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NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS) Biological and Conference Opinion on the Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project National Research Council Committee on Sustainable Water and Environmental Management in the California Bay-Delta - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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NOAA National Marine NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)Fisheries Service’s (NMFS)Biological and Conference Biological and Conference Opinion on the Long-Term Opinion on the Long-Term Operations of the Central Operations of the Central Valley Project and State Valley Project and State
Water Project Water Project
National Research Council National Research Council Committee on Sustainable Water and Committee on Sustainable Water and
Environmental Management in the Environmental Management in the California Bay-DeltaCalifornia Bay-Delta
January 25, 2010January 25, 2010
2
Status of SpeciesStatus of Species
ESU Status
Sacramento River winter-run Chinook salmon
Endangered (Jan 1994)
Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon
Threatened (Sep 1999)
Central Valley fall-run Chinook salmon
Candidate (Sep 1999)
Central Valley steelhead Threatened (Mar 1998)
Southern DPS green sturgeon
Threatened (Apr 2006)
Southern Resident killer whale
Endangered (Nov 2005)
3
Central Valley Salmon Central Valley Salmon Population Over TimePopulation Over Time
4
Salmon Population Salmon Population ViabilityViability
ABUNDANCE
POP GROWTH RATE
DIVERSITY SPATIALSTRUCTURE
HABITAT CAPACITY AND DIVERSITY
FreshwaterEstuarineMarine
5
Central Valley Spring Central Valley Spring ChinookChinook
ESU StructureESU Structure
6
Central Valley SteelheadCentral Valley SteelheadESU StructureESU Structure
7
Viability Criteria for Viability Criteria for PopulationsPopulations
8
Viability Criteria for Viability Criteria for ESUsESUs
At least two viable populations per At least two viable populations per diversity groupdiversity group
If possible, the populations should not If possible, the populations should not have highly correlated risks of have highly correlated risks of catastrophic disturbance catastrophic disturbance
9
Current Current
Status of Status of
CV CV SpringSpring--
Run Run
Chinook Chinook
salmonsalmon
10
Climate ChangeClimate Change
11
Effects of Water Projects on Effects of Water Projects on SalmonSalmon
12
Population AnatomyPopulation Anatomy
Historical fall-run habitat Current fall-run habitat
13
Institutional ChallengesInstitutional Challenges
14
SummarySummary Central Valley Salmonid ESUs are threatened Central Valley Salmonid ESUs are threatened
with extinctionwith extinction Water project facilities and operations have Water project facilities and operations have
negative effects on fish habitat, with cascading negative effects on fish habitat, with cascading effects on spatial structure, diversity, effects on spatial structure, diversity, productivity, and abundance of populationsproductivity, and abundance of populations
Improving in-stream flows and curtailing Improving in-stream flows and curtailing exports is necessary to conserve salmon, but exports is necessary to conserve salmon, but will not be sufficient for recoverywill not be sufficient for recovery
An ecosystem perspective is needed to An ecosystem perspective is needed to understand how human activities impact understand how human activities impact salmonsalmon
Adaptive management is needed to reduce Adaptive management is needed to reduce risksrisks
15
Scope of today’s Scope of today’s presentationpresentation
Brief highlights of Opinion – not all topics Brief highlights of Opinion – not all topics presented due to time constraintspresented due to time constraints
Opinion itself is a summary document of Opinion itself is a summary document of over four years of analytic work between over four years of analytic work between 5 agencies5 agencies
Biological assessment, NMFS technical Biological assessment, NMFS technical memos, peer review reports are importantmemos, peer review reports are important
700+ scientific citations700+ scientific citations Administrative record is 150,000 pages - - Administrative record is 150,000 pages - -
documents full decision-making processdocuments full decision-making process
16
Approach to Biological Approach to Biological Opinion:Opinion:
ChallengesChallenges Complexity - geographic scopeComplexity - geographic scope Multi-species Multi-species State and federal project – combined operationsState and federal project – combined operations Number of dams and diversionsNumber of dams and diversions Economic importance of projectEconomic importance of project
Urban water supply, agricultural water supply, Urban water supply, agricultural water supply, commercial salmon fisherycommercial salmon fishery
Long-term proposed operations (21 years)Long-term proposed operations (21 years) Litigation historyLitigation history Current events (recession, drought, fishery Current events (recession, drought, fishery
closure)closure)
17
Approach to Biological Approach to Biological Opinion: ConstraintsOpinion: Constraints
Our task – Limited to analyzing the Federal Our task – Limited to analyzing the Federal action, as proposedaction, as proposed
Uncertainty in science; risk is balanced in Uncertainty in science; risk is balanced in favor of the speciesfavor of the species
Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) – Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) – Limited to actions within authority and Limited to actions within authority and
discretion of USBR and DWR discretion of USBR and DWR Minimum to avoid jeopardy; NOT a recovery Minimum to avoid jeopardy; NOT a recovery
planplan Must avoid jeopardy in short-term and long-termMust avoid jeopardy in short-term and long-term Not necessary to prove quantitativelyNot necessary to prove quantitatively
18
Consultation ProcessConsultation Process
Used a team of experienced federal biologists Used a team of experienced federal biologists and hydrologists.and hydrologists.
Adhered closely to legal requirements, agency Adhered closely to legal requirements, agency guidelines, and used the best available guidelines, and used the best available scientific and commercial informationscientific and commercial information
Maintained close and meaningful collaboration Maintained close and meaningful collaboration with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, CA with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, CA Department of Water Resources, U.S. Fish and Department of Water Resources, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and CA Department of Fish Wildlife Service, and CA Department of Fish and Gameand Game
Draft opinion peer reviewed by CALFED Draft opinion peer reviewed by CALFED Independent Science Panel and Center for Independent Science Panel and Center for Independent Experts (CIE)Independent Experts (CIE)
19
Scientific EvidenceScientific Evidence
Used best scientific and commercial Used best scientific and commercial informationinformation
Literature review - 700 citations Literature review - 700 citations Information from previous listing Information from previous listing
decisions, critical habitat rules, etc.decisions, critical habitat rules, etc. USBR’s Biological Assessment, USBR’s Biological Assessment,
including model outputsincluding model outputs Draft recovery planDraft recovery plan Monitoring reportsMonitoring reports
20
Consultation BackgroundConsultation Background NMFS OCAP biological opinions:NMFS OCAP biological opinions:
Feb. 14, 1992, limited to winter-run Chinook Feb. 14, 1992, limited to winter-run Chinook salmonsalmon
1993-2002, interim opinions issued due to 1993-2002, interim opinions issued due to changes in operations and new species changes in operations and new species listedlisted
October 22, 2004: In 2008, Federal court October 22, 2004: In 2008, Federal court invalidated that Opinion, and ordered that invalidated that Opinion, and ordered that NMFS prepare a new Opinion. NMFS prepare a new Opinion.
June 4, 2009: Six complaints filed to date.June 4, 2009: Six complaints filed to date. Close coordination with the USFWS Close coordination with the USFWS
throughout the OCAP consultation throughout the OCAP consultation processprocess
21
Peer Reviews of thePeer Reviews of theDraft Biological OpinionDraft Biological Opinion
CALFED Science Panel:CALFED Science Panel: James J. Anderson, James J. Anderson, University of
Washington & Columbia Basin Research Mike Deas, Watercourse Engineering,
Inc. Philip B. Duffy, Climate Central, Inc.;
University of California, Merced Daniel L. Erickson, Consultant Reg Reisenbichler, Retired--U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS) (USGS) Kenneth A. Rose, Louisiana State
University Peter E. Smith, Retired--USGS
CIE reviewers:CIE reviewers: Richard A.
Marston Ian A. Fleming E. Eric Knudsen
CALFED & CIE reviews supported NMFS overall CALFED & CIE reviews supported NMFS overall conclusionsconclusions
22
Peer Reviews of the Peer Reviews of the Draft Biological Opinion Draft Biological Opinion
(cont’d)(cont’d) Significant changes made in response Significant changes made in response
to peer review recommendations:to peer review recommendations: Editing for clarity and consistency Editing for clarity and consistency
between division analysesbetween division analyses Estimate ranges of loss from compilation Estimate ranges of loss from compilation
of existing studies, even when we did not of existing studies, even when we did not have complete data setshave complete data sets
Assessed risk based on weighting and key Assessed risk based on weighting and key lines of evidencelines of evidence
Plan for drought sequence – not a single Plan for drought sequence – not a single dry yeardry year
23
Analytical OverviewAnalytical Overview Evaluated each stressor by species, life Evaluated each stressor by species, life
stage, and locationstage, and location Risk and uncertainty incorporated Risk and uncertainty incorporated
throughoutthroughout Weighted evidence by certainty and Weighted evidence by certainty and
magnitude of effectmagnitude of effect Stated assumptions, reviewed model Stated assumptions, reviewed model
constraints and applicability, used rangesconstraints and applicability, used ranges Identified all direct and indirect effectsIdentified all direct and indirect effects
Considered variability in the Bay-Delta Considered variability in the Bay-Delta ecosystemecosystem
Summed for individual, population, Summed for individual, population, diversity group and species levels.diversity group and species levels.
24
Analytical ApproachAnalytical Approach Viable Salmonid PopulationsViable Salmonid Populations
ABUNDANCE
POP GROWTH RATE
DIVERSITY SPATIALSTRUCTURE
HABITAT CAPACITY AND DIVERSITY
FreshwaterEstuarineMarine
25
Analytical Approach Analytical Approach (cont’d)(cont’d)
Central Valley Technical Central Valley Technical Recovery Team products:Recovery Team products:Historical population Historical population structurestructure
Assessing viability of Central Assessing viability of Central Valley salmon and steelhead Valley salmon and steelhead populationspopulations
Life cycle approachLife cycle approach
26
Stressors on Listed SpeciesStressors on Listed Species Loss of habitat and degraded water Loss of habitat and degraded water
quality due to:quality due to: Non-Federal dams and diversionsNon-Federal dams and diversions Land use activitiesLand use activities
Invasive speciesInvasive species HatcheriesHatcheries Harvest activitiesHarvest activities Environmental variationsEnvironmental variations
Ocean conditionsOcean conditions Climate changeClimate change
27
Environmental BaselineEnvironmental Baseline
28
Effects OverviewEffects Overview Shasta Reservoir: Future operations, Shasta Reservoir: Future operations,
including climate change:including climate change: 5 to 65% mortality of winter-run Chinook 5 to 65% mortality of winter-run Chinook
salmon eggs and frysalmon eggs and fry Red Bluff Diversion Dam (RBDD):Red Bluff Diversion Dam (RBDD):
Delays adult passage of up to 15% of the Delays adult passage of up to 15% of the winter-run and up to 70% of the spring-run winter-run and up to 70% of the spring-run that spawn above the RBDDthat spawn above the RBDD
Blocks up to 35% of green sturgeon from its Blocks up to 35% of green sturgeon from its only known spawning groundonly known spawning ground
American River:American River: Mean water temperatures > 65°F, results in Mean water temperatures > 65°F, results in
increased incidence of disease in juvenile increased incidence of disease in juvenile steelheadsteelhead
~75% of time in June, 100% in July and ~75% of time in June, 100% in July and August, >95% in SeptemberAugust, >95% in September
29
Effects Overview (cont’d)Effects Overview (cont’d) Juvenile survival at export facilities: Juvenile survival at export facilities:
About 1 in 3 survive through the Federal About 1 in 3 survive through the Federal facilitiesfacilities
About 1 in 6 survive through the State About 1 in 6 survive through the State facilitiesfacilities
Overall mortality in the interior Delta: Overall mortality in the interior Delta: 35-90% of those that enter interior Delta35-90% of those that enter interior Delta 5-20% of each winter-run Chinook salmon 5-20% of each winter-run Chinook salmon
populationpopulation Juvenile San Joaquin River steelhead: Juvenile San Joaquin River steelhead:
90-99% mortality from project and non-project 90-99% mortality from project and non-project stressorsstressors
Reduction in approximately 13-15% fall- and Reduction in approximately 13-15% fall- and late fall-run Chinook salmon, which is killer late fall-run Chinook salmon, which is killer whale prey; effects from hatchery management.whale prey; effects from hatchery management.
30
Findings of the Biological Findings of the Biological OpinionOpinion
OCAP would likely jeopardize: OCAP would likely jeopardize: Sacramento winter-run Chinook salmon Sacramento winter-run Chinook salmon Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon Central Valley steelheadCentral Valley steelhead Southern DPS of North American green Southern DPS of North American green
sturgeonsturgeon Southern Resident killer whalesSouthern Resident killer whales
Destruction or adverse modification of Destruction or adverse modification of designated and proposed critical habitat designated and proposed critical habitat
Central California Coast steelhead – not likely to Central California Coast steelhead – not likely to adversely affect this species or its critical adversely affect this species or its critical habitathabitat
31
Reasonable and Prudent Alternative Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA) Overview(RPA) Overview
Identified actions to alleviate Identified actions to alleviate major stressors for each species major stressors for each species and summed these for short-and summed these for short-term and long-termterm and long-term
Included appropriate flexibilities Included appropriate flexibilities in RPA where possiblein RPA where possible
Monitoring, reporting, research, Monitoring, reporting, research, adaptive managementadaptive management
32
RPA Overview (cont’d)RPA Overview (cont’d) Scope – minimum to avoid jeopardyScope – minimum to avoid jeopardy
Over 50 individual actions grouped by Over 50 individual actions grouped by division, plus a fish passage program division, plus a fish passage program
Themes: Themes: Water quantity and qualityWater quantity and quality gravel augmentationgravel augmentation improve passageimprove passage decrease entrainmentdecrease entrainment engineered solutionsengineered solutions
33
Key Elements of the RPAKey Elements of the RPA Clear Creek below Whiskeytown Dam - Clear Creek below Whiskeytown Dam -
increased flows and reduced temperatures increased flows and reduced temperatures Shasta Reservoir and the Upper Shasta Reservoir and the Upper
Sacramento River - new temperature Sacramento River - new temperature management programmanagement program
Shasta Dam - long-term passage Shasta Dam - long-term passage prescriptions to allow re-introduction of prescriptions to allow re-introduction of listed salmonlisted salmon
Red Bluff Diversion Dam - interim gate Red Bluff Diversion Dam - interim gate operations until 2012, then gates up all operations until 2012, then gates up all year.year.
Lower Sacramento River basin and Delta - Lower Sacramento River basin and Delta - improved juvenile rearing habitat improved juvenile rearing habitat
34
Key Elements of the RPA Key Elements of the RPA (cont’d)(cont’d)
American River - New flow and American River - New flow and temperature plan; fish passage at Folsom temperature plan; fish passage at Folsom Dam Dam Hatchery Genetics Management Plan for Hatchery Genetics Management Plan for
Nimbus Hatchery for steelhead and fall-Nimbus Hatchery for steelhead and fall-run Chinook salmon.run Chinook salmon.
Stanislaus River – new flow schedule, Stanislaus River – new flow schedule, temperature criteria, and habitat temperature criteria, and habitat improvementsimprovements
Delta Cross Channel Gates - Additional Delta Cross Channel Gates - Additional gate closures during key times when listed gate closures during key times when listed fish are likely to be migrating through the fish are likely to be migrating through the areaarea
35
Key Elements of the RPA Key Elements of the RPA (cont’d)(cont’d)
Old and Middle Rivers - Flows will be Old and Middle Rivers - Flows will be modified to reduce the number of modified to reduce the number of juveniles exposed to the Delta pumps, juveniles exposed to the Delta pumps, and fish salvage improvements to and fish salvage improvements to reduce mortalityreduce mortality
San Joaquin Basin - Increased flows and San Joaquin Basin - Increased flows and pumping curtailments. pumping curtailments.
Studies – 6 year study of acoustic Studies – 6 year study of acoustic tagged fish in the San Joaquin Basin to tagged fish in the San Joaquin Basin to evaluate the effectiveness of the RPA evaluate the effectiveness of the RPA and refine it over the life-time of the and refine it over the life-time of the project. project.
36
RPA FlexibilitiesRPA Flexibilities
Real-time operationsReal-time operations Phased-in implementationPhased-in implementation Performance-based approachesPerformance-based approaches Take limits based on annual juvenile Take limits based on annual juvenile
production estimatesproduction estimates Actions tiered to water year Actions tiered to water year
type/drought exceptiontype/drought exception Research and adaptive managementResearch and adaptive management
37
Other Alternative RPA Other Alternative RPA Actions Actions
Evaluated during consultation and rejected Evaluated during consultation and rejected (ineffective, critical habitat concerns, smelt (ineffective, critical habitat concerns, smelt concerns, predation issues, etc):concerns, predation issues, etc): Trap and haul of San Joaquin steelheadTrap and haul of San Joaquin steelhead New screens at the existing pumpsNew screens at the existing pumps New screens in the Delta (e.g., Georgiana New screens in the Delta (e.g., Georgiana
Slough)Slough) Permanent operable barriers at Head of Old Permanent operable barriers at Head of Old
RiverRiver Non-physical barrier alone at the Head of Old Non-physical barrier alone at the Head of Old
River (without increased flows and export River (without increased flows and export curtailments)curtailments)
38
Alternatives (continued)Alternatives (continued)Alternatives to water supply evaluated Alternatives to water supply evaluated
and included in RPA:and included in RPA: Gravel augmentationGravel augmentation Rearing habitat restorationRearing habitat restoration Engineered solutions, including:Engineered solutions, including:
New fish screen at Red BluffNew fish screen at Red Bluff New temperature infrastructure at New temperature infrastructure at
Whiskeytown and Folsom DamsWhiskeytown and Folsom Dams Retrofits to existing salvage facilities Retrofits to existing salvage facilities Non-physical barrier (bubble curtain)Non-physical barrier (bubble curtain)
Sacramento Sacramento River DivisionRiver Division
Bruce OppenheimBruce Oppenheim
40
Shasta Dam and ReservoirShasta Dam and Reservoir
41
Carry over Storage in Carry over Storage in ShastaShasta
Long-term Average Annual and End of September Storage Differences for Shasta Storage, Spring
Creek Tunnel Flow, and Keswick Release
Difference in Thousands of Acre-feet [TAF]
Study 7.0 -
Study 6.0
Study 7.1 -
Study 7.0
Study 8.0 -
Study 7.0
Study 8.0 -
Study 7.1
Shasta End-of-September Storage
26 -121 -121 0
Annual Keswick Release 1 8 6 -2
Annual Spring Creek Powerplant Flows
3 -1 -2 -2
Study 6.0 = 2004 operations Study 7.1 = Study 6.0 = 2004 operations Study 7.1 = near future operationsnear future operationsStudy 7.0 =current operationsStudy 7.0 =current operations Study 8.0 = Study 8.0 = future operationsfuture operations
42
Calsim and Sacramento River Water Quality Calsim and Sacramento River Water Quality Modeling results for temperature exceedances at Modeling results for temperature exceedances at
Balls Ferry under future conditions Study 8.0Balls Ferry under future conditions Study 8.0
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
1/1 1/22 2/12 3/5 3/26 4/16 5/7 5/28 6/18 7/9 7/30 8/20 9/10 10/1 10/22 11/12 12/3 12/24
Mean Daily Temperature (F)
Avg
Max
5%
10%
25%
50%
75%
90%
95%
Min
Date (month/day)
43
Egg and Fry Mortality by Water Year Type at Balls Ferry
Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Average Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical
40-30-30 Water Year Type
Perc
en
t M
ort
ali
ty
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA NAStudy 6.0(2004)
Study 7.0(current)
Study 7.1(near future)
Study 8.0(future)
Water Year Type
Perc
en
t M
ort
ality
44
Temperature effects with Temperature effects with Climate ChangeClimate Change
Sacramento River Winter-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Average Wet AboveNormal
Below Normal Dry Critical
40-30-30 Water Year Type
Per
cen
t M
ort
alit
y
Study 9.0 Base Study 9.1 Base w ith 1' Sea Level Rise
Study 9.4 Dryer, Less Warming Study 9.2 Wetter, Less Warming
Study 9.5 Drier, More Warming Study 9.3 Wetter, More Warming
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Average Wet AboveNormal
Below Normal Dry Critical
Study 9.0 Base Study 9.1 Base w ith 1' Sea Level Rise
Study 9.4 Dryer, Less Warming Study 9.2 Wetter, Less Warming
Study 9.5 Drier, More Warming Study 9.3 Wetter, More Warming
45
Sacramento River Spring-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Average Wet Above Normal Below Normal Dry Critical
40-30-30 Water Year Type
Per
cen
t M
ort
alit
y
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA NA
Perc
en
t M
ort
ality
Water Year Type
Study 6.0(2004)
Study 7.0(current)
Study 7.1(near future)
Study 8.0(future)
46
Sacramento River Spring-Run Chinook Salmon Mortality
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Average Wet AboveNormal
Below Normal Dry Critical
40-30-30 Water Year Type
Per
cen
t M
ort
alit
y
Study 9.0 Base Study 9.1 Base w ith 1' Sea Level Rise
Study 9.4 Dryer, Less Warming Study 9.2 Wetter, Less Warming
Study 9.5 Drier, More Warming Study 9.3 Wetter, More Warming
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Average Wet AboveNormal
Below Normal Dry Critical
Study 9.0 Base Study 9.1 Base w ith 1' Sea Level Rise
Study 9.4 Dryer, Less Warming Study 9.2 Wetter, Less Warming
Study 9.5 Drier, More Warming Study 9.3 Wetter, More Warming
Water Year Type
Perc
en
t M
ort
ality
47
Summary of Significant Effects Summary of Significant Effects on the Mainstem Sacramento on the Mainstem Sacramento
RiverRiver Long-term average loss of 121 TAF September Long-term average loss of 121 TAF September
carry-over storage (including effects of climate carry-over storage (including effects of climate change) will:change) will: Eliminate spring-run spawning in the mainstemEliminate spring-run spawning in the mainstem Reduce winter-run spawning habitat in the mainstemReduce winter-run spawning habitat in the mainstem Increase egg mortality substantially in consideration Increase egg mortality substantially in consideration
of climate change [of climate change [i.ei.e., Critical years increases to 5 ., Critical years increases to 5 to 65% for winter-run, 40 to 95% for spring-run (Sac. to 65% for winter-run, 40 to 95% for spring-run (Sac. R mainstem only), and 4% for steelhead (based on R mainstem only), and 4% for steelhead (based on late fall-run Chinook salmon as a surrogate)]. late fall-run Chinook salmon as a surrogate)].
Result in shorter emigration period and lower Result in shorter emigration period and lower survival for juvenile salmonidssurvival for juvenile salmonids
48
Red Bluff Diversion Dam Red Bluff Diversion Dam (RBDD) (RBDD)
Gates in Open Position Looking Gates in Open Position Looking UpstreamUpstream
49
RBDD Adult Fish Passage
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent o
f Run
Pre
sent
Winter-run Spring-run Steelhead
Green Sturgeon Fall-run Late -fall
4 months closed
2 months closed
50
RBDD Juvenile RunTiming
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Per
cent
Pre
sent
winter-run spring-run steelhead green sturgeon
4 Months Closed
RBDD Juvenile RunTiming
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Per
cent
Pre
sent
winter-run spring-run steelhead green sturgeon
4 Months Closed
51
Effect of Operations on Effect of Operations on Winter-Run Chinook Winter-Run Chinook
Salmon Salmon
52
Summary of the Main Summary of the Main Effects from Operating Effects from Operating
RBDDRBDD Adult upstream migration:Adult upstream migration:
Delays passage of up to 15% of the winter-run and Delays passage of up to 15% of the winter-run and up to 70% of the spring-runup to 70% of the spring-run
Blocks up to 35% of green sturgeon from its main Blocks up to 35% of green sturgeon from its main spawning ground.spawning ground.
Juvenile downstream migration:Juvenile downstream migration: Higher predation rates on juvenile winter-run, Higher predation rates on juvenile winter-run,
steelhead, and green sturgeon as they pass steelhead, and green sturgeon as they pass through Lake Red Bluff and the diversion gates through Lake Red Bluff and the diversion gates ((i.ei.e., 45% to 50% during May). ., 45% to 50% during May).
Critical habitat: Adverse modification of 6 Critical habitat: Adverse modification of 6 stream miles from inundation behind RBDD.stream miles from inundation behind RBDD.
53
RPA Actions to Address Key RPA Actions to Address Key Sacramento River Division Sacramento River Division
EffectsEffects Clear Creek: New temperature curtain in Clear Creek: New temperature curtain in
WhiskeytownWhiskeytown Reduce temperatures in OctoberReduce temperatures in October
Shasta Reservoir: Higher Shasta storage Shasta Reservoir: Higher Shasta storage required in Sept. & Aprilrequired in Sept. & April
Shasta Dam: New temperature management Shasta Dam: New temperature management programprogram
Upper Sacramento River: Upper Sacramento River: Long-term passage prescriptions at Shasta Dam to Long-term passage prescriptions at Shasta Dam to
allow re-introduction of listed salmonallow re-introduction of listed salmon RBDD gates up, year round by 2012RBDD gates up, year round by 2012
Lower Sacramento River and Delta: Restore Lower Sacramento River and Delta: Restore juvenile rearing habitatjuvenile rearing habitat
American River American River DivisionDivision
55
Lower American River Lower American River (LAR)(LAR)
56
Jun
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Tem
per
atu
re (
˚F)
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA
65.0
Jul
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Tem
per
atu
re (
˚F)
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA
65.0
a
b
June
July
Exposure to daily mean water temps. above 65°F are associated with anal vent inflammation in juvenile steelhead in the LAR
57
Aug
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Tem
per
atu
re (
˚F)
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA
65.0
a
Sep
60.0
62.0
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Tem
per
atu
re (
˚F)
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA
65.0
b
August
September
58
““VSP” = Viable Salmonid PopulationVSP” = Viable Salmonid Population
Flow fluctuations
Redd scour
Nimbus hatchery
Warm water temps
Entrainment
Angling impacts
Low flows
Folsom and Nimbus Dams
Predation
Project Stressors Baseline Stressors
Loss of natural river function
59
Summary of Main Effects Summary of Main Effects on the Lower American on the Lower American
RiverRiver Mean water temperatures above Mean water temperatures above
65°F ~75% in June, 100% in July 65°F ~75% in June, 100% in July and August, >95% in September, and August, >95% in September, resulting in increased incidence of resulting in increased incidence of disease in juvenile steelhead.disease in juvenile steelhead.
Reduced genetic diversity from Reduced genetic diversity from hatchery management program.hatchery management program.
60
RPA Actions to Address Key RPA Actions to Address Key American River Division American River Division
EffectsEffects New flow and temperature plan; fish New flow and temperature plan; fish
passage at Folsom Dam passage at Folsom Dam Structural modifications for Structural modifications for
Improved water temperature control Improved water temperature control device at Folsom Damdevice at Folsom Dam
Temperature control curtains at Lake Temperature control curtains at Lake NatomaNatoma
Temperature control at El Dorado Temperature control at El Dorado Irrigation District DiversionIrrigation District Diversion
Hatchery Genetics Management Plan Hatchery Genetics Management Plan for Nimbus Hatchery for steelhead for Nimbus Hatchery for steelhead and Fall-run Chinook salmon.and Fall-run Chinook salmon.
Eastside DivisionEastside Division
New Melones and Stanislaus River New Melones and Stanislaus River operationsoperations
Rhonda ReedRhonda Reed
62
63
Stanislaus River – New Stanislaus River – New Melones DamMelones Dam
Listed Species: Listed Species: Central Valley Central Valley steelheadsteelhead
Southern Sierra Southern Sierra Nevada diversity Nevada diversity group group
Current population Current population numbers very low for numbers very low for all 4 populationsall 4 populations
Stanislaus Tuolumne
Merced
64
Summary of the Main Summary of the Main Effects on the Stanislaus Effects on the Stanislaus
RiverRiver TemperatureTemperature
Water temperatures too warm for CV steelhead, Water temperatures too warm for CV steelhead, 3-20% of time , especially May-Sept. 3-20% of time , especially May-Sept.
Jul
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Tem
pera
ture
(˚F
)
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA
65
Summary of the Main Summary of the Main Effects on the Stanislaus Effects on the Stanislaus
RiverRiver TemperatureTemperature FlowFlow
Instream flow requirements for CV Instream flow requirements for CV steelhead not addressedsteelhead not addressed
66
Impaired Flow Pattern Impaired Flow Pattern Affects Habitat Affects Habitat
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1
CF
S
Unimpaired
Impaired
67
Summary of the Main Summary of the Main Effects on the Stanislaus Effects on the Stanislaus
RiverRiver TemperatureTemperature FlowFlow Ongoing critical habitat degradation Ongoing critical habitat degradation
Channel incision cuts off rearing habitatChannel incision cuts off rearing habitat Spawning gravel washed outSpawning gravel washed out Channel encroachment.Channel encroachment.
68
Modeled Monthly Temperature Exceedance Probability:July- Orange
Blossom Bridge
Daily Temperature
Variability
Jul
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Tem
per
atu
re (
˚F)
Study 6.0 Study 7.0 Study 7.1 Study 8.0 NA
69
Stanislaus River Minimum Stanislaus River Minimum Steelhead FlowsSteelhead Flows
70
Above Normal Releases vs Above Normal Releases vs Minimum Flow ScheduleMinimum Flow Schedule
71
Channel DemobilizationChannel Demobilization
Kondolf, et al. 2001
72
RPA Actions to Address Key RPA Actions to Address Key
East Side Division EffectsEast Side Division Effects Establish Stanislaus Operations GroupEstablish Stanislaus Operations Group Set operational temperature criteria Set operational temperature criteria Set minimum flows for steelhead survivalSet minimum flows for steelhead survival Channel maintaining flows in wet yearsChannel maintaining flows in wet years Habitat improvements for spawning and Habitat improvements for spawning and
rearing habitat, building on Central rearing habitat, building on Central Valley Project Improvement Act Valley Project Improvement Act authoritiesauthorities
Assess fish passage past New Melones Assess fish passage past New Melones DamDam
Delta DivisionDelta Division
Jeff StuartJeff Stuart
Key Elements in Delta Key Elements in Delta
DivisionDivision Climate ChangeClimate ChangeDCC GatesDCC GatesProposed Export ChangesProposed Export ChangesDirect Entrainment at Project Direct Entrainment at Project FacilitiesFacilitiesIndirect Mortality within DeltaIndirect Mortality within DeltaSan Joaquin River Inflow to San Joaquin River Inflow to DeltaDelta
75
Temporal Occurrence of Temporal Occurrence of Species in DeltaSpecies in Delta
76
Climate Change Impacts to Delta:Climate Change Impacts to Delta:
Fall and winter seasons have greatest Fall and winter seasons have greatest sensitivity to climate change according to sensitivity to climate change according to OCAP modeling.OCAP modeling.
Drier climates: Drier climates: In wet years: > risk of pumping entrainment in In wet years: > risk of pumping entrainment in
winter compared to current climate.winter compared to current climate. In dry years: minimal change in OMR flows In dry years: minimal change in OMR flows
during winter and spring.during winter and spring.
Wetter climates: Wetter climates: In wet years: < pumping entrainment risk in In wet years: < pumping entrainment risk in
winter, more positive OMR flowswinter, more positive OMR flows In dry years: > risks in the winter , slightly In dry years: > risks in the winter , slightly
more negative OMR flowsmore negative OMR flows
77
DCC Gate OperationsDCC Gate Operations
DCC Gates
Sacramento
River
N
S
E W
78
DCC GatesDCC Gates Manmade channel (early 1950s) to enhance Manmade channel (early 1950s) to enhance
water quality for CVP exports at Tracywater quality for CVP exports at Tracy Can pass 6,000 cfs when gates are open, ≈ 20 to Can pass 6,000 cfs when gates are open, ≈ 20 to
25 percent of Sacramento River flow at Freeport 25 percent of Sacramento River flow at Freeport can move into the Mokelumne Rivercan move into the Mokelumne River
Listed salmonids are diverted into the channel Listed salmonids are diverted into the channel when the gates are open. Entrainment rate is when the gates are open. Entrainment rate is related to river flow, time of day, and tidal cycle.related to river flow, time of day, and tidal cycle.
Survival of these fish is substantially lower than Survival of these fish is substantially lower than those fish that remain in the Sacramento River .those fish that remain in the Sacramento River .
Early migrating salmon and steelhead (Nov – Jan) Early migrating salmon and steelhead (Nov – Jan) are at risk under current operations schedule.are at risk under current operations schedule.
79
Timing of Juvenile winter-run passage at Knights Landing rotary screw trap sampling 1995-2006
(Low, White, and Chappell 2006)
80
RPA Overview for DCC RPA Overview for DCC GatesGates
Integrate current monitoring triggers with Integrate current monitoring triggers with new gate operations in December and new gate operations in December and January.January.
Close DCC gates from December 15 to Close DCC gates from December 15 to January 31.January 31.
Weekly evaluations of monitoring data by the Weekly evaluations of monitoring data by the Delta Operations for Salmonids and Sturgeon Delta Operations for Salmonids and Sturgeon technical team (DOSS).technical team (DOSS).
Flexibility of gate operations regarding water Flexibility of gate operations regarding water quality criteria and experimental studies.quality criteria and experimental studies.
Study alternative engineering solutions to Study alternative engineering solutions to control access to the Delta interiorcontrol access to the Delta interior
81
Modeled Changes in Export Modeled Changes in Export LevelsLevels
CVP and SWP exports increase in both CVP and SWP exports increase in both near future (Study 7.1) and future near future (Study 7.1) and future conditions (Study 8.0) compared to the conditions (Study 8.0) compared to the current condition (Study 7.0).current condition (Study 7.0).
Significant increases in exports during the Significant increases in exports during the late fall and winter time frames over late fall and winter time frames over current operations.current operations.
SWP exports increase in April and May SWP exports increase in April and May due to decrease in “fish water” available due to decrease in “fish water” available for export curtailment.for export curtailment.
82
Effects to Listed Effects to Listed SalmonidsSalmonids
Elevated exports result in an increased potential for Elevated exports result in an increased potential for entrainment at the export facilities, as well as entrainment at the export facilities, as well as migrational delays for fish entering the Delta interior, migrational delays for fish entering the Delta interior,
Increases in exports reflected in increased negative Increases in exports reflected in increased negative Old and Middle River flowsOld and Middle River flows
Diversion of listed fish into the interior of the Delta Diversion of listed fish into the interior of the Delta increases the risk of mortality (increases the risk of mortality (i.ei.e., predation) as well ., predation) as well as exposure to contaminants in the Delta interior. as exposure to contaminants in the Delta interior. Overall mortality in the interior Delta:Overall mortality in the interior Delta: 35-90% of those that enter the interior Delta35-90% of those that enter the interior Delta 5-20% of winter-run Chinook salmon population 5-20% of winter-run Chinook salmon population
entering the Deltaentering the Delta San Joaquin River Basin fish have an increased San Joaquin River Basin fish have an increased
vulnerability to entrainment with increased exports vulnerability to entrainment with increased exports levels. levels.
83
SWP
CVP
Flow Patterns in the Delta
84
Projected Old and Middle River Projected Old and Middle River FlowsFlows
85
86
Particle Entrainment at the Export Particle Entrainment at the Export Facilities under different OMR Facilities under different OMR
flowsflows
~ 40%
USFWS 2008
87
Initial Slope
SWP Loss vs. OMR flows
88
RPA Overview for ExportsRPA Overview for Exports
Integrate current monitoring triggers with new Integrate current monitoring triggers with new export operations January through June.export operations January through June.
Limit OMR flows, no more negative than -5,000 Limit OMR flows, no more negative than -5,000 cfs January through June.cfs January through June.
Staged Reductions in exports when fish are Staged Reductions in exports when fish are present at the facilities, measured by OMR present at the facilities, measured by OMR flow levels.flow levels.
Weekly review of operations and fish salvage Weekly review of operations and fish salvage by the DOSS technical group.by the DOSS technical group.
Actions compatible with the FWS Delta smelt Actions compatible with the FWS Delta smelt actionsactions
89
Direct Entrainment at Direct Entrainment at Project FacilitiesProject Facilities
Survival is low through the salvage Survival is low through the salvage facilities: facilities: • 1 out of 6 fish survive at the SWP1 out of 6 fish survive at the SWP• 1 out of 3 fish survive at the CVP1 out of 3 fish survive at the CVP
Screening EfficiencyScreening Efficiency Predation issuesPredation issues CHTR operations (Collection, CHTR operations (Collection,
Handling, Trucking and Release)Handling, Trucking and Release)
90
Overall survival estimates Overall survival estimates of fish collection actionsof fish collection actions
Estimate of Survival for Screening Process at the SWP and CVP1
SWP Percent survival Running Percent Pre-screen Survival2 25 percent3 (75 percent loss) 25 Louver Efficiency 75 percent (25 percent loss) 18.75 CHTR Survival 98 percent (2 percent loss) 18.375 Post Release Survival (predation only)
90 percent (10 percent loss) 16.54
CVP4 Percent survival Running Percent
Pre-screen Survival5 85 percent (15 percent loss) 85 Louver Efficiency6 46.8 (53.2 percent loss) 39.78 CHTR Survival 98 percent (2 percent loss) 38.98 Post Release Survival (predation only)
90 percent (10 percent loss) 35.08
91
RPA Overview for Direct RPA Overview for Direct Export EntrainmentExport Entrainment
Increase overall salvage efficiency to 75% Increase overall salvage efficiency to 75% for both facilitiesfor both facilities
Directed actions for both facilities include:Directed actions for both facilities include:• Improve screening efficiency/operationsImprove screening efficiency/operations• Reduce predation lossesReduce predation losses• Improve reporting methodologyImprove reporting methodology
Improve survival of salvaged fish releases Improve survival of salvaged fish releases • Release fish from mobile barges, multiple Release fish from mobile barges, multiple
release sites, or other methodsrelease sites, or other methods
92
Indirect Mortality in Delta Indirect Mortality in Delta InteriorInterior
Assessed indirect mortality within delta Assessed indirect mortality within delta interior utilizing applicable studies and interior utilizing applicable studies and literature.literature.
Compared export and non-export Compared export and non-export related mortality within the interior related mortality within the interior delta utilizing DWR’s Delta Survival delta utilizing DWR’s Delta Survival model and CalSim II output from model and CalSim II output from Studies 7.0 (current operations), Studies 7.0 (current operations), 7.1 (near future operations), and 8.0 7.1 (near future operations), and 8.0 (future operations).(future operations).
Assessed recent survival studies Assessed recent survival studies utilizing acoustically tagged fish.utilizing acoustically tagged fish.
93
Results from DWR Survival Results from DWR Survival ModelModel
Monthly export related mortality for Sacramento River Monthly export related mortality for Sacramento River fish ranged from <1% to 15% combining all studies and fish ranged from <1% to 15% combining all studies and water year types for the period between December and water year types for the period between December and June.June.
Monthly Indirect mortality (non-export) for Sacramento Monthly Indirect mortality (non-export) for Sacramento River fish ranged from 3% to 32% combining all studies River fish ranged from 3% to 32% combining all studies and water year types for the period between December and water year types for the period between December and June.and June.
Higher E/I ratios had higher mortality levels.Higher E/I ratios had higher mortality levels. Higher E/I ratios typically occurred in December and Higher E/I ratios typically occurred in December and
January in drier hydrological conditions.January in drier hydrological conditions. Monthly total population mortality for Sacramento River Monthly total population mortality for Sacramento River
basin fish migrating downstream in the Sacramento basin fish migrating downstream in the Sacramento River ranged from 23% to 59% under same conditions River ranged from 23% to 59% under same conditions as above.as above.
94
RPA Overview for Indirect RPA Overview for Indirect MortalityMortality
Indirect mortality is related to most Indirect mortality is related to most of the project elements associated of the project elements associated with the Deltawith the Delta
The suite of RPA actions that focus The suite of RPA actions that focus on the Delta elements act in concert on the Delta elements act in concert to reduce indirect mortality by to reduce indirect mortality by reducing exposure to the sources of reducing exposure to the sources of mortalitymortality
95
San Joaquin River Inflow to San Joaquin River Inflow to the Deltathe Delta
OCAP assumes that VAMP – like flows and OCAP assumes that VAMP – like flows and exports will continue into the future.exports will continue into the future.
BUT: No defined description of this BUT: No defined description of this operation has been presented to date operation has been presented to date andand there is limited “fish water” available to there is limited “fish water” available to offset VAMP water costs in the future.offset VAMP water costs in the future.
Spring-time flows currently seen during the Spring-time flows currently seen during the VAMP operations on the Tuolumne River VAMP operations on the Tuolumne River and Merced River are likely to decline and Merced River are likely to decline
Project and non-project stressors result in Project and non-project stressors result in 90-99% mortality of Juvenile San Joaquin 90-99% mortality of Juvenile San Joaquin River steelhead.River steelhead.
Increased survival and subsequent adult Increased survival and subsequent adult returns are linked to increased river flows returns are linked to increased river flows during the juvenile outmigration periodduring the juvenile outmigration period
96
Relationship of April and Relationship of April and May flows to Adult May flows to Adult
EscapementEscapementFall-Run Chinook Salmon Escapemnt shifted 2 years
in relation to water year
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Years
Flo
w a
t V
ern
alis
(c
fs)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
Ad
ult
Es
ca
pe
me
nt
April Flow s May Flow s SJR Fall-run Escapement
97
Total Escapement to the San Joaquin River Tributaries, 1951 through 1996,And Spring Time flows 2.5 years Earlier
From Baker and Morhardt, 2001
98 From 2006 VAMP report
Relationship between Adult Fall-run Chinook Salmon Escapement and the Vernalis flow to export ratio 2.5 years earlier
99
RPA Overview for San RPA Overview for San Joaquin River Flows into Joaquin River Flows into
the Deltathe Delta Flows are based on previous studies Flows are based on previous studies
and historical gaged flows at Vernalis.and historical gaged flows at Vernalis. Numerous iterations of the proposed Numerous iterations of the proposed
flow criteria were run to examine the flow criteria were run to examine the effects of the action before deciding on effects of the action before deciding on a final action.a final action.
RPA is phased in over timeRPA is phased in over time Flexibility in RPA pertaining to water Flexibility in RPA pertaining to water
year type and drought conditionsyear type and drought conditions Continuing adaptive managementContinuing adaptive management
100
NMFS’ OCAP Opinion is located at NMFS’ OCAP Opinion is located at http://swr.nmfs.noaa.gov/ocap.htmhttp://swr.nmfs.noaa.gov/ocap.htm