Operational Monitoring and Operational Monitoring and Forecasting in the Aegean SeaForecasting in the Aegean Sea

Kostas NittisKostas Nittis National Centre for Marine Research, Athens, GreeceNational Centre for Marine Research, Athens, Greece

Review of existing monitoring and forecasting systems

Present capabilities

Problems - Limitations

Perspectives

OverviewOverview

Research efforts on O.O. Research efforts on O.O.

POSEIDON Project (1997-2000, 14.1 Meuro EFTA+HMNE)Integrated monitoring and forecasting system: real-time data from buoy network, daily forecasts, end-user products Partners: NCMR, ΟCEANOR, UoA, UoT, NTUAOperational since May 2000

MFS (1998-2001, 2002-2004): Development of multiparametric M3A station, VOS Measurements, High resolution regional and coastal modelsMARSAIS (2001-2003): Synergy between SAR and buoy data, Validation of Algorithms, Detection and forecasting of oil-spillsFerryBox (2002-2005): Implementation of a European network for FerryBox measurements, Operational phase: 2002-2003MAMA (2002-2004): Coordination on Mediterranean Scale, Capacity building, MERSEA (2002-2003): Towards GMES (2008)

Height: 7.9 m Width: 1.75 m Weight: 900 kgr Energy: Solar

panels + batteries Communication:

Imarsat C, GSM every 3 hours

The POSEIDON buoy networkThe POSEIDON buoy network

SeaWatch BuoysSeaWatch BuoysMeteorological SensorsAir TemperatureAtm. PressureWind Speed/Direction“Blue” Sensors TemperatureSalinity CurrentWaves“Green” SensorsDissolved OxygenChlorophyll-A Light Attenuation Radioactivity

End-user productsEnd-user products

POSEIDON Products On-line data (“meteo”, “blue”

and “green”) Processed Data (statistics

etc.) Meteorological Forecasts Sea-State Forecasts (waves) Hydrodynamic model

Forecasts (currents, T,S) Dispersion of Pollutants (oil-

spills) Near-shore wave conditions

www.poseidon.ncmr.gr

Surface circulation characteristics Surface circulation characteristics Nittis et al., GAOS 2002

High frequency variabilityHigh frequency variability

Nittis et al., MPB 2001

Tracing of Water MassesTracing of Water MassesNittis et al., GAOS 2002

Spring bloom monitoringSpring bloom monitoring

The The Μ3ΑΜ3Α System System

M3A MeasurementsM3A Measurements

M3A MeasurementsM3A Measurements

Limiting factors: Bio-foulingLimiting factors: Bio-fouling

Ferry Box SystemsFerry Box Systems

Based on DAUT Based on DAUT model (2d generation)model (2d generation)Resolution: 5kmResolution: 5kmBuoy data Buoy data assimilationassimilationProducts : Height, Products : Height, Direction and Period Direction and Period fieldsfields

Based on POMBased on POMResolution: 5km, Resolution: 5km, 31lev31levRivers and Rivers and Dardanelles outflow Dardanelles outflow simulation simulation PProducts: 3-D roducts: 3-D Velocity, Temperature Velocity, Temperature and Salinity fieldsand Salinity fields

Based on ETA LAMBased on ETA LAMResolution: 20/10 kmResolution: 20/10 kmProducts: Products: WindWind, , Air Air temperaturetemperature, , Relative Relative HumidityHumidity, , PrecipitationPrecipitation, , Cloud coverCloud cover, , AtmAtm.. PressurePressure, , Fog, Fog, … …

Operational Models: POSEIDON (1Operational Models: POSEIDON (1stst generation) generation)

New generation Wave Model (WAM)New generation Wave Model (WAM)

Mediterranean Wave ModelBased on : WAMResolution : 0.25 o

Forced by the coarse (20km) atmospheric model

Aegean Wave ModelNested to Mediterranean modelResolution : 0.05 o

Forced by the fine (10km) atmospheric model

New Generation HD ModelNew Generation HD Model

Eastern Mediterranean ModelBased on : POMResolution : 10 kmVertical Res. : 19 sigma levelsForced by the coarse (20km) atmospheric model Dardanelle's (open boundary) / Rivers Parameterisation

Aegean Sea ModelNested to EMED modelResolution : 5 kmVertical Res. : 31 σ-levelsForced by the fine (10km) atmospheric modelBoundary values updated every 1h (T, S, U, V, W, Z + free radiation)

Initial + boundary values: MODB12 years climatology, 95-99 ECMWF analysis, operational 1999-now Interactive estimation of fluxes (heat-water)

Forecasting Skill Evaluation a) Buoy dataForecasting Skill Evaluation a) Buoy data

BIAS RMSE BIASscore

Current speed

(cm/sec)

Temp. (oC)

Current speed

(cm/sec)

Temp. (oC)

Current speed (%)

Temp. (%)

Lesvos -2.5 -0,4 5,3 0.5 105.8 97.5 Mykonos -7.3 -0.1 11.7 0.3 79.4 100.2 Santorini -1.4 -0.4 6.0 0.4 117.3 97.5 Crete -3.4 -0.2 5.6 0.3 88.5 98.5

Model Against Buoy data Atmospheric Model Statistics

BIAS RMSE BIASscore

Wind speed

(m/sec)

Temp. (oC)

Wind speed

(m/sec)

Temp. (oC)

Wind speed (%)

Temp. (%)

Lesvos -1.38 0.35 2.31 2.11 89.53 100.46 Mykonos -2.11 0.45 3.21 2.95 81.29 101.81 Santorini -0.75 0.23 2.23 1.55 97.00 100.58 Crete -1.25 0.42 2.20 1.84 92.54 102.46

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Forecasting Skill Evaluation b) XBT dataForecasting Skill Evaluation b) XBT data

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Forecasting Skill Eval. c) mesoscale featuresForecasting Skill Eval. c) mesoscale features

SST 1 October 2000: 24h forecast

Forecasted Sea Level Elevation during Summer 2000

AVHRR SST

POSEIDON Operational Oil-spill ModelPOSEIDON Operational Oil-spill Model

Based on: PARCEL model (Koutitas 1988, Johansen 1985)

Processes: •Evaporation (Stiver et al. 1989)•Emulsification (Rasmussen 1985)•Beaching and sedimentation (Gundlach 1987)Advection – diffusion:•3-D current field•Horizontal and vertical mixing coefficients from hydrodynamic model (Smagorinsky, Mellor-Yamada)•Wave field

Additional data:• Date and the position of the “event” • Initial volume of the pollutant •Density of the different elements•Evacuation time(Density of evaporation and emulsification, retention time)

Products:•Oil Concentration•Beaching •Evaporation, emulsification

Pollani et al., MPB 2000

Synergy with SAR data: oSynergy with SAR data: oil slickil slicks detections detection

Synthetic Aperture Radar:Synthetic Aperture Radar:•ERS1/2, RADARSAT, ENVISAT ERS1/2, RADARSAT, ENVISAT •0,056 0,056 μμm, 5,3 GHzm, 5,3 GHz•Repeat cycle: 35 daysRepeat cycle: 35 days•Resolution: 30mResolution: 30m•Swath width: 100Swath width: 100 km (400km km (400km Envisat)Envisat)

Towards forecasting in Coastal AreasTowards forecasting in Coastal Areas

Saronikos Gulf Model

Resolution : 1.8 km

Vertical Res. : 16 σ-levels

Forced by the fine (10km) atmospheric model

Nested to Aegean 5km model: Initial + boundary conditions

Boundary values updated every 1h (T, S, U, V, W, Z + free radiation)

Next steps ?Next steps ?

Extend the current observing capacityDeeper layers (0-500 / 0-1000m)New platforms (eg HF radars)Operational RS products

Continue / Intensify efforts in coastal areas Coordinate efforts with pan-european

monitoring and forecasting efforts – Towards GMES

(GMES Forum, EuroGOOS conference 3-6 December, Athens)