Operational AnalysisOperational AnalysisSupport to the RAF DuringSupport to the RAF DuringOp TELICOp TELIC

Operational AnalysisOperational AnalysisSupport to the RAF DuringSupport to the RAF DuringOp TELICOp TELIC

Presentation to the Presentation to the Defence Study GroupDefence Study Group

Dstl Farnborough 18 Nov 04Dstl Farnborough 18 Nov 04

Air Warfare CentreAir Warfare CentreOperational Analysis ElementOperational Analysis Element

Paul StoddartPaul StoddartScientific Advisor OperationsScientific Advisor Operations

RAF WaddingtonRAF Waddington

18 Nov 0418 Nov 04

Air Warfare Centre

Air Warfare Centre

[dstl]

OA in support

of air

operations

This presentation will be at This presentation will be at

UNCLASSIFIED

CLASSIFICATION CLASSIFICATION

Commandant AWC

Strike Command

Air Warfare CentreAir Warfare Centre

DevelopmentOperations

Operational Analysis Element (OAE)

Ops Support

AWC MissionAWC MissionAWC MissionAWC Mission

“To Provide TimelyIntegrated Mission Support

at the Operational, Tactical

and Technical Levels of Warfare.”

“To Provide TimelyIntegrated Mission Support

at the Operational, Tactical

and Technical Levels of Warfare.”

Operational Analysis ElementOperational Analysis Element

Provide scientific and technical expertise Provide scientific and technical expertise to AWC… to AWC…

for essential and timely mission support to for essential and timely mission support to the front line… the front line…

Operational Analysis ElementOperational Analysis Element

for essential and for essential and timelytimely mission support to mission support to the front line… the front line…

An 80% solution now is better than the An 80% solution now is better than the 100% solution tomorrow100% solution tomorrow

Timescales can be very shortTimescales can be very short

OA DeploymentsOA Deployments

Jan 91 - Operation GRANBY Jan 91 - Operation GRANBY

Jun 95 - Op DELIBERATE FORCEJun 95 - Op DELIBERATE FORCE

Mar 99 - Operation ALLIED FORCEMar 99 - Operation ALLIED FORCE

Feb 03 - Op TELIC / IRAQI FREEDOMFeb 03 - Op TELIC / IRAQI FREEDOM

OAE on Op TELICOAE on Op TELIC

10 analysts deployed to theatre10 analysts deployed to theatre One to National Component HQOne to National Component HQ One to UK Air Component HQOne to UK Air Component HQ 2 to Coalition Air Component HQ2 to Coalition Air Component HQ 6 to deployed attack squadrons (3 bases)6 to deployed attack squadrons (3 bases)

Home team for reachback supportHome team for reachback support

OAE Tasks in Op TELICOAE Tasks in Op TELIC

National Component HQNational Component HQ One OAE analyst (+ other analysts)One OAE analyst (+ other analysts) Collateral damage estimation Collateral damage estimation Advice to Targets officeAdvice to Targets office Advice on weapon effects to RE for repairAdvice on weapon effects to RE for repair Generic wpns advice to UK NCHQ staffGeneric wpns advice to UK NCHQ staff

OAE Tasks in Op TELICOAE Tasks in Op TELIC

UK Air Component HQUK Air Component HQOne OAE analystOne OAE analyst Scientific adviser to UK Air Component CdrScientific adviser to UK Air Component Cdr Questions: varied, operational & tacticalQuestions: varied, operational & tactical

Coalition counter-IADS campaignCoalition counter-IADS campaign Urban Close Air SupportUrban Close Air Support

OAE Tasks in Op TELICOAE Tasks in Op TELIC

Coalition Air HQCoalition Air HQ 2 OAE analysts ‘embedded’ (10+ US staff)2 OAE analysts ‘embedded’ (10+ US staff) Part of Coalition OA Team (principally US)Part of Coalition OA Team (principally US) Campaign AssessmentCampaign Assessment Data compilation (major task)Data compilation (major task)

OAE Tasks in Op TELICOAE Tasks in Op TELIC

Deployed UK attack squadronsDeployed UK attack squadrons 5 (later 6) OAE analysts to 3 bases5 (later 6) OAE analysts to 3 bases No analysts left for early changeoverNo analysts left for early changeover Advice: weapon and system performanceAdvice: weapon and system performance Data collection/compilation Data collection/compilation IT supportIT support

Support to UK Attack SqnsSupport to UK Attack Sqns

Weapon-system performanceWeapon-system performance Laser guided bomb ballisticsLaser guided bomb ballistics Weapon delivery modesWeapon delivery modes Weapon to target matching Weapon to target matching Laser designator/seeker performanceLaser designator/seeker performance

Support to UK Attack SqnsSupport to UK Attack Sqns

Database/tool developmentDatabase/tool development Reporting Program: Reporting Program: Input data onceInput data once

3 x reports output3 x reports output Mission; LGB, RAF HistoricalMission; LGB, RAF Historical

Air Tasking Order parserAir Tasking Order parser Auto break out of sqn missionsAuto break out of sqn missions

Killbox mappingKillbox mapping Mapped no-strike and restricted strike targets in Mapped no-strike and restricted strike targets in

specified killboxspecified killbox

Reachback & Support to AWCReachback & Support to AWC

ReachbackReachback From deployed HQs and Sqns to AWC-From deployed HQs and Sqns to AWC-

based analystsbased analystsStorm Shadow performanceStorm Shadow performanceWeapon applicationsWeapon applications

OAE support to AWCOAE support to AWC Capability measure: Iraqi military systemsCapability measure: Iraqi military systems

Post Conflict AnalysisPost Conflict Analysis

CWEATCWEATCombined Weapons Effect Assessment TeamCombined Weapons Effect Assessment Team In country assessment: ‘boots on the ground’In country assessment: ‘boots on the ground’ Target inspectionTarget inspection Damage assessmentDamage assessment Weapon suitabilityWeapon suitability

We like bridges but...We like bridges but...

...success can be elusive...success can be elusive

LessonsLessons

OA/scientific/IT support to HQs and OA/scientific/IT support to HQs and especially sqns is definitely valued by especially sqns is definitely valued by the military customerthe military customer

Especially to have it ‘on location’Especially to have it ‘on location’

Invited on Afghanistan holiday (Harrier)Invited on Afghanistan holiday (Harrier)

LessonsLessons

GeneralGeneral Training and preparation of analystsTraining and preparation of analysts

Risk assessment: difficult for war zonesRisk assessment: difficult for war zones MedicalMedical Military training/kit - availabilityMilitary training/kit - availability Tools, Techniques, ModelsTools, Techniques, Models: : usage currencyusage currency

Communications for reachbackCommunications for reachback Standard data collection methods/formatsStandard data collection methods/formats Must understand operational contextMust understand operational context

80% answer now >> 100% tomorrow80% answer now >> 100% tomorrow

Lessons contdLessons contd

Locate analysts with customersLocate analysts with customers ie with ie with operatorsoperators at HQs and operating bases at HQs and operating bases

Be active: get out and speak to peopleBe active: get out and speak to people Explain what OA can and cannot achieveExplain what OA can and cannot achieve Get to know them before op deploymentGet to know them before op deployment

Develop relationship before the op startsDevelop relationship before the op starts Get to know people personallyGet to know people personally

Avoid (most) non-OA tasksAvoid (most) non-OA tasks be helpful but do not be an admin drudgebe helpful but do not be an admin drudge

Lessons contdLessons contd

Operational timescales can be very shortOperational timescales can be very short < one hour< one hour

Be accurate, be clear, be rightBe accurate, be clear, be right OA output must be useful to the military OA output must be useful to the military

customercustomer Being correct is not enough; be relevantBeing correct is not enough; be relevant Avoid lengthy, academic studies that have no Avoid lengthy, academic studies that have no

conclusionconclusion ““Further studies are necessaryFurther studies are necessary””

ContextContext

To Achieve 90% PTo Achieve 90% Pkk on a 60’x100’ Target on a 60’x100’ Target

(dumb bombs)(dumb bombs) WWII (B-17)WWII (B-17): : 9,070 9,070

BombsBombs Korea/Vietnam (F-84/F-105)Korea/Vietnam (F-84/F-105):: 176 Bombs 176 Bombs Desert Storm (F-16):Desert Storm (F-16): 30 30

BombsBombs Desert Storm (F-117)Desert Storm (F-117):: 1 LGB 1 LGB

Op TELICOp TELIC

Op GRANBY Op GRANBY 81% dumb weapons81% dumb weapons 19% guided weapons19% guided weapons

Op TELICOp TELIC 16% dumb weapons16% dumb weapons 84% guided weapons84% guided weapons

Op TELIC OA ResultsOp TELIC OA Results

Op TELIC Air domain dataOp TELIC Air domain data > 4 Gb of data> 4 Gb of data (Secret)(Secret) > 10,000 files> 10,000 files > 1,000 images & weapon system videos> 1,000 images & weapon system videos Summarised, analysed and reported: Summarised, analysed and reported:

weapon numbersweapon numbers hit rates hit rates sortie rates (abort numbers and types) sortie rates (abort numbers and types)

Bombing TonnageBombing Tonnage

War Tonnage Length Tons/month

WW2 2,150,000 45 months 47,778

Korea 454,000 37 months 12,270

SEA 6,162,000 140 months 44,014

Gulf 91 60,624 1.5 months 40,416

Gulf 03 29,199 wpns 1.0 month <<40,000

Numbers - OIFNumbers - OIF

Coalition combat ac ~786 Coalition combat ac ~786 20,733 sorties20,733 sorties19,948 guided munitions launched19,948 guided munitions launched9,251 unguided munitions launched9,251 unguided munitions launchedLeaflets Dropped 31,800,000Leaflets Dropped 31,800,000

120,454 rolls of toilet paper120,454 rolls of toilet paper

So What?So What?

What do all the numbers mean? What do all the numbers mean?

Iraq - Op IRAQI FREEDOMIraq - Op IRAQI FREEDOM

Combat Assessment plan initiated earlyCombat Assessment plan initiated early Detailed planDetailed plan

αα Operational ObjectivesOperational Objectives

4 4 αα Tactical ObjectivesTactical Objectives

15 15 αα Tactical TasksTactical Tasks 3-53-5 MoEs per Tactical TaskMoEs per Tactical Task Total data requirement = HUGE !Total data requirement = HUGE !

LessonsLessons

Campaign Assessment (CA)Campaign Assessment (CA) Very challenging: short, high intensity warVery challenging: short, high intensity war Data and analysis ‘hungry’Data and analysis ‘hungry’ How to measure ‘effect’ How to measure ‘effect’

True EBO or kinetic result: crater counting?True EBO or kinetic result: crater counting? CA: early input to planning essentialCA: early input to planning essential

LessonsLessons

Beware the temptation of PowerpointBeware the temptation of PowerpointGlossy slides are not a substitute for Glossy slides are not a substitute for

analysis and adviceanalysis and advice In Op IRAQI FREEDOM, the Coalition In Op IRAQI FREEDOM, the Coalition

had Powerpoint supremacyhad Powerpoint supremacyAir Component Cdr: 200-slide briefings!Air Component Cdr: 200-slide briefings!

Thoughts for the futureThoughts for the future

Campaign/Operation AssessmentCampaign/Operation Assessment How well am I doing?How well am I doing?

Measures of EffectivenessMeasures of Effectiveness How do I know when I have succeeded?How do I know when I have succeeded?

Success Indicators Success Indicators

Measure Measure effecteffect and and progressprogress Effort does Effort does notnot equal progress equal progress

ConclusionsConclusions

OA support to ops worksOA support to ops works but must be quick and relevantbut must be quick and relevant

Technical & tactical areas well coveredTechnical & tactical areas well coveredCampaign Assessment: a capability gapCampaign Assessment: a capability gap

QUESTIONSQUESTIONS