Pandemic Flu Pandemic Flu

Preparation for individuals and families

CDC(Centers for Disease Control)

CDC(Centers for Disease Control)

• www.cdc.gov• click on the pandemic flu links

• Individuals and families planning• Planning checklist for individuals and families• Family guide, checklist and Information sheets

Pandemic Planning Assumptions

Pandemic Planning Assumptions

• Everyone will be susceptible to the virus • 30% of the overall population will get the

virus• Highest among school aged children (40%)• Decrease with age• Working adults will be significantly affected

(20%) will be ill)

• Some people will carry the virus but will not have symptoms of illness

Assumptions (continued)Assumptions (continued)

• Fatalities will be more likely among certain groups• Infants• Elderly• Pregnant women• People with chronic medical problems

• Illness will be significant, however, even among young healthy persons• Working adults

Assumptions (continued)Assumptions (continued)

• Absenteeism• May reach 40% due to

• Illness

• Need to care for ill family members

• Fear of infection

• Public health measures may necessarily increase the rate of absenteeism

• Closing schools

• Quarantine of household contacts

Assumptions (continued)Assumptions (continued)

• Incubation Period• Time between being exposed to the virus and

having symptoms will be about 2 days

• Persons with virus can spread it to others even before they have symptoms

• Children will shed the greatest amount of virus and pose the greatest risk of transmission

Assumptions (continued)Assumptions (continued)

• In any particular community the pandemic outbreak will last 6-8 weeks• Depending on the fatality rate, the effects of the

pandemic will last longer

• Waves of outbreaks across country may last 2-3 months

• Largest waves usually occur in Fall and Winter• Pandemic may act differently - may occur in a different

season

Illness, health care usage and death(Estimates based on past pandemics)

Illness, health care usage and death(Estimates based on past pandemics)

• Ilness • Around 90 million persons - 1/3 of population

• Outpatient medical care• 45 million - 1/2 of those that are sick

• Hospitalization• 1 million to 10 million persons

• ICU 128,000 to 1.5 million

• Mechanical ventilators - 65,000 to 750,000

• Deaths• 200,000 to 2 million

Why is a pandemic different?Why is a pandemic different?

• Result of a new type of flu virus• No natural immunity in population

• Vaccines would not prevent infection

• Longer lasting

• Even healthy adults at risk for serious complications

• Widespread• Would affect every level of society because such a high

proportion of people would be ill at same time

• Would affect all communities• Limited ability of one community to help another

HistoryHistory

• 3 Pandemics in past century• 1918

• Most severe Almost 675,000 deaths in US 50 Million worldwide

• 1957• Moderately severe

70,000 US deaths and 1-2 million worldwide

• 1968• Least severe

34,000 US deaths and 700,000 worldwide Normally about 20-36,000 die from flu/year

Challenges/DisruptionsChallenges/Disruptions

• Essential services

• Food and water supplies

• Schools and daycares

• Medical care for chronic illnesses

Challenges/Disruptions Essential Services

Challenges/Disruptions Essential Services

• Hospitals/Healthcare facilities

• Banks/ATMs

• Restaurants

• Gov’t offices

• Phone companies

• Post offices/Delivery services

• Stores

Challenges/Disruptions Public gatherings

Challenges/Disruptions Public gatherings

• Meetings• Prepare/distribute contact lists

• Email• Conference calls• Telephone chains

• Worship services• Transportation limitations

• Public transportation limited• Gas shortages

PlanningPlanning

• Enough medications

• Family emergency plans

• Cash

• Fuel and fuel containers

• Essential supplies - decreased travel ability

• Rotating care schedule for family • Family requiring medical care• Children

Food and WaterProblems

Food and WaterProblems

• Food distribution• Farming/manufacturing• Wholesale• Transportation • Retail

• Decreased ability to go to stores

Food and Water Planning

Food and Water Planning

• Store 2 weeks of nonperishable food• Foods that do not require refrigeration or preparation

using water (save for drinking)• Nuts• Breads (freeze)• Dried fruit• Frozen meat and vegatables• Canned foods• Peanut butter

• Infant formulas• Special diets for older persons• Water - 2 weeks

• 1 Gallon per person per day

Workplace ProblemsWorkplace Problems

• May not be possible to work• Transportation• Decreased public gatherings

• Discuss with employer• Staggered shifts• Work from home• Telecommuting• Conference call procedures

• Save for loss of income

Schools and DaycareSchools and Daycare

• Schools, colleges, daycare, preschool may be closed to limit spread of illness

• Plan for children staying home for extended periods of time• Educational materials• Entertainment• Recreation

• Plan with teachers• Lesson plans• Internet based courses

Medical careProblems

Medical careProblems

• Acute • Emergency departments and clinics may be

able to handle only the worst cases

• Chronic• Visiting nurses and medical supply companies

may have limited ability to function• Drug stores may have limited supplies• Hospitals may have limited resources• Family care will be important

Medical CarePlanning

Medical CarePlanning

• Continue medications to avoid problems

• Ensure adequate supply of: • Medications• Other medical supplies (glucose test strips)

• Speak with dialysis and chemo providers about plans to continue

Pandemic InfluenzaPrevention and Treatment

Pandemic InfluenzaPrevention and Treatment

• Stay Healthy• Cover mouth and nose with tissue when coughing or

sneezing• Wash hands

• Soap/Water• Alcohol based cleaners

• Avoid close contact with sick persons• If you are sick, stay away from others - especially

groups • School• Work• Mall

VaccinationVaccination

• Influenza viruses change over time• Only helps with prevention, not treatment

• Short prodromal period

• Vaccine cannot be develop until a pandemic strain becomes identified

• Will take 4-6 months to develop• Govt plans

Develop vaccine to known strains Increase manufacturing capacity

AntiviralsAntivirals

• Antivirals are available to treat seasonal influenza• Not a cure but shortened and less severe

symptoms• Unclear of how useful in pandemic flu

• Would not contain the spread but may shorten the period of illness

• Government is stockpiling antivirals• Prescription only

Stay informedStay informed

• Bad information develops easily in disaster situations• Refer to reliable data sources:

• www.pandemicflu.gov

• Centers for disease control hotline 800-232-4636

• Local Health Department and local government web sites

• News media

• Private physician

Questions and AnswersQuestions and Answers

• Is it safe to eat poultry?• Cooking destroys viruses and bacteria

• The US has trade restrictions with countries where bird flu has been found in domestic poultry

• Guidelines for safe preparation: • Wash hands

• Separate raw poultry and juices from other food

• Keep utensils and cutting boards clean

• Use a food thermometer - cook to at least 165 degrees.

Questions and Answers (cont’)Questions and Answers (cont’)

• What types of birds carry bird flu? • Avian influenza can infect a wide variety of

domestic and wild birds including migratory birds.

Questions and Answers (cont’d)Questions and Answers (cont’d)

• Will the flu shot protect against pandemic influenza?• The usual yearly flu vaccine will not protect

against pandemic influenza but can help avoid the seasonal flu which will still be present and causes 20,000 to 30,000 deaths a year.

• Get a pneumonia shot to help protect against pneumonia.

• Make sure other immunizations are up-to-date.

What is being done to prepare? What is being done to prepare?

• Monitoring birds for avian flu• Working with WHO to detect pandemic flu early

if it occurs• Improving manufacturing and testing of vaccines• Supporting local governments in disseminating

information through summits like this one• Encouraging and assisting agencies, businesses

and institutions in planning for the effects of a pandemic

A different focusA different focus

• An influenza pandemic will be severely taxing to society for a period of several months

• This will require a change in focus and priorities• The usual institutions that we rely on will be overwhelmed and

will require that each person concentrate on providing assistance to their family and neighbors

• Neighborhood organization• Checking on elderly chronically ill• Helping to care for children• Volunteers that may be able to help

Elderly people Single parent with small children

• Organized trips for fuel and water Drop offs