New approach predicts threats torainforests25 May 2017

Photo of a Sunda clouded leopard captured as part of aWildCRU study into their ecology in Malaysian Borneo.Deforestation is one of the biggest threats to cloudedleopards Credit: Andrew Hearn, WildCRU

With rain forests at risk the world over, a newcollaboration is equipping conservationists with thetools to predict and plan for future forest loss.

A new study by scientists from the Universities ofOxford, Montana and the US Forest Servicehighlights novel approaches to tackling deforestation. The team focused their research onBorneo, an island that has lost a staggering 30percent of its forest since the 1970s and is amongthe most biodiverse and threatened on the planet.

The loss of Bornean forests threatens speciessuch as the orangutan, Sumatran rhino, and theSunda clouded leopard; as well as emittingsignificant amounts of carbon dioxide into theatmosphere.

Although focussed on Borneo, the study findings,published in Landscape Ecology, will be useful to

all forest conservationists, and could help tropicalforests around the world.

The study took an innovative approach toconducting their data analysis, using existing mapsof the area and the machine learning algorithm'Random Forests', the team built a multi-scalemodel of deforestation on the island over time (from2000- 2010).

After calculating the historic links between landscape variables and deforestation, the teamused this information to predict the futuredeforestation risk facing Borneo's remainingforests. The goal of this study was to providenational authorities with a tool that would supportthem to recognise potential deforestation threats inthe future.

Map from the study showing the predicted risk of

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deforestation across Borneo's remaining forests. Redareas represent areas of highest risk. Credit: Universityof Oxford

The deforestation risk factors varied from nation tonation, within the island. In Brunei, deforestationwas associated with a highly patchy landscape withmultiple land uses within a 10km radius and a largeamount of forest edge. By contrast, in theMalaysian provinces of Borneo, deforestation wasassociated with a high proportion of lowland mosaiclandscape types within 20km and high proportionsof existing plantations within 30km. This led to adiffuse pattern of risk across Malaysian forests.Finally, in the Indonesian provinces of Borneo,deforestation was associated with areas of lowelevation and a highly patchy landscape, leading tostrong frontiers of deforestation risk.

Ewan Macdonald, joint first author and a researcherin Oxford's Wildlife Conservation Research Unit(WildCRU) said: 'Our results provide the bestinsight to date of where the highest risks lie toBorneo's remaining forests. I hope this will helpgovernments and conservation planners to developeffective strategies to combat these risks and toconserve these beautiful forests for futuregenerations.

'If we understand where risks lurk, we can planaction to counteract them. And these risks are realand imminent for many species, such as thebeautiful and enigmatic Sunda clouded leopard,which are threatened by Borneo's forest loss. Ihope our understanding of the patterns ofdeforestation risk will provide a vital tool indeveloping effective conservation strategies.'

The research findings strongly suggest that thisnovel approach offer a powerful method foranalysing land use change. In addition, it highlightsthe immense and imminent deforestation risk toBorneo's forest biodiversity, with clear spatialpatterns of risk related to topography andlandscape structure that differ between the threenations that comprise Borneo.

Samuel Cushman, joint first author, Director of the

Center for Landscape Science and ResearchLandscape Ecologist at the U.S. Forest ServiceRocky Mountain Research Station said: 'It is wellaccepted that ecological processes interact acrossa range of scales both in time and space; despitethis, very few studies have explicitly accounted forscale dependence in predictive modelling. Thisanalysis highlights the power of multi scaleapproaches to land cover change modelling and wehope it will encourage other researchers to adoptthis approach.'

Professor David Macdonald, Director of Oxford'sWildlife Conservation Research Unit said: 'Borneo'smajestic forests and glorious wildlife are beacons tothe world and what's so exciting about this study isthat the intelligence gained from studying patternsin Borneo, sheds a light to illuminate a way ofhelping tropical forests around the world. Theinnovation lies in a methodology that can be rolledout far beyond Borneo.'

More information: Samuel A. Cushman et al,Multiple-scale prediction of forest loss risk acrossBorneo, Landscape Ecology (2017). DOI:10.1007/s10980-017-0520-0

Provided by University of Oxford

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APA citation: New approach predicts threats to rainforests (2017, May 25) retrieved 29 August 2018 fromhttps://phys.org/news/2017-05-approach-threats-rainforests.html

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