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NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVER . . . NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVER . . . Gordon E. Moore Gordon E. Moore

NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVERboser/courses/40... · 2007. 11. 13. · i386™ i486™ Pentium ® Pentium ® II Pentium ® IIIIII 256M 512M Pentium ® 4 Itanium ™ 1G 2G 4G 128M 16K MOS

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Text of NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVERboser/courses/40... · 2007. 11. 13. · i386™ i486™ Pentium ®...

  • NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVER . . .NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVER . . .

    Gordon E. MooreGordon E. Moore

  • 300mm Wafer300mm Wafer

  • 1965 Transistor Projection1965 Transistor Projection

  • Integrated Circuit ComplexityIntegrated Circuit ComplexityTransistorsTransistors

    Per DiePer Die

    Source: Intel Source: Intel

    1965 Actual Data1965 Actual Data

    19601960 19651965 19701970 19751975 19801980 19851985 19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010

    1010

    109 MOS Arrays MOS Logic 1975 Actual DataMOS Arrays MOS Logic 1975 Actual Data108

    107

    106

    103

    100

    105

    104

    102

    101

  • Integrated Circuit ComplexityIntegrated Circuit Complexity

    MOS Arrays MOS Logic 1975 Actual DataMOS Arrays MOS Logic 1975 Actual Data

    103

    100

    1010

    TransistorsTransistorsPer DiePer Die

    1965 Actual Data1965 Actual Data109

    1975 Projection1975 Projection108

    107

    106

    105

    104

    102

    101

    Source: Intel Source: Intel

    19601960 19651965 19701970 19751975 19801980 19851985 19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010

  • Integrated Circuit ComplexityIntegrated Circuit Complexity

    1K1K4K4K

    64K64K256K256K

    1M1M

    16M16M4M4M

    64M64M

    4004400480808080

    808680868028680286 i386™

    i386™i486™i486™

    PentiumPentium®®PentiumPentium®® IIII

    PentiumPentium®® IIIIII

    256M256M 512M512M

    PentiumPentium®® 4ItaniumItanium™™

    1G1G 2G2G4G4G

    128M128M

    16K16K

    MOS Arrays MOS Logic 1975 Actual DataMOS Arrays MOS Logic 1975 Actual Data

    103

    100

    1010

    TransistorsTransistorsPer DiePer Die

    1965 Actual Data1965 Actual Data109

    Source: Intel Source: Intel

    MMemoryemory1975 Projection1975 Projection108

    107 MicroprocessorMicroprocessor106

    105

    104

    102

    101

    19601960 19651965 19701970 19751975 19801980 19851985 19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010

  • Minimum Feature SizeMinimum Feature Size

    '90 '95 ’00 '05 '10

    Intel [update 5/20/02]

    ITRS [2001 edition]

    **

    Projected

    Human hair, 100 µm

    Buckyball, 0.001 µm

    Amoeba, 15 µm

    Red blood cell, 7 µm

    AIDS virus, 0.1 µm

    ExamplesExamplesFeature SizeFeature Size

    (microns)(microns)

    100

    10

    1

    0.1

    0.01'60 '65 '70 '75 ’80 '85

    ** Planar Transistor; remaining data points are ICs.** Planar Transistor; remaining data points are ICs.Source: Intel, post ‘96 trend data provided by SIA Source: Intel, post ‘96 trend data provided by SIA International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS)International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS)^ [ITRS DRAM Half^ [ITRS DRAM Half--Pitch vs. Intel “Lithography”]Pitch vs. Intel “Lithography”]

  • Processor Performance (MIPS)Processor Performance (MIPS)

    0.01

    0.1

    1

    10

    100

    1000

    10000

    100000

    1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

    MIPS 386

    8008

    8080

    286

    Pentium®

    Pentium® 2

    8086

    4004

    486

    Pentium® 4

  • Processor Power (Watts) Processor Power (Watts) -- Active & Leakage Active & Leakage

    0.001

    0.01

    0.1

    1

    10

    100

    1000

    1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

    Pow

    er (W

    ) ActiveActive

    LeakageLeakage

  • Processor Supply VoltageProcessor Supply Voltage

    1

    10

    100

    1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

    Pow

    er S

    uppl

    y (V

    olt)

  • 193nm Step and Scan Production Tool193nm Step and Scan Production Tool

  • Lithography Tool Cost ( $ )Lithography Tool Cost ( $ )

    Exp+04Exp+04

    Exp+05Exp+05

    Exp+06Exp+06

    Exp+07Exp+07

    Exp+08Exp+08

    19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010

    Lith

    o T

    ool C

    ost (

    $ )

    Lith

    o T

    ool C

    ost (

    $ )

  • Worldwide Semiconductor RevenuesWorldwide Semiconductor Revenues

    $B$B

    1

    10

    100

    1000

    '68 ’70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 ’90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02'021

    10

    100

    1000

    '68 ’70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 ’90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00

    Source: Intel/WSTS,12/02Source: Intel/WSTS,12/02

  • Transistors Shipped Per YearTransistors Shipped Per Year

    1017

    1016

    1015

    1014

    1013

    1012

    1011

    1010

    109

    Units

    1018

    '68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02

    Source: Dataquest/Intel, 12/02Source: Dataquest/Intel, 12/02

  • Average Transistor Price By YearAverage Transistor Price By Year$$

    10

    1

    0.1

    0.01

    0.001

    0.0001

    0.00001

    0.000001

    0.0000001'68 '70 '72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02

    Source: Dataquest/Intel12/02Source: Dataquest/Intel12/02

  • NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVER . . .NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVER . . .

    BUTBUT

    WE CAN DELAY “FOREVER”WE CAN DELAY “FOREVER”

  • Projected 2000 Wafer, circa 1975Projected 2000 Wafer, circa 1975

    57"

    Moore was not always accurateMoore was not always accurate

  • 1” Wafer Of Planar Transistors, ~19591” Wafer Of Planar Transistors, ~1959

  • The First Planar Integrated Circuit, 1961The First Planar Integrated Circuit, 1961

  • 90 nm Generation Interconnects90 nm Generation InterconnectsM7

    M6

    M5

    M4

    M3

    M2

    M1

    Low-k CDO Dielectric

    Copper Interconnects

    Combination of copper + low-k dielectric now meeting performance and manufacturing goals

  • 1 1 µµmm22 SRAM CellSRAM CellP501 Contact P501 Contact

    19781978

    P1262 SRAM Cell P1262 SRAM Cell 20022002

    P501 Contact P501 Contact 19781978

    P1262 SRAM Cell P1262 SRAM Cell 20022002

    1 1 µµmm

  • 50nm Resist Lines With 193nm Light50nm Resist Lines With 193nm Light--0.2um focus0.2um focus --0.3um focus0.3um focus

    ““best focusbest focus””

    +0.2um focus+0.2um focus +0.3um focus+0.3um focus

  • Minimum Insulator Thickness vs TimeMinimum Insulator Thickness vs Time

    1

    10

    100

    '69 '72 '75 '78 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05

    Oxide ThicknessOxide Thickness(Nanometers)(Nanometers)

    1.0µ1.0µ

    0.35µ0.35µ0.25µ0.25µ

    0.18µ0.18µ0.13µ0.13µ

    ElectricalElectricalPhysicalPhysical

    Source: IntelSource: Intel

  • High K for Gate Dielectrics High K for Gate Dielectrics

    Silicon substrateSilicon substrate

    GateGate

    3.0nm High3.0nm High--kk

    Silicon substrateSilicon substrate

    1.2nm SiO1.2nm SiO22

    GateGate

    Experimental high-k1.6X

    < 0.01X

    90nm process1X1X

    CapacitanceLeakage

    Source: IntelSource: Intel

  • New Materials and Device StructuresNew Materials and Device StructuresExtending Transistor ScalingExtending Transistor Scaling

    GateSilicideAdded

    ChannelStrainedSilicon

    ChangesMade

    FutureOptions

    High-kGate

    Dielectric

    TransistorTransistor

    NewTransistorStructure

  • TriTri--Gate Transistor StructureGate Transistor Structure

    Current

    Lg

    Source

    Drain

    Gate

    Tox

    SiO2

    HSi

    WSi

  • Technology Generations to ComeTechnology Generations to Come

    Double the DensityDouble the DensityReduce Line Width by 0.7xReduce Line Width by 0.7x

    130nm130nm 90nm90nm 60nm60nm 45nm45nm 30nm30nm ??

    2 or 3 years between generations 2 or 3 years between generations

    ~10 ~10 ±± 2 Years2 Years

  • EUV Printed and Etched LinesEUV Printed and Etched Lines

    100 nm, k1 = 0.75 80 nm, k1 = 0.60 50 nm dense, k1 = 0.37

  • Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) LithographyExtreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Lithography

    NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVER . . .Worldwide Semiconductor RevenuesTransistors Shipped Per YearAverage Transistor Price By Year1” Wafer Of Planar Transistors, ~1959The First Planar Integrated Circuit, 19611965 Transistor ProjectionIntegrated Circuit ComplexityIntegrated Circuit ComplexityIntegrated Circuit Complexity300mm Wafer90 nm Generation InterconnectsMinimum Feature Size1 mm2 SRAM Cell50nm Resist Lines With 193nm Light193nm Step and Scan Production ToolMinimum Insulator Thickness vs TimeHigh K for Gate DielectricsProcessor Performance (MIPS)Processor Power (Watts) - Active & LeakageProcessor Supply VoltageNew Materials and Device Structures Extending Transistor ScalingTri-Gate Transistor StructureTechnology Generations to ComeEUV Printed and Etched LinesExtreme Ultraviolet (EUV) LithographyLithography Tool Cost ( $ )NO EXPONENTIAL IS FOREVER . . .