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1. A short introduction to VesselsValue
2. Offshore Valuation Methodology
3. Offshore Vessel Values: Reality versus Fantasy?
4. The power of GIS & AIS together
INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE
The Online Market Intelligence and Valuation Service
INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE
INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE
ESTABLISHED 2010 OFFICES London (HQ), Isle of Wight (Data), Stoke (Coders), Singapore (Asia) PEOPLE 90 (from 4 in 2010)
INTRODUCTION TO VESSELSVALUE
CLIENTS 392 companies, 960 logins, 48 countries CLIENT TYPES Banks, Owners, Funds, Governments, Regulators, Lawyers
OVERVIEW OF SERVICES
VV$ INSTANT VALUES
• Daily updated values for Vessels, Companies, Portfolios
• Tankers, Bulkers, Containers, LNG, LPG, PSVs, AHTSs, AHTs, MODUs
• Accuracy tested and reported
• Full supporting information (time series, transactions etc)
• Instant valuation certificates
OVERVIEW OF SERVICES
VV+ POWERFUL & INTERACTIVE DATABASE
• Search and compare by any combination of criteria
• Fleet search: vessels, companies, specifications, incidents, locations, laden/ballast
• Deals search: S&P, Newbuilds, Demolitions, Charters
OVERVIEW OF SERVICES
VV@ INTEGRATED AIS AND GIS
• AIS Satellite and Terrestrial mapping/tracking
• GIS Maritime energy infrastructure (oil fields, platforms, pipelines, windfarms)
• Automated alerts (i.e. sanction zones, OSV activity around rigs)
KEY STAFF
Board
OFFSHORE VALUATION METHODOLOGY (MODU & OSV)
OSV MARKET VALUE MODEL
OSV FEATURES VS VALUE
• Fire-fighting (FiFi)
capability • Deck strength • Deck area • Total
accommodation • Supply capacity • Dynamic positioning • Ice Class • Design
• Chain capacity • Chain lockers • Oil recovery • Survivor
capacity/equipment • Generators • Number of
winches/drums • Helideck • Gearing
SIGNIFICANT MODU FEATURES VS VALUE
• Drilling Depth (FT) • Rated Water Depth (FT) • Generation • Derricks • Top Drive • BOP PSI
• Mud Pumps (no. and PSI) • Variable Deck Load • Total Accommodation • DP • Specification/Harsh Environment • Drill Floor
MARKET SENTIMENT VS VALUE
In cargo sector, TCE’s can be used to model sentiment when no transaction However, offshore vessel charter rates are NOT a consistent proxy for market sentiment
This is because do NOT take into account utilisation of the vessels (i.e. no TCE) Therefore, we have to use other metrics….
MARKET SENTIMENT VS VALUE
Offshore values correlate with long term oil price trends VV algorithms process oil prices into trends = VV Oil Price Index (SOM) VV Oil Price Index = what moves values between transactions
MARKET SENTIMENT VS VALUE
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1/4/2005 1/4/2006 1/4/2007 1/4/2008 1/4/2009 1/4/2010 1/4/2011 1/4/2012 1/4/2013 1/4/2014 1/4/2015 1/4/2016
Offshore SOM - Brent Crude Oil
Brent Crude Oil Spot($/barrel) Combined SOM PSV (Large)
HOW WE DELIVER THE INFORMATION
AN EXAMPLE OF VV OFFSHORE VALUATION PAGE
AN EXAMPLE OF VV OFFSHORE VALUATION PAGE
AN EXAMPLE OF COMPANY FLEET PAGE
AN EXAMPLE OF COMPANY FLEEET PAGE
OFFSHORE CHARTER FREE VESSEL VALUES: REALITY VERSUS FANTASY
MARKET REACTION
Some Negative “VesselsValue does not know what they are doing and should concentrate on assessing the value of tankers and bulk carriers.” Norweigan Shipowner X, quoted in Dagens Naeringsliv (a Norwegian daily newspaper) in May 2016
Some Positive “Vessels Value have come a long way in setting the standard for blue sea shipping in precise, prompt valuations in a relatively short period of time. By applying similar metrics along with known differentiators in the offshore space they will achieve this too with their offshore product.” Singaporean Offshore Broker Y
NOTES TO THE ACCOUNTS
MARKET UNCERTAINTY
“Valuation has been received from accredited brokers for all
vessels. Due to a limited number of sale and purchase
transactions in the current market, there is a large
uncertainty related to the received broker estimates.”
FANTASY
Huge variation in values provided by brokers For example, same AHTS (blt 2016, 28k bhp), same day, charter free market value: • Far East offshore broker: USD 30m
• Scandinavian offshore broker: USD 90m
• c.200% spread = lack of confidence in values
REALITY
High of $35m Aug 2008 VV Value the day before sale = $200k difference
Sold for $1.5m November 2016
REALITY
VV Value the day before sale = $800k difference
Sold for $30m January 2015
High of $43m July 2014
REALITY
High of $17.9m March 2008
Sold for $9m Jan 2015
VV value day before sale = $50k difference
REALITY
High of $74.2m Feb 2008 VV Value day before = $2.3m difference
Sold for $50.5m January 2014
MORE THAN VALUES
OFFSHORE MAPPING
• Fields: 6,613 • Licenses: 103,946 • Pipelines: 20,898 • Platforms: 12,870 • Wells: 107,845 • Terminals: 309 • Windfarms: 248 • Offshore Support Vessels: 7,776 • Mobile Offshore Drilling Units: 1,017
= LIVE OFFSHORE MARKET DATA
AIS + GIS = REAL TIME DATA
REAL TIME DATA = MARINER FIELD LIVE
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION
Offshore is more complex than Cargo
CONCLUSION
Offshore is less liquid than Cargo
CONCLUSION
Offshore is more opaque than Cargo
CONCLUSION
In Complicated, Illiquid and Opaque Markets
Objective, Accurate and Immediate
Information is Critical
This is what we do
THANK YOU
