoing concern,especially in the developedworld.UK Ministry of Defence, Globalstrategic trends out to 204041


21/24

Tropical forests play an absolutelcritical role in ensuring thestability of the global climate;

they are vital in providing globafood, water and energy securityand let us not forget thatreducing deforestation is alsovery likely the single most

effective way of avoiding themass extinction of animals andplants.HRH the Prince of Wales,May 201344


22/24

20

1 Remarks by the President on ClimateChange, 25 June 2013, GeorgetownUniversity, Washington, DC

2 The Durban Platform for EnhancedAction, or ADP, agreed twoworkstreams: one on developing anagreement in 2015 to take effect in2020; the other to increase ambitionbetween now and 2020. See: unfccc.int/bodies/body/6645.php

3 The UN Framework Conventionon Climate Change will consider

strengthening the goal to 1.5C by 2015,on the basis of best scientific knowledgeavailable, see: unfccc.int/key_steps/cancun_agreements/items/6132.php

4 UNFCCC, October 2013, UNFCCC/TP/2014/8, Updated compilation ofinformation on mitigation benefitsof actions, initiatives and options toenhance mitigation ambition

5 The Risky Business Project is co-chaired by Michael Bloomberg, HankPaulson and Tom Steyer to look at theeconomic risks of climate change; June2014, Risky business: the economic

risks of climate change in the US6 CAFOD, April 2014, Discussion paper:

Doubling climate ambition: how thepost-2015 and UNFCCC processescomplement each other

7 Secretary-Generals address tothe General Assembly, New York,September 2013

8 Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange, September 2013, Climatechange 2013: the physical science basis

9 European Commission, 2014, SpecialEurobarometer 409: Climate change

report10 GLOBE International, January 2014,

GLOBE climate legislation study, fourthedition: review of climate changelegislation in 66 countries

11 Green Alliance, 2013, The globalgreen race: a business review of UKcompetitiveness in low carbon markets

12 International Renewable EnergyAgency, November 2012, Renewablepower generation costs: summary forpolicymakers

13 The goal of limiting warming toless than two degrees Celsius wasagreed at the Copenhagen UN climateconference and given formal status atthe UNFCCC negotiations in Cancun,2010

14 UNEP, November 2010, The emissionsgap report: are the Copenhagen Accordpledges sufficient to limit globalwarming to 2 degrees C or 1.5 degrees C?

15 Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange, 2014, Climate Change 2014:

impacts, adaptation and vulnerability16 Speaking in London, 7 May 201417 Office of the Spokesperson

Washington, DC, media note, 13 April2013, Joint US-China Statement onClimate Change

18 The We Mean Business coalition is agroup of existing business coalitionsarguing for strong climate action

19 EU Climate Change Expert Group EGScience, July 2008, The 2C target:background on impacts, emissionpathways, mitigation options and costs

20

Green Alliance, 2013, The globalgreen race: a business review of UKcompetitiveness in low carbon markets

21 World Economic Forum, 2013, Greeninvestment report

22 World Bank news, 11 April 2014,Heads of World Bank, IMF & UNDiscuss Climate Risks & Policies withFinance Ministers

23 IEA, 2013, World energy outlook24 Committee on Climate Change,

December 2013, Fourth carbon budgetreview, part 2: The cost-effective path

to the 2050 target25OECD, 2014, The cost of air pollution26 PwC comment on IPCC Working Group

3 report, April 2014, pwc.blogs.com/press_room/2014/04/pwc-comment-on-ipcc-working-group-3-report-on-climate-change-mitigation.html

27 IPCC, 2014, Climate change 2014:impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

28 World Economic Forum, Global risks2013, eighth edition

29 World Bank & Potsdam Institute forClimate Impact Research and ClimateAnalytics, November 2012, Turn dowthe heat: why a 4degC warmer worldmust be avoided, page ix

30 Mary Robinson speaking to RTCC,September 2013, www.rtcc.org/2013/09/19/mary-robinson-climate-change-is-a-serious-issue-ohuman-rights/

31 The billiard ball model is from:Overseas Development Institute, 201

Zero poverty think again, and isreproduced with ODIs kind permissi

32 Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange, 2014, Climate change 2014:impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

33 The Lancetand University CollegeLondon Institute for Global HealthCommission, May 2009, Managing thhealth effects of climate change

34 Ibid35 Green Alliance, April 2014, The low

carbon energy lift: powering fasterdevelopment in sub-Saharan Africa

36

This is emphasised in reports by RUSthe IPCC and the Ministry of Defencefor example.

37 US Department of Defense, 2014,Quardrilennial defense review

38 Professor Chris Thomas, 2012, Natuconservation at 4degC in Climatechange: biodiversity and people on thfront line,RSPB, Natural England andWWF-UK

39 Ibid40 Ibid41 Ministry of Defence, October 2013,

Global strategic trends out to 2040,fourth edition, DCDC

42TEEB, 2012, The economics ofecosystems and biodiversity inbusiness and enterprise

43 PwC for the World Economic Forum,January 2010, Biodiversity andbusiness risk

44 Prince Charles, 8 May 2013 speech ta meeting on tropical forest science,Jamess Palace

Endnotes


23/24


24/24

Printed by the environmental WaterlessOffset process using vegetable-oil based

Green Alliance Buckingham Palace RoadLondon SWW RET [email protected]

blog: greenallianceblog.org.uk

twitter: @GreenAllianceUK

The Green Alliance TrustRegistered charity no. Company limited by guarantee(England and Wales) no. Registered at the above address

Documents

Paris Summit 2015