Oakland Unified School District

Demographic Trends and Downtown Development

September 6, 2006

Shelley Lapkoffwww.Demographers.com

Topics Covered

• District-wide enrollment changes

• Downtown developments

– Housing forecast

– Student yields in new development

– Student yields in older housing

– Forecast of students from Downtown housing developments

District-wide Enrollment Trends

• Cycle of events creating enrollment decline

• Significant enrollment decline after the dotcom bust

• Enrollment decline created financial problems• Financial problems led to the state takeover• State takeover and closing schools resulted in

further enrollment decline

• Enrollment decline is likely to be temporary, with OUSD eventually returning to more normal enrollment levels

K-12 Enrollments (Excludes Charter Students)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

% Change in Annual Enrollments Excluding Charters

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%19

81>

82

1982

>83

1983

>84

1984

>85

1985

>86

1986

>87

1987

>88

1988

>89

1989

>90

1990

>91

1991

>92

1992

>93

1993

>94

1994

>95

1995

>96

1996

>97

1997

>98

1998

>99

1999

>00

2000

>01

2001

>02

2002

>03

2003

>04

2004

>05

Year

Pe

rce

nt

of

Stu

de

nts

Actual Loss with EFC excluded

Kindergarten Enrollments, 1981 to 2005

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,00019

81

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

Ratio of Kindergartners to Births Five Years Earlier

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Year of Enrollment

Per

cen

tag

e o

f b

irth

s th

at r

esu

lt i

n

kin

der

gar

ten

en

roll

men

t With EFC

Elementary Enrollments

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

Including Charters

Middle School Enrollments

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

Including Charters

High School Enrollments

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts

Downtown Development

• Over 14,000 housing units to be built, including 1,800 already built

• Most developments will be high-rise luxury condominiums that do not contain many children

• “Affordable” units can significantly impact OUSD enrollments

# Units

Completed 1,779

Under Construction 2,391

Planning Approval 2,529

In Planning 3,389

Subtotal 10,088

Oak to 9th 3,100 (maximum)

OUSD Admin Bldg 1,200 (average)

Total 14,388

Downtown Oakland Housing Projects as of Summer, 2006

Enrollment Impact Depends on Student Yield

• Only three students live in Downtown’s recently-constructed market rate housing (over 1,700 units)

• The one non-senior affordable housing project contained 16 students in 42 units.

• Older high-rise buildings also had low yields, though a few complexes contained children.

Development Name Address # of Units2005 OUSD

Students K-12 YieldSwans Market 1625 Clay St 42 0 0.00Phoenix Lofts 737 2nd St 21 0 0.00YWCA 1515 Webster St 50 0 0.00Gem Building Condos 485 8th St 16 1 0.06The Landing @ JLS 99 Embarcadero 282 0 0.00Allegro Lofts 240 3rd St 310 1 0.00New Market Lofts 201 4th St 46 0 0.00The Essex 108 17th St 270 0 0.008th and Castro Lofts Gerry Adams Way 18 0 0.00Telegraph Lofts 2633 Telegraph 53 1 0.02The Sierra @JLS 311 Oak St 229 0 0.00Landmark Place 1101-20 MLK Jr. Way 92 0 0.00Midtown 426 27th St/425 28th St 20 0 0.00The Telegraph 2401 Telegraph Ave 45 0 0.00Franklin 88 933 Franklin 88 0 0.00Market Square Ph 1 801-27 Clay St 116 0 0.00Total Market Rate Units 1698 3 0.002

Northgate Apts 2301 Northgate 42 16 0.38

Affordable Senior HousingOak St Terrace (seniors) 109 Oak St 39 0 0.00

Student Yields in Recently Constructed Developments

Affordable Development

Name Type Yr Built (approx) # Stories # of Units 2000-01 2001-02 2005-06 2000-01 2001-02 2005-06

1200 Lakeshore Apt 1964 25 172 4 3 1 0.02 0.02 0.01

244 Lakeside Dr Apt 1929 12 58 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

266 Lenox Apt n/a 7 36 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

286 Graystone Apt n/a 7 36 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

1555 Lakeside Dr Apt 1966 13 81 2 1 0 0.02 0.01 0.00

Regency Towers; 1130 3rd Ave Apt 1976 18 178 45 47 23 0.25 0.26 0.13

Subtotal (apts) 561 51 51 24 0.09 0.09 0.04

200 Lakeside Dr Condo 1881 8 39 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Van Buren Tower; 320 Lee St Condo 1962 12 68 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Bellevue-Staten; 492 Staten Ave Condo 1929 15 36 1 0 0 0.03 0.00 0.00

412 8th St Condo 1971 13 328 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

177 19th St Condo 1959 12 55 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

565 Bellevue Condo 1969 25 152 0 0 1 0.00 0.00 0.01

Mayfair Apts; 400 Perkins St Condo 1929 6 60 2 2 0 0.03 0.03 0.00

Pacific Renaissance; 988 Franklin St Condo 1994 16 200 11 11 12 0.06 0.06 0.06

Subtotal (condos) 938 14 13 13 0.015 0.014 0.014

OUSD Student Yields in Older High Rises

K to 12 Students K-12 Student Yields

Key Assumptions in Forecasting Students from Downtown Development

• Percentage of units that will be “affordable”

• Student yield of market rate units

• Student yield of the affordable units

• Grade distribution of students from new housing

• Number and type of units built

Total Units BMR % # BMR Units14,400 x 15% = 2,160

BMR Units Yield # Students2,160 x 0.4 = 864

Market Units Yield # Students12,240 x 0.03 = 367

Total 1,231

Medium Forecast

Total Units BMR % # BMR Units14,400 x 5% = 720

BMR Units Yield # Students720 x 0.4 = 288

Market Units Yield # Students13,680 x 0.01 = 137

Total 425

Low Forecast

Total Units BMR % # BMR Units14,400 x 15% = 2,160

BMR Units Yield # Students2,160 x 0.7 = 1,512

Market Units Yield # Students12,240 x 0.1 = 1,224

Total 2,736

High Forecast

Low Forecast Medium Forecast High Forecast

K to 5 60% 255 739 1,642

6 to 8 20% 85 246 547

9 to 12 20% 85 246 547

K to 12 100% 425 1,231 2,736

Possible Grade Distributions

Number of Students Assuming:

Accommodating Students in OUSD Facilities

• Do not assume that current facilities can accommodate students from new housing:

– Enrollments are probably low only temporarily

– Oak & 9th is isolated by the freeway and railroad tracks

– Some of the elementaries are now full, despite the recent decline

• If enrollments warrant it, Carter (and more of Lowell) middle school could be re-opened. Then McClymonds would have space for additional high school students, assuming the middle school students now served there return to middle school campuses.

• If the Medium and High forecast materializes, a plan is needed to house additional elementary students.

Summary

• OUSD has had abnormal enrollment declines, and now has very low enrollments. We do not yet know whether this year’s enrollments will continue this downward trend.

• Probably about 1,200 students will be generated from downtown housing, assuming that 15 percent of the units will be “affordable.”

• The District will want various contingency plans to decide how to accommodate the students from new development. The elementary enrollment increase may be the most difficult to handle.

Questions???