Northern Ireland Economic and Labour Market Statistics & Sources

Central Statistics Office Business Statistics Seminar

26th February 2008

Dr. James GillanDepartment of Enterprise Trade and Investment

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland Business Statistics• Produced under National Statistics Protocols

– “The primary aim of National Statistics is to provide an accurate, up-to-date, comprehensive and meaningful picture of the economy and society to support the formulation and monitoring of economic and social policies by government at all levels”

• Primarily conducted by DETI (NISRA staff) • Collected under the Statistics of Trade and

Employment (NI) Order 1988 – Statutory– Confidential

• Statistics Advisory Committee consulted on Burden on Business obligations

Labour Force

Employee Jobs

Claimants

Redundancy

Earnings

Labour Market Macroeconomic

Northern Ireland Regional GVA

Employee jobs: QES

Employee jobs: Census

Index of Production

Index of ServicesAnnual Business Inquiry

Business Register

Business Activity

Research &Development

ManufacturingExports

Northern Ireland Economic Statistics

NI Regional Data

ServiceExports

Innovation

Index of Construction

Comparison of LFS and QNHS• LFS• Use ILO Definitions• HH survey with wave structure• Weighted to population

(age/sex/region)• 3,250 HH’s per qtr (0.5% of all)• Sampling error – higher

– Employment CV ~1.3%– Unemployment CV ~8.3%

• 16+ population (school age)• Calendar Qtrs, Rolling-Monthly

& Rolling Annual data• Quarterly from Spring ‘95

• QNHS• Use ILO Definitions• HH survey with wave structure• Weighted to population

(age/sex/region)• 39,000 HH’s per qtr (2.7%)• Sampling error – lower

– Employment CV ~0.4%– Unemployment CV ~2.4%

• 15+ population (school age)• Seasonal Quarter data

Trends in Employment (Index 1997=100)

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

RoINIUK

Sources Republic of Ireland: Central Statistics OfficeNorthern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment RoI figures relate to 15+, NI/UK figures to 16+ due to differences in school-leaving age.

-40%-20%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%

% Change in Employment 1997-2007 by Sector in Main Job

RoINIUK

Unemployment rates

0%

2%

4%

6%8%

10%

12%

14%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

RoINIUK

Sources Republic of Ireland: Central Statistics OfficeNorthern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment RoI figures relate to 15+, NI/UK figures to 16+ due to differences in school-leaving age.

Economic Activity rates

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

RoINIUK

Reason for Economic Inactivity, NI & RoI Proportion of working age population, 2005

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Student Family/Home Retired Sick/Disabled Other

NIRoIUK

Quarterly Employment Survey (QES)

• The Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) is a business survey that has been carried out in Northern Ireland since 1978 and provides estimates of the number of employee jobs in NI.

• QES counts the number of jobs rather than the number of persons with jobs. For example, a person holding both a full-time job and a part-time job, or someone with two part-time jobs, will be counted twice.

• The QES has a sample size of approximately 5,400 and covers all public sector bodies, all private sector firms with 25 or more employees and a sample of the remainder.

• The sample size has been chosen in order that estimates of total employee jobs should be accurate to within +/- 1% of the Northern Ireland Census of Employment total.

• No directly comparable Republic of Ireland employee jobs measure.

Public Sector jobs in NI and Ireland (Indexed): 1997 - 2007

Sources:

Republic of Ireland: Public Sector Quarterly Survey Central Statistics Office

Northern Ireland: Quarterly Employment Survey. Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment

UK: ONS

90

100

110

120

130

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

1997

= 1

00 NIROIUK

Proportion of all jobs in Public Sector in UK, NI and Ireland: 1997 - 2007

15

20

25

30

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

UKNIROI

Sources:

Republic of Ireland: Quarterly National Household Survey & Public Sector Quarterly Survey Central Statistics Office

Northern Ireland: Quarterly Employment Survey. Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment

UK: ONS

Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE)

• UK-wide sample survey that provides a wide range of information onhourly, weekly and annual earnings by gender, work patterns, age,industry and occupation inter alia

1% sample of N. Ireland PAYE, completed by employer only.2,500 businesses; C. 6,000 persons; response rate of 97%; CV 1.5% median gross f/t wages

• Replaced New Earnings Survey in 2004 to address weaknesses indesign:

Improved coverage (flows on/off PAYE)Results weighted to LFS employee population by age, sex, occupation, region Median values used in preference to mean to report earningsProvides estimates of basic and total paid hours worked. LFS for actual hrs.

Carried out by Office of National Statistics (ONS) in Great Britain, andby Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment in Northern Ireland

Comparability between NI and RoI earnings statistics

The National Employment Survey (NES) is currently the most comparable annual survey of earnings (c. 8,000 selected enterprises) to ASHE in the Republic of Ireland.

SIC/NACE and occupational coverage is broadly comparable.

Differences include sample design, grossing (QNHS SIC);

The NES 2006 reference period was at March 2006, while the ASHE reference period is always April of each year. While the NES is being conducted annually from 2006 onwards, an annual time-series does not currently exist.

The NES is moving to an October reference period which may further reduce comparability

Caution if using earlier surveys for comparisons

Median gross weekly earnings for full-time employees in the private sector in NI and UK, 1997-2007

200

300

400

50019

97

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

*

2004

2005

2006

*

2006

2007

£ pe

r wee

k

NI Private UK Private

* The introduction of methodological changes to improve the quality of ASHE data has resulted in discontinuities in trends.

Median gross weekly earnings (£) for full-time employees, 2006 UK and Ireland

394.8 400.0 402.5 409.0 412.5 413.7 416.8 419.1 428.1 440.6 443.6 444.8 449.8469.0 456.2

569.2

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600£ p

er w

eek

Northern Ireland Regional Accounts

• The first official estimates of GDP for NI were published in 1965.

• Official and consistent estimates covering all UK regions did not appear until 1977.

• More recently the production of the UK “Regional” Accounts has been the responsibility of the ONS.– Gross Value Added (-2006), by Industry to 2004 – Gross Disposable Household Income (-2005) and – Gross Fixed Capital Formation (-2001) – Individual Consumption Expenditure (-1999)

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=7359

• Public Expenditure information for NI and the UK published by HM Treasury http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/economic_data_and_tools/finance_spending_statistics/pes_publications/pespub_index.cfm

NI Economic Structure in Comparison to RoI 2004

-17.5 -15.0 -12.5 -10.0 -7.5 -5.0 -2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0 17.5

Agriculture

Production

Construction

Distribution, Hotels,Transport

Financial, BusinessServices

Public Adminiatrtion,Health , Education

Indu

stry

% Difference (NI-ROI)

DETI ABI and CSO Sectoral Inquiries• ABI• Meets Structural Business Reg• Coverage Part Agriculture;

Production, Construction, Services excluding Finance, No public sector (with exceptions)

• All 20+ Manufacturing• Sample by SIC Section and

Size band • 4,500 Reporting Units, c 1% • Turnover, GVA, Capex, LU

Employment (Sept.) and costs, Limited expenses breakdown Trade in services; e-commerce

• UK consistent, ONS modelling

• CIP, ASI, CBC….. • Meets Structural Business Reg• Similar coverage (Finance)• All 20+ Manufacturing• CIP total sample size 5,000 • ASI total sample size 25,000• Turnover, GVA, Capex, LU

Employment (Sept.) and costs, family business; ecommerce

• More detailed LU financial info• Includes exports and imports• Much more detailed business

expenditure information

NI vs ROI Manufacturing GVA per worker (2001-2006)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2001-2006

euros ROI NI

NI vs ROI Manufacturing GVA per worker (2001-2006)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2001-2006

euros

ROI

NI

DomesticROIDomesticNI

NI and ROI Trade (HMRC and NI Manufacturing Exports Survey)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

250019

96

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

(p)

£m

NI MSES

HMRC ROI toNIHMRC NI toROI

Exporting NI Services - RoI

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Expo

rt o

f Ser

vice

s - R

OI a

s %

of S

ervi

ce E

xpor

ts

Computer & RelatedActivities

Architectural & EngineeringActivities and Technical Testing &Analysis1Research & Development

Business & ManagementConsultancy Activities

Advertising

Market Research

Creative Entertainment

Comparison of Research and Development (R&D) in Northern Ireland (NI) Vs Republic of Ireland (ROI)

• R&D in Northern Ireland

• Annual surveys covering Business Expenditure on R&D (BERD), Higher Education Expenditure (HERD) and Government Expenditure (GERD).

• The Northern Ireland R&D survey has been carried out annually since 2001 and previously was conducted triennially in 1993,1996 and 1999.

• Most recent figures related to 2006 • R&D survey consists of all businesses

thought to be carrying out research and development work as defined in the “Frascati” manual and the latest NI survey consists of 794 firms.

R&D in Republic of Ireland

• Biennial surveys covering Business Expenditure on R&D (BERD), Higher Education Expenditure (HERD) and R&D in the public sector

• Most recent carried out for year 2005 but provisional estimates are available for 2006

• R&D survey consists of all businesses thought to be carrying out research and development work as defined in the “Frascati” manual and the latest ROI survey consists of 3,750 firms

Trends in Business Research and Development (BERD) (Index 1996=100) in cash terms

90

140

190

240

290

340

390

1996 1997 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

RoINI

Sources Republic of Ireland: Forfás Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment

Research and Development Expenditure

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Sweden

Finland

US

A

Germ

any

OE

CD

Total

France

UK

Netherlands

Norw

ay

Northern Ireland

Ireland

Italy

Spain

Portugal0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

NI UK

Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D Trend in R&D spend (BERD) as % of GDP, 2005 or latest available year as % of GVA 2001-2006

Source: OECD Factbook 2007: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics Northern Ireland figure, Total Expenditure on R&D

as % of GVA 2006

Source: ONS and DETI

BERD – Business Expenditure on R&D

Community Innovation SurveyThe UK and Republic of Ireland innovation surveys were completed as part of the EU Community Innovationset of surveys and use the Eurostat core questionnaire used by the EU 27. Results were collected within theUK by the Department of Trade and Industry and in the Republic of Ireland by Forfás.

Data on a variety of innovation activities was gathered obeying the strict international methodologicalguidelines as laid out in the OECD Oslo Manual, and core industrial sectors covered by the EU surveys werefirms with 10 or more employees in the following SIC/NACE sectors:

10-14 Mining and Quarrying;15-37 Manufacturing40-41 Electricity, Gas and Water51 Wholesale Trade60-64 Transport, Storage and Communication65-67 Financial Services72 Software Consultancy and Supply74.2 Engineering and Technical Consultancy74.3 Technical Testing and Analysis

Please note that the following additional sectors were covered in the UK survey, but have been excluded fromNI and UK results in the following slides to allow for direct comparability:

45 Construction50 Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles52 Retail trade55 Hotels and restaurants70 Real estate71 Rental of machinery and equipment73 R&DRemainder of SIC 74 (i.e. excl. 74.2 and 74.3) – Other Business Activities

Innovation active rates (per cent of businesses) for respondents to the Community Innovation Survey, 2002-04

0102030405060708090

100G

erm

any

Aust

riaLu

xem

bour

gIre

land

*Ic

elan

dD

enm

ark

Belg

ium

Swed

enEs

toni

aC

ypru

s NI

Finl

and

Uni

ted

King

dom

Portug

alG

roup

Ave

rage

Cze

ch R

epub

licN

orw

ay Italy

Gre

ece

Spai

nN

ethe

rland

sFr

ance

Lith

uani

aSl

oven

iaPo

land

Slov

akia

Hun

gary

Mal

taR

oman

iaLa

tvia

Bulg

aria

Per

cent

age

All10-49 employees50-249 employees250+ employees

* Ireland results are provisional.Source: Eurostat, DETI Statistics Research Branch

Innovation active rates (%) by business size and Industry and Services sectors, 2002-04

Source: Eurostat, DETI Statistics Research Branch

  Business Size   Industry Services

  10-49 50-249 250+All

businesses SIC C-E

SIC I, J, 51, 72,

74.2, 74.3

Ireland 47.2 65.3 75.1 52.2 60.9 43.8

NI 43.7 50.8 74.1 45.7 47.4 44.2

United Kingdom 39.9 52.6 62.5 43.0 44.4 41.8

Conclusions• NI economic and labour market statistics provision compares

favourably against UK regions– No regional prices, limited domestic consumption statistics– Regional Accounts re-engineering

• Potential for greater NI-ROI comparability– Inherent difficulties in national vs devolved comparisons – Greater North-South dimension for existing series, metadata– Trade, productivity measures, business costs need development– Burden on business

• Allsopp Review• EU standards • SIC 2007 • The user view