Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164Opportunities and challenges created by terrorism

Chin-Huang Lin a, Dian-Yan Liou a,*, Kang-Wei Wu b

a Institute of Technology Management, Chung Hua University, 707 Wu-Fu Road, Sec.2, Hsinchu 300, Taiwanb Institute of Public Administration, Chung Hua University, 707 Wu-Fu Road, Sec.2, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan

Received 28 April 2005; received in revised form 19 February 2006; accepted 20 February 2006

Abstract

Besides being pushed by technical development and pulled by the demand for hi-tech products, technology is

also often influenced greatly by the sudden impacts from other external environments. As shown by the aftermath

of the 9/11 attacks (2001), Bali bombings (2002, 2005), Madrid bombings (2004), and London bombings (2005),

some technologies have been fundamentally affected by terrorism, especially those concerning globalization,

infrastructure, corporations, education, and individuals. Using system dynamics (SD) methodology, our paper first

examines the causes of terrorism and why the United States was chosen as the target for the 9/11 terror attacks. The

concept of SD helps analysts realize the variation of a complicated system and perceive how an internal feedback

loop within a system impacts the whole systems behavior. After suffering the 9/11 attacks, the American-led

coalition carefully considered how to study and develop effective methods for anti-terrorism strategies. These anti-

terrorism efforts will have a major impact on technology development, and many opportunities and challenges are

likely to arise from such development. Based on the qualitative analytic approach of causal loops, this article

explores in detail the opportunities and challenges for technology development prompted by terrorism. The

contribution of our study lies in appropriately analyzing links between terrorism and technology development in

order to explain the present relevant technology situation and to initiate a discussion of future technology

development trends.

D 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Terrorism; Technology development; System dynamics0040-1625/$ -

doi:10.1016/j.t

* Correspond

E-mail adding author. Tel.: +886 37 651188x5762; fax: +886 37 651217, +886 2 23629135.see front matter D 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

echfore.2006.02.004

ress: dian@ydu.edu.tw (D.-Y. Liou).

1. Introduction

1.1. Terrorism and international affairs

Although a plethora of typologies and theories have been developed to understand terrorism, one

lucid explanation overshadows the many others. Terrorists, according to Roskin et al., committed

believers in political causes with grudges, use violence to weaken a hated authority, fostering terrorism

mostly in countries struggling to modernize [1].

Terrorists mainly exercise unpredictable destruction to attack the citizens of governments they oppose,

causing uneasiness and fear in those societies. From a different perspective, however, the activities of

these people may be on behalf of striving for justice or fighting for freedom. China has tried to treat

Xinjiangs and Taiwans independence movements as terrorism, while Taipei would like to associate the

threat of military force from Beijing with international terrorism. The purpose of both is to deprive

rationality and legitimacy from the other side to strive for global approval and support.

In order to understand effectively what causes terrorism and how technology and terrorism interact

with each other, this article employs the system dynamics (SD) approach, devised by Jay W. Forrester

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164 149[2], in particular with causal loops to depict current international affairs headed by the United States. The

SD approach begins with understanding the system of forces that created and continues to sustain a

problem [3]. A formal model is then developed as relevant data are gathered from a variety of sources

and a rudimentary measure of understanding is achieved. This model initially uses the format of a set of

logical diagrams showing cause-and-effect relationships. On the diagram (as in Fig. 1), each arrow

represents a cause-and-effect relationship. The polarity of the link (+/) indicates the direction of changethat a change in the cause induces in the effect. A positive sign indicates change in the same direction

(increase/decrease induces increase/decrease) while a negative sign indicates change in the opposite

direction (increase/decrease induces decrease/increase). Depending on the polarities of causal links

U.S. TechnologyDevelopment

U.S. R&D Capability

Talents

U.S. Econom

U.S. MilitaryStrength

U.S. as anInternational

Power

Confidence in USA

Attack within U.S.Territory

A

NationalismReligionFactor

Interfere with MiddleEast Affairs

Regional Peace in MiddleEast

Strength of MiddleEast

U.S. MilitaryFights Back

Attack outside U.S.Territory

+

+

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+

+

-

-

++

+

+

+

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+

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Fig. 1. Causal loops depicting current international affairs.

present, each feedback loop can generate one of two types of effectsa snowball effect, one in which a

change in state generates action that causes a bigger change in the state, or a balancing effect where a

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164150change in state generates action to absorb the change.

In terms of warfare, the United States is now the biggest kid on the international playground. Every

other country is at least a head smaller. The left part of Fig. 1 illustrates the factors that brought the

United States into this unique position on the bplayground.Q Americas superpower status is a naturalconsequence of its system of higher education. From the middle of the nineteenth century onward,

America essentially democratized its investment in college-level technological research and develop-

ment. This put America at the forefront of engineering and invention, including military invention. Pax

Americana is its quiet objective: total American military dominance of the planet, in near perpetuity.

According to Fig. 1, we can deduce that the main purpose of terrorism is to attack the general publics

confidence in the United States, because terrorist attacks occurred within the territory of the United

States which could demoralize American peoples feelings about their government. Nationwide

economic development could be damaged. It goes without saying that the United States will strive with

all its strength to develop technology to prevent the terrorist attacks from recurring. Due to basymmetricwarfareQ1 between the super power of the U.S. and the relatively weak power of various nations in theMiddle East, terrorism relies mainly on non-traditional rather than regular terror attacks. Al Qaeda knew

this is a strategy for coping with powerful nations and avoiding direct confrontations with these

countries advanced military forces, instead conducting terror attacks on their civilian infrastructure at

home or their military bases overseas. The 9/11 event was an example of a major terror attack on

American civilians; later, the U.S. forces in Iraq faced intense terror attacks and guerrilla warfare.

The right part of Fig. 1 illustrates that if the United States government intervened militarily in any of the

Middle East countries directly after a change in regime, it would find itself involved in an ongoing,

expensive stalemate. Never popular in the region, the U.S. would now be in the position of putting itself on

the line to prop up an unpopular regime. That would be practically an invitation to accelerated terrorism.

Viewing the situation as a whole, Fig. 1 illustrates the mutual cause-and-effect relationship between

terrorism and technology development. It is the result of these calculations that will ultimately determine

the future of international relations.

For the reasons discussed above, countries all over world, in efforts initiated by the United States,

certainly will work hard to develop technology to prevent and reduce the threat of terrorism.

Accordingly, these efforts bring about opportunities and challenges for technology development.

1.2. What does technology do for terrorism?

Technology, in a sense, is a significant part of the larger modern narrative of faith and progress through

innovation. In recent years, the use of terror alone as a technology to reach political or religious goals is

quite a new phenomenon. Terrorism could almost occur anywhere so it is difficult to encircle and suppress,

just as it is very difficult for us to trace the people who scattered anthrax-contaminated mail in all parts of

the world, or to predict the location and type of Osama bin Ladens next terrorist activity. Certainly this

cannot be disassociated from globalization. Because of globalization, referring to integration of economic

1 Asymmetric warfare means that an attacking group suffers under none of the constraints of nationhood being stateless,landless, and unconcerned about the health, well-being, or lives of its people. Then the group can choose weapons that no nation

could choose safely, such as bioterror or chemical weapons, using an advanced nations technologies and infrastructure against it.

activity across nations, the free flow of goods and finances helps terrorists obtain equipment and funds.

Thus, it is easy for terrorists to cause disturbance around the world. The modern relatively borderless

among the terrorist cells, allowing autonomy at the basic level of this organizationprobably only a single

individual. It provides linkage to weapons information, training courses, and inspiration from charismatic

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164 151leaders globally.

The attack by the Aum Shinrikyo,2 if not forgotten, was lessons about the possibility of a terrorists

technological attack in the future. Therefore, we believe that in the coming decade, terrorists will be able

to adapt existing technology and use new technologynuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC)

weapons3 as well as cyber warfare, ranging from viruses to fluid swarm networks and coordinated

massive disruption attacks. Eventually, even genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (GNR) may yield

options for terrorists. It is expected that the weapons terrorists know best will cause the worst damage

[5,6].

2. Technology development challenged by terrorism

2.1. Mass-casualty attacks

Some theorists have argued that weapons of mass destruction (WMD) do not represent a weapon of

choice for most terrorists, even in these changing times. Stern writes that bmost terrorists will continue toavoid weapons of mass destruction for a variety of reasons,Q preferring the bgun and the bombQ [7]. Theterrorists took advantage of the fact that we pursued the new and neglected the old. Brian Jenkins agrees

that most terrorist organizations are technologically conservative [8]. Examples include the nitrogen

fertilizer and fuel oil bomb used in the attack on the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City, tank cars of

chlorine being shipped to water utilities and other chemical plants, and crop dusters that might be used to

disperse chemical agents. Later, in the case of the 9/11 attacks, the terrorists method use of fully fuelled

aircraft was also surprisingly low-tech.

2 In 1995, the Aum Shinrikyo sect was more successful at dispersing sarin, a nerve agent, into a number of places on thesituation means that terrorism can disseminate a psychological state of fear in which citizens in multiple

regions wonder bwho will be the next victim?QVarious kinds of technologies have already offered an unprecedented opportunities to terrorists. The

disintegration of the Soviet Union and the possible of spread of its nuclear weapons has become the main

factor that concerns people. The new state of affairs is making anti-terrorism planners nervous. It is now

possible for a terrorist group to obtain a nuclear warhead or dirty bomb and export it to a U.S. harbor by

cargo container. For a nation that took in more than 7million pieces of container freight in 2002, the

security challenges are awesome [4].

In addition, a large number of non-nuclear weapons and information technologies have created

opportunities for terrorists in numerous ways. For example, so far, terrorists have mainly adopted boldQtechnology e.g., they have detonated car bombs, hijacked airliners, detained hostages to gain their

purpose. However the Internet has worsened the problem in that it opens a vast repository of potentially

relevant technical information to any individual anywhere on Earth. It boosts Al Qaedas communicationTokyo subway. This attack caused a number of people became ill and even deaths.3 Examples: biologicalanthrax, the plague, smallpox; chemicalsarin, VX, and tabun.

Thanks to satellite feeds, cheap color televisions and the Internet, these images could now have a

more rapid and vivid impact, but the principle was old hat. The hijack stunned the world with photogenic

violence, as at the 1972 Munich Olympics. The terrorists understood all too well this neglected feature of

technology: with enough determination, practice and time, mature and even seemingly outdated tactics

and devices can be reborn [9]. For instance, in the mid to late 1990s, there was clear evidence that

terrorist groups such as the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) had the technical capability and

an understanding of the Critical National Infrastructure of the United Kingdom to be able to carry out

bcyberQ attacks (the concept of using computers and other types of high technology as weapons), butthey did not do so. They achieved the publicity that they desired and the subsequent pressure on the

government of the day in the UK through the use of the bullet and the bomb and the revulsion of the

populace to seeing the centers of cities devastated and body parts lying in the street [10]. They would not

have achieved the same level of pressure on the government through less graphic demonstrations.

However, terrorist leaders such as Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi and Osama bin Laden have clearly stated

that they want to use weapons of mass destruction against coalition forces and Western targets [11].

Walter Laqueurs New Terrorism emphasizes the availability of very powerful weapons of mass

destruction as the major current danger currently facing the industrialized world [12]. Before the 9/11

attacks, the most severe loss of human life was no more than a few hundred people in a single terrorist

attack. The power of contemporary radiological, chemical, and biological weapons could inflict much

more carnage and economic damage. Terrorists may turn more to these weapons that will better suit their

objectives and moralities.

2.2. Biological weapons and chemical toxins

The United States renounced biological weapons in 1972 and chemical weapons in 1993, but terrorists

can hardly be expected to abide by such conventions. The U.S. Department of States annual report on

terrorism cited evidence discovered in military raids of Afghan terrorist facilities, the use of poison by

Hamas to coat shrapnel in improvised explosives, and an unnamed group arrested in Italy with maps of the

U.S. embassy and possessing a compound capable of producing hydrogen cyanide [13]. Activities of cults

such as Aum Shinrikyo and American terrorists plans to poison municipal water facilities provide further

evidence of the WMD threat. It is inevitable that in the wake of the London attacks in the summer of 2005,

authorities in major cities will step up security measures to guard against subway bombings. But it is just as

inevitable that the terrorists will shift tactics in response, with the intent of producing a giant death toll from

a soft target. Imagine if the London bombs had been filled with anthrax or sarin.

From the issue addressed above, it seems that countries should pay more attention on many

dimensions to countering biological and chemical attacks. Some governments have already made the

transition. For instance, Italy has rolled out an identity card with a fingerprint and facial biometric, Saudi

Arabia notably is looking at biometrics for national-identity cards and border control, and Britains

passport service is testing a facial-recognition and fingerprint-biometric program [14].

2.3. Suicide attacks

Committing suicide is also a flexible technology to carry out terrorism. Some scholars believe that a

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164152newly strident view of martyrdom adopted by many Shiite Muslims after the Iranian revolution of

1979 changed the face of terror. Suicide bombing is a corporate effort: in this respect, the closest

2.4. Information technologyAnother key development lies in the communication-related progress of information technology (IT)

in recent years. This technology offers support to terrorists and provides a weapon for aiming at

industrialized societies that put greater dependence on information infrastructures. Terrorists will likely

use the Internet since they need the technology for their own communication and propaganda activities.

The major use of information technology has been regarded as auxiliary for terrorists rather than as a

target of their activity. The reported use of the Internet and e-mail by Al Qaeda to coordinate the strikes

on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon provides a dramatic example of this sort of coordination

[16]. As Paul Pillar noted, bInformation technologys biggest impact on terrorists has involved theeveryday tasks of organizing and communicating, rather than their methods of attackQ [17].

With advances in communications and IT, the propagation of ideas, sometimes stated as bthoughtcontagion,Q has made remarkable advances [18]. In the 1970s, Ayatollah Khomeini, in exile in Paris,already smuggled audiotapes of his riveting sermons and directives into Iran. Today, mass media are

spreading extremist propaganda, intentionally or as an incidental outcome of news coverage. For

instance, the Arab TV network al Jazeera serves as a mighty instrument. Modern communications

technology makes it easy for terrorists to transmit their messages e.g. on the Internet and by the same

token, makes it difficult for the governments to insulate their citizens from the terrorist threats.

Furthermore, technological developments and their availability as spread by the globalized market

economy have unavoidably expanded the dangers of terrorism in the new century [19].

3. Paradigm shift on technology

More than just a disturbance in the military force, the 9/11 attacks represent a paradigm shift [20]a

fundamental transformation in our understanding of how things work, and why things happen [21].

For example, within a week after the 9/11 attacks, IT industry journals reported that Ford Motor

Company was seriously rethinking the lean inventory system that its IT organization had worked so hard

to enable [22]; after all, the likelihood of chaotic disruptions necessitates a more resilient supply chain,

with more bbuffersQ and more inventories.The established order of things has been upset by new paradigms, and we should expect them to

continue to be upset for years into the future. There is one other aspect of the paradigm shift that ishistorical analogy may be the kamikaze pilots who trained as a cadre to terrorize the American fleet in

the Pacific in 194445. Suicide appeals to these groups principally because it is a good way to kill large

numbers of people. Robert Pape, of the University of Chicago, calculates that between 1980 and 2001,

13 people died on average in every suicide attack, whereas September 11 made the death ratio much

starker [15]. For those whose aim is maximum destruction, not just maximum publicity, it is a natural

choice.

Vigilance against such attacks can make life grindingly tense. If possible, the best answer must be to

choke the supply of the terrorists prize asset the bombers through political compromise. Yet against

the ultra-extremists of Al Qaeda, intelligence, disruption, and vigilance may be the only ways.

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164 153exemplified in a particularly stark fashion by the World Trade Center attack, but also by the many of the

other disruptive changes we are facing today: The war is no longer bover there,Q it is here [23].

The phenomenon is, first, terrorists nowadays usually are assumed to have some portion of their

number in covert residence within the societies they plan to attack. Second, terrorists seem to be very

patient; they decide when they will strike. As a result, those defending against terrorism must be alert at

all times, despite the apparent absence of visible terrorist activity [24]. Encountering the attacks of

terrorists will likely require a more proactive approach to technological innovationbetting on the

future: formulating clear requirements, prioritizing needs, establishing cooperative means to foster the

development of technologies, and building the human and financial capital programs necessary to

transition and sustain them as effective anti-terrorism tools.

3.1. Globalization scenario

With the trend of globalization, the ability of nations to control the flow of information, commodities

and people is declining, while people are becoming more responsive to global events and opportunities

[25]. In addition, military weaponry is diffusing beyond the control of governments. The world created

will be one in which conflict will be more frequent and more disaggregated [26,27]. Globalization itself

is likely to meet with continued resistance based on the various codes of nationalism, particularly if it is

seen as the agenda of the global superpower.

There are no frontiers in 21st century national security. Distinguishing clear lines of responsibility

between foreign and domestic security is a thing of the past. To counter the threat of terrorism, for

example, America needs to rely on other countries together to encircle and suppress domestic terrorist

activity. A country that is already unable to control its own destiny totally under globalization will cause

people to be frightened and uneasy.

Such psychological effects have a great impact on economic development. Although the injuries and

deaths of the 9/11 attacks were fewer than those of a small war, the psychological impact on the global

economy caused by this incident appears more serious than a war. For instance, prior to the 9/11 terrorist

attacks, the commercial airline industry had already been facing difficulties due to reduced demand,

rising labor costs, and high debt service costs [28]. As this particular case of terrorism acted as a catalyst

exerting an adverse demand shock for the airline industry, United Airlines, Northwest Airlines, US

Airways, Hawaiian Airlines, and National Airlines went bankrupt.

Although terrorism is a non-economic factor, it has a far-reaching influence on the economy via

globalization. Because globalization is so convenient for the existence and spread of terrorism, people

around the world cannot but slow down the advance of globalization while taking the precautionary

counterterrorism measures. To avoid terrorist attacks, numerous countries have apparently tightened

control of imported goods and personnel. This measure causes customs to be passed slowly and

transaction costs to increase. Extra insurance premiums have raised the cost of imported goods even

more. These turn out to hinder the transnational flow of goods and personnel. Peoples will to travel

abroad is reduced, and the manufacturer will cut down on imported spare parts and produce them at

home.

However, if what we learn from terrorism is to slow down globalization and increase the control of the

country, it is the wrong lesson. The importance that terrorism prompts does not lie in the national aspect,

but in organizing and cooperating internationally. The interests brought from globalization are enormous,

so people should not withdraw from globalization upon meeting obstacles. For this reason, we should do

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164154our utmost to advance globalization and try to solve the problems that arise during the globalizing

process.

3.2. Infrastructure scenario

Most countries think a great deal about infrastructure, because it concerns peoples livelihood and is

also often the focal point of technology development. Therefore, infrastructure is more likely to become

the main target of terrorists attacks. There are cases in which attacks may be carried out by the

systematic burning of installations and properties, etc. [29]. As public officials contemplated the

implications of the WTC attack, it became increasingly clear that other aspects of the U.S.s

infrastructure a vast web of electric utilities, dams, bridges, tunnels, telecommunication switching

systems, reservoirs, roads, natural gas pipelines, refineries, post offices, and the Internet might also be

at risk. Some portions of the nations infrastructure are vulnerable to bombs, radiation, chemical attacks

and germ-warfare attacks; and many are vulnerable to cyber-attacks, since they are typically managed

and controlled by computer systems of one kind or another.

It is important to note that the telephone system, credit-card system, student-visa system, and car-

rental system were the very infrastructures used by the September 11 terrorists in order to coordinate,

organize, and facilitate their attack on the bphysicalQ infrastructure of the World Trade Center, thebfinancialQ infrastructure associated with the banking and stock-exchange activities headquartered on theInternet, and the military infrastructure headquartered on the Internet. Taking precautions against these

problems will require that infrastructures be more well developed. While political and military leaders

are understandably reluctant to discuss such issues in detail, there is a general consensus among civilian

hackers and computer experts that the government could use its technological prowess to withdraw

money from terrorist bank accounts, impersonate a terrorists voice on the telephone, disrupt voice/data

communications completely, and disrupt GPS signals used by a terrorists navigation equipment [30].

3.3. Corporate scenario

Unlike the Y2K phenomenon, todays terrorist threat to IT is undefined, the response is difficult, and

there is no known time frame [31]. The 9/11 attacks created unpredictability terrorism is too fast, too

chaotic, too damaging, too cunning and vicious sometimes so people cannot plan in advance.

The future is indeed unpredictable, but there could be several means of identifying possible futures.

For orderly preparation for upcoming events, one alternative, popularized 30years ago by the Royal

Dutch Shell Company at the beginning of the 197374 Middle East oil embargo, is scenario planning

i.e., identifying and categorizing a wide range of possible scenarios that might or might not occur

someday. In the most extreme case, this means bthinking the unthinkableQ: identifying andacknowledging the possibility of worst-case scenarios [32], with the understanding that such scenarios

might be exactly what terrorists and hostile competitors are planning. IT will perceptibly play an

imperative role in any such attempt, for it involves connecting the right information to the right people at

the right timei.e., credible information about the impending threat, delivered to decision-makers and

affected individuals, before the threat manifests itself, not the day after [33].

It is vital to create an early-cautionary system to ascertain unruly threats before they occur, but such a

system will be useless if the organization is unable to take action quickly enough. Some kinds of

menaces will involve early-warning periods and response-time periods measured in minutes, or possibly

even in seconds; one of the major stumbling blocks confronting organizations will be adjustments that

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164 155presently take months, if not years. The U.S. governments response to the airport-security predicament

which was clearly recognized previous to the 9/11 attacks but not considered a high-priority subject

is a case in point. The U.S. military learned this lesson on September 11. Although the air-traffic

controllers presumed that the four airplanes had been hijacked, the Air Force was unable to scramble its

fighters and move them to the scene until after the terrorists had hit the World Trade Center and the

Pentagon.

The 9/11 attacks have forced IT managers, corporate executives, and government leaders to recognize

the importance of their binformation assetsQ and to tackle their weaknesses. When non-technical peoplehear the term binformation assets,Q they are likely to conjure up images of desktop PCs, telecommunicationnetworks, Web servers, and other recognizable items of computer technology. But the terrible nature of the

World Trade Center attack highlighted the fact that information assets come in other forms as well, and

reside in other places besides the corporate computer room. Many were outdated authorized documents

contracts, mortgages, wills that had not been saved in a computer database, for the reason that the

documents have legal significance only if they are present in hard-copy type with ink signatures of the

pertinent individuals and entities. And more important than the scraps of paper were the people. For

instance, theWall Street trading firmCantor Fitzgerald lost nearly 700 of its traders [34]. This means that in

addition to the tragedy of these deaths, the company lost vast quantities of facts, rumors, names, phone

numbers, wisdom, knowledge, and tidbits of information stored in the heads of those 700 people.

3.4. Education scenario

A crucial element of the cultural front in the fight against terrorism is reforming the education system

in the Muslim world. Extremists primarily come from societies where there is a high level of extremist

teaching. Social change must be encouraged and promoted, with an emphasis on education. There are

serious problems caused by some types of religious schools in Muslim countries. Terrorists make use of

these schools to disseminate ideologies of btheology and the clash of civilizationsQ that are contrary tothe teachings of Islam. In such cases, what is being disseminated is not religious teaching but an

education in the politics of hatred.

Americas universities attract more foreign students than any other countrys do, giving the United

States a rich source of talent, as well as building important links abroad. Now this sparkling success is

threatened by the measures the government is taking to protect America from further terrorist attack.

Events since September 11 have actually highlighted the United States need for more research and

development to counter the threat of bio-terrorism, for instance. The country cannot afford to slow

investment in scientific research or stanch the flow of top scholars and researchers from abroad. The

White House Office on Science and Technology Policy has to strike a delicate balance between

continuing to promote the valuable, and in some fields irreplaceable, flow of foreign students with the

urgent need to protect national security [35].

Three years after the Al Qaeda attacks, academia is embracing the post-9/11 world. Some 200

colleges and universities offer homeland-security studies much as, decades ago, national-security

programs sprang up to address the issues of the Cold War. Graduate programs quickly followed. San

Diego State launched an interdisciplinary masters degree in homeland security, attracting students from

nursing, criminal justice, and political science. The University of Southern California is offering an

online masters in system safety and security, for which students examine such problems as how to

defend civilian airplanes against surface-to-air missiles. Engineering schools are adding classes on

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164156potential cyber-attacks on the electrical grid. And George Washington Universitys medical school now

requires its students to take an emergency-preparedness course [36].

4. Technological development prospects4.1. IT will likely be a battlefield in the future

Some of these conflicts will be obvious and direct, in terms of their relationship with IT; bcyber-warfareQ is the catch-all term that is being used to express diverse varieties of hacking, viruses, physicalattacks on computer centers or the Internet backbone. In some circumstances, the attack may not be on

computers themselves, but on the capability of computer systems to assist such critical functions as

telephone switching centers, stock-market trading systems, and air-traffic control.

For instance, one of the biggest difficulties in putting a more comprehensive air-travel security system

into action is the lack of an adequate information system to identify potential terrorists before they board

the airplane. Similarly, one of the concerns that the health-care community has, in the face of potential

anthrax/smallpox attacks, is that it lacks the kind of real-time tracking systems that UPS and Federal

Express use to scrutinize the transport of packages through their organizations.

Indeed, some of these technological advances will be shaped and influenced by the immediate

military/political reaction to the 9/11 attacks, as well as whatever ongoing military actions continue for

the next several years. IBMs Internet chief, Irving Wladawsky-Berger, suggests that we may see the

current conflict producing even more powerful versions of todays supercomputers, and venture

capitalist Steve Jurvetson suggests that biotechnology will make great leaps forward because of the

political/military need to counter bioterrorism [37]. Supported by venture capital, Cepheid Inc. of

Sunnyvale, Calif., is one company that made the shift to biodefense. The firm builds devices that canSome students are drawn to the subjects because they have family and friends shipped out to Iraq. But

many see job opportunities aheadnot just in government (the federal Homeland Security Department

employs 183,000) but in industry as well.

As educators, we sincerely hope that all the countries of the world will encourage each other toward a

balanced position of global solidarity from the perspective of all the victims of war and violence.

3.5. Individual scenario

Certain people will use the 9/11 attacks as the motivation to undertake leadership positions in spots

that people ignored, or treated casually, e.g., community service, computer security, improved

emergency-response systems, and innovative businesses for dealing with new forms of risk and

uncertainty. Others will seek new leaders to followe.g., political leaders like Rudolph W. Giuliani and

George W. Bush, or managers and business executives in their own organizations. Still others will

resolve that the post-9/11 world is so chaotic and unsafe that the best thing to do is hunker down and stay

out of the way.

To bstay out of the wayQ does not inevitably indicate an escape from the metropolises and a shift to afarm in the countryside. It means maintaining a lower profile in potentially dangerous situations and it

may imply keeping away from potentially dangerous situations such as crowded shopping malls or

sports events.

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164 157identify germs by analyzing each microbes DNA or genetic code and has sold hundreds of its machines

to supply the U.S. Postal Service [38].

4.2. Developed countermeasures

The threats to multinational organizations posed by terrorist activity have never been greater than they

are today. Organizations in all sectors of business and in all areas of the world are increasingly finding

themselves the targets of various types of terrorist action and, consequently, there is a fundamental need

to ensure the protection of assets, both human and material [39].

4.2.1. Biometrics

Biometrics are automated methods of recognizing humans, based on unique physiological or

behavioral characteristics [40]. Biometric technologies serve to recognize and authenticate people

based on generally immutable features (unlike material tokens such as a password), so theoretically

they are highly reliable. That is to say, as all 19 of the September 11 hijackers had American Social

Security numbers six of them fraudulently obtained this situation may not happen in the future.

Before the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks, the focus of Americas security industry was the

comparatively low-tech task of defending residences and workplaces. With the Department of Homeland

Security planning to spend around $60billion over 2005 and 2006 on everything from safer airports to a

nationwide network of bbiosurveillance sensors,Q there are opportunities galore for the private high-techsector. Now it is an increasingly high-tech business embracing everything from biometrics to chemical

sensing. Cyrano, for example, has developed miniature sensors that can act as an belectronic noseQ tosniff out chemical and biological agents. ImageWare Systems, based in San Diego, boasts bsecurecredential and biometric product linesQ for drivers licenses and passports.

With the threat of terrorism now a long-term concern, biometric-identification systems are blossoming

around the world. To stop people who pose a potential threat at the border, for instance, the U.S. is

embarking on a program called U.S.-VISIT, for U.S. Visitor and Immigrant Status Indicator Technology,

which was mandated by Congress in 2002. Biometric technologies are the linchpins of the new system,

expected to cost $10billion over the next decade. The technology is not just to keep track of foreign

visitors either. The U.S. State Department is retooling its passport production process and by the end of

2005 will issue new passports with an embedded chip containing a facial biometric and biographical

data. This will enable the government to boost security without resorting to passport fingerprinting,

which could incite fears of Big Brother.

4.2.2. Surveillance

Several new systems have been developed to examine cargo shipments into the United States.

These systems are designed primarily to detect explosives, but they also have the capacity to detect

illegal narcotics in vehicles. To ensure that those containers are not used to smuggle in nuclear

weapons, U.S. customs agents often track ships before they leave foreign ports, using computers to

keep tabs on their cargo. Some containers have electronic lids that will indicate if they have been

tampered with en route. And when suspect vessels approach U.S. ports, the Coast Guard can intercept

and examine them.

In the past, only one in 20 of the containers entering Americas ports is inspected, and few are kept

under surveillance after clearing customs. That should mean a huge new market for radio-frequency

identification (RFID) tags, sensors that could be attached to each container to track its position, and for

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164158better imaging devices to see inside the container. For example, the information technological service

company Unisys is skilled in this field and accurately tracks tens of thousands of container wheels that

sail for the U.S.A. every day. Using a purpose-built detecting device and encapsulation technology,

linked to a satellite system, if any container wheel has been juggled in the course of sailing, it cannot

escape from the control of this dragnet. Based on this system, enterprises can track the transporting of the

goods immediately, remain in charge of the stock, and acquire great advantage.

USBX, a Santa Monica investment bank, estimates that sales of bomb-screening devices and metal

detectors are set to grow by nearly a third annually [41]. However, an important next step would be to

make the detection technologies faster and smaller. At Livermore, scientists developed and recently

licensed a device called RadScout. Designed to detect trace amounts of radiation, its a battery-

powered, lunch-box-size handheld detector that customs officers could use to inspect suspicious

containers at close range. Bruce Goodwin, head of the labs nuclear-weapons program, says he hopes

to see future versions of the device no bigger than a pen and bcheap enough so that every cop canhave oneQ [42].

As for checked luggage, during 2004, InVision, a manufacturer of baggage-screening devices, began

selling machines that complement existing baggage scanners with devices that use bX-ray diffractionQtechnology. When a bag is found to contain something suspicious, the specialized scanners can zoom in

on the indicated area and analyze the suspect materials to determine their chemical composition, all with

the suitcase closed. This expands upon existing X-ray systems, which are limited by high error rates,

long processing times, and often indeterminate results.

4.2.3. Explosion-proof and autopilot technology

The commercial market of security technology for anti-terrorism is expanding with higher speed at

present. The innovation company 3M has followed suit. One recent product is explosion-proof paper

applied to windows. This product has been welcomed by hotel and office buildings. If a building is

attacked, windowpanes treated with this totally transparent paper will break up but will not likely cause

casualties due to flying shattered glass.

After the 9/11 attacks, a number of industry observers suggested that it ought to be possible to take

control of aircraft from the ground, to deter hijackers. It is still far too early to tell how passengers would

react to the idea of fully automated flights, though the technological trend is clear and the economics

seem to make sense. But passengers might be disinclined to accept it as an anti-terrorism measure

initially, and then get used to the idea. Craig Mundie, chief technical officer at Microsoft, estimates that

passengers will routinely travel in pilotless planes by 2030, a claim he has backed up with a public bet to

that effect (see www.longbets.org/bet/4). Bob Mitchell, who was responsible for the pilotless aircrafts

development in Northrop Grumman (an aviation company), believes it is unlikely to be before 2050, but

that it will happen eventually [43].

Fears of truck bombs, explosives, and concealed weapons being brought near or into places of

government and business have led to an abominable state of affairs for the appreciation of architecture.

Technology and architecture should be able to link arms and rise to the occasion. They should be able to

make dealing with the realities of terrorism achievable in more civilized and civilizing ways than are

currently being applied [44].

4.2.4. Biochemical prevention

Dangerous chemicals in transit should be tracked electronically. To ensure that only first

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164 159responders, and not terrorists, know what tank cars contain, rail cars should be equipped with

encrypted electronic identification. Sensor networks are needed to detect and characterize dangerous

materials, particularly airborne pathogens and toxins. Self-analyzing filter systems for modern office

buildings whose windows cannot be opened can not only protect the inhabitants but detect and

report the first presence of those materials (such as aerosols), which may be trapped in improved

filters.

Some companies are making progress with vaccines and treatments. Anacor Pharmaceuticals, a Palo

Alto, Calif., start-up launched in 2001 with $21.6million of Pentagon and venture-capital money, is

conducting animal tests for antibiotics to treat anthrax and other bioterrorism agents. In this just-in-time

society, DynPort, a company based in Frederick, Md., has developed a faster-acting anthrax vaccine that

completed Phase I clinical trials in 2004, in which a substance was tested on healthy volunteers to

evaluate its safety in increased doses.

Other companies are working out ways to limit the wave of terrorism that a bio-attack could set in

motion. At Los Alamos and at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, CA, scientists

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164160have developed an air-quality testing unit the size of an ATM. When installed in subway stations,

airports, arenas or convention centers, these devices sample the air and submit it to tests in a self-

contained laboratory. Within an hour, they can report the presence of anthrax, smallpox or other

pathogens.

We will never know for certain, but it is a commonly held belief that the 9/11 attacks could have been

prevented if the law enforcement agencies of the United States had shared information and cooperated

with one another more effectively. Some of this involves human decisions to allow (or demand) that law

enforcement agency A shares its data with law enforcement agency B. In the aftermath of anthrax-laced

letters popping up around the U.S. at the end of 2001, it became increasingly apparent that lack of

database integration and coordination was seriously hampering the governments efforts to respond to

biological/chemical attacks. Consequently, perhaps integration of many governmental databases is the

most useful innovation; its application to tie together all U.S. hospitals to detect sudden suspicious

disease patterns is already under way [45].

4.2.5. High-tech defense

A few of the technical innovations can be used to foil terrorists [46]. They should form a high-tech

defense: radiation detectors, Internet safeguards, handheld anthrax bsniffersQ [47]. For tracking terrorists,we can rely on human face and iris recognition systems as well as radio frequency identification tags

Table 1

Instances of technological application for counterterrorism

Border surveillance InVision uses X-ray diffraction and magnetic sensing to detect explosives and drugs

Unisys uses detection devices and encapsulation technology, linked to a satellite system, to track

the transport of goods in real-time.

Biometrics Cyrano has developed miniature sensors that can sniff out chemical and biological agents.

ImageWare Systems, based in San Diego, boasts bsecure credential and biometric product linesQ fordrivers licenses and passports.

Explosion-proof

and autopilot

3M has invented an explosion-proof paper applied to windows.

Boeing has set up a dedicated unmanned-systems unit, which will initially concentrate on military

aircraft, but with the aim of transferring the technology to civil and commercial aviation.

Biochemical prevention Anacor Pharmaceuticals is conducting animal tests for antibiotics to treat anthrax and other

bioterrorism agents.DynPort has developed a faster-acting anthrax vaccine.

subdued him. This deterrence will continue to make a difference.

Another part of the anti-terrorism strategy ought to be the education of the public. Technology, ideally, isabout the application of valuable knowledge. As governments and other actors increasingly rely on it to

meet social demands of security in an age of terror, the development and implementation process of

security technology policy requires close analysis and critical evaluation. These steps are necessary notconsisting of microchips and antenna wires embedded in bank notes. For biological/chemical threats,

airborne pathogen detectors and toxic chemical detection systems are being developed [48].

Synthesizing what has been stated above, Table 1 lists several instances for reference.

5. Conclusion

Technology is, of course, not the only answer to addressing the specter of transnational terrorism,

but the technological answers we have today are inadequate to deal with the scope and potential

severity of the threat [49]. This article has discussed transformations in technology to fight against

terrorism. The post-September 11 security environment has forced a dramatic acceleration of such

transformation efforts.

In the recent past, particularly since the events of 9/11, the world has become increasingly sensitive to

the threat of terrorism. At the same time, without doubt, technologies have increasingly been adopted and

in many cases are now quite embedded in our lives. Rather than adapting technologies to stay apace of

evolving dangers and changing tactics, we need to get ahead of the terrorists and develop bovermatchingQsecurity systems that protect the public, safeguard their liberties, and leave travel and commerce

unencumbered.

To understand how science and technology might contribute to countering terrorism, one must

evaluate the nature of the threat, the vulnerabilities of targets in society, and the availability of

technical solutions to the vulnerabilities that are most likely to be exploited by terrorists. Because

terrorists can pick targets anywhere, counterterrorism has to defend everywhere from airports to office

buildings to cargo ships to hospitals. There is no panacea, but in a world of ancient hatreds, modern

shields still have their uses. Scientists are busy developing even more advanced detection schemes

from digital bomb sniffers and 3-D holographic body scanners to biometric facial-recognition systems

that can potentially be used to check passengers against an electronic national counterterrorism

database [50].

More than 3years after the September 11 terrorist attacks, according to a survey by Ian Mitroff, on

the whole, American companies are just as vulnerable and as unprepared as they were before. Just as

disturbing, preparations spiked about 1year out and have downturned dramatically. They are back

where they startedseemingly not taking the lessons of this tragic event seriously [51]. All the metal

detectors and gate checks exist to make passengers (and the administrators accountable for preventing

terrorist attacks) feel as if the airplanes are safe. A determined attacker can still get past all the barriers.

Who, for example, checked the food cart that came on the plane, or the worker who brought it there?

Probably nobody. There is only one serious difference since the 9/11 attacks: Hijackers know that the

passengers on board are now likely to fight back. This is not a trivial change; the bshoe bomber,QRichard Reid, was apprehended because flight attendants spotted him and half a dozen passengers

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164 161only to work to understand how policy solutions are formulated, but also to ensure that their application

proceeds.

Saddle River, New Jersey, 2003.

pp. 1215.[7] J. Stern, The Ultimate Terrorist, Harvard University Press, Cambridge Massachusetts, 1999.

[8] B.M. Jenkins, Will terrorists go nuclear? Sociol. Rev. 29 (3) (1985) 507516.

[9] E. Tenner, The shock of the old, Technol. Rev. 104 (10) (2001) 50.

[10] A. Jones, Cyber terrorism: fact or fiction, Comput. Fraud Secur. 2005 (6) (2005 (June)) 47.

[11] R.B. Myers, Transforming for the war on terrorism, Mil. Technol. 28 (10) (2004 (Oct)) 8.

[12] W. Laqueur, The New Terrorism: Fanaticism and the Arms of Mass Destruction, Oxford Press, New York, 2000.

[13] US Department of State, Patterns Glob. Terror., 2003, p. 66.

[14] E. Shannon, Big Brother Inc., Time (2004 Apr. 05).

[15] Suicide terrorismmartyrdom and murder, The Economist 8357 (2004) 2022.

[16] J. Arquilla, D. Ronfeldt, M. Zanini, Networks, Netwar, and Information-Age Terrorism, Rand Publications, 1999.

[17] P.R. Pillar, Terrorism goes global: extremist groups extend their reach worldwide, Brookings Rev. 19 (4) (2001 (Fall)).

[18] A. Lynch, Thought Contagion, Basic Books, New York, 1996.

[19] M.J. Morgan, The origins of the new terrorism, parameters, Carlisle Barracks 34 (1) (2004) 2943.

[20] E. Yourdon, Byte Wars: The Impact of September 11 on Information Technology, Prentice Hall Pearson Education INC,

2002.[2] J.W. Forrester, Industrial Dynamics, Productivity Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1961.

[3] E.B. Roberts, Managerial Applications of System Dynamics, Productivity Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1978.

[4] B.M. Jenkins, Will terrorists go nuclear? A reappraisal, in Kushner, Future Terror., pp. 225249.

[5] B. Joy, Why the future doesnt need us, Wired (2000 (April)) 238262.

[6] J.P. Contzen, The role of science and technology in the reinforcement of global security and the fight against terrorism,

Talk Presented at the 6th International Conference on Technology Policy and Innovation, Kyoto, Japan, 2002 (August),Talk of a bwarQ itself encourages people to believe in a clear and not-too-distant victory, whereas theapocalyptic spirit of Al Qaeda may be around for decades. bTerrorQ which is, after all, a techniquerather than an army will stalk the world forever [52]. Since it is unlikely that threats of terrorism will

completely disappear in the foreseeable future, it behooves engineers and architects to act now to restore

everyday life at airports and other public places to the civility known before the present era. This can be

done with the judicious application of modern magnetic, electrical, opto-electronic, chemical, and

biological technologies in service to human safety and human dignity.

If human intelligence is not sufficient to choke off terrorism, the circulation among technology and

terrorism will be endless, just as in the causal loops this paper illustrated. Based on the observations stated

in this article, we have good grounds for thinking that terrorism will present opportunities and challenges

for technology development. In the future the arguments of this paper will provemore relevant once we are

enjoying the security the development of newer technologies has provided us.

Acknowledgments

We would like to express our gratitude to an anonymous referee for valuable comments that

contributed towards the improvement of the paper. We are also grateful to Professor Winston Koh for his

insightful comments. Any remaining errors and ambiguities are our responsibility.

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Chin-Huang Lin has a Ph.D. in science management from National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan. Currently, Dr. Lin is an

assistant professor at Chung Hua University, Taiwan. His research interests are in the areas of system dynamics, technology and

production management. He is also involved in many national research projects and presents at academic conferences. His

articles have appeared in Technovation and other journals.[22] S. Konicki, Ford Starts Stockpiling, Information Week.

[23] E. Yourdon, Byte Wars: The Impact of September 11 on Information Technology, Prentice Hall Pearson Education INC,

2002.

[24] L. Branscomb, Protecting civil society from terrorism: the search for a sustainable strategy, Technol. Soc. 26 (23) (2004

Dian-Yan Liou received his M.B.A. degree from Dallas Baptist University, U.S.A., and now is a Ph.D. candidate at the

Graduate School of Technology Management, Chung Hua University, Taiwan. He currently works with Dr. Lin on the

application of system dynamics, and is also a lecturer in the Department of Marketing & Logistics Management at Yu Da

College of Business, Taiwan. For several years, he has been interested in the areas of innovation management and marketing

strategy. He has had hundreds of articles published in newspapers and magazines in order to share ideas with the general public

in Taiwan.

Kang-Wei Wu received his bachelors degree from the Department of Biomedical Engineering at Yuanpei Institute of Science

and Technology and is pursuing a masters program at the Graduate School of Public Administration, Chung Hua University,

Taiwan. He also currently collaborates with Dr. Lin on application of system dynamics.

C.-H. Lin et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74 (2007) 148164164

Opportunities and challenges created by terrorismIntroductionTerrorism and international affairsWhat does technology do for terrorism?

Technology development challenged by terrorismMass-casualty attacksBiological weapons and chemical toxinsSuicide attacksInformation technology

Paradigm shift on technologyGlobalization scenarioInfrastructure scenarioCorporate scenarioEducation scenarioIndividual scenario

Technological development prospectsIT will likely be a battlefield in the futureDeveloped countermeasuresBiometricsSurveillanceExplosion-proof and autopilot technologyBiochemical preventionHigh-tech defense

ConclusionAcknowledgmentsReferences