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NOAA National Marine NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS) Fisheries Service’s (NMFS) Biological and Conference Biological and Conference Opinion on the Long-Term Opinion on the Long-Term Operations of the Central Operations of the Central Valley Project and State Valley Project and State Water Project Water Project National Research Council National Research Council Committee on Sustainable Water and Committee on Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the Environmental Management in the California Bay-Delta California Bay-Delta

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NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS) Biological and Conference Opinion on the Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project National Research Council Committee on Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the California Bay-Delta - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

NOAA National Marine NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)Biological and Conference Biological and Conference Opinion on the Long-Term Opinion on the Long-Term Operations of the Central Operations of the Central Valley Project and State Valley Project and State

Water Project Water Project

National Research Council National Research Council Committee on Sustainable Water and Committee on Sustainable Water and

Environmental Management in the Environmental Management in the California Bay-DeltaCalifornia Bay-Delta

January 25, 2010January 25, 2010

Page 2: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Status of SpeciesStatus of Species

ESU Status

Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon

Endangered (Jan 1994)

Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon

Threatened (Sep 1999)

Central Valley fall-run Chinook salmon

Candidate (Sep 1999)

Central Valley steelhead Threatened (Mar 1998)

Southern DPS green sturgeon

Threatened (Apr 2006)

Southern Resident killer whale

Endangered (Nov 2005)

Page 3: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Central Valley Salmon Central Valley Salmon Population Over TimePopulation Over Time

Page 4: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Salmon Population Salmon Population ViabilityViability

ABUNDANCE

POP GROWTH RATE

DIVERSITY SPATIALSTRUCTURE

HABITAT CAPACITY AND DIVERSITY

FreshwaterEstuarineMarine

Page 5: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Central Valley Spring Central Valley Spring ChinookChinook

ESU StructureESU Structure

Page 6: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Central Valley SteelheadCentral Valley SteelheadESU StructureESU Structure

Page 7: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Viability Criteria for Viability Criteria for PopulationsPopulations

Page 8: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Viability Criteria for Viability Criteria for ESUsESUs

At least two viable populations per At least two viable populations per diversity groupdiversity group

If possible, the populations should not If possible, the populations should not have highly correlated risks of have highly correlated risks of catastrophic disturbance catastrophic disturbance

Page 9: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Current Current

Status of Status of

CV CV SpringSpring--

Run Run

Chinook Chinook

salmonsalmon

Page 10: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Climate ChangeClimate Change

Page 11: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Effects of Water Projects on Effects of Water Projects on SalmonSalmon

Page 12: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Population AnatomyPopulation Anatomy

Historical fall-run habitat Current fall-run habitat

Page 13: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Institutional ChallengesInstitutional Challenges

Page 14: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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SummarySummary Central Valley Salmonid ESUs are threatened Central Valley Salmonid ESUs are threatened

with extinctionwith extinction Water project facilities and operations have Water project facilities and operations have

negative effects on fish habitat, with cascading negative effects on fish habitat, with cascading effects on spatial structure, diversity, effects on spatial structure, diversity, productivity, and abundance of populationsproductivity, and abundance of populations

Improving in-stream flows and curtailing Improving in-stream flows and curtailing exports is necessary to conserve salmon, but exports is necessary to conserve salmon, but will not be sufficient for recoverywill not be sufficient for recovery

An ecosystem perspective is needed to An ecosystem perspective is needed to understand how human activities impact understand how human activities impact salmonsalmon

Adaptive management is needed to reduce Adaptive management is needed to reduce risksrisks

Page 15: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Scope of today’s Scope of today’s presentationpresentation

Brief highlights of Opinion – not all topics Brief highlights of Opinion – not all topics presented due to time constraintspresented due to time constraints

Opinion itself is a summary document of Opinion itself is a summary document of over four years of analytic work between over four years of analytic work between 5 agencies5 agencies

Biological assessment, NMFS technical Biological assessment, NMFS technical memos, peer review reports are importantmemos, peer review reports are important

700+ scientific citations700+ scientific citations Administrative record is 150,000 pages - - Administrative record is 150,000 pages - -

documents full decision-making processdocuments full decision-making process

Page 16: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Approach to Biological Approach to Biological Opinion:Opinion:

ChallengesChallenges Complexity - geographic scopeComplexity - geographic scope Multi-species Multi-species State and federal project – combined operationsState and federal project – combined operations Number of dams and diversionsNumber of dams and diversions Economic importance of projectEconomic importance of project

Urban water supply, agricultural water supply, Urban water supply, agricultural water supply, commercial salmon fisherycommercial salmon fishery

Long-term proposed operations (21 years)Long-term proposed operations (21 years) Litigation historyLitigation history Current events (recession, drought, fishery Current events (recession, drought, fishery

closure)closure)

Page 17: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Approach to Biological Approach to Biological Opinion: ConstraintsOpinion: Constraints

Our task – Limited to analyzing the Federal Our task – Limited to analyzing the Federal action, as proposedaction, as proposed

Uncertainty in science; risk is balanced in Uncertainty in science; risk is balanced in favor of the speciesfavor of the species

Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) – Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) – Limited to actions within authority and Limited to actions within authority and

discretion of USBR and DWR discretion of USBR and DWR Minimum to avoid jeopardy; NOT a recovery Minimum to avoid jeopardy; NOT a recovery

planplan Must avoid jeopardy in short-term and long-termMust avoid jeopardy in short-term and long-term Not necessary to prove quantitativelyNot necessary to prove quantitatively

Page 18: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Consultation ProcessConsultation Process

Used a team of experienced federal biologists Used a team of experienced federal biologists and hydrologists.and hydrologists.

Adhered closely to legal requirements, agency Adhered closely to legal requirements, agency guidelines, and used the best available guidelines, and used the best available scientific and commercial informationscientific and commercial information

Maintained close and meaningful collaboration Maintained close and meaningful collaboration with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, CA with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, CA Department of Water Resources, U.S. Fish and Department of Water Resources, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and CA Department of Fish Wildlife Service, and CA Department of Fish and Gameand Game

Draft opinion peer reviewed by CALFED Draft opinion peer reviewed by CALFED Independent Science Panel and Center for Independent Science Panel and Center for Independent Experts (CIE)Independent Experts (CIE)

Page 19: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Scientific EvidenceScientific Evidence

Used best scientific and commercial Used best scientific and commercial informationinformation

Literature review - 700 citations Literature review - 700 citations Information from previous listing Information from previous listing

decisions, critical habitat rules, etc.decisions, critical habitat rules, etc. USBR’s Biological Assessment, USBR’s Biological Assessment,

including model outputsincluding model outputs Draft recovery planDraft recovery plan Monitoring reportsMonitoring reports

Page 20: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Consultation BackgroundConsultation Background NMFS OCAP biological opinions:NMFS OCAP biological opinions:

Feb. 14, 1992, limited to winter-run Chinook Feb. 14, 1992, limited to winter-run Chinook salmonsalmon

1993-2002, interim opinions issued due to 1993-2002, interim opinions issued due to changes in operations and new species changes in operations and new species listedlisted

October 22, 2004: In 2008, Federal court October 22, 2004: In 2008, Federal court invalidated that Opinion, and ordered that invalidated that Opinion, and ordered that NMFS prepare a new Opinion. NMFS prepare a new Opinion.

June 4, 2009: Six complaints filed to date.June 4, 2009: Six complaints filed to date. Close coordination with the USFWS Close coordination with the USFWS

throughout the OCAP consultation throughout the OCAP consultation processprocess

Page 21: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Peer Reviews of thePeer Reviews of theDraft Biological OpinionDraft Biological Opinion

CALFED Science Panel:CALFED Science Panel: James J. Anderson, James J. Anderson, University of

Washington & Columbia Basin Research Mike Deas, Watercourse Engineering,

Inc. Philip B. Duffy, Climate Central, Inc.;

University of California, Merced Daniel L. Erickson, Consultant Reg Reisenbichler, Retired--U.S.

Geological Survey (USGS) (USGS) Kenneth A. Rose, Louisiana State

University Peter E. Smith, Retired--USGS

CIE reviewers:CIE reviewers: Richard A.

Marston Ian A. Fleming E. Eric Knudsen

CALFED & CIE reviews supported NMFS overall CALFED & CIE reviews supported NMFS overall conclusionsconclusions

Page 22: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Peer Reviews of the Peer Reviews of the Draft Biological Opinion Draft Biological Opinion

(cont’d)(cont’d) Significant changes made in response Significant changes made in response

to peer review recommendations:to peer review recommendations: Editing for clarity and consistency Editing for clarity and consistency

between division analysesbetween division analyses Estimate ranges of loss from compilation Estimate ranges of loss from compilation

of existing studies, even when we did not of existing studies, even when we did not have complete data setshave complete data sets

Assessed risk based on weighting and key Assessed risk based on weighting and key lines of evidencelines of evidence

Plan for drought sequence – not a single Plan for drought sequence – not a single dry yeardry year

Page 23: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Analytical OverviewAnalytical Overview Evaluated each stressor by species, life Evaluated each stressor by species, life

stage, and locationstage, and location Risk and uncertainty incorporated Risk and uncertainty incorporated

throughoutthroughout Weighted evidence by certainty and Weighted evidence by certainty and

magnitude of effectmagnitude of effect Stated assumptions, reviewed model Stated assumptions, reviewed model

constraints and applicability, used rangesconstraints and applicability, used ranges Identified all direct and indirect effectsIdentified all direct and indirect effects

Considered variability in the Bay-Delta Considered variability in the Bay-Delta ecosystemecosystem

Summed for individual, population, Summed for individual, population, diversity group and species levels.diversity group and species levels.

Page 24: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Analytical ApproachAnalytical Approach Viable Salmonid PopulationsViable Salmonid Populations

ABUNDANCE

POP GROWTH RATE

DIVERSITY SPATIALSTRUCTURE

HABITAT CAPACITY AND DIVERSITY

FreshwaterEstuarineMarine

Page 25: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Analytical Approach Analytical Approach (cont’d)(cont’d)

Central Valley Technical Central Valley Technical Recovery Team products:Recovery Team products:Historical population Historical population structurestructure

Assessing viability of Central Assessing viability of Central Valley salmon and steelhead Valley salmon and steelhead populationspopulations

Life cycle approachLife cycle approach

Page 26: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Stressors on Listed SpeciesStressors on Listed Species Loss of habitat and degraded water Loss of habitat and degraded water

quality due to:quality due to: Non-Federal dams and diversionsNon-Federal dams and diversions Land use activitiesLand use activities

Invasive speciesInvasive species HatcheriesHatcheries Harvest activitiesHarvest activities Environmental variationsEnvironmental variations

Ocean conditionsOcean conditions Climate changeClimate change

Page 27: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Environmental BaselineEnvironmental Baseline

Page 28: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Effects OverviewEffects Overview Shasta Reservoir: Future operations, Shasta Reservoir: Future operations,

including climate change:including climate change: 5 to 65% mortality of winter-run Chinook 5 to 65% mortality of winter-run Chinook

salmon eggs and frysalmon eggs and fry Red Bluff Diversion Dam (RBDD):Red Bluff Diversion Dam (RBDD):

Delays adult passage of up to 15% of the Delays adult passage of up to 15% of the winter-run and up to 70% of the spring-run winter-run and up to 70% of the spring-run that spawn above the RBDDthat spawn above the RBDD

Blocks up to 35% of green sturgeon from its Blocks up to 35% of green sturgeon from its only known spawning groundonly known spawning ground

American River:American River: Mean water temperatures > 65°F, results in Mean water temperatures > 65°F, results in

increased incidence of disease in juvenile increased incidence of disease in juvenile steelheadsteelhead

~75% of time in June, 100% in July and ~75% of time in June, 100% in July and August, >95% in SeptemberAugust, >95% in September

Page 29: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Effects Overview (cont’d)Effects Overview (cont’d) Juvenile survival at export facilities: Juvenile survival at export facilities:

About 1 in 3 survive through the Federal About 1 in 3 survive through the Federal facilitiesfacilities

About 1 in 6 survive through the State About 1 in 6 survive through the State facilitiesfacilities

Overall mortality in the interior Delta: Overall mortality in the interior Delta: 35-90% of those that enter interior Delta35-90% of those that enter interior Delta 5-20% of each winter-run Chinook salmon 5-20% of each winter-run Chinook salmon

populationpopulation Juvenile San Joaquin River steelhead: Juvenile San Joaquin River steelhead:

90-99% mortality from project and non-project 90-99% mortality from project and non-project stressorsstressors

Reduction in approximately 13-15% fall- and Reduction in approximately 13-15% fall- and late fall-run Chinook salmon, which is killer late fall-run Chinook salmon, which is killer whale prey; effects from hatchery management.whale prey; effects from hatchery management.

Page 30: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Findings of the Biological Findings of the Biological OpinionOpinion

OCAP would likely jeopardize: OCAP would likely jeopardize: Sacramento winter-run Chinook salmon Sacramento winter-run Chinook salmon Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon Central Valley steelheadCentral Valley steelhead Southern DPS of North American green Southern DPS of North American green

sturgeonsturgeon Southern Resident killer whalesSouthern Resident killer whales

Destruction or adverse modification of Destruction or adverse modification of designated and proposed critical habitat designated and proposed critical habitat

Central California Coast steelhead – not likely to Central California Coast steelhead – not likely to adversely affect this species or its critical adversely affect this species or its critical habitathabitat

Page 31: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Reasonable and Prudent Alternative Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) Overview(RPA) Overview

Identified actions to alleviate Identified actions to alleviate major stressors for each species major stressors for each species and summed these for short-and summed these for short-term and long-termterm and long-term

Included appropriate flexibilities Included appropriate flexibilities in RPA where possiblein RPA where possible

Monitoring, reporting, research, Monitoring, reporting, research, adaptive managementadaptive management

Page 32: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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RPA Overview (cont’d)RPA Overview (cont’d) Scope – minimum to avoid jeopardyScope – minimum to avoid jeopardy

Over 50 individual actions grouped by Over 50 individual actions grouped by division, plus a fish passage program division, plus a fish passage program

Themes: Themes: Water quantity and qualityWater quantity and quality gravel augmentationgravel augmentation improve passageimprove passage decrease entrainmentdecrease entrainment engineered solutionsengineered solutions

Page 33: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Key Elements of the RPAKey Elements of the RPA Clear Creek below Whiskeytown Dam - Clear Creek below Whiskeytown Dam -

increased flows and reduced temperatures increased flows and reduced temperatures Shasta Reservoir and the Upper Shasta Reservoir and the Upper

Sacramento River - new temperature Sacramento River - new temperature management programmanagement program

Shasta Dam - long-term passage Shasta Dam - long-term passage prescriptions to allow re-introduction of prescriptions to allow re-introduction of listed salmonlisted salmon

Red Bluff Diversion Dam - interim gate Red Bluff Diversion Dam - interim gate operations until 2012, then gates up all operations until 2012, then gates up all year.year.

Lower Sacramento River basin and Delta - Lower Sacramento River basin and Delta - improved juvenile rearing habitat improved juvenile rearing habitat

Page 34: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Key Elements of the RPA Key Elements of the RPA (cont’d)(cont’d)

American River - New flow and American River - New flow and temperature plan; fish passage at Folsom temperature plan; fish passage at Folsom Dam Dam Hatchery Genetics Management Plan for Hatchery Genetics Management Plan for

Nimbus Hatchery for steelhead and fall-Nimbus Hatchery for steelhead and fall-run Chinook salmon.run Chinook salmon.

Stanislaus River – new flow schedule, Stanislaus River – new flow schedule, temperature criteria, and habitat temperature criteria, and habitat improvementsimprovements

Delta Cross Channel Gates - Additional Delta Cross Channel Gates - Additional gate closures during key times when listed gate closures during key times when listed fish are likely to be migrating through the fish are likely to be migrating through the areaarea

Page 35: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Key Elements of the RPA Key Elements of the RPA (cont’d)(cont’d)

Old and Middle Rivers - Flows will be Old and Middle Rivers - Flows will be modified to reduce the number of modified to reduce the number of juveniles exposed to the Delta pumps, juveniles exposed to the Delta pumps, and fish salvage improvements to and fish salvage improvements to reduce mortalityreduce mortality

San Joaquin Basin - Increased flows and San Joaquin Basin - Increased flows and pumping curtailments. pumping curtailments.

Studies – 6 year study of acoustic Studies – 6 year study of acoustic tagged fish in the San Joaquin Basin to tagged fish in the San Joaquin Basin to evaluate the effectiveness of the RPA evaluate the effectiveness of the RPA and refine it over the life-time of the and refine it over the life-time of the project. project.

Page 36: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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RPA FlexibilitiesRPA Flexibilities

Real-time operationsReal-time operations Phased-in implementationPhased-in implementation Performance-based approachesPerformance-based approaches Take limits based on annual juvenile Take limits based on annual juvenile

production estimatesproduction estimates Actions tiered to water year Actions tiered to water year

type/drought exceptiontype/drought exception Research and adaptive managementResearch and adaptive management

Page 37: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Other Alternative RPA Other Alternative RPA Actions Actions

Evaluated during consultation and rejected Evaluated during consultation and rejected (ineffective, critical habitat concerns, smelt (ineffective, critical habitat concerns, smelt concerns, predation issues, etc):concerns, predation issues, etc): Trap and haul of San Joaquin steelheadTrap and haul of San Joaquin steelhead New screens at the existing pumpsNew screens at the existing pumps New screens in the Delta (e.g., Georgiana New screens in the Delta (e.g., Georgiana

Slough)Slough) Permanent operable barriers at Head of Old Permanent operable barriers at Head of Old

RiverRiver Non-physical barrier alone at the Head of Old Non-physical barrier alone at the Head of Old

River (without increased flows and export River (without increased flows and export curtailments)curtailments)

Page 38: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Alternatives (continued)Alternatives (continued)Alternatives to water supply evaluated Alternatives to water supply evaluated

and included in RPA:and included in RPA: Gravel augmentationGravel augmentation Rearing habitat restorationRearing habitat restoration Engineered solutions, including:Engineered solutions, including:

New fish screen at Red BluffNew fish screen at Red Bluff New temperature infrastructure at New temperature infrastructure at

Whiskeytown and Folsom DamsWhiskeytown and Folsom Dams Retrofits to existing salvage facilities Retrofits to existing salvage facilities Non-physical barrier (bubble curtain)Non-physical barrier (bubble curtain)

Page 39: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

Sacramento Sacramento River DivisionRiver Division

Bruce OppenheimBruce Oppenheim

Page 40: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Shasta Dam and ReservoirShasta Dam and Reservoir

Page 41: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Carry over Storage in Carry over Storage in ShastaShasta

Long-term Average Annual and End of September Storage Differences for Shasta Storage, Spring

Creek Tunnel Flow, and Keswick Release

Difference in Thousands of Acre-feet [TAF]

Study 7.0 -

Study 6.0

Study 7.1 -

Study 7.0

Study 8.0 -

Study 7.0

Study 8.0 -

Study 7.1

Shasta End-of-September Storage

26 -121 -121 0

Annual Keswick Release 1 8 6 -2

Annual Spring Creek Powerplant Flows

3 -1 -2 -2

Study 6.0 = 2004 operations Study 7.1 = Study 6.0 = 2004 operations Study 7.1 = near future operationsnear future operationsStudy 7.0 =current operationsStudy 7.0 =current operations Study 8.0 = Study 8.0 = future operationsfuture operations

Page 42: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Calsim and Sacramento River Water Quality Calsim and Sacramento River Water Quality Modeling results for temperature exceedances at Modeling results for temperature exceedances at

Balls Ferry under future conditions Study 8.0Balls Ferry under future conditions Study 8.0

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

1/1 1/22 2/12 3/5 3/26 4/16 5/7 5/28 6/18 7/9 7/30 8/20 9/10 10/1 10/22 11/12 12/3 12/24

Mean Daily Temperature (F)

Avg

Max

5%

10%

25%

50%

75%

90%

95%

Min

Date (month/day)

Page 43: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Egg and Fry Mortality by Water Year Type at Balls Ferry

Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Average Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical

40-30-30 Water Year Type

Perc

en

t M

ort

ali

ty

Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA NAStudy 6.0(2004)

Study 7.0(current)

Study 7.1(near future)

Study 8.0(future)

Water Year Type

Perc

en

t M

ort

ality

Page 44: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Temperature effects with Temperature effects with Climate ChangeClimate Change

Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Average Wet AboveNormal

Below Normal Dry Critical

40-30-30 Water Year Type

Per

cen

t M

ort

alit

y

Study 9.0 Base Study 9.1 Base w ith 1' Sea Level Rise

Study 9.4 Dryer, Less Warming Study 9.2 Wetter, Less Warming

Study 9.5 Drier, More Warming Study 9.3 Wetter, More Warming

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Average Wet AboveNormal

Below Normal Dry Critical

Study 9.0 Base Study 9.1 Base w ith 1' Sea Level Rise

Study 9.4 Dryer, Less Warming Study 9.2 Wetter, Less Warming

Study 9.5 Drier, More Warming Study 9.3 Wetter, More Warming

Page 45: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Sacramento River Spring-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Average Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical

40-30-30 Water Year Type

Per

cen

t M

ort

alit

y

Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA NA

Perc

en

t M

ort

ality

Water Year Type

Study 6.0(2004)

Study 7.0(current)

Study 7.1(near future)

Study 8.0(future)

Page 46: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Sacramento River Spring-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Average Wet AboveNormal

Below Normal Dry Critical

40-30-30 Water Year Type

Per

cen

t M

ort

alit

y

Study 9.0 Base Study 9.1 Base w ith 1' Sea Level Rise

Study 9.4 Dryer, Less Warming Study 9.2 Wetter, Less Warming

Study 9.5 Drier, More Warming Study 9.3 Wetter, More Warming

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Average Wet AboveNormal

Below Normal Dry Critical

Study 9.0 Base Study 9.1 Base w ith 1' Sea Level Rise

Study 9.4 Dryer, Less Warming Study 9.2 Wetter, Less Warming

Study 9.5 Drier, More Warming Study 9.3 Wetter, More Warming

Water Year Type

Perc

en

t M

ort

ality

Page 47: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Summary of Significant Effects Summary of Significant Effects on the Mainstem Sacramento on the Mainstem Sacramento

RiverRiver Long-term average loss of 121 TAF September Long-term average loss of 121 TAF September

carry-over storage (including effects of climate carry-over storage (including effects of climate change) will:change) will: Eliminate spring-run spawning in the mainstemEliminate spring-run spawning in the mainstem Reduce winter-run spawning habitat in the mainstemReduce winter-run spawning habitat in the mainstem Increase egg mortality substantially in consideration Increase egg mortality substantially in consideration

of climate change [of climate change [i.ei.e., Critical years increases to 5 ., Critical years increases to 5 to 65% for winter-run, 40 to 95% for spring-run (Sac. to 65% for winter-run, 40 to 95% for spring-run (Sac. R mainstem only), and 4% for steelhead (based on R mainstem only), and 4% for steelhead (based on late fall-run Chinook salmon as a surrogate)]. late fall-run Chinook salmon as a surrogate)].

Result in shorter emigration period and lower Result in shorter emigration period and lower survival for juvenile salmonidssurvival for juvenile salmonids

Page 48: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Red Bluff Diversion Dam Red Bluff Diversion Dam (RBDD) (RBDD)

Gates in Open Position Looking Gates in Open Position Looking UpstreamUpstream

Page 49: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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RBDD Adult Fish Passage

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Perc

ent o

f Run

Pre

sent

Winter-run Spring-run Steelhead

Green Sturgeon Fall-run Late -fall

4 months closed

2 months closed

Page 50: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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RBDD Juvenile RunTiming

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Per

cent

Pre

sent

winter-run spring-run steelhead green sturgeon

4 Months Closed

RBDD Juvenile RunTiming

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Per

cent

Pre

sent

winter-run spring-run steelhead green sturgeon

4 Months Closed

Page 51: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Effect of Operations on Effect of Operations on Winter-Run Chinook Winter-Run Chinook

Salmon Salmon

Page 52: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Summary of the Main Summary of the Main Effects from Operating Effects from Operating

RBDDRBDD Adult upstream migration:Adult upstream migration:

Delays passage of up to 15% of the winter-run and Delays passage of up to 15% of the winter-run and up to 70% of the spring-runup to 70% of the spring-run

Blocks up to 35% of green sturgeon from its main Blocks up to 35% of green sturgeon from its main spawning ground.spawning ground.

Juvenile downstream migration:Juvenile downstream migration: Higher predation rates on juvenile winter-run, Higher predation rates on juvenile winter-run,

steelhead, and green sturgeon as they pass steelhead, and green sturgeon as they pass through Lake Red Bluff and the diversion gates through Lake Red Bluff and the diversion gates ((i.ei.e., 45% to 50% during May). ., 45% to 50% during May).

Critical habitat: Adverse modification of 6 Critical habitat: Adverse modification of 6 stream miles from inundation behind RBDD.stream miles from inundation behind RBDD.

Page 53: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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RPA Actions to Address Key RPA Actions to Address Key Sacramento River Division Sacramento River Division

EffectsEffects Clear Creek: New temperature curtain in Clear Creek: New temperature curtain in

WhiskeytownWhiskeytown Reduce temperatures in OctoberReduce temperatures in October

Shasta Reservoir: Higher Shasta storage Shasta Reservoir: Higher Shasta storage required in Sept. & Aprilrequired in Sept. & April

Shasta Dam: New temperature management Shasta Dam: New temperature management programprogram

Upper Sacramento River: Upper Sacramento River: Long-term passage prescriptions at Shasta Dam to Long-term passage prescriptions at Shasta Dam to

allow re-introduction of listed salmonallow re-introduction of listed salmon RBDD gates up, year round by 2012RBDD gates up, year round by 2012

Lower Sacramento River and Delta: Restore Lower Sacramento River and Delta: Restore juvenile rearing habitatjuvenile rearing habitat

Page 54: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

American River American River DivisionDivision

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Lower American River Lower American River (LAR)(LAR)

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Jun

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)

Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA

65.0

Jul

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)

Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA

65.0

a

b

June

July

Exposure to daily mean water temps. above 65°F are associated with anal vent inflammation in juvenile steelhead in the LAR

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Aug

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)

Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA

65.0

a

Sep

60.0

62.0

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)

Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA

65.0

b

August

September

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““VSP” = Viable Salmonid PopulationVSP” = Viable Salmonid Population

Flow fluctuations

Redd scour

Nimbus hatchery

Warm water temps

Entrainment

Angling impacts

Low flows

Folsom and Nimbus Dams

Predation

Project Stressors Baseline Stressors

Loss of natural river function

Page 59: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Summary of Main Effects Summary of Main Effects on the Lower American on the Lower American

RiverRiver Mean water temperatures above Mean water temperatures above

65°F ~75% in June, 100% in July 65°F ~75% in June, 100% in July and August, >95% in September, and August, >95% in September, resulting in increased incidence of resulting in increased incidence of disease in juvenile steelhead.disease in juvenile steelhead.

Reduced genetic diversity from Reduced genetic diversity from hatchery management program.hatchery management program.

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RPA Actions to Address Key RPA Actions to Address Key American River Division American River Division

EffectsEffects New flow and temperature plan; fish New flow and temperature plan; fish

passage at Folsom Dam passage at Folsom Dam Structural modifications for Structural modifications for

Improved water temperature control Improved water temperature control device at Folsom Damdevice at Folsom Dam

Temperature control curtains at Lake Temperature control curtains at Lake NatomaNatoma

Temperature control at El Dorado Temperature control at El Dorado Irrigation District DiversionIrrigation District Diversion

Hatchery Genetics Management Plan Hatchery Genetics Management Plan for Nimbus Hatchery for steelhead for Nimbus Hatchery for steelhead and Fall-run Chinook salmon.and Fall-run Chinook salmon.

Page 61: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

Eastside DivisionEastside Division

New Melones and Stanislaus River New Melones and Stanislaus River operationsoperations

Rhonda ReedRhonda Reed

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62

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Stanislaus River – New Stanislaus River – New Melones DamMelones Dam

Listed Species: Listed Species: Central Valley Central Valley steelheadsteelhead

Southern Sierra Southern Sierra Nevada diversity Nevada diversity group group

Current population Current population numbers very low for numbers very low for all 4 populationsall 4 populations

Stanislaus Tuolumne

Merced

Page 64: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Summary of the Main Summary of the Main Effects on the Stanislaus Effects on the Stanislaus

RiverRiver TemperatureTemperature

Water temperatures too warm for CV steelhead, Water temperatures too warm for CV steelhead, 3-20% of time , especially May-Sept. 3-20% of time , especially May-Sept.

Jul

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Tem

pera

ture

(˚F

)

Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA

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Summary of the Main Summary of the Main Effects on the Stanislaus Effects on the Stanislaus

RiverRiver TemperatureTemperature FlowFlow

Instream flow requirements for CV Instream flow requirements for CV steelhead not addressedsteelhead not addressed

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Impaired Flow Pattern Impaired Flow Pattern Affects Habitat Affects Habitat

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1

CF

S

Unimpaired

Impaired

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67

Summary of the Main Summary of the Main Effects on the Stanislaus Effects on the Stanislaus

RiverRiver TemperatureTemperature FlowFlow Ongoing critical habitat degradation Ongoing critical habitat degradation

Channel incision cuts off rearing habitatChannel incision cuts off rearing habitat Spawning gravel washed outSpawning gravel washed out Channel encroachment.Channel encroachment.

Page 68: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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Modeled Monthly Temperature Exceedance Probability:July- Orange

Blossom Bridge

Daily Temperature

Variability

Jul

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Tem

per

atu

re (

˚F)

Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA

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Stanislaus River Minimum Stanislaus River Minimum Steelhead FlowsSteelhead Flows

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Above Normal Releases vs Above Normal Releases vs Minimum Flow ScheduleMinimum Flow Schedule

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Channel DemobilizationChannel Demobilization

Kondolf, et al. 2001

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RPA Actions to Address Key RPA Actions to Address Key

East Side Division EffectsEast Side Division Effects Establish Stanislaus Operations GroupEstablish Stanislaus Operations Group Set operational temperature criteria Set operational temperature criteria Set minimum flows for steelhead survivalSet minimum flows for steelhead survival Channel maintaining flows in wet yearsChannel maintaining flows in wet years Habitat improvements for spawning and Habitat improvements for spawning and

rearing habitat, building on Central rearing habitat, building on Central Valley Project Improvement Act Valley Project Improvement Act authoritiesauthorities

Assess fish passage past New Melones Assess fish passage past New Melones DamDam

Page 73: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

Delta DivisionDelta Division

Jeff StuartJeff Stuart

Page 74: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

Key Elements in Delta Key Elements in Delta

DivisionDivision Climate ChangeClimate ChangeDCC GatesDCC GatesProposed Export ChangesProposed Export ChangesDirect Entrainment at Project Direct Entrainment at Project FacilitiesFacilitiesIndirect Mortality within DeltaIndirect Mortality within DeltaSan Joaquin River Inflow to San Joaquin River Inflow to DeltaDelta

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Temporal Occurrence of Temporal Occurrence of Species in DeltaSpecies in Delta

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Climate Change Impacts to Delta:Climate Change Impacts to Delta:

Fall and winter seasons have greatest Fall and winter seasons have greatest sensitivity to climate change according to sensitivity to climate change according to OCAP modeling.OCAP modeling.

Drier climates: Drier climates: In wet years: > risk of pumping entrainment in In wet years: > risk of pumping entrainment in

winter compared to current climate.winter compared to current climate. In dry years: minimal change in OMR flows In dry years: minimal change in OMR flows

during winter and spring.during winter and spring.

Wetter climates: Wetter climates: In wet years: < pumping entrainment risk in In wet years: < pumping entrainment risk in

winter, more positive OMR flowswinter, more positive OMR flows In dry years: > risks in the winter , slightly In dry years: > risks in the winter , slightly

more negative OMR flowsmore negative OMR flows

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DCC Gate OperationsDCC Gate Operations

DCC Gates

Sacramento

River

N

S

E W

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DCC GatesDCC Gates Manmade channel (early 1950s) to enhance Manmade channel (early 1950s) to enhance

water quality for CVP exports at Tracywater quality for CVP exports at Tracy Can pass 6,000 cfs when gates are open, ≈ 20 to Can pass 6,000 cfs when gates are open, ≈ 20 to

25 percent of Sacramento River flow at Freeport 25 percent of Sacramento River flow at Freeport can move into the Mokelumne Rivercan move into the Mokelumne River

Listed salmonids are diverted into the channel Listed salmonids are diverted into the channel when the gates are open. Entrainment rate is when the gates are open. Entrainment rate is related to river flow, time of day, and tidal cycle.related to river flow, time of day, and tidal cycle.

Survival of these fish is substantially lower than Survival of these fish is substantially lower than those fish that remain in the Sacramento River .those fish that remain in the Sacramento River .

Early migrating salmon and steelhead (Nov – Jan) Early migrating salmon and steelhead (Nov – Jan) are at risk under current operations schedule.are at risk under current operations schedule.

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Timing of Juvenile winter-run passage at Knights Landing rotary screw trap sampling 1995-2006

(Low, White, and Chappell 2006)

Page 80: NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)

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RPA Overview for DCC RPA Overview for DCC GatesGates

Integrate current monitoring triggers with Integrate current monitoring triggers with new gate operations in December and new gate operations in December and January.January.

Close DCC gates from December 15 to Close DCC gates from December 15 to January 31.January 31.

Weekly evaluations of monitoring data by the Weekly evaluations of monitoring data by the Delta Operations for Salmonids and Sturgeon Delta Operations for Salmonids and Sturgeon technical team (DOSS).technical team (DOSS).

Flexibility of gate operations regarding water Flexibility of gate operations regarding water quality criteria and experimental studies.quality criteria and experimental studies.

Study alternative engineering solutions to Study alternative engineering solutions to control access to the Delta interiorcontrol access to the Delta interior

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Modeled Changes in Export Modeled Changes in Export LevelsLevels

CVP and SWP exports increase in both CVP and SWP exports increase in both near future (Study 7.1) and future near future (Study 7.1) and future conditions (Study 8.0) compared to the conditions (Study 8.0) compared to the current condition (Study 7.0).current condition (Study 7.0).

Significant increases in exports during the Significant increases in exports during the late fall and winter time frames over late fall and winter time frames over current operations.current operations.

SWP exports increase in April and May SWP exports increase in April and May due to decrease in “fish water” available due to decrease in “fish water” available for export curtailment.for export curtailment.

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Effects to Listed Effects to Listed SalmonidsSalmonids

Elevated exports result in an increased potential for Elevated exports result in an increased potential for entrainment at the export facilities, as well as entrainment at the export facilities, as well as migrational delays for fish entering the Delta interior, migrational delays for fish entering the Delta interior,

Increases in exports reflected in increased negative Increases in exports reflected in increased negative Old and Middle River flowsOld and Middle River flows

Diversion of listed fish into the interior of the Delta Diversion of listed fish into the interior of the Delta increases the risk of mortality (increases the risk of mortality (i.ei.e., predation) as well ., predation) as well as exposure to contaminants in the Delta interior. as exposure to contaminants in the Delta interior. Overall mortality in the interior Delta:Overall mortality in the interior Delta: 35-90% of those that enter the interior Delta35-90% of those that enter the interior Delta 5-20% of winter-run Chinook salmon population 5-20% of winter-run Chinook salmon population

entering the Deltaentering the Delta San Joaquin River Basin fish have an increased San Joaquin River Basin fish have an increased

vulnerability to entrainment with increased exports vulnerability to entrainment with increased exports levels. levels.

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SWP

CVP

Flow Patterns in the Delta

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Projected Old and Middle River Projected Old and Middle River FlowsFlows

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Particle Entrainment at the Export Particle Entrainment at the Export Facilities under different OMR Facilities under different OMR

flowsflows

~ 40%

USFWS 2008

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Initial Slope

SWP Loss vs. OMR flows

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RPA Overview for ExportsRPA Overview for Exports

Integrate current monitoring triggers with new Integrate current monitoring triggers with new export operations January through June.export operations January through June.

Limit OMR flows, no more negative than -5,000 Limit OMR flows, no more negative than -5,000 cfs January through June.cfs January through June.

Staged Reductions in exports when fish are Staged Reductions in exports when fish are present at the facilities, measured by OMR present at the facilities, measured by OMR flow levels.flow levels.

Weekly review of operations and fish salvage Weekly review of operations and fish salvage by the DOSS technical group.by the DOSS technical group.

Actions compatible with the FWS Delta smelt Actions compatible with the FWS Delta smelt actionsactions

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Direct Entrainment at Direct Entrainment at Project FacilitiesProject Facilities

Survival is low through the salvage Survival is low through the salvage facilities: facilities: • 1 out of 6 fish survive at the SWP1 out of 6 fish survive at the SWP• 1 out of 3 fish survive at the CVP1 out of 3 fish survive at the CVP

Screening EfficiencyScreening Efficiency Predation issuesPredation issues CHTR operations (Collection, CHTR operations (Collection,

Handling, Trucking and Release)Handling, Trucking and Release)

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Overall survival estimates Overall survival estimates of fish collection actionsof fish collection actions

Estimate of Survival for Screening Process at the SWP and CVP1

SWP Percent survival Running Percent Pre-screen Survival2 25 percent3 (75 percent loss) 25 Louver Efficiency 75 percent (25 percent loss) 18.75 CHTR Survival 98 percent (2 percent loss) 18.375 Post Release Survival (predation only)

90 percent (10 percent loss) 16.54

CVP4 Percent survival Running Percent

Pre-screen Survival5 85 percent (15 percent loss) 85 Louver Efficiency6 46.8 (53.2 percent loss) 39.78 CHTR Survival 98 percent (2 percent loss) 38.98 Post Release Survival (predation only)

90 percent (10 percent loss) 35.08

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RPA Overview for Direct RPA Overview for Direct Export EntrainmentExport Entrainment

Increase overall salvage efficiency to 75% Increase overall salvage efficiency to 75% for both facilitiesfor both facilities

Directed actions for both facilities include:Directed actions for both facilities include:• Improve screening efficiency/operationsImprove screening efficiency/operations• Reduce predation lossesReduce predation losses• Improve reporting methodologyImprove reporting methodology

Improve survival of salvaged fish releases Improve survival of salvaged fish releases • Release fish from mobile barges, multiple Release fish from mobile barges, multiple

release sites, or other methodsrelease sites, or other methods

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Indirect Mortality in Delta Indirect Mortality in Delta InteriorInterior

Assessed indirect mortality within delta Assessed indirect mortality within delta interior utilizing applicable studies and interior utilizing applicable studies and literature.literature.

Compared export and non-export Compared export and non-export related mortality within the interior related mortality within the interior delta utilizing DWR’s Delta Survival delta utilizing DWR’s Delta Survival model and CalSim II output from model and CalSim II output from Studies 7.0 (current operations), Studies 7.0 (current operations), 7.1 (near future operations), and 8.0 7.1 (near future operations), and 8.0 (future operations).(future operations).

Assessed recent survival studies Assessed recent survival studies utilizing acoustically tagged fish.utilizing acoustically tagged fish.

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Results from DWR Survival Results from DWR Survival ModelModel

Monthly export related mortality for Sacramento River Monthly export related mortality for Sacramento River fish ranged from <1% to 15% combining all studies and fish ranged from <1% to 15% combining all studies and water year types for the period between December and water year types for the period between December and June.June.

Monthly Indirect mortality (non-export) for Sacramento Monthly Indirect mortality (non-export) for Sacramento River fish ranged from 3% to 32% combining all studies River fish ranged from 3% to 32% combining all studies and water year types for the period between December and water year types for the period between December and June.and June.

Higher E/I ratios had higher mortality levels.Higher E/I ratios had higher mortality levels. Higher E/I ratios typically occurred in December and Higher E/I ratios typically occurred in December and

January in drier hydrological conditions.January in drier hydrological conditions. Monthly total population mortality for Sacramento River Monthly total population mortality for Sacramento River

basin fish migrating downstream in the Sacramento basin fish migrating downstream in the Sacramento River ranged from 23% to 59% under same conditions River ranged from 23% to 59% under same conditions as above.as above.

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RPA Overview for Indirect RPA Overview for Indirect MortalityMortality

Indirect mortality is related to most Indirect mortality is related to most of the project elements associated of the project elements associated with the Deltawith the Delta

The suite of RPA actions that focus The suite of RPA actions that focus on the Delta elements act in concert on the Delta elements act in concert to reduce indirect mortality by to reduce indirect mortality by reducing exposure to the sources of reducing exposure to the sources of mortalitymortality

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San Joaquin River Inflow to San Joaquin River Inflow to the Deltathe Delta

OCAP assumes that VAMP – like flows and OCAP assumes that VAMP – like flows and exports will continue into the future.exports will continue into the future.

BUT: No defined description of this BUT: No defined description of this operation has been presented to date operation has been presented to date andand there is limited “fish water” available to there is limited “fish water” available to offset VAMP water costs in the future.offset VAMP water costs in the future.

Spring-time flows currently seen during the Spring-time flows currently seen during the VAMP operations on the Tuolumne River VAMP operations on the Tuolumne River and Merced River are likely to decline and Merced River are likely to decline

Project and non-project stressors result in Project and non-project stressors result in 90-99% mortality of Juvenile San Joaquin 90-99% mortality of Juvenile San Joaquin River steelhead.River steelhead.

Increased survival and subsequent adult Increased survival and subsequent adult returns are linked to increased river flows returns are linked to increased river flows during the juvenile outmigration periodduring the juvenile outmigration period

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Relationship of April and Relationship of April and May flows to Adult May flows to Adult

EscapementEscapementFall-Run Chinook Salmon Escapemnt shifted 2 years

in relation to water year

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

Years

Flo

w a

t V

ern

alis

(c

fs)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Ad

ult

Es

ca

pe

me

nt

April Flow s May Flow s SJR Fall-run Escapement

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Total Escapement to the San Joaquin River Tributaries, 1951 through 1996,And Spring Time flows 2.5 years Earlier

From Baker and Morhardt, 2001

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98 From 2006 VAMP report

Relationship between Adult Fall-run Chinook Salmon Escapement and the Vernalis flow to export ratio 2.5 years earlier

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RPA Overview for San RPA Overview for San Joaquin River Flows into Joaquin River Flows into

the Deltathe Delta Flows are based on previous studies Flows are based on previous studies

and historical gaged flows at Vernalis.and historical gaged flows at Vernalis. Numerous iterations of the proposed Numerous iterations of the proposed

flow criteria were run to examine the flow criteria were run to examine the effects of the action before deciding on effects of the action before deciding on a final action.a final action.

RPA is phased in over timeRPA is phased in over time Flexibility in RPA pertaining to water Flexibility in RPA pertaining to water

year type and drought conditionsyear type and drought conditions Continuing adaptive managementContinuing adaptive management

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NMFS’ OCAP Opinion is located at NMFS’ OCAP Opinion is located at http://swr.nmfs.noaa.gov/ocap.htmhttp://swr.nmfs.noaa.gov/ocap.htm