79
~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 ANNUAL DATA AND VERIFICATIC!-i TABULATION ATLANTIC TROPICALCYCLONES 1980 Glenn Taylor and Staff, NHC National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida June 1981 UNITED STATES / NATIONAL OCEANIC AND / Nltional Weather DEPAKTMENT OF COMMERCE ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Serflce Philip M. Klutznicx, Secretary Richard A. Frani, Admlni;trator RlchlrdE. Halleren, Director 9'37

~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

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Page 1: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15

ANNUAL DATA AND VERIFICATIC!-i TABULATION

ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES 1980

Glenn Taylor and Staff, NHC

National Hurricane CenterMiami, FloridaJune 1981

UNITED STATES / NATIONAL OCEANIC AND/ Nltional Weather

DEPAKTMENT OF COMMERCE ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Serflce

Philip M. Klutznicx, Secretary Richard A. Frani, Admlni;trator Rlchlrd E. Halleren, Director

9'37

Page 2: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

INTRODUCTION

This is the seventh report of an annual series prepared by the

National Hurricane Center (NHC) to provide a source of summarized data

on Atlantic tropical cyclones It will not duplicate the narrative

overview of the hurricane season and the description of individual storms,

In addition to data supplied by the National Weather Service,

materials have been furnished by the NOAA National Earth Satellite Services

(NESS) Miami office, and the CARCAH (Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination,

all Hurricanes)

OBJECTIVE FORECAS,!, TECHNIQUE~

The following tropical cyclone prediction models were used at the

National Hurricane Center for forecasting motion on an operational

NHC-67 (Miller, Hill, Chase, 1968) A stepwise screening

regression model using predictors derived from the current and

24-hour old 1000, 700, and 500 mb data, and includes persistence

during the early forecast periods

2.

A filtered barotropic

using input data derived from the 1000 to 100 mb pressure weighted

winds. The model requires use of "bogus" data in data-void areas

The system was modified by Pike (1972) so that the initial

field near the storm would conform to the current storm motion.

HURRAN (Hope and Neumann, 1970) An analog system using as a data

base the tracks of all Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes

dating back to 1886

4 CLIPER (Neumann, 1972). Stepwise multiple screening regression

using the predictors derived from climatology and persistence

(Sanders

and Burpee, 1968).

Page 3: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

,.5. NHC-72 (Neumann, Hope, Miller, 1972). A modified stepwise multiple

screening regression system which combines the NHC-67 concept and

the CLIPER system into a single model.

6.

NHC-73 (Neumann and Lawrence, 1973). Similar in concept to the NHC-72

except it also uses the "perfect prog" and MOS (model output statistics)

methods to introduce NMC (National Meteorological Center) numerical

prognostic data into the prediction equations.

A ten-level baroclinic model whichNMC MFM MODEL. (Hovermale. 1975).

uses a moving fine mesh (MFM) grid nested within the coarser NMC

It is capable of predict-fixed grid primitive equation (PE) model.

ing both track and intensity changes.

In addition, operational forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity changes

in knots at 12-hoprly intervals out to 72 hours are generated by a program

Generation of thenamed SHIFOR <itatistical ~urricane Intensity !2!casts).

forecast equations was done by multiple screening regression techniques using

Results over the past severalhistorical tropical cyclone data as input.

years have shown that SHIFOR and official intensity forecasts have comparable

skill scores.

The National Hurricane Center uses the above models as guidance in the

The hurricane forecaster also makes extensiveformulation of its forecasts.

use of analyses and prognoses produced by NMC and RCTM (Regional Center for

Tropical Metleorology) in Miami.

VERIFI<!:AT~I

Verific~tion statistics for the 1980 season are shown in Table 1. The

I

initial posi~ion ~rror in Table 1 is the difference between the operational

Iinitial posi~ion and that determined during post analysis (best track position).

IThe forecast! displacement error is the vector difference between the forecast

Idisplacement I and the actual displacement computed from best-track positions

2

Page 4: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Landfall prediction errors for the official forecasts are given in Tables

2a and 2b. These are defined as the distance from the predicted landfall

point.

made 24 hours prior to actual landfall. to the actual landfall point.

In cases where a storm either crossed an island or made landfall when predicted

to remain offshore, the error was designated as the distance from the landfall

point to the nearest point on the forecast track.

Tropical cyclone warning lead times for United States landfalling

storms are given in Table 3a. A summary of warning lead times for the

period 1970 -1980 for hurricanes only and for both tropical storms and

hurricanes is given in Table 3b. The length of time between the issuance

of the warnings and the time that the center crossed the coast, as determined

from the "best track", was taken as the warning lead time. A more complete

discussion of the verification of tropical cyclone warning lead times, as

well as verifications for individual storms from 1970 -1977, can be found

in the 1977 Annual Data and Verification Tabulation (Lawrence, Hebert, and

Staff, 1979).

DATA SUMMARIES

A summary of 1980 North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics is given

in Table 4. Tracks of 1980 named storms are shown in Figure 1. No storms

were classified as subtropical during the 1980 hurricane season

The best track, initial, and forecast positions for 1980 named storms

are in Table 5, along with initial position and forecast errors, and storm

average errors.

Table 6 lists all center fix positions and intensity evaluations used

operationally at the National Hurricane Center during 1980. Fixes are in

chronological order, and include those obtained by aerial reconnaissance

penetrations, satellite (Miami SFSS) , and land-based radar. The legend

precedes the initial table

3

Page 5: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Supplementary Vortex Data Messages which replaced Vortex Profiles

in the 1977 Annual Data Tabulation are given in Table 7. A diagram of

the paths flown in obtaining these Data Messages is given in Figure 2.

The symbolic code for interpreting the Data Messages is given as

Appendix A

Table 8 is an aerial reconnaissance summary for the 1980 season

Graphs of the lowest central pressure versus time for 1980 tropical

cyclones are presented in Figure 3.

Daily SMS-2 satellite photographs of 980 named tropical cyclones

are shown in Figure 4.

Selected radar photographs of Hurricane Allen are in Figure 5.

.\CKNOWLEDGMENTS-

Main contributors were Ms. Albertha Sanders, who isted the center

fixes in chronological order; Dr. Joseph Pelissier, who computed the

verification statistics; Mr. Noel Risnychok, who organized satellite and

radar photographs and performed other miscellaneous tasks; Mr. Frank Marques

who did all reduction work on the graphs and tables; and Ms. Lilias Wilson,

who typed the tables and manuscript

4

Page 6: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

REFERENCES

Hope, J. R., and C. J. Neumann, 1970: "An Operational Technique forRe1ating the Movement of Existing Tropical Cyclones to PastTracks," Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 98, No. 23, pp. 925-933.

Hovermale, J. B., and R. E. Livezey, 1977: "Three-Year PerformanceCharacteristics of the NMC Hurricane Model," Preprints~TechnicalConference~ Hurricanes~ Tropical Meteorology,Miami Beach, Amer. Meteor. Soc., pp. 122-125.

Lawrence, M. B., P. J. Hebert, and Staff, NHC, 1979: "Annual Dataand Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1977,"NOAA Technica~ Memorandum NWS NHC-8, 46 pp.

Miller, B. I., E. C. Hill and P. P. Chase, 1968: "Revised Techniquefor Forecasting Hurricane Motion by Statistical Methods," MonthlyWeather Review, Vol. 96, No.8, pp. 540-548.

Neumann, C. J.. 1972: "An Alternatj-ve to the HURRAN Tropical CycloneForecast System. t, ,NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SR-62. 24 pp.

, J. R. Hope and B. I. Miller, 1972: "A Statistical Methodof Combining Synoptic and Empirical Tropical Cyclone PredictionSystems," ~ Technical Memorandum NWS SR-63, 32 pp.

'

, and M. B. Lawrence, 1973: "Statistical-DynamicalPrediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion (NHC-73)," NOM TechnicalMemorandum NWS SR-69, 34 pp.

, 1.979: "A Guide to Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Modelsfor the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion," NOAA TechnicalMemorandum NWS NHC-II, 26 pp. -

Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane Track Prediction byAdjustment of the Initial Wind Field," NOAA Technical MemorandumNWS SR-66 , 16 pp. -

Sanders, F., and R. W. Burpee, 1968: "Experiments in Barotropic HurricaneTrack Forecasting," Journal5?l. Applied Meteorology, Vol. 7, No.3,

pp. 313-323.

Page 7: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Table 1. Verification of 1980 tropical storm and hurricaneforecasts. Figures in parentheses are the number ofcases.

Table 2a. Landfall prediction errors for 1980 tropical stormsand hurricanes.

Table 2b. Eleven-year summary of errors in the prediction ofthe point of landfall of Atlantic tropical storms andhurricanes during the period 1970-1980.

Table 3a. Warning lead times for 1980 landfalling United Statestropical storms and hurricanes.

Summary of warning lead times for hurricanes only andall tropical cyclones for the period 1970-1980.

Table 3b.

Summary of 1980 tropical cyclone statisticsTable 4.

Best track, initial and forecast positions, initialposition error and forecast errors for 1980 tropical

cyclones.

Table 5.

Center fix positions and intensity evaluations for

1980 tropical cyclones.Table 6.

Supplementary Vortex Data Messages. 1980 Atlantic

tropical cyclones.Table 7.

Tropical cyclone reconnaissance summary for 1980 hurricane

season.Table 8.

Tracks of 1980 tropical cyclones.Figure 1.

Flight pattern flown in obtaining Supplementary Vortex

Data Messages.Figure 2.

Lowest pressure vs time, 1980 tropical cyclones.Figure 3.

Daily SMS-2 satellite photographs of 1980 named tropical

cyclones.Figure 4.

Selected radar photographs of Hurricane Allen.Figure 5.

Code for Supplementary Vortex Data Messages of Table 7Appendix A.

6

Page 8: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

7

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Page 9: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Figure 2. Flight pattern flown in obtaining Supplementary Vortex Data

8

Page 10: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane
Page 11: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Hurricane CHARLEY20-25 August 1980

00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00I t I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

20 21 22 23 24 25 26DATE -TIME (GMT)

-""\/""",,-Tropical Storm OANIELLE4- 7 September 1980

00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00I I 1 .I ' I ' I ' I 'I ' I ' I ' I I I I I

4 5 6 7 8DATE -TIME (GMT)

Figure 3 continued.

10

Page 12: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

tQric~ EARL4-10 September 1980

00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00I I I I I' I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11MTE -TME (GMT)

00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00I ' I 'r ' I 'I 'I I I ' I ' I ' I ' I ' I ' I ' I ' I I I

6 7 8 9 10 II 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21DATE -TIME (GMT)

Figure 3 continued.

11

Page 13: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

1020.

1020 r-

Figure 3 continued.

12

Page 14: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Figure 3 continued.

13

Page 15: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

1020

1010

Hurricane KARL25-27 November 1980

Ix:Q. 980

::_-""._."--'\"J-'~~~~-"-'--

970

-

o~ '.2 0:0 1,2 ~~o25 26 27 28

DATE -TIME (GMT)

Figure 3 continued

14

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§ 990,U)U)~

Page 16: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

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4. Daily SMS-2 satellite photographs of 1980 named tropical cyclones.! 15

Page 17: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

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Page 18: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

EARL

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4 continued.;,

Page 19: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

F~CES (aff,

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Page 20: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

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Page 21: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

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Page 22: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

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Page 25: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Table 1. Verification of 1980 tropical storm and hurricane forecasts.

Figures in parentheses are number of cases.

IIITIALPOSITION

ERROR (N.MI.)FORECAST DISPLACEMENT ERRORS (N. MI.)

12 HR 24 HR 48 HR 72 HRMETHOD

OFFICIAL 16(209)

126(188)

55(199)

274(140)

405(109)

NHC67 17(105)

55(105)

113(94)

251(73)

346(55)

NHC72 16(200)

370(111)

63(200)

133(179)

281(142)

15(88)

348(65)

HURRAN SO(88)

103(81)

219.~74)

16(201)

265(143)

384(112)

CLIPER 59(201)

131(180)

1.6

(49)396(26)

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112(94)

230(34)

15(61)

61(61)

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284(40)

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84(17)

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171(12)

---(0)

24

Page 26: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Landfall prediction errors for 1980 tropical storms and hurricanes.Table 2a.

Following is a list of landfall prediction errors for tropical stor~s and hurricanesduring 1980. Each error represents the distance (in nautical miles) from the predictedlandfall point determined from the "Official" forecast issued 24 hours prior to landfallto the actual landfall point determined from the Best Track. Only tropical storms andhurricanes are included. In some cases the storm crossed an island when predicted topass offshore. In such cases, the perpendicular distance from the landfall point tothe forecast track is taken as the landfall prediction error.

Location and RemarksDate/Time (Z)of

Landfall

LandfallForecastError (n.mi)

StorQl Name Categoryat

Landfall

08/04/01Z South part of eyewallbrushed Barbados

Allen (I) 90 mi. northHurricane

08/04/06Z North part of eyewallbrushed St. Lucia

Allen (II) Hurricane 90 mi. north

08/06/00Z North part of eyewallbrushed southwest tipof Haiti

80 mi. southAllen (III) Hurricane

08/06/18Z 20 mi. southAllen (IV) Hurricane

08/10/06ZAllen (V)

Bonnie.JCharley

Hurricane 75 mi. north

South part of eyewallskirted Cayman Brac andLittle Cayman Island

North of Brownsville, TX

(no landfall)

Tropical Storm 09/06/00Z Storm developed within24 hours of landfall

Danielle

25 mi. north Northern Belize

Storm crossed coast ofMexico in southern Gulfof Mexico. but forecast toremain offshore

Ivan, Karland Jeanne

(no landfall)

Table 2b. Eleven-year summary of errors in the prediction of the points oflandfall of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes during theperiod 1970-1980.

United States Landfalls All Landfa)ls

1980 Average 24-Hour Landfall Prediction Error(number of cases)

11 Year Average. 1970-1980(number of cases)

75 miles(1)

41 miles(19)

63 miles(6)

51 miles(51)

25

Page 27: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

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Page 39: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

LEGEND FOR TABLE 6

Key to fix characteristics

SATELLITE:

Classification confidence*, location and confidence**resolution (Km).

,

visible or infrared,

*1 = completely certain as to current intensity number used.

2 = tempted to vary up or down by ~ T or S number.

3 = might vary up or down by 1 T or S number, or more.

**1 = well defined eye with certain picture registration.

2 = well defined eye with uncertain picture registration.

3 = well defined circulation center with certain picture registration.

4.= well defined circulation center with uncertain picture registration.

S = poorly defined circulation center with certain picture registration.

6 = poorly defined circulation center with uncertain picture registration

RECONNAISSANCE:

Navigational Accuracy/Meteorological Accuracy.

RADAR:

BRa = Brownsville, Texas

CRP = Corpus Christi, Texas

MKPB = Barbados, W. I. (Caribbean Meteorological Institute)

MKJP = Kingston, Jamaica

38

Page 40: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

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Page 66: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

ALLEN--

URNT12 KMIA 040020 CORAF972 0102 ~ OB 19 COR KMIA

SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 32DEG FLI00RIGHT FRONT QUAD83117 81004 43055 40908 33017 31009 13968 1100903860 01413 64035 50080 34120 MX095 32005 IIIIIRIGHT REAR QUAD83116 80907 43085 40908 33058 31008 13968 1101003860 01413 64035 50100 34130 MX095 05005 IIIIILEFT FRONT QUAD08309 81007 4306041008 33031 31009 13981 1120803807 01413 64025 50060 34110 MXII0 32005 IIIIILEFT REAR QUAD83108 80909 43070 40908 33035 31008 13990 1100803810 01414 64025 50030 34090 MXII0 04004 IIIII

URNT12 KMIA 041340AF967 0202 ALLEN OB 04 KMIA

SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 27DEG FL100RIGHT FRONT QUAD83061 80807 41111 41111 33960 31010 13823 1090903628 01512 64046 55058 34068 MX071 09030 11111

66

'""~

Page 67: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

[able 7 continued.

URNT12 KMIA 041759 CORAF985 0302 ALLEN DB 16 COR KMIA

SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 15DEG FL100

RIGHT FRONT QUAD83044 41110 4//// 4//// 33910 31210 13866 1121003610 01514 64100 50110 34190 MX080 33010 40000LEFT REAR QUAD83094 80909 43048 41007 33977 31110 13918 1141003610 01514 64053 50100 34/// MX080 15015 40000RIGHT REAR QUAD83078 80808 43039 40903 33947 31110 13868 1120903526 01515 64/// 50/// 34/// MX107 04007 40000LEFT REAR QUAD83037 80909 43000 40909 33955 30909 13785 1111103526 01516 64/// 50/// 34/// MX090 21030 40000REMARKS LTG S.W. QUAD. LEFT REA AZIMUTH ALTERED TO 090

URNT12 KMIA 070455AF972 1102 ALLEN OB 15 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 29DEG FL100

LEFT FRONT QUAD83072 80907 43025 41107 33002 31010 13924 1121103645 01910 64018 50029 34088 MX072 23013 IIIIILEFT REAR QUAD83061 80909 43035 41006 31111 31111 13792 1101003655 01811 64025 50045 34074 MX075 15018 IIIIIRIGHT F.RflRT QlIAD81111 81111 43041 41109 33008 31111 13887 1121203576 01811 64025 50040 34111 MX082 29012 IIIIIRIGHT REAR QUAD81111 81111 43064 41010 33015 31010 13881 1101003629 01811 64038 50050 34111 MX108 07011 IIIII

67

Page 68: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

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Page 69: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Table 7 continued.

URNT12 KMIA 071024AF964 1202 ALLEN OB 11 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 28DEG FL100LEFT FRONT QUAD83043 81110 43973 41111 33925 31212 13742 1131303437 02310 64035 50060 34090 MX090 25015 IIIIILEFT REAR QUAD83050 81111 43998 41010 33954 31111 13704 1121203388 02210 64040 50070 34111 MX120 16010 IIII

URNT12 KMIA 071456

AF964 1202 ALLEN OB 20 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 28DEG FLl00

RIGHT FRONT QUAD83028 81111 4399741212 33995 31310 13778 1131303327 02110 64040 50080 34/// MX085 31030 40000LEFT REAR QUAD83065 81010 43028 41111 33995 31111 13851 1111103278 02314 64030 50050 34/// MX110 15015 45000

URNT12 KMIA 080835AF985 1502 ALLEN OB 11 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 30DEG FLI00

RIGHT FRONT QUAD83025 81109 43982 41110 33939 31111 13739 1131203590 01313 64030 50111 34111 MX067 35015 1111/LEFT REAR QUAD89111 81009 43010 41108 33970 31110 13900 1121103590 01313 64020 50025 34111 MX076 19015 1IIIiRIGHT REAR QUAD83038 81009 43988 41111 33953 31111 13900 1111103624 01414 64035 50111 34111 MX082 08019 11///

LEFT FRONT QUAD83019 81110 43986 41110 33948 31111 13872 1121103624 01414 64111 50022 34035 MX070 24007 11111

68

Page 70: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

~Table

7 continued.

GEORGES

URNT12 KMIA 062030AF985 0407 CYCLONE OB 14 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 030DEG FL015RIGHT FRONT QUAD80008 82423 40006 42423 30006 32423 10006 1242200007 02522 64111 50111 34120 MX040 06080 11111LEFT FRONT QUAD81111 81111 40008 42220 31111 31111 10006 1212100004 02422 64111 50111 34111 MX025 36015 11111

(,Q

Page 71: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Table 7 continued.

HERMINE

URNT12 KMIA 221340 CORAF968 0811 HERMINE OB 19 COR KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 310DEG FLI00

RIGHT REAR QUAD83089 80805 43069 40907 33060 30905 13056 1100603053 01306 64111 50070 34060 MX053 11070 IIIIIRIGHT FRONT QUAD83099 80805 43085 40905 33069 30905 13056 1090603053 01306 64111 50111 34100 MX046 36045 IIIIIRIGHT REAR QUAD83099 80807 43072 41007 33060 31006 13053 1100703040 01307 64111 50111 34040 MX048 06085 IIIIIRIGHT FRONT QUAD83111 80705 43093 40706 31111 31jll 13058 1100503040 01307 64111 50111 34080 MX048 07045 IIIII

URNT12 K.."1IA 240346AF977 1111 HERMINE OB 13 KMIA

SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 31DEG FL100

RIGHT FRONT QUAD83091 81107 43049 41308 33036 31310 13027 1131000993 02625 64111 50050 34075 MX054 35545 11111LEFT FRONT QUAD83078 81109 43047 41210 33036 31410 13022 1131203024 01412 64111 50111 34090 MX048 31080 11111RIGHT REA QUAD83109 81008 4306141010 33036 31212 13017 1121203024 01412 64111 50111 34111 MX026 05080 11111

70

Page 72: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Table 7 continued.

URNT12 KMIA 240610AF977 1111 HERMINE OB 16 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 31DEG FL100LEFT FRONT QUAD83090 81008 43042 41311 33031 31311 13028 1181003028 01310 64/// 50075 34090 MX048 31045 ///1/RIGHT FRONT QUAD8//// 8//// 43060 41111 33039 31212 13033 1121003028 01310 64/// 50/// 34/// MX/// 3//// ////1

71

Page 73: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Table 7 continued.

JEANNE

URNT12 KMIA 110054 CORAF977 0513 JEANNE OB 10 COR KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 360DEG FL015

RIGHT FRONT QUAD80004 82424 40002 42424 30000 32525 10997 1262600997 02626 64111 50111 34111 MX040 04590 11111LEFT FRONT QUAD80005 82121 40999 42424 30000 32424 10999 1262400998 02624 64111 50100 34111 MX050 315/1 11111LEFT REAR QUAD83079 81203 41111 41111 30001 32424 10000 1232300998 02624 64/11 50111 34111 MX045 21545 11111

URNT12 KMIA 111310AF980 0613 JEANNE OB 15 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 350DEG FL100RIGHT REAR QUAD83104 81353 43089 41200 33067 31309 13058 1130903053 01208 64111 50111 34111 MX026 14045 11111RIGHT FRONT QUAD8309181010 41111 41111 33073 31108 13064 1100903025 01309 64111 50111 34100 MX048 09014 11111LEFT REAR QUAD83093 80906 43071 41104 33060 31206 13042 1130603025 01309 64111 50010 34050 MX052 20010 11111RIGHT REAR QUAD83096 81154 43075 41202 33071 31303 13039 1110703111 01111 64111 50015 34030 MX062 10009 11111REMARKS LAST REPORT OBS 01-15 TO KMIA

72

Page 74: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

\...

Table 7 continued.

URNT12 KMIA 120045AF964 0713 JEANNE OB 11 KMIA

SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 03DEG FLO15LEFT REAR QUAD

89/// 8//// 49/// 42419 39/// 32521 19/// 1252309/// 02308 64040 50050 34/// MX065 25040 05000RIGHT REAR QUAD

89/// 8//// 49/// 42222 39/// 32522 19/// 1262209/// 02722 64/// 50/// 34030 MX045 16025 /////RIGHT FRONT QUAD

89/// 8//// 49/// 42222 39/// 32422 19/// 1252209/// 02722 64035 50050 34/// MX065 07025 10000LEFT FRONT QUAD

89/// 81919 49/// 42222 39/// 32422 19/// 1252209/// 02623 64/// 50/// 34/// MX086 34080 12000LAST REPORT ALL OBS THRU KMIA ETA KBIX 12/0500z

URNT12 KMIA 120740AF964 0713 JEANNE OB 10 KMIA

SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 03DEG FL100LEFT FRONT QUAD83126 80505 43115 40706 33108 30908 13090 1090903961 01810 64050 50080 34095 MX065 32030 12000

73

Page 75: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

-;

Table 7 continued.

URNT12 KMIA 121208 CORAF972 0813 JEANNE OB 17 COR KMIA

SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 230DEG FLI00LEFT REAR QUAD83104 807// 43089 410// 33079 311// 13043 115//03006 01406 64/// 50/// 34030 MX045 14015 II/IIRIGHT REAR QUAD83132 809// 43091 409// 33084 308// 1//// 114//03037 014// 64/// 50/// 34/// MX032 14015 II/IIRIGHT FRONT QUAD83100 808// 43094 408// 33075 310// 13065 114//03037 014// 64/// 50/// 34025 MX039 04515 II/IILEFT REAR QUAD83093 807// 43084 408// 33078 308// 13053 111//03036 013// 64/// 50/// 34020 MX040 16018 II/IIUNABLE TO FLY RIGHT FRONT DUE TO TSTM/CB AND LTNG

II

URNT12 KMIA 122119-AF964 0913 JEANNE OB 17 KMIA.--, SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

AZIMUTH 27DEG FLI00LEFT FRONT QUAD83114 80606 43084 40907 33009 31005 13074 1100303066 01103 64/// 50/// 34/// MXO14 21015 07000LEFT REAR QUAD83097 80909 43091 40952 33076 31153 19/// 19///03058 01104 64/// 50/// 34050 MX040 13550 08000RIGHT REAR QUAD83095 80800 42088 40758 33067 30906 13061 1110403058 01104 64/// 50/// 34/// MX030 04545 08000RIGHT FRONT QUAD83063 80707 43046 41104 39/// 39/// 19/// 19///03048 01103 64/// 50/// 34/// MX/// ///// 06000

74

Page 76: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

~

Table 7 continued.

URNT12 KMIA 130116 COR 03AF980 1013 JEANNE OB 07 COR 03 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 28DEG FL010RIGHT REAR QUAD80008 82121 40004 42323 30002 32323 10001 1232300999 02424 64/// 50090 34/// MX055 01060 06000LAST REPORT ALL OBS THRU KMIA ATA KBIX 13/0035z

URNT12 KMIA 130943AF972 1113 JEANNE OB 14 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 30DEG FL050RIGHT FRONT QUAD82485 81512 42442 21515 32411 31515 1//// 1////02401 02013 64045 50080 34/// MX065 06045 /////LEFT FRONT QUAD82475 81513 42460 41513 3//// 3//// 1//// 1////all// all// 64/// SO/II 34/1/ MX027 19030 /1111RIGHT FRONT QUAD83098 80800 4//// 411// 32420 31712 12385 1191102337 02510 64/// 50040 34/// MX055 07030 1//1/LAST REPORT OBS 01 THRU 14 TO KMIAETA TO KBIX AT 13/10000z

75

Page 77: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

~

Table 7 continued.

URNT12 KMIA 131550AF553 1213 JEANNE OB 11 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 34DEG FL100RIGHT FRONT QUAD8310180702 4308840700 33085 30605 13083 1070203962 01151 64020 50040 34140 MX071 06020 25000LEFT REAR QUAD83060 80606 43036 40851 33997 30805 13974 1110303962 01151 64/// 50/// 34/// MX033 22030 25000RIGHT REAR QUAD83072 80604 43063 40503 33033 30902 13994 1080803985 01003 64/// 50/// 34050 MX042 18045 30000LEFT FRONT QUAD83076 80751 43034 40803 33009 30808 13984 1090403072 00604 64/// 50080 34080 }~057 32045 30000GROUPS 13 AND 14 POS 25. 6N 91.3W WND LESS THAN

34KT IN LEFT REAR QUAD

URNT12 KMIA 140624 "AF980 1313 JEANNE OB 17 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 27DEG FL999LEFT FRONT QUAD83106 80601 43082 40603 33066 60808 13039 1110503018 01106 64111 50111 34111 MX033 22030 11111LEFr REAR QUAD83115 80403 43109 40505 39111 31111 191/1 111/103024 01203 64111 50111 34111 MX028 12015 11111RIGHT REAR QUAD83109 80700 43126 40151 33075 30711 13059 1090703044 01203 64111 50111 34111 MX031 07015 111I1

76

Page 78: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Table 7 continued.

URNT12 KMIA 141132 CORAF968 1413 JEANNE OB 10 COR KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 36DEG FL100

RIGHT FRONT QUAD83115 805004310840601 33097 30806 13069 1090603063 01004 64/.// 50111 34111 MX022 02045 IIIIILEFT REAR QUAD83111 80202 43102 40500 33092 30606 13090 1080703063 01004 64111 50111 34045 MX037 22015 IIIIIRIGHT REAR QUAD83119 80403 43097 40500 33086 30602 13086 1110503073 01106 64/// 50111 34111 MX027 12030 IIIIILEFT FRONT QUAD83117 80756 43106 40706 33094 30707 13082 1100503073 01106 64/1/ 50111 34030 MX035 36030 IIIII

URNT12 KMIA 141510,AF968 1413 JEANNE OB 15 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGEAZIMUTH 32DEG FL100LEFf FRONT QUAD83121 80861 43118 40963 33112 30652 13103 1095203091 01132 64111 50111 34015 MX038 27015 11111RIGHT REAR QUAD81111 81111 41111 41111 33113 30656 13099 1105403091 01153 64111 50111 34111 MX020 09030 11111LAST REPORT OBS 01-15 TO KMIA

URNT12 KMIA 142155AF964 1513 JEANNE OB 09 KMIASUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

AZIMUTH 05DEG FLO10'

RIGHT REAR QUAD80012 82222 40010 42222 30006 32222 10004 1232300002 02323 64/// 50/// 34/// MX030 18045 06000LEFT FROM! QUAD80011 82222 40008 42121 30005 32020 10003 1232300002 02424 64/// 50/// 34030 MX035 34030 06000

.,.,

Page 79: ~OM Technical Memorandtnn NWS NHC 15 · Memorandum for the Prediction NWS NHC-II, of Tropical 26 pp. Cyclone Motion," -NOAA Technical Pike, A. C., 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane

Table 8. Tr~pical Cyclone Reconnaissance Summary for 1980.

1.

Requirements Levied Atlantic Eastern & Central Pacific

Cyclones 130 0

Invest 14 0

TOTAL 144 0

2.

Requirements Accomplished Atlantic Eastern & Central Pacific53 WRS (cyclones/invest)

29/5 0/0920 WRG (cyclones/invest)

76/9 0/0RFC (cyclones/invest) 23/0 ~

*TOTAL 128/14 0/03. M:issions Flown Atlantic Eastern & Centr~l Pacific

53 WRS 19 0

920 WRG46 0

RFC 11 ~TOTAL 76 0

4. Flying Time Atlantic Eastern & Central Pacific

53 WRS 229.9 a920 WRG 374.4 0

RFC

TOTAL 698.8 0

5. Observations Horizontal 1340 Vertical 123

*Two unaccomplished requirements.Includes RFC photo damage survey mission.Does not include ferry missions or flying time.

78