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Sidang Akhbar Prestasi Ekonomi pada Suku Pertama Tahun 2015
Gabenor Bank Negara Malaysia
15 Mei 2015
Embargo
Not for publication or broadcast before 1200 hours on Friday, 15 May 2015
Sidang akhbar akan meliputi: • Prestasi ekonomi pada suku pertama tahun 2015
• Perkembangan monetari dan kewangan
1
2
Global Growth
Moderate global economic expansion in 1Q 2015
p Preliminary estimate a Advance estimate r Revised Source: National authorities
• Divergence of growth momentum across major economies
• Sustained economic recovery in the US and UK
• Subdued growth in the euro area
and Japan • Growth in Asia continues to be
sustained by the expansion of domestic demand
Real GDP (Annual change, %)
2014 2015
1Q 4Q Year 1Q
Advanced economies
US 1.9 2.4 2.4 3.0a
UK 2.7r 3.0r 2.8r 2.4p
Euro area 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0p
Asian economies
PR China 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.0
Chinese Taipei 3.4 3.3r 3.7r 3.5a
Indonesia 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.7
Korea 3.9 2.7 3.3 2.4a
Singapore 4.6 2.1r 2.9r 2.1a
6.3 6.5
5.6 5.7 5.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
100
150
200
250
300
1Q 2011
2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2012
2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2013
2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2014
2Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 2015
RM bn (2010 =100) Annual change (%)
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
3
Real GDP growth
Real GDP
The Malaysian economy expanded by 5.6% in 1Q 2015
4.6
2.0
0.5
-1.1 -0.4
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1Q 14 2Q 14 3Q 14 4Q 14 1Q 15
Ppt contribution
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Real GDP (Annual change, %)
Share, %
(2014)
2014 2015
1Q 4Q Year 1Q
Domestic demand (excluding stocks) 91.5 7.6 5.7 5.9 7.9
Private Sector 68.5 8.9 8.3 7.9 9.6
Consumption 51.8 7.0 7.6 7.0 8.8
Investment 16.6 14.9 11.1 11.0 11.7
Public Sector 23.0 3.6 0.6 0.4 2.5
Consumption 13.6 12.2 2.5 4.4 4.1
Investment 9.5 -6.3 -1.9 -4.7 0.5
Net exports of goods and services 9.3 8.2 -4.0 12.8 -10.2
Exports 76.1 7.9 1.9 5.1 -0.6
Imports 66.8 7.8 2.6 4.2 1.0 Change in stocks (RM billion) -0.8 -1.6 -2.7 -8.5 -2.5
GDP (y-o-y) 100.0 6.3 5.7 6.0 5.6 GDP (q-o-q growth, seasonally adjusted) - 1.4 1.8 - 1.2
Public investment Public consumption
Private investment Private consumption
Net exports Change in stocks
4
Private sector remains the anchor of growth
GDP growth: 6.5% 6.3% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6%
5
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia; Ministry of Human Resources
Stronger pace of private consumption
Annual change (%)
Private consumption expanded at a stronger pace of 8.8%
Spending remained supported by stable employment conditions
Unemployment Rate and Employment
Unemployment rate (% of labour force)
Persons (million)
7.6
8.8
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
1Q 12 3Q 12 1Q 13 3Q 13 1Q 14 3Q 14 1Q 15
Real Private Consumption Growth
13.7 13.7
2.8
3.1
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1Q 12 4Q 12 3Q 13 2Q 14 1Q 15
Employment (RHS)
Unemployment rate
Annual change (%)
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
8
Private investment advanced by 11.7%
Real Private Investment Growth
6
11.1 11.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1Q 12 4Q 12 3Q 13 2Q 14 1Q 15
Private investment driven by:
• Capital spending in the export-oriented manufacturing industries and the services sector
• On-going multi-year investment projects
Higher current account surplus in 1Q15
7
Trade balance remained sizeable and current account surplus improved
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
3Q 12 1Q 13 3Q 13 1Q 14 3Q 14 1Q15
Goods Services Primary income Secondary income CAB % of GNI
RM bn % of GNI
Current account balance (RHS)
Trade balance remained sizeable
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
% yoy 1Q14 4Q14 2014 1Q15
Exports 10.7 0.5 6.4 -2.5
Imports 5.5 4.6 5.3 0.2
21.3
183.2
175.0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1Q 13 3Q 13 1Q 14 3Q 14 1Q 15 0
50
100
150
200
Imports
Exports
RM bn RM bn
Trade balance (RHS)
Ample reserves to meet external obligations while external debt affected by valuation effect
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 As at 30 Apr
USD bn Net International Reserves
Net International Reserves Retained import cover (RHS) Reserves/ST ext debt (RHS)
30 Apr. 2015: USD105.8 bn
1997: USD21.7 bn
Times
Reserves position remained at about five-times the level during Asian Financial Crisis
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q 2015
Offshore borrowing (Previous Definition) Non-resident holdings of domestic debt securities Other debt liabilities* Total External Debt, USD equivalent (RHS)
434.3 537.5
602.1
747.5 768.1
RM bn Total external debt
RM768.1 bn, 65.9% of GDP USD bn
211.8 205.1
In 1Q 2015, higher external debt in ringgit terms due to valuation effect
*Include trade credits, SDR allocation and miscellaneous
696.6
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia, Department of Statistics, Malaysia
8
9
Growth supported by the major economic sectors
1 Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties component
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Real GDP (Annual change, %)
Share, %
(2014)
2014 2015
1Q 4Q Year 1Q
Services 53.5 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4
Manufacturing 23.0 7.0 5.4 6.2 5.6
Mining 9.0 -0.1 9.5 3.3 9.6
Agriculture 9.2 2.6 -3.7 2.1 -4.7
Construction 4.3 19.3 8.8 11.8 9.7
GDP 100.01 6.3 5.7 6.0 5.6
• Services: Expansion in all sub-sectors, particularly in consumption-related sub-sectors
• Manufacturing: Strong production in the E&E cluster
• Construction: Supported by non-residential and residential subsectors
• Mining: Strong growth amid higher crude oil production
• Agriculture: Contraction due to lower palm oil output
10
Category Weight 4Q ‘14 1Q ‘15
Annual growth, %
Headline inflation 100.0 2.8 0.7
Food and non-alcoholic beverages 30.3 2.7 2.5
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels
22.6 3.4 2.1
Transport 14.9 4.8 -7.6
Others 32.2 1.5 1.6 -1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1Q 1
2
2Q 1
2
3Q 1
2
4Q 1
2
1Q 1
3
2Q 1
3
3Q 1
3
4Q 1
3
1Q 1
4
2Q 1
4
3Q 1
4
4Q 1
4
1Q 1
5 Food & non-alcoholic beverages Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels Transport Others
Contribution to Inflation Annual growth, %
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Others include alcoholic beverages and tobacco; restaurants & hotels; recreation services & culture; education; health; furnishings, household equipment & routine household maintenance; communication; clothing and footwear; and miscellaneous goods and services.
• The decline in inflation was due mainly to the transport category following the downward revisions to domestic fuel prices
Headline inflation was lower at 0.7% in 1Q
11
• The Malaysian economy is expected to remain on a steady growth path with domestic demand remaining as the key driver of growth
• Inflation is expected to trend higher in 2015 following the implementation of GST. Underlying inflation is expected to remain contained
• The stance of monetary policy remains supportive of economic activity
• Risks to destabilising financial imbalances are contained
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan-
09
Apr
-09
Jul-0
9 O
ct-0
9 Ja
n-10
A
pr-1
0 Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Jan-
11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1 O
ct-1
1 Ja
n-12
A
pr-1
2 Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr
-13
Jul-1
3 O
ct-1
3 Ja
n-14
A
pr-1
4 Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Jan-
15
Apr
-15
% Overnight Policy Rate
OPR maintained at 3.25% amid steady growth prospects and contained underlying inflation
3.25
Ringgit movements driven by both domestic and external factors
Note: +ve corresponds to ringgit appreciation
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
MYR performance against selected currencies
• Regional currencies continued to face volatility during the first quarter:
‒ Uncertainty surrounding global monetary conditions
‒ Concerns on the global economic outlook
• The ringgit also faced adjustments due to ongoing concerns on impact of low global crude oil prices
• The ringgit, however, has appreciated in April following some recovery and stabilisation in the global crude oil prices
12
-1.0
1.2
5.9
-2.0
-6.8 -4.2
-5.3
-6.0
-5.9
-6.1 -1.0
-7.0
-7.0
-9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9
GBP
AUD
EUR
SGD
TWD
KRW
JPY
USD
CNY
PHP
IDR
INR
THB
1 Apr- 13 May 2015 1Q
% change
13
Financing remained supportive of economic activity Relatively stable total loans growth amidst continued strong growth in SME loans …
Net Financing1 and Outstanding Banking System Loans Growth
1Outstanding loans of the banking system and PDS outstanding
*Excludes issuances by Cagamas
Gross Financing through the Banking System and Capital Market Annual
change (%) RM billion
4
8
12
16
20
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
243 247 256
300 282 281
302 310
282
100
150
200
250
300
350
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
Loans Disbursed Gross PDS Issued* Equity
… with sustained gross financing to the private sector
Total loan growth: 9.2%
Net financing growth: 8.3%
SME loan growth: 17.2%
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
14
Domestic financial stability continued to be preserved
• Financial intermediation continued to be supported by: – Sound financial institutions; – Orderly conditions in financial
markets; and – Ample liquidity
• Banks and insurers to remain
resilient under stress scenarios • Public confidence in the financial
system remained intact
• Banking system liquidity remained ample
Banking sector 4Q 14 1Q 15
Common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio (%) 13.3 12.5
Tier 1 capital ratio (%) 14.0 13.2
Total capital ratio (%) 15.9 15.2
Capital buffer (RM bn) 107 99
Net impaired loans ratio (%) 1.2 1.2
ROE (annualised) 15.2 12.4
Liquidity buffer (<1 mth) (% of deposits) 15.8 16.0
Insurance/Takaful sector 4Q 14 1Q 15
Capital adequacy ratio (%) - Insurance 252.1 246.5
Capital adequacy ratio (%) - Takaful 189.6 187.5
Capital buffer (RM bn) 32.9 33.1
Profit YTD (RM bn) 16.9 6.2
Household debt expansion continued to moderate
15
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
• Household debt grew by 9.2%
• Aggregate financial assets remained above 2 times of household debt
• Risk of delinquency remains low in near term
– Continued income growth and favourable employment conditions
– Prudent debt servicing ratios (DSR) associated with new household debt
– Sustained debt servicing capacity
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
Household: LIA 1-<3 months ratio Household: Impaired loans
Banking System: Impaired Loans and Loans-in-arrears (LIA) Ratios of Households
1.5
%
1.2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0
4
8
12
16
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Financial liabilities Financial assets HH debt growth (RHS) Financial assets growth (RHS)
Household Sector: Debt and financial RM bn Annual growth
(%)
6.6
2,070
9.2
Sustained debt servicing capacity amid improved leverage position of businesses
16
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
Business: Impaired loans Business: LIA-1-<3 months ratio 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% Banking system: Impaired loan and loans-in-arrears (LIA) ratios of Businesses
2.5
0.3
• Growth in domestic borrowings (loans, private debt securities and sukuk) by businesses moderated to 7.4% (Dec 2014: +8.5%)
• Quality of banking sector credit
exposure to businesses remained healthy
– Low impairment and arrears – Supported by sustained financial
performance and strong financial buffers of businesses
41.5%
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Debt-to-equity ratio Interest coverage ratio (RHS) Current ratio (RHS)
2011 2012 2013 2014
Business sector: Leverage and debt servicing capacity % times
• The global economy to improve although at a moderate pace − Pace of recovery of the advanced economies to remain modest and uneven
− While growth in the regional economies is slower, it will continue to remain an important growth center in the global economy
− Downsides risks remain, with the international financial markets affected by shifts in global liquidity and investor sentiments.
• Domestic demand to remain as the key driver of growth of Malaysian economy − Private consumption is expected to be affected by the introduction of GST, but will continue
to be supported by the steady rise in income and employment
− Investment activity to be led by capital spending in export-oriented industries, services sector and infrastructure projects
− The recovery in global growth, although moderate, will provide support to manufactured exports
Looking ahead, the Malaysian economy is expected to remain on a steady growth path
17
Announcement on Rebase of Malaysia’s GDP
to Base Year 2010
18
19
Malaysia’s GDP rebased to the 2010 base year
1. GDP rebasing is a planned periodic exercise and is in line with international best practices
2. Rebasing of Malaysia’s GDP ensures the continued relevance and improves the quality of GDP estimates − Reflects latest structure of the Malaysian economy
− Adopts international best practices in statistical compilation
− Incorporates latest comprehensive surveys, censuses and data sources
3. The rebasing exercise has minimal implications on Malaysia’s economic profile − Modest increase in nominal GDP
− Minimal changes to the structure and underlying drivers of growth in the economy
− Unchanged GDP growth and underlying momentum
52.5
17.5 13.2
9.8 8.0
51.8
16.6 13.6
9.5 9.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Priv
ate
cons
umpt
ion
Priv
ate
inve
stm
ent
Pub
lic
cons
umpt
ion
Pub
lic
inve
stm
ent
Net
exp
orts
2005 base 2010 base
% 55.3
24.6
6.9 7.9
3.9
53.5
23.0
9.2 9.0
4.3
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Ser
vice
s
Man
ufac
turin
g
Agr
icul
ture
Min
ing
Con
stru
ctio
n
2005 base 2010 base
%
20
Structure of the economy broadly unchanged
Share of real GDP (by economic activity) in 2014 Share of real GDP (by expenditure) in 2014
Services and manufacturing remain the largest sectors
Private sector domestic demand remains the key driver of growth
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
21
Nominal and real GDP growth relatively unchanged
Real GDP growth Nominal GDP growth
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Underlying growth momentum of the economy remains relatively the same
5.2
5.6
4.7
6.0
5.3
5.5
4.7
6.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014
Old base New base Yoy, %
11.0
6.4
4.8
8.4
11.0
6.5
4.9
8.6
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014
Old base New base Yoy, %
Questions
