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Our Possible Futures
Origins of Scenario Planning
Herman Kahn – the Father of Scenario Planning
RAND Corporation
& Peter Schwartz Peirre Wack
Royal Dutch Shell
Ian Wilson
GE
Changed the definition of SP from Kahn’s
“sequence of events leading to alternative futures’ to
‘alternative future states
SRI’s Intuitive Logics Model
• More complete understanding of dynamics of change
• Fuller consideration of range of opportunities and threats
• Expanded range of options
• More resilient, flexible approaches
• Better assessment of risks
• Reduced vulnerability to surprises
• Confidence to move forward
• Sound basis for continuous monitoring
• Does not intend to predict the most likely future
Intuitive Logics Model Modified approach called: Strategy development using a Planning Focus
Tailoring the process
• Sensitivity/risk assessment for a Go/No Go decision
• Evaluation of an existing strategy
• Growth opportunities identification
• Strategy development without using a planning focus
• Strategy development with using a planning focus
However good our future research may
be,
we shall never be able to escape from the
ultimate dilemma that all our knowledge is
about the past, and all our decisions are
about the future.
Ian Wilson, 1975
What critical uncertainties
face the regional tourism
industry?
What major strategic
decisions
do you have to make?
What do you need to know
about the future in order to
make these decisions?
As a decision-maker, it is no longer
sufficient to say you are interested
in the future. You need to be more
specific as to which aspects of the
future concern you, and what use
you intend to make of this
information.
Decision Focus
Decision Focus
• it concentrates our thinking about the future on the
trends and forces that most affect our organization and
on the decision we have to make
• it provides a link to action
Decision Focus example
Car Manufacturer’s Marketing Group
• what should be the corporate marketing strategy to serve
changing consumer needs in the major markets around the worlds
over the next 10 years?
Decision Focus example
Company selling a medical device
• what actions should be taken in next 4 years to ensure
successful launch & implementation of new product X. The time
frame is 3 years to make decisions that will play out over 8 years.
Decision Focus example
Petrochemical company
• what technology strategies and goals, aligned with company’s
business interests, will create major earnings growth?
Decision Focus
What should be the priority areas for
adaptive action in the next 7 years?
Think . . .
What’s your 1 question
about the future?
Will we have snow?
Will our cultural traditions still be strong?
What will our local population be in 20 years?
What will the national/prov/regional economy be like?
Will I have access to capital?
What will insurance be like?
Will we have affordable energy?
Will food be plentiful, accessible, affordable?
Will we have treated water? Will we have enough?
Will their be government support for local tourism?
Will coastal land use be regulated? If so how?
Will we have adequate wastewater treatment?
How often will we experience severe storms?
What will be our flood level in 25 years?
Will the province support emergency measures?
Will our local economy still depend largely on tourism?
Will our forests be able to adapt?
Will there still be whales to see?
What will our demographics look like?
How far, and how will people travel?
What will be our active fisheries?
What will most people want to do/experience when they travel?
Land / habitat protection
Management Capacity
New Solutions & Services
Financial Systems
Climate System
Travel Trends
Land / habitat protection
Management Capacity
New Solutions & Services
Financial Systems
Climate System
Travel Trends
External Drivers & Forces
What will determine how these conditions play out?
Macro drivers: broad social, economic, political, and
technological context – (frequently national or global) in
which the key issues will evolve
Micro forces: trends that shape the more specific/local
environmental, political, economic, social conditions for
which strategy must be developed
Text From Marty Janowitz, Stantec
Tourism regulations
Council employment
Nature of high winds
Immigration & migration
Available health care
Gas tax transfer
Property taxation
Debt load Insurable property
Reporting requirements to Feds
Citizen safety & protection
Pressure for citizen safety & protection
Fresh water availability
Transportation infrastructure & Service
Property rights
Demographics
Volunteerism
Training Prov. Land mgt strategies
Planning requirements
Effectiveness of regional tourism
partnerships
Management of National Park Foreign land ownership
Regional services
Citizen engagement
Land / habitat protection
Management Capacity
New Solutions & Services
Financial Systems
Climate System
Travel Trends
Infrastructure regulations
Transportation fuel costs
Electricity deregulation
Regional economic diversity
Improvements in building sciences
Land protection
Household & business debt loads
Mapping resources
Voter / citizen support for tourism initiatives
Reporting requirements to Feds
Prediction technologies
Pressure for citizen safety & protection
Development trends
EMO resources and preparedness
CDN conversion
Species shifts
Coastal erosion rates
Political will
Coastal land mgt strategies
Food regulations
Infrastructure replacement needs
Wastewater regulations
Regional services
Educational opportunities
Land / habitat protection
External Drivers & Forces
Expectations of tourists Nature of telecommunications and marketing methods
What forces/drivers are
high impact / high uncertainty?
high impact /
low uncertainty
high impact /
high uncertainty
low impact / low
uncertainty
low impact / high
uncertainty
high impact /
low uncertainty
high impact /
high uncertainty
low impact / low
uncertainty
low impact / high
uncertainty
Common
elements in all
scenarios
Used to fill in
scenario details
Story lines for
how future
could work
Used to fill in
scenario details
high impact /
low uncertainty
high impact /
high uncertainty
low impact / low
uncertainty
low impact / high
uncertainty
Common
elements in all
scenarios
Used to fill in
scenario details
Story lines for
how future
could work
Used to fill in
scenario details
Adaptive Capacity E
nviro
nm
enta
l S
tress
shallow healthy
severe
co
nve
ntio
na
l
Adaptive Capacity E
nviro
nm
enta
l S
tress
shallow healthy
severe
co
nve
ntio
na
l
Describe the
opposite, logical
extremes for each
‘axis of uncertainty’
Adaptive Capacity E
nviro
nm
enta
l S
tress
Metamorphosis Environmental
refugees
Lean & pragmatic
Albatross
shallow healthy severe
co
nve
ntio
na
l
• Brief Description
• highlight major forces at
work
• Narrative
• beginning, middle and end
• has conflict
• present tense
• uniqueness
• 2-3 pages
Good Scenarios Include:
• The two Logics encompass the
majority of the high impact / high
uncertainty forces
• Each scenario is distinctly
different from the others
• Alternative outcomes of each
axis represent a logical
consequence of the driving
forces
Scenarios will work if:
Environmental refugees
Metamorphosis
Lean & pragmatic
Albatross
Laws & regulations
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Technology ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Economics ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Catastrophes ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Social trends Many coastal communities and select riverside properties abandoned. Fisheries industry decimated and agricultural sector subsistence only, resulting in highest unemployment rate in region in over 200 years. Multi-generations living together. Buyer’s housing market. Tourism relies on predominately national draw. Stays are lengthened. . . .
Eco and educational tourism dominates industry, though weather an increasing challenge. Alternative indoor activities for tourists a development focus. People willing to invest in alternative energy. Food and energy prices increase, as does disparity between rich and poor. Migration out of major cities, leads to slight population increase in region. . .
Regional population fairly stable. Do-it-Yourself trends very popular and this translates to educational tourism opportunities. Employment in natural resource sectors declining slightly, and training in skilled trades increasing. Enrollment in Universities decreases. Region still tops the nation in charitable giving. Tourism still number one regional employer but most people hold 2 jobs . . .
Tourism focused on educational and cultural aspects. People’s level of consumption & preferences haven’t changed relative to the start of the millennium. Most people live and work from home in cities, with technical and white collar jobs increasing in the region. Birth rate is down slightly. Coastal property still sought after. Regional population is stable, though increase in seasonal residents . . .
Insights and learning arising from the process
are more important than the reliability of
the content of the scenarios that end up
being developed.
Identify Opportunities &
Threats
Identify Commonalities
in Opportunities & Threats
Based on common
opportunities & threats, what
should you do? (or not do)
Strategy Development Using a
Planning-Focus
Scenario
Tourism regulations
Council employment
Nature of high winds
Immigration & migration
Available health care
Gas tax transfer
Property taxation
Debt load Insurable property
Reporting requirements to Feds
Citizen safety & protection
Pressure for citizen safety & protection
Fresh water availability
Transportation infrastructure & Service
Property rights
Demographics
Volunteerism
Training Prov. Land mgt strategies
Planning requirements
Effectiveness of regional tourism
partnerships
Management of National Park Foreign land ownership
Regional services
Citizen engagement
Land / habitat protection
Management Capacity
New Solutions & Services
Financial Systems
Climate System
Travel Trends
Infrastructure regulations
Transportation fuel costs
Electricity deregulation
Regional economic diversity
Improvements in building sciences
Land protection
Household & business debt loads
Mapping resources
Voter / citizen support for tourism initiatives
Reporting requirements to Feds
Prediction technologies
Pressure for citizen safety & protection
Development trends
EMO resources and preparedness
CDN conversion
Species shifts
Coastal erosion rates
Political will
Coastal land mgt strategies
Food regulations
Infrastructure replacement needs
Wastewater regulations
Regional services
Educational opportunities
Land / habitat protection
External Drivers & Forces
Expectations of tourists Nature of telecommunications and marketing methods
Forces Indicators Measures Signposts
Regulatory/eco-factors
Increasingly harmonized & stricter env. regulations
Global treaties implemented Directives on fuel quality are improved and spread Increasing use of lists of ‘bad’ products Government support for environment
Global CO2 reduction treaty implemented EU fuel quality directives adopted by other regions # of chemical products on toxic lists increases by ___%
Scenarios Summarized
1. TOOLS designed to function in particular sorts of inquiries
2. Mode of action research
3. Attend to both continuity and possibility
4. The scenario process is s u s t a i n e d
Scenario Success
Once only problem solving
Ongoing surviving/thriving
Opening-up exploration
Making Sense Anticipation
Closure decisions Developing Strategy
Adaptive organisational learning
Purposeful Scenario Work
Adaptive Organizations:
• Constantly consider & prepare for the future
• Decision making amidst uncertainty is a competence
• Are monitoring forces & responding
Thanks
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