Overpopulation

Global Issue Presentations 2013-2014

What is the overpopulation issue?

“Man begets, but land does not beget”-Cecil Rhodes

• Increasing population

• Decreasing resources

• Population density

• Population is higher than the carrying capacity

What is overpopulation?

• The world population is increasing along with the average life expectancy.

• Life Expectancy• 76 – 2045-2050• 82 – 2095-2100• 89 – 2100 in developed nations(World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision)United Nations

The Issue

7 billion – October 31st 2011 (United Nations)Growth rate:• Worldometers – 1.1%• CIA World Factbook (2012) – 1.095%

+80 million per year

Growth rate peak – 2.19% in 1963

Statistics

Statistics

• 1 billion – 1804• 2 billion – 1927• 3 billion – 1960• 4 billion – 1974• 5 billion – 1987• 6 billion – 1999• 7 billion – 2011

Previous milestones

Sigmoid Population Growth

Human Population Growth

Source: Worldometers.info

• +1 billion in the next 12 years• 8.1 billion – 2025• 9.6 billion – 2050Developing regions5.9 billion – 8.2 billion (2013-2050)• China and India: 1.45 billion (2028)• 50% of population growth: Africa• Stabilize at 10 billion - 2062

Predictions (United Nations)

• Carrying capacity – 10 billion (2062)

• +75 – 80 million per year

• Current population 7 billion

• 75,000,000/7,000,000,000 = 0.0107 x 100 =

1.07%

• 80,000,000/7,000,000,000 = 0.0114 x 100 =

1.14%

Mathematics

• Future Population = N=N0ekt

• Time =

• Rate =

Exponential Growth and Decay

• ln = natural logarithm: log to the base e• e = an irrational number (2.7182818…) (Euler)• t = time• k or r = growth rate (births – deaths)• N = future population• N0 = initial population

Variables Explained

Finding the time that the population will reach 10 billion (carrying capacity).

Calculations

10=7e(0.011)(t)

1.429=e(0.011)(t)

ln(1.429)=ln(e(0.011)(t))

ln(1.429)=0.011t

ln(1.429)/0.011 = t

t ≈ 32.452

Property of Logarithms:ln(ex) = x

• Future population = N=N0ekt

10 = 7e(0.011)(32.452) = 10.003

Verifying Calculations

Future population (billions) Current

population (billions)

Growth rate Time (from previous calculation)

UN – 2062-2013 = 49 yearsN=N0ekt

7e(0.011)(49) =12 billion

ln(10/7)/49=0.00727

If the population will reach 10 billion in 49 years, the average growth per year will be

0.7%

UN Estimates