Neural Network for Psychological Criminal Profiling · Forensic Psychiatric development: George Palermo ... the criminal minds studied up to ... Clinical Psychology and the analysis

Neural Network for Psychological Criminal ProfilingNeural Network for Psychological Criminal Profiling

Marco StranoMarco Strano

Italian State PoliceItalian State Police

Psychologist Psychologist

Duke University researcherDuke University researcher

Roberta Bruzzone

International Crime Analysis Association

Psychologist

Duke University Researcher

Department of Mechanical

Engineering and Materials

Scienmce. DURHAM, NC

20042004 M. Strano, R. BruzzoneM. Strano, R. Bruzzone

NNPCP: Decisional investigative NNPCP: Decisional investigative

analysis support systemanalysis support system

Equipe NNPCPEquipe NNPCP

Starting projectStarting project: Marco Strano (Italy): Marco Strano (Italy)

Forensic Psychiatric developmentForensic Psychiatric development: George Palermo (USA): George Palermo (USA)

Forensic Psychology developmentForensic Psychology development: Roberta Bruzzone (Italy): Roberta Bruzzone (Italy)

Forensic MedicineForensic Medicine: Alfonso Terrana e Giacomo Badalamenti (Italy): Alfonso Terrana e Giacomo Badalamenti (Italy)

Software developmentSoftware development: Silvia Ferrari (USA);: Silvia Ferrari (USA);

Internet developmentInternet development: Daniel Durand (France): Daniel Durand (France)


The benefits of increasing intuitive policingThe benefits of increasing intuitive policing

� The benefit of increasing intuitive policing The benefit of increasing intuitive policing

applied to the prevention of criminal conducts, applied to the prevention of criminal conducts,

and for the self-defence of police officers on and for the self-defence of police officers on

duty, has been broadly documented through duty, has been broadly documented through

studies in this field and is the subject of research studies in this field and is the subject of research

being carried out by eminent experts at global being carried out by eminent experts at global

level. level.

(Pinnizzotto A.J., Davis E.F., Miller C.E., 2003, 2004)(Pinnizzotto A.J., Davis E.F., Miller C.E., 2003, 2004)


“ “side” effects in a high-stress situationside” effects in a high-stress situation

� In fact, the improvement of the ability to identify In fact, the improvement of the ability to identify a threat immediately through the development of a threat immediately through the development of emotion-type perceptual channels can cause a emotion-type perceptual channels can cause a remarkable reduction of the officer’s response remarkable reduction of the officer’s response time and offers the possibility to better control time and offers the possibility to better control some typical “side” effects produced by the some typical “side” effects produced by the sudden exposition to a high-stress situation sudden exposition to a high-stress situation ((tunnel vision, tachypsichyatunnel vision, tachypsichya, etc.)., etc.).


Rational policing in the investigative analysisRational policing in the investigative analysis

� However, the development of rational policing However, the development of rational policing

appears to be necessary in investigative appears to be necessary in investigative

analysis activities requiring the investigator to analysis activities requiring the investigator to

have an inductive/deductive logical approach. have an inductive/deductive logical approach.


The role of intuitive and rational policingThe role of intuitive and rational policing

� As a usual trend, the rational assessment of As a usual trend, the rational assessment of

evidence plays the most important role in evidence plays the most important role in

investigative analysis, and intuitive policing investigative analysis, and intuitive policing

dynamics are limited to some cases where the dynamics are limited to some cases where the

emotional channel can represent a further way emotional channel can represent a further way

to access information helpful to the decision-to access information helpful to the decision-

making process (i.e., during close observations making process (i.e., during close observations

or the interrogation of a suspect or witness).or the interrogation of a suspect or witness).


N.N.P.C.P.N.N.P.C.P.a decisional support for rational policinga decisional support for rational policing


Is it possible to replicate the operation Is it possible to replicate the operation

mechanisms of a criminal mind in a lab?mechanisms of a criminal mind in a lab?

� Sociology, Social Psychology, Sociology, Social Psychology,

Individual Psychology and Clinical Individual Psychology and Clinical

Psychiatry rely their diagnosis Psychiatry rely their diagnosis

activity on the consideration that activity on the consideration that

human behaviors are often human behaviors are often

recurrent and have frequent recurrent and have frequent

correlations with deep psycho-correlations with deep psycho-

physiological bases, as well as physiological bases, as well as

behavioral learning mechanismsbehavioral learning mechanisms..


Goal directed actionGoal directed action

� There are always a motivation, a goal There are always a motivation, a goal to pursue (goal directed action) and to pursue (goal directed action) and an action logic (usually aimed at an action logic (usually aimed at saving energy) for each social, group saving energy) for each social, group and individual behavior. and individual behavior.

� Such a logic can apparently be Such a logic can apparently be unclear when the motivational factor unclear when the motivational factor is unknown to the observer due to its is unknown to the observer due to its atypicalness or its rooting in the atypicalness or its rooting in the actor’s profound psychology. actor’s profound psychology.

� As an example, a motivation on a As an example, a motivation on a psycho-pathological basis can reveal psycho-pathological basis can reveal an apparently inconsistent logic.an apparently inconsistent logic.


The aim of the NNPCP projectThe aim of the NNPCP project

� The aim of the NNPCP project is to create an The aim of the NNPCP project is to create an

“intelligent” and self-learning computer system capable “intelligent” and self-learning computer system capable

of receiving and processing information coming from of receiving and processing information coming from

observations of officers who experienced observations of officers who experienced crime scenecrime scene

situations, thus providing hypotheses for the situations, thus providing hypotheses for the

motivational and behavioral construal of a subject (the motivational and behavioral construal of a subject (the

crime perpetrator). crime perpetrator).


criminal mind replication?criminal mind replication?

� Actually, the replication of the exact operation Actually, the replication of the exact operation

mechanism of a criminal mind is a mere illusion, since mechanism of a criminal mind is a mere illusion, since

there is no computer able to explain or anticipate there is no computer able to explain or anticipate

unquestionably the relevant portion of human behavior unquestionably the relevant portion of human behavior

determined by the signification and selection capacity determined by the signification and selection capacity

that is peculiar to the human species. that is peculiar to the human species.


The limit of computerThe limit of computer

� A computer, even though highly sophisticated, A computer, even though highly sophisticated,

can’t anticipate an individual’s adaptive and can’t anticipate an individual’s adaptive and

interactive responses related to contextual interactive responses related to contextual

factors and distant from the behavioral pattern factors and distant from the behavioral pattern

hypothetically correlated to a specific personality hypothetically correlated to a specific personality

profile, or to a given psycho-pathological profile, or to a given psycho-pathological

framework. framework.


Motivativational and Motivativational and

behavioral patternsbehavioral patterns

� However, the NNPCP network However, the NNPCP network

structure, even being unable to structure, even being unable to

replicate exactly the operation of a replicate exactly the operation of a

criminal mind, suggests criminal mind, suggests

motivational and behavioral motivational and behavioral

patterns peculiar to the majority of patterns peculiar to the majority of

the criminal minds studied up to the criminal minds studied up to

now.now.


““a logical behavior for a criminal mind”a logical behavior for a criminal mind”

� In fact, what digital technology can somewhat In fact, what digital technology can somewhat

successfully replicate is a “logical” behavior (for successfully replicate is a “logical” behavior (for

a criminal’s mind) through a statistical-inductive a criminal’s mind) through a statistical-inductive

processing and logical-deductive correlations processing and logical-deductive correlations

that represent, as a whole, how that very that represent, as a whole, how that very

person typically “acts” in a specific situation, person typically “acts” in a specific situation,

providing a decisional support that limits providing a decisional support that limits

(without excluding) fault probabilities.(without excluding) fault probabilities.


NNPCP in not a databaseNNPCP in not a database

� As opposed to traditional databases, As opposed to traditional databases,

the NNPCP system is more similar to the NNPCP system is more similar to

the operation structure of the human the operation structure of the human

mind, having the capability of mind, having the capability of

highlighting veiled correlations highlighting veiled correlations

(knowledge discovery) and learning (knowledge discovery) and learning

from experience in a simplified from experience in a simplified

manner.manner.


NNPCP system functions:NNPCP system functions:

� verifying the reliability of inductive and deductive profiling verifying the reliability of inductive and deductive profiling methods;methods;

� providing investigators with a support for analysis and providing investigators with a support for analysis and investigations;investigations;

� orienting and standardizing the investigative analysis;orienting and standardizing the investigative analysis;� reducing error margins on a probabilistic base reducing error margins on a probabilistic base

recommending the analysis of various tracks and recommending the analysis of various tracks and offering the rational assessment of the several offering the rational assessment of the several opportunities;opportunities;

� reducing investigative decisions on an emotional-reducing investigative decisions on an emotional-irrational base.irrational base.


The approach of Neural networkThe approach of Neural network

� The “typical” approach of a neural The “typical” approach of a neural

network relies on the most likely network relies on the most likely

“trend”, even taking into “trend”, even taking into

consideration other selection consideration other selection

options.options.


The initial phase: NNPCP basic learnThe initial phase: NNPCP basic learn

In the initial phase, the software (network) undergoes a basic training In the initial phase, the software (network) undergoes a basic training (basic learn) by means of the storing of correlations derived from the (basic learn) by means of the storing of correlations derived from the following sources:following sources:

� elements based on deductive logicelements based on deductive logic: for instance the presence of : for instance the presence of sperm in the victim’s body indicates deductively that the suspect is a sperm in the victim’s body indicates deductively that the suspect is a male;male;

� elements based on statistical studieselements based on statistical studies: in the case the victim is less : in the case the victim is less than 1 year old, reliable international studies indicate the victim’s than 1 year old, reliable international studies indicate the victim’s mother as the most likely offender (70%-90% of cases);mother as the most likely offender (70%-90% of cases);

� elements based on deductive logicelements based on deductive logic: the authors’ experience in : the authors’ experience in Clinical Psychology and the analysis of specific literature suggest Clinical Psychology and the analysis of specific literature suggest that some personality traits and some psycho-pathological that some personality traits and some psycho-pathological frameworks (I° and II° axes DSM-IV) are more or less compatible frameworks (I° and II° axes DSM-IV) are more or less compatible with a number of actions performed by the offender that can leave with a number of actions performed by the offender that can leave evidence (traces) on the crime scene or in the coroner report.evidence (traces) on the crime scene or in the coroner report.


The basic trainingThe basic training

� Therefore, the basic training simply puts the Therefore, the basic training simply puts the

system in the position of providing the first system in the position of providing the first

profiles based more on logic that on experience.profiles based more on logic that on experience.

� The system output is characteristic of a neural The system output is characteristic of a neural

network and is expressed in possibility trends network and is expressed in possibility trends

rather than reductionistic certainties. Such a rather than reductionistic certainties. Such a

factor reduces the false positives and the factor reduces the false positives and the

subsequent wrong accusations.subsequent wrong accusations.


The reduction of logical investigative errorsThe reduction of logical investigative errors

� The use of the NNPCP investigative decisional The use of the NNPCP investigative decisional

support reduces first-impression errors, halo support reduces first-impression errors, halo

effects, decision-polarization effects, and any effects, decision-polarization effects, and any

possible prejudice of the investigators, possible prejudice of the investigators,

suggesting the most logical correlations and suggesting the most logical correlations and

simultaneously indicating other tracks, maybe simultaneously indicating other tracks, maybe

less evident and potentially less likely but not less evident and potentially less likely but not

completely inconsistent.completely inconsistent.


Standardized investigation analysisStandardized investigation analysis

� The adoption of a standardized investigation analysis The adoption of a standardized investigation analysis

protocol, essential to the use of the NNPCP, makes the protocol, essential to the use of the NNPCP, makes the

examination on the crime scene more systematic, and examination on the crime scene more systematic, and

encourage the investigator to draw information from encourage the investigator to draw information from

several sources before formulating his/her first several sources before formulating his/her first

hypotheses. hypotheses.


Possibles new scenariosPossibles new scenarios

� Even after such a formulation, the software Even after such a formulation, the software

stimulates the investigator to obtain further stimulates the investigator to obtain further

elements that could disclose new scenarios elements that could disclose new scenarios

or disprove the first suppositions that or disprove the first suppositions that

surfaced in his/her mind.surfaced in his/her mind.


mathematical logic and intuitionmathematical logic and intuition

� The system proposes an investigative approach The system proposes an investigative approach

based on a mathematical logic, yet leaving based on a mathematical logic, yet leaving

enough space to the investigator’s intuition enough space to the investigator’s intuition

during the information retrieval phase.during the information retrieval phase.

NNPCP reduce typical NNPCP reduce typical

investigative errorsinvestigative errors


Logical errorLogical error

� it consists in acquiring a series of personality it consists in acquiring a series of personality

features starting from a feature previously features starting from a feature previously

detected to which they are correlated (i.e., if a detected to which they are correlated (i.e., if a

suspect seems to be well-mannered, then suspect seems to be well-mannered, then

he/she will be probably considered a friendly or he/she will be probably considered a friendly or

inoffensive individual).inoffensive individual).


Indulgence/hostility effectIndulgence/hostility effect

� in this case, benevolent or unfavorable attitudes in this case, benevolent or unfavorable attitudes (also unconscious) can be put into practice (also unconscious) can be put into practice towards a possible suspect, depending on towards a possible suspect, depending on whether his/her manners and look are pleasant whether his/her manners and look are pleasant or not. or not.

� This error can limit the search for possible This error can limit the search for possible evidence against a suspect, underestimating evidence against a suspect, underestimating clues or avoiding deep examinations of potential clues or avoiding deep examinations of potential traces. traces.

� Or else, the attention can be focused on a Or else, the attention can be focused on a subject having nothing to do with the fact subject having nothing to do with the fact (mechanism of the investigation theorem).(mechanism of the investigation theorem).


Halo effect (error)Halo effect (error)

� Halo effect:Halo effect: it is a very common cognitive distortion it is a very common cognitive distortion associated to the normal operation of the human mind associated to the normal operation of the human mind that is inclined to “save energy” and often relies the that is inclined to “save energy” and often relies the construal of reality on few perception items, ignoring or construal of reality on few perception items, ignoring or underestimating other items that can invalidate the “first underestimating other items that can invalidate the “first impression construed”. impression construed”.

� This mechanism, skillfully described by Festinger, can This mechanism, skillfully described by Festinger, can lead an investigator to the formulation of probable lead an investigator to the formulation of probable hypotheses, based on the first elements, without taking hypotheses, based on the first elements, without taking into consideration evidences, even if significant, come into consideration evidences, even if significant, come out afterwards.out afterwards.


Prejudice effect (error)Prejudice effect (error)

� the investigator can be influenced by previous the investigator can be influenced by previous

similar cases (superficial approach owing to an similar cases (superficial approach owing to an

excess of inductive logic), or by consolidated excess of inductive logic), or by consolidated

attitudes (i.e., relating to the suspect’s race attitudes (i.e., relating to the suspect’s race

origins or criminal records).origins or criminal records).


NNPCP advanced training: NNPCP advanced training:

entry of actual cases entry of actual cases � The entry of data derived from actual cases The entry of data derived from actual cases

concerning CS, AV, RML and RI, subsequently concerning CS, AV, RML and RI, subsequently

correlated according to the offender’s (definitely correlated according to the offender’s (definitely

identified and interviewed while in custody) identified and interviewed while in custody)

biosociological, motivational, psychological and biosociological, motivational, psychological and

psychopathological profile, slowly change the psychopathological profile, slowly change the

“certainty” of the initial formulation (on a “certainty” of the initial formulation (on a

statistical base) having the system to generate statistical base) having the system to generate

more and more accurate and reliable outputs.more and more accurate and reliable outputs.


NNPCP advanced training: NNPCP advanced training:

entry of actual casesentry of actual cases

Crime scene analysis

Victim analysis

Coroner report (autopsy)

Others investigativeinformations

Offender interwiew

Case 1

NNPCP

LEARNING


development of the NNPCPdevelopment of the NNPCP

The future development of the NNPCP system is The future development of the NNPCP system is

conceivable through three steps and three time phases:conceivable through three steps and three time phases:

1.1. Initial phase (basic learn) 1-2 yearsInitial phase (basic learn) 1-2 years

2.2. Statistical implementation phase (advanced learn) 2-5 Statistical implementation phase (advanced learn) 2-5

yearsyears

3.3. Operational phase (normal) 5-10 yearsOperational phase (normal) 5-10 years


NNPCP: The importance of geographical NNPCP: The importance of geographical

and cultural factors in criminal profilingand cultural factors in criminal profiling

� The NNPCP software is searchable and updateable via the Internet. The NNPCP software is searchable and updateable via the Internet. The neural network recognizes data/cases from various The neural network recognizes data/cases from various geographical areas and provides its reply according to the region geographical areas and provides its reply according to the region from which the request has been sent. from which the request has been sent.

� Basically, the program is able to evaluate the different cultural Basically, the program is able to evaluate the different cultural variables that can affect the thinking and behavior of a criminal variables that can affect the thinking and behavior of a criminal whose psychological profile is being sought after. whose psychological profile is being sought after.

� The origin zone of real cases that contribute to feed the NNPCP The origin zone of real cases that contribute to feed the NNPCP network is identified through pertinent user-IDs and passwords network is identified through pertinent user-IDs and passwords (assigned to operators located in a given geographical area). (assigned to operators located in a given geographical area).

� As an example, cases from a European country instruct the As an example, cases from a European country instruct the “Europe” profile of the network that is able to recognize and route “Europe” profile of the network that is able to recognize and route them. them.


Specific geographical areasSpecific geographical areas

Obviously, queries from a specific geographical area will Obviously, queries from a specific geographical area will also receive an output based on the corresponding also receive an output based on the corresponding instruction profile. Currently, the software is programmed instruction profile. Currently, the software is programmed to identify the cultural influences related to the areas to identify the cultural influences related to the areas listed below:listed below:

� □ □ Western EuropeWestern Europe� □ □ United StatesUnited States� □ □ South AfricaSouth Africa� □ □ Australia Australia � □ □ ChinaChina� □ □ IndiaIndia� □ □ South AmericaSouth America


NNPCP: Web interface for desktop, NNPCP: Web interface for desktop,

laptop and handheld computerslaptop and handheld computers � The NNPCP software allows the use of a number of The NNPCP software allows the use of a number of

commercial browsers and several types of handheld commercial browsers and several types of handheld computers, both for queries and entries. computers, both for queries and entries.

� Upon first connection to the system, the website Upon first connection to the system, the website nnpcp.org “asks” the user for his/her hardware nnpcp.org “asks” the user for his/her hardware equipment and browsing software. According to the equipment and browsing software. According to the user’s indications, the site gets ready to enable an user’s indications, the site gets ready to enable an appropriate display of the forms on the screen. appropriate display of the forms on the screen.

� The system is designed for the most common browsers The system is designed for the most common browsers (some versions of Explorer and Netscape) and the main (some versions of Explorer and Netscape) and the main palmtop computer trademarks and models.palmtop computer trademarks and models.


NNPCP: The input of actual casesNNPCP: The input of actual cases

� The instruction of the NNPCP neural network is carried out by The instruction of the NNPCP neural network is carried out by entering actual cases, using data derived from the crime scene, the entering actual cases, using data derived from the crime scene, the coroner report, the police report on the victim, and the psychological coroner report, the police report on the victim, and the psychological study of the offender. study of the offender.

� The system exploits all collected data to instruct the neural network The system exploits all collected data to instruct the neural network only after the investigation has been completed and the culprit has only after the investigation has been completed and the culprit has been found out, arrested and interrogated. been found out, arrested and interrogated.

� In particular, when the offender is detected after a long time, it may In particular, when the offender is detected after a long time, it may occur that the investigation remains at a standstill for months or occur that the investigation remains at a standstill for months or even years, so, in order to avoid any mistake, all registered and even years, so, in order to avoid any mistake, all registered and certified users have the opportunity to access only their own cases certified users have the opportunity to access only their own cases (opened by themselves). (opened by themselves).

� In fact, the system recognizes user-IDs and passwords used when In fact, the system recognizes user-IDs and passwords used when opening a case, so the operator wanting to modify (or conclude) a opening a case, so the operator wanting to modify (or conclude) a case after some time, is “offered” that specific case only.case after some time, is “offered” that specific case only.


NNPCP: NNPCP:

Multiple accesses to the same caseMultiple accesses to the same case

� The NNPCP system is able to collect all data The NNPCP system is able to collect all data

relating to the same case, but entered by relating to the same case, but entered by

different operators (i.e., the crime scene different operators (i.e., the crime scene

investigator, the coroner, the psychologist), and investigator, the coroner, the psychologist), and

converge them into the supporting database. converge them into the supporting database.

� Operators will have to use the same “Case Operators will have to use the same “Case

Identification Code” (CIC).Identification Code” (CIC).


NNPCP: NNPCP:

Statistical/analytical use of the systemStatistical/analytical use of the system

� The NNPCP neural network The NNPCP neural network

supporting database is also able to supporting database is also able to

perform the conventional perform the conventional

computation of statistics, calculating computation of statistics, calculating

the incidence of single variables the incidence of single variables

and correlating different variables. and correlating different variables.

� Therefore, the system is exploitable Therefore, the system is exploitable

for research purposes in addition to for research purposes in addition to

the investigative use. the investigative use.


And if NNPCP works……..And if NNPCP works……..

Documents

Neural Network for Psychological Criminal Profiling · Forensic Psychiatric development: George Palermo ... the criminal minds studied up to ... Clinical Psychology and the analysis