Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics

Henry Phillips (FORECAST Project)

Round Table Forum on Short Rotation Forestry

Oak Park, Carlow 11th February 2011

Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics

OutlineOutline

Potential Wood SupplyFactors which influence supply + assumptions

Estimate of Potential Wood Energy AvailabilityFactors which influence availability + assumptions

Estimated Demand for Wood EnergyFactors driving demand

Supply – Demand Balance

Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics

Potential Wood Supply – All Ireland

Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics

Potential Wood Supply (Net Realisable Volume)

Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics

Potential Wood Supply (Net Realisable Volume)

Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics

Potential Wood Supply

Factors Which Influence Supply

1. Price

2. Availability of support for road construction

3. Harvesting infrastructure

4. Owners’ intentions

5. Regulatory framework

Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics

Potential Wood Energy Availability

How to Define Wood Energy Assortment

1. Size category1. Tip – 7cm2. 7-13cm3. 14-19cm4. 20+ cm

2. Species

3. PCRW

4. Processing Residues (Co-products)

5. Harvesting lop and top

TraditionalMarkets

EnergyMarkets

Wood Volumes

Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics

Potential Wood Energy Availability (ROI)

Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics

Potential Wood Energy Availability

Factors Driving Demand

1. Global Energy Prices2. EU Renewables Energy Directive3. Government Response and Schemes

1. ReHeat programme2. Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff (REFIT)

4. Societal Values

Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics

Supply – Demand Balance – Republic Only

Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics

Supply – Demand Balance (All Ireland)

Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics

Concluding Remarks

1) There is an increasing imbalance between supply and demand for Wood Energy

2) It will be extremely challenging to leverage supplies from the private sector

3) Coillte will remain the dominant supplier and user of small sized roundwood

4) Possible to 1) Import, 2) Increase SRC and 3) Create more enabling environment

5) No obvious solution – combination of initiatives but needs to be planned

Overview of Wood Energy Supply and Demand Dynamics

Round Table Forum on Short Rotation Forestry

Thank You